Current Portfolio:


BULLISH Play Updates

Brocade Communications - BRCD - close 6.26 change +0.61 stop 6.05 *NEW*

Target(s): 5.95 (hit), 6.20 (hit), 6.37, 6.50
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 6.60, 6.20, 6.00, 5.75, 5.40, 5.00
Current Gain/Loss: +8.87%
Time Frame: 1 to 3 weeks
New Positions: No

Comments:
9/22: Wow! The takeover chatter has regained steam in BRCD and the stock exploded +10.80% higher today. This is one of the reasons I released the trade and it is time to protect profits, or at least take some of them off the table. The chatter today came from IBM as an interested party at $7.50 per share, however, I have nothing to confirm this other than news sources I use. We can not count on this so I suggest we move the stop up to $6.05 and begin to trail it up if BRCD continues to break out. I've added a target of $6.37 which is near today's highs and a place where traders may consider a double top play. I highly suggest taking half or more of your position off the table and see how much more you can get out of the remaining position.

9/21: BRCD traded relatively quiet today. My comments below remain the same.

9/18 & 9/20: I am concerned about BRCD per my 9/15 comments. However, the stock has held its ground and remains in a bull flag. It could just as easily break higher or lower. If a breakout occurs before a pullback I suggest readers begin to look for an exit or tighten stops to protect profits. $5.95 and $6.20 are the primary targets.

Current Position: Long BRCD stock, entry was at $5.75

Options Traders: Long October $6 CALL

Entry on September 10, 2010
Earnings 11/23/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 12.7 million
Listed on September 4, 2010


Noble Corp - NE - close 35.09 change -0.17 stop 32.25

Target(s): 35.90, 36.80, 38.30
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 36.95, 38.50, 33.50
Current Gain/Loss: +1.42%
Time Frame: 1 to 3 weeks
New Positions: Yes, on pullbacks

Comments:
9/21 & 9/22: NE continues to look strong but I am concerned about the overbought conditions in the broader market. A dip could come but I think it will be bought and may give readers another chance to enter. My comments below remain valid.

9/18: NE made a nice recovery today closing +1.7% on the day. The stock remains in a bull flag on its daily chart. If we break higher prior to a pullback I suggest readers look for an exit or tighten stops to lock in profits. I've added $35.90 as a target which is approximately +4% from our entry, while $36.80 is +6%. I'll be looking to take profits or tighten stops as these levels approach.

9/15: NE traded down to $34.36 and bounced hard into the close. Our first target is just under the 200-day SMA and near the 8/4 highs. Our stop is below the converging 20, 50, and 100 day moving averages. My comments from the play release remain the same.

Current Position: Long NE stock, entry was at $34.60

Options Traders: Long October $36.00 CALL

Entry on September 15, 2010
Earnings 10/20/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.7 million
Listed on September 11, 2010


iPath S&P 500 VIX ST Futures - VXX - close 17.06 change +0.27 stop NONE

Target(s): 18.45, 19.25, 20.40
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 17.50, 18.50, 19.75, 20.60
Current Gain/Loss: -3.62%
Time Frame: 1 week
New Positions: Yes

Comments:
NOTE: I view this as an aggressive trade so small position size is recommended. Long VXX is a bearish play on equities, however, it is listed as long play because we are long the underlying instrument.

9/21 & 9/22: I suggest we stick with no stop here and play for a broader market pullback. The bulls look tired and the pullback could come quick as traders will run for the exits to lock in profits. This is when we want to be selling positions and tightening stops. For readers who do not have positions I view the depressed levels in VXX as an opportunity for nice quick trade. Just remember to plan your exit and stick with it. $18.45 and $19.25 are the primary targets.

9/20: I want to temporarily remove the stop in VXX as it is too close to current levels. We will get a spike in volatility in the coming days which is when we will close VXX for a profit, or tighten stops. This is risky move and a judgment call based on the current overbought conditions and low volatility levels. My comments below remain valid.

9/18: My guess is that a breakout prior to a pullback will most likely stop us out in VXX. But I like volatility here as the market is in much need of a healthy pullback. A pullback will likely be fast and furious and VXX should spike 5% to 10% which will give us an opportunity to close this position for a profit. I've added a target of $18.50. Be ready to take profits or tighten stops to protect them as our targets approach. My comments from below have not changed.

Current Position: Long VXX stock, entry was at 17.70

Options Traders: Long October $19.00 CALL

Entry on September 14, 2010
Earnings N/A (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 21 million
Listed on September 13, 2010


BEARISH Play Updates

Alleghany Technologies - ATI - close 44.15 change -0.00 stop 46.82

Target(s): 42.05, 41.00, 40.10
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 46.25, 43.80, 42.00, 40.00
Current Gain/Loss: +1.12%
Time Frame: 1 to 2 weeks
New Positions: Yes, on strength or a breakdown

Comments:
9/22: ATI tried to make a run higher today but the move was stopped dead in its tracks and ATI immediately headed lower and consolidated near those lows the entire day. The stock is hanging onto its 20-day SMA and if it breaks below our targets should be reached relatively quick. I am looking for broader market weakness in the coming days and for ATI to trade down near $42.00 fairly quick.

9/21: Steel producers have been getting downgraded and the sector remains in a downtrend. I suggest we take advantage of an impending correction in the broader market and initiate short positions in ATI, which should send ATI back towards its recent lows. Let's use one of two triggers. If ATI trades up to $44.65 or a break down to $43.78. If triggered at $44.65 our first two targets are -4.5% and -7% lower. Our stop is above a recent downtrend line that began in late July.

Suggested Position: Short ATI stock, entry was at $44.65

Entry on September 22, 2010
Earnings: 10/20/2010 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.7 million
Listed on September 20, 2010


Deckers Outdoor Corp - DECK - close 46.52 change -1.53 stop 47.10 *NEW*

Target(s): 47.40, 46.15, 45.25
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 50.25, 45.00, 43.50
Current Gain/Loss: +5.66% Time Frame: 1 to 2 weeks
New Positions: No

Comments:
9/22: The sell-off in DECK continued today as the stock lost -3%. We came within 2 pennies of our $46.10 target so this has been raised 5 cents. If DECK trades down to $46.15 take profits or tighten stops to protect them as this could be construed as a double bottom set-up by some traders. I've also added another target of $45.25 which could get hit if the broader market weakness picks up. Regardless, we need to protect profits so I've lowered the stop all the way down to $47.10 which guarantees up a nice profit.

9/21: We are short DECK as of the today's open. The stock proceeded to sell-off -2.50% today and looks headed towards our targets just below. My comments from the play release below remain the same.

9/20: The retail sector has experienced an impressive string of consecutive advances and is due for pullback with the broader market. DECK has overhead resistance and is sitting just below a downtrend line that began with its 52-week highs in June. I suggest readers initiate short positions at current levels and play for -4% to -6.5% pullback. Our stop will be above the downtrend line and it will be adjusted after we are in the trade.

Current Position: Short DECK stock, entry was at $49.31

Entry on September 21, 2010
Earnings: 10/21/2010 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 859,000
Listed on September 20, 2010


CLOSED BEARISH PLAYS

Freeport-McMoRan - FCX - close 84.51 change +1.52 stop 84.55

Target(s): 80.20, 79.40, 78.00
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 84.25, 76.50, 75.00
Final Gain/Loss: -4.45%
Time Frame: 1 week
New Positions: Closed

Comments:
9/22: We were taken out of FCX today for a disappointing and bad loss. The money printing promises by the Fed sparked commodities and materials stocks yesterday afternoon and it continued today. FCX has broken through an uptrend line and prior resistance from last fall. The stock will correct at some point but I was simply too early. Hopefully, readers are on board with some of our other winners which takes some of the sting out of this loss.

9/21: What a day, FCX gave up all of yesterday's big advance and then some by the time noon rolled around. However, after the FOMC announcement the stock rallied hard into the close. All told, FCX traded in a 3% range today and closed down 36 cents. Traders holding long positions in FCX had a scare today and if selling picks up again we could see a sharp move lower. This is when we should consider exiting positions or tightening stops as our targets approach.

9/20: A Goldman Sachs upgrade on FCX to buy from neutral sent the stock +2% higher today. As a result, our position suffered greatly and now we need to look for an exit. This move higher in FCX can not continue but it appears any dips will most likely get bought. I've added an immediate target of $80.20, while $79.40 will fill a gap higher. FCX should make it down to these levels on a pullback and is where I suggest readers close positions or tighten stops to protect capital. This could all come at once on one big down day.

Current Position: Short FCX stock, entry was at $80.95

Options Traders: Long October $75.00 PUT

Annotated chart:

Entry on September 15, 2008
Earnings: 10/20/2010 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 10 million
Listed on September 14, 2010