Current Portfolio:


BULLISH Play Updates

Clean Energy Fuels - CLNE - close 14.73 change +0.24 stop 13.90

Target(s): 16.15, 16.80
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 17.00, 16.20, 14.80
Current Gain/Loss: -2.77%
Time Frame: 1 to 3 weeks
New positions: Yes

Comments:
9/29: CLNE bounced today but we need more follow through. I'm looking for a move back up to its recent swing high and possibly 200-day SMA if the market cooperates.

9/28: The sell-off in CLNE the past few days has been disappointing. The stock has a lot of support in the $14.00 area. I think the stop may be a little too tight so I would like to lower it to $13.90 for now to account for a possible spike down.

Current Position: Long CLNE stock, entry was at $15.15

Options Traders: Long November $16.00 CALL

Entry on September 23, 2010
Earnings 11/9/2010 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 973,000
Listed on September 13, 2010


Manitowoc Co., Inc - MTW - close 10.66 change +0.27 stop 9.65

Target(s): 11.00, 11.25, 11.50
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 11.50, 11.25, 11.00, 10.00, 9.70
Current Gain/Loss: +4.31%
Time Frame: 1 to 3 weeks
New Positions: Yes

Comments:
9/29: MTW continued bouncing higher today as the stock tacked on another +2.6%. be prepared to take profits or tighten stops to protect them as our targets approach. My comments below have not changed.

9/28: MTW erased yesterday's losses and then some, gaining +3.38% on the day. I am looking for the stock to make a higher high if the broader market continues higher. Our three targets are all below the 200-day SMA.

9/25: MTW has pulled back to its rising 20-day and 50-day SMA's which I think will be a spring board for a move higher up towards its 200-day SMA. I suggest readers initiate long positions at current levels. Our targets range from +6.5% to +12% higher from current levels. Our stop is below both of the aforementioned SMA's and a prior support level from June.

Current Position: Long MTW stock, entry was at $10.22

Options Traders: Long November $11.00 CALL

Entry on September 27, 2010
Earnings 10/28/2010 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.9 million
Listed on September 25, 2010


Noble Corp - NE - close 34.97 change +1.30 stop 32.85

Target(s): 35.90, 36.80, 38.30
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 36.95, 38.50, 33.50
Current Gain/Loss: +1.07%
Time Frame: 1 to 3 weeks
New Positions: Yes

Comments:
9/29: Our patience has paid off so far as this position is back in positive territory. The stock surged higher today gaining nearly +4%. NE now sits on an intraday downtrend line but with a bull flag right below it. If the broader goes higher from here our targets should easily be easily. Our stop is in the right place if things reverse.

9/28: NE has tested the backside of its broken primary downtrend line and its 50-day SMA from above, but it has closed below its 20-day SMA the past two days. I like new positions here with a tight stop of $32.85. If we get a pullback in the broader market our stop will likely get hit.

Current Position: Long NE stock, entry was at $34.60

Options Traders: Long October $36.00 CALL

Entry on September 15, 2010
Earnings 10/20/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.7 million
Listed on September 11, 2010


Range Resources Corp - RRC - close 38.75 change +1.81 stop 34.40

Target(s): 39.25, 40.00, 41.50
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 42.00, 40.75, 39.50, 37.38, 34.70
Current Gain/Loss: +3.39%
Time Frame: 1 to 3 weeks
New Positions: No

Comments:
9/29: RRC reached our trigger as it broke higher this morning so we are long the stock at $37.48. RRC gained almost +5% on the day and we have already gained +3.39% in the position. There is resistance near current levels so we could get a retracement of some of today's gains. Protecting profits is recommended, especially if RRC continues motoring higher without a retracement. I've adjusted the 2nd and 3rd targets slightly to account for the declining 100-day SMA and a gap fill.

9/28: We are sticking with an energy play in a natural gas driller tonight. RRC surged higher and closed above its 50-day SMA today on heavy volume, while call activity was huge in the October and November strikes. RRC is forming an ascending triangle on its daily chart and I suggest readers play for a breakout. Let's use a trigger of $37.48 to initiate long positions in the stock. This is above the high on 9/10. More nimble traders may want to try to time a pullback to the $36.00 area. If triggered, our first two profit targets are +5% and +8% higher.

Suggested Position: Long RRC stock if it trades up to $37.48.

Options Traders: Buy November $39.00 CALL, current ask $1.55

Entry on September 29, 2010
Earnings 10/18/2010 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.2 million
Listed on September 25, 2010


iPath S&P 500 VIX ST Futures - VXX - close 16.93 change +0.33 stop 16.23

Target(s): 17.55, 18.45, 19.25
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 17.50, 19.75, 20.60
Current Gain/Loss: -4.35%
Time Frame: 1 to 2 weeks
New positions: Yes

Comments:
NOTE: I view this as an aggressive trade so small position size is recommended. Long VXX is a bearish play on equities, however, it is listed as long play because we are long the underlying instrument.

9/29: Volatility broke an intraday downtrend line but still need to get above Wednesday's highs, which will come if there is broader market weakness. My comments below remain the same.

9/28: Volatility carried into this morning but reversed lower as the bulls stepped in pushing stocks back toward their highs. I want to add a target of $17.55 which should be considered as a place to take profits or tighten stops to protect them. We have a tight stop which will most likely get hit if the broader market continues higher in the coming days.

Current Position: Long VXX stock, entry was at 17.70

Options Traders: Long October $19.00 CALL

Entry on September 14, 2010
Earnings N/A (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 21 million
Listed on September 13, 2010


BEARISH Play Updates

Alleghany Technologies - ATI - close 46.35 change +0.60 stop 46.82

Target(s): 45.00, 44.65, 43.75, 43.05
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 46.25, 43.80, 42.00, 40.00
Current Gain/Loss: -3.81%
Time Frame: 1 to 2 weeks
New Positions: No

Comments:
9/29: I have been advocating exiting positions on weakness and there have been opportunities, but ATI has simply stopped short of our revised targets. Our +4% gain last Thursday has now turned into nearly a -4% loss. $46.60 has proven to be resistance the past few days but if there is more broader market strength our stop will likely get hit. There is a chance ATI could open near our stop tomorrow. If this happens I suggest we place the protective stop above the opening 15 or 30 minute range. This allows us to measure the true strength or weakness in the stock and often times keeps us in the trade looking for a better exit.

9/28: It appeared our first target of $44.65 was going to be reached this morning but ATI, and the broader market, reversed on a dime. The stock came within 20 cents of our first target and I have added a $45.00 target to account for the rising 20-day SMA. If strength continues in the coming days our stop will likely get hit.

Suggested Position: Short ATI stock, entry was at $44.65

Entry on September 22, 2010
Earnings: 10/20/2010 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.7 million
Listed on September 20, 2010


Stifel Financial Corp - SF - close 46.57 change -1.70 stop 48.60 *NEW*

Target(s): 46.05 (hit), 45.05, 44.05
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 50.00, 48.00, 45.75, 45.00, 43.50
Current Gain/Loss: +2.00%
Time Frame: 1 to 2 weeks
New positions: Neutral

Comments:
9/29: SF collapsed -3.5% today and our first target was reached. Let's move the stop down to $48.60. If the broader market corrects SF should head back to test its lows.

9/28: SF bounced off of its 20-day SMA today but remains under a fairly important intraday resistance level between $48.25 and $49.25. Tighter stops could be considered between $48.60 and $49.40. I think SF will print $46.05 prior to any significant move higher as long as the broader market pulls back.

9/25: SF rebounded with the broader market. I still believe this sector will suffer from the lack of retail trading but if the broader market heads higher SF most likely will too. Readers should use caution.

Suggested Position: Short SF stock if it trades to $48.45 or $47.52

Options Traders: Buy November $45.00 PUT, current ask $1.50

Entry on September 23, 2010
Earnings: 11/09/2010 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 250,000
Listed on September 22, 2010