Current Portfolio:


BULLISH Play Updates

Itron, Inc - ITRI - close 60.86 change +1.03 stop 55.80

Target(s): 63.75, 65.00
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 42.00, 40.75, 39.50, 37.38, 34.70
Time Frame: 1 to 3 weeks

Comments:
10/5: Let's remain patient and wait for the pullback in ITRI to enter long positions. I want to raise the trigger 15 cents to $59.50.

10/4: We are adding a long candidate engaged in the smart grid technology industry. This will also provide more balance in our portfolio as we currently have a firm short bias. ITRI has broken a downtrend line from its April highs and looks poised to make a run higher. The stock is consolidating above its 50-day and rising 20-day SMA's which should also provide support. ITRI has solid support near $59.00 so let's use a trigger of $59.50 (updated) to enter long positions. More nimble traders may want to consider a deeper pullback to the $58.00 area but I'm not convinced the stock will trade there prior to moving higher. If triggered our profit targets are +7% and +9.5% higher.

Suggested Position: Long ITRI stock if it trades up to $59.50

Options Traders: Buy November $60.00 CALL, current ask $1.60

Entry on October XX
Earnings 10/28/2010 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 412,000
Listed on October 4, 2010


Logitech Intl. - LOGI - close: 17.39 change: +0.37 stop: 15.75

Target(s): 18.50, 19.50
Key Support/Resistance Areas: about every 50-cents (17.50, 17.00, 16.50)
Current Gain/Loss: Unopened
Time Frame: 3 to 4 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see trigger

Comments:
10/5: The market is not following through on any dips. Buying LOGI at this level is a higher risk situation so I suggest we remain patient. Our trigger of $16.60 remains the same.

10/2: LOGI spent the better part of a year consolidating lower in a long, slow trend of lower highs and lower lows. It looks like the momentum has changed in the last couple of months. More recently LOGI has surged from $16.00 and created a new higher-high this past week. The move was fueled by short covering. LOGI has about 16% short interest. I believe there is more upside in store but we don't want to chase LOGI at current levels. Wait for a little dip and use a trigger to launch bullish positions at $16.60. We'll put the stop loss near the 50-dma. Our targets are $18.50 and $19.50. FYI: The recent rally has created a new point and figure chart buy signal with a $23 target.

Trigger to open positions @ $16.60

Suggested Position: Buy LOGI stock @ $16.60, stop $ 15.75

Entry on October xx
Earnings Date 10/27/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.6 million
Listed on October 2nd, 2010


Noble Corp - NE - close 33.76 change +0.62 stop 32.85

Target(s): 33.95, 34.70, 35.90
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 36.95, 38.50, 33.50
Current Gain/Loss: -2.43%
Time Frame: 1 to 3 weeks
New Positions: Yes

Comments:
10/5: I believe there is more selling to come in NE and think the stock trades lower before going much higher. I suggest readers remain cautious. Honor stops or use bounces as opportunities to exit positions. 33.95 and 34.70 are the immediate exit targets to consider.

10/2: Ouch! NE was downgraded again. That's the second time in two days. The early morning bounce failed at its 10-dma overhead but so far traders are still buying the dip at its rising 50-dma. Short-term indicators are suggesting the stock is rolling over. I'm worried that NE is headed for $32, which would means we would get stopped out at $32.85. Since we're already looking for a market pull back I'm not suggesting new bullish positions in NE at this time.

Current Position: Long NE stock, entry was at $34.60

Options Traders: Long October $36.00 CALL

Entry on September 15, 2010
Earnings 10/20/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.7 million
Listed on September 11, 2010


iPath S&P 500 VIX ST Futures - VXX - close 16.43 change -0.93 stop 16.23

Target(s): 17.55, 18.45, 19.25
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 17.50, 19.75, 20.60
Current Gain/Loss: -7.18%
Time Frame: 1 to 2 weeks
New positions: Neutral

Comments:
NOTE: I view this as an aggressive trade so small position size is recommended. Long VXX is a bearish play on equities, however, it is listed as long play because we are long the underlying instrument.

10/5: A surprise shift in monetary policy suggesting significant quantitative easing by the Bank of Japan caused volatility to collapse today. This provides more liquidity in the market and traders are feeling more and more comfortable buying stocks. If there is follow through tomorrow we will likely be stopped out of the position.

10/4: VXX is moving in our direction as the market sold off today. I suggest picking your exit and sticking with it. My primary targets are $18.45 and $19.25. If a market correction gains momentum VXX may surge higher than these targets but tightening stops and protecting profits at these levels is suggested. 10/2: The stock market posted +10% gains in September but upward momentum has stalled. Odds of a market pull back on the back of some disappointing Q3 earnings are pretty high and thus the VXX has a lot of potential to move higher. I don't see any changes from our previous comments, although I would be tempted to aim higher and set my first target at $18.75 and my second target at $19.90.

Current Position: Long VXX stock, entry was at 17.70

Entry on September 14, 2010
Earnings N/A (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 21 million
Listed on September 13, 2010


BEARISH Play Updates

FLIR Systems - FLIR - close 25.28 change +0.22 stop 27.55

Target(s): 24.25, 21.00
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 28.00, 27.00, 26.50, 25.50, 24.00
Current Gain/Loss: Unopened
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see trigger

Comments:
10/5: FLIR was downgraded today to Outperform from Strong Buy at Raymond James and the stock was a big underperformer compared to its peers and the broader market. There is resistance at $25.50. If FLIR breaks through this level it should trade up towards our trigger of $26.20 fairly. More nimble traders may want to try a short trade at current levels.

10/4: The stock got hit hard today closing down -2.64%. I suggest we lower the trigger to enter short positions to $26.20 which should act as a brick wall. If we are patient the trade should pay off.

10/2: In August shares of FLIR broke down from a huge consolidation pattern. The market's widespread rally in September lifted FLIR toward resistance but the stock couldn't breakout. Now shares are under performing their peers and the major indices. Aggressive traders could launch positions now. I think we'll get a better entry point if we wait for a bounce. I'm suggesting a trigger to launch bearish positions at $26.50. If triggered we'll use a stop loss at $27.55. Our first target is $24.25. Our longer, more aggressive target is $21.00 although you may not want to hold over the earnings report! FYI: The point and figure chart is bearish with a $17 target.

Trigger to open positions @ $26.20

Suggested Position: Short FLIR stock @ $26.20, stop loss @ $27.55

Entry on October xx
Earnings Date 10/21/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.7 million
Listed on October 2nd, 2010


PowerShares QQQ Trust - QQQQ - close 49.66 change +1.18 stop 50.05

Target(s): 47.25
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 49.75-50.00, 47.25
Current Gain/Loss: -1.33%
Time Frame: 1 to 2 weeks
New Positions: Yes, with tight stops

Comments:
10/5: The Q's surged more than +2% higher today. Our stop is just overhead so our loss will be limited if it is hit. If we are taken out watch $50.65 as another possible shorting opportunity with a double top bearish set-up.

10/2: Over the next three months I'm actually bullish on the market and the NDX (and QQQQ). Yet short-term this tech-heavy index (ETF) is very overbought and due for a correction. Normally trying to call tops and bottoms can be very dangerous but after a week of moving sideways it looks like the upward momentum is gone. I'm suggesting small bearish positions now. We'll use a stop loss at $50.05. Our short-term target is $47.25 (near the 38.2% Fib retracement). Once the QQQQ has reached our target I would switch directions and start looking for a bullish entry point somewhere in the $47-46 zone. My time frame for this pull back is less than two weeks. Readers may want to consider trading the options instead of the ETF.

Current Position: Short QQQQ stock, entry was at $49.01
Options Traders: Long November 47.00 PUT

Entry on October 4, 2010
Earnings Date N/A (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 77.6 million
Listed on October 2, 2010


CLOSED BEARISH PLAYS

Stifel Financial Corp - SF - close 47.20 change +1.90 stop 48.60

Target(s): 46.05 (hit), 45.05, 44.05
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 50.00, 48.00, 45.75, 45.00, 43.50
Final Gain/Loss: +5.20%
Time Frame: 1 to 2 weeks
New positions: Closed

Comments:
10/4: SF gapped higher this morning and quickly sold off to our 2nd target of $45.05. We have closed the position for a +5.20% gain. SF proceeded to close nearly +5% off of its lows. With the news out of the Bank of Japan closing positions and protecting profits is the right thing to do.

10/2: The oversold bounce from the first half of September continues to fade. At the moment SF is clinging to short-term support near $46.00. When earnings start to come out this stock is likely to decline. Trading volumes for the third quarter were terrible and that doesn't bode well for a brokerage stock like SF.

9/30: SF tried to make run higher today but fell flat on its face. If the broader market corrects our more aggressive targets should be easily be reached. Our stop is above the 9/27 high so if we are wrong our loss will be small.

Closed Position: Short SF stock at $45.05, entry was at $47.52

Annotated chart:

Entry on September 23, 2010
Earnings: 11/09/2010 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 250,000
Listed on September 22, 2010


Financial Sector SPDR - XLF - close 14.73 change +0.33 stop 14.75

Target(s): 13.85, 13.55
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 15.00, 14.60, 14.20, 13.70, 13.30
Final Gain/Loss: -2.01%

Time Frame: 1 to 2 weeks
New Positions: Closed

Comments:
10/5: XLF broke out of a consolidation area from the past 8 days and hit our stop for a small loss. There has been no follow through lower in the broader market so we will step aside for a small loss. The next resistance area is $15.00.

10/02 (James): I don't see a lot of changes from our previous comments. The financial stocks have been a drag on the market but in the last few days stocks have been chopping sideways, including the XLF. The technical picture is a little muddy so I'm less include to launch new positions at current levels. Do I think financials will trade lower on a market pull back? Yes. Do I think the XLF will retest its lows near $13.35, of that I'm not very confident.

9/30: XLF spiked higher at the open but tanked the remainder the day, closing at its lows. We are short the ETF at $14.46. Any broader market correction should send XLF below $14.00 fairly quick and we have a tight stop if we are wrong. I've adjusted the targets up 10 cents each. My comments below have not changed.

Closed Position: Short XLF stock at $14.75, entry was at $14.46

Annotated chart:

Entry on September 30, 2010
Earnings: N/A (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 74 million
Listed on September 29, 2010