Current Portfolio:


BULLISH Play Updates

Boyd Gaming - BYD - close 8.54 change +0.12 stop 7.28

Target(s): 8.95, 9.20, 9.50
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 9.60, 9.25, 8.75, 8.00, 7.40
Time Frame: 1 to 2 weeks

Comments:
10/12: BYD came within 9 cents of trigger yesterday and has bounced ever since. The stock looks bullish but considering the overbought conditions I would rather buy it on a pullback. Let's raise the trigger to $8.20 use the dip as a buying opportunity.

10/9: August Casino revenue was up +11.5% y/y in Las Vegas which bodes well for other regions following. BYD operates in Las Vegas and other parts of the country. The stock broke out on Friday on huge volume and I believe it will head towards $9.00 in the next week or two. I would like to see some retracement and use $8.10 (prior resistance area from mid-August) as a trigger to enter long positions. Our first two targets are +10% and 13.5% higher than the trigger.

Suggested Position: Long BYD stock if it trades to $8.20

Entry on October xx
Earnings 10/27/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.8 million
Listed on October 9, 2010


Itron, Inc - ITRI - close 62.02 change -0.05 stop 57.80

Target(s): 63.75, 65.00
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 66.00, 64.00, 60.50, 59.00, 57.00
Time Frame: 1 to 3 weeks

Comments:
10/12: Dips to just above $61.00 in ITRI continue to get bought. The stock traded to $61.22 today before bouncing. Let's remain patient and keep our trigger at $61.00. ITRI's rising 20-day SMA (currently just below $60) should provide a spring board for a move higher.

10/9: Not much has changed in my comments from Thursday. The dip was bought again in ITRI. The stock's rising 20-day SMA (currently $59.58 and rising about 24 cents per day) should act as support. This puts the 20-day between $60.50 and $61.00 later this week. I think this play has some potential and suggest we raise the trigger $61.00 and use the dip as a buying opportunity. I've also raised the stop to $57.80. If triggered, our targets are +4.5% and +6.5% higher.

Suggested Position: Long ITRI stock if it trades down to $61.00

Options Traders: Buy November $60.00 CALL, current ask $1.60

Entry on October XX
Earnings 10/28/2010 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 412,000
Listed on October 4, 2010


PerkinElmer, Inc - PKI - close 23.14 change -0.13 stop 22.35

Target(s): 24.25, 24.85, 25.35
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 25.40, 24.40, 23.30, 22.50
Current Gain/Loss: +0.17%
Time Frame: 1 to 2 weeks
New Positions: Yes

Comments:
10/12: We got the dip in PKI to $23.10 so we are long the stock. My comments below remain valid.

10/11: PKI has been in a solid uptrend since its July lows and is finding resistance at $23.30. The stock is forming a high tight ascending triangle and looks poised to breakout and retest its 52 week highs which are more than +8% higher than current levels. Conservative traders may want to wait for a break above today's high and enter positions at $23.50, while more nimble traders could try to time a pullback into the $23.00 area or its 20-day SMA. Officially, we'll use a trigger of $23.10 (just above today's low) or $23.50 (just above today's high), whichever occurs first. The stock is consolidating above its 20-day SMA (currently $22.81 and rising) and an upward trend line. Our stop is just below the recent swing low which will keep losses under control if the pattern fails.

Current Position: Long PKI stock, entry was at $23.10

Entry on October 12, 2010
Earnings 11/4/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.4 million
Listed on October 11, 2010


Thompson Creek Metals - TC - close 11.39 change +0.00 stop 10.45

Target(s): 11.75, 12.40
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 12.60, 11.80, 11.00, 10.55
Current Gain/Loss: +2.15%
Time Frame: 1 to 3 weeks
New Positions: Yes, on pullbacks

Comments:
10/12: TC sold off to $11.15 early this morning, bounced, and then made another low at $11.11 which was one penny from our desired trigger at $11.10. When the stock bounced at $11.15 and then turned back to test it the position was opened early at $11.15. TC bounced nicely and closed above its 200-day SMA for the 2nd straight day. My guess is that TC will continue to consolidate at these levels and any dips can be viewed as buying opportunities.

10/9: It seems there is no stopping the basic materials sector as the lackluster employment report is sure to be followed by additional stimulus. Molybdenum is high strength metal and is used to make aircraft parts, electrical contacts, industrial motors and filaments to name a few. Technically, TC broke through resistance near $11.00 and touched its 200-day SMA on Friday. I would like to see the stock retrace some of those gains and suggest we enter long positions with a trigger of $11.10 which is -18 cents lower than Friday's close. Our targets are about +6% and +11.5% higher than our trigger.

Current Position: Long TC stock, entry was at if it trades $11.10

Options Traders: Buy November $11.00 CALL, current ask $1.00

Annotated chart:

Entry on October XX
Earnings 10/4/2010 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.7 million
Listed on October 9, 2010


BEARISH Play Updates

FLIR Systems - FLIR - close 25.16 change +0.47 stop 27.55

Target(s): 24.25, 21.00
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 28.00, 27.00, 26.50, 25.50, 24.00
Current Gain/Loss: Unopened
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see trigger

Comments:
10/10: It looks like the bounce in FLIR may actually happen. We are looking for a move up towards its 20-day SMA to enter short positions. Our trigger remains $25.85.

10/9: We may have missed the move in FLIR. I can not chase it lower at these levels. Let's see what the stock give us in the next few days. If it can manage a bounce back up towards $26.00 it will find a brick wall at its declining 20-day SMA and prior resistance. Let's adjust the trigger down 5 cents to $25.85.

Trigger to open positions @ $25.85

Suggested Position: Short FLIR stock @ $25.85, stop loss @ $27.55

Entry on October xx
Earnings Date 10/21/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.7 million
Listed on October 2nd, 2010


Microsoft - MSFT - close 24.83 change +0.24 stop 25.60

Target(s): 23.50, 23.10
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 25.50, 24.75, 23.75, 23.00
Current Gain/Loss: -1.35%
Time Frame: 1 to 2 weeks
New Positions: Neutral

Comments:
10/12: MSFT has been drifting higher over the past several days. The stock touched its 100-day SMA for the first time since 5/13. Any broader market correction should send the stock back towards our targets.

10/9: There is not much to report on MSFT. The stock is consolidating below its converging moving averages and looks like it wants to turn back down. The stock tends to be a slow mover but if the market corrects it has the potential to go quick. I think our stop is in the right place and suggest we give this some time to work. My comment below remain valid.

10/7: Microsoft hit our target to enter short positions at $24.50. The New York Times released an article today speculating that MSFT may make a bid for Adobe (ADBE). More often the acquiring company (MSFT) struggles on news of an acquisition. However, investors have been hammering MSFT to use their cash to better position the company for growth. If this turns out to be true it could be what investors want to hear which could spark buying of the stock. We have a stop in place if that in fact happens but readers should use caution.

Suggested Position: Short MSFT stock if it trades to $24.65

Options Traders: Long November $24.00 PUT

Entry on October 7, 2010
Earnings: 10/28/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 60 million
Listed on October 5, 2010


Xilinx, Inc. - XLNX - close 26.83 change +0.22 stop 27.42

Target(s): 25.00, 24.60, 24.30
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 26.75, 26.00, 25.30, 25.00, 24.00
Current Gain/Loss: -3.99%
Time Frame: 1 to 2 weeks
New Positions: Yes

Comments:
10/12: XLNX touched its primary downtrend line today so this is the logical spot for the stock to turn lower. There were mixed earnings results from the semi's after the bell. Intel beat slightly while Linear Technology lowered guidance. We'll have to see how the sector trades tomorrow. Our stop is in place if XLNX breaks higher. My comments below remain valid.

10/9: The dips keep getting bought in XLNX. Semi's can be volatile so watch for a potential quick sell-off. I suggest being ready to take profits or tighten stops to protect them as our targets approach.

Current Position: Short XLNX stock, entry was at $25.80

Options Traders: Long November $25.00 PUT

Entry on October 7, 2010
Earnings: 10/20/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 7.3 million
Listed on October 6, 2010


CLOSED BEARISH PLAYS

PowerShares QQQ Trust - QQQQ - close 50.11 change +0.34 stop 50.05

Target(s): 47.25
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 49.75-50.00, 47.25
Current Gain/Loss: -2.12%
Time Frame: 1 to 2 weeks
New Positions: Yes, with tight stops

Comments:
10/12: The rip higher this afternoon after the FOMC minutes hit our stop in QQQQ so we are flat the position for a relatively small loss. I was worried about the reaction and sure enough we were taken out. Nonetheless, the broader indexes keep chipping away at resistance but the trap door could open at any time. I would be inclined to stick with this position if you still have it and use weakness to trail stops down.

10/9 & 10/11: There are not many changes to my comments. We have a tight stop overhead if QQQQ breaks out. However, I would be leery of any opening gap higher which could be sold into. I am also leery of possible volatility with the FOMC minutes released Tuesday afternoon as it feels like we could get a false breakout. As such, this is how I suggest readers manage the trade. Temporarily remove the stop and wait for the open. If there is a gap higher near our stop, place a new protective stop above the opening range. This provides us the chance to measure the true strength or weakness of QQQQ. Often times this will keep you in the trade and looking for a better exit. At these elevated levels it would not surprise me to see a gap higher and an immediate sell-off so we don't want to have a GTC stop in place that gets taken out if QQQQ is only going to head lower. This is just a scenario. If the markets are surging higher and convincingly break the opening range then we need to get out of the way.

Closed Position: Short QQQQ stock at $50.05, entry was at $49.01

Annotated chart:

Entry on October 4, 2010
Earnings Date N/A (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 77.6 million
Listed on October 2, 2010