Current Portfolio:


BULLISH Play Updates

Boyd Gaming - BYD - close 7.99 change +0.30 stop 7.42 *NEW*

Target(s): 8.65, 8.95, 9.20
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 9.60, 9.25, 8.75, 8.00, 7.40
Current Gain/Loss: -2.56%
Time Frame: 1 to 2 weeks
New Positions: Yes

Comments:
10/23: BYD has continued to bounce after finding support at its 20-day SMA and key long term support/resistance level in the $7.40 to $7.60 area. BYD gained almost +4% on Friday. Resistance is at $8.00 and also keep an eye on the 100-day SMA near $8.30. Let's raise the stop to $7.42.

10/20 & 10/21: BYD is finding support at its 20-day SMA and key long support/resistance level in the $7.40 to $7.60 area. This is a logical place to for the stock to make a higher low and head back to at least retest its recent highs. If it does this we can book a decent in the +5% range. I've added a lower target to reflect this strategy. Launching new bullish positions at these levels with a tight stop below makes sense a lot of sense to me.

10/19: BYD looked promising this morning but completely lost it in the afternoon. I suggest we keep our stop in place for now and not panic out of the position. BYD is still above the 20-day and 50-day SMA's and has support near current levels.

Current Position: Long BYD stock, entry was at $8.20

Annotated weekly chart:

Entry on October 14, 2010
Earnings 10/27/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.8 million
Listed on October 9, 2010


Companhia Brasileira de Distribuicao - CBD - cls: 36.31 chg: -0.85 stop: 34.75

Target(s): 39.00
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 35.00, 36.50, 39.00
Current Gain/Loss: -1.20%
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
New Positions: Yes

Comments:
10/23: CBD has been drifting lower since the stock split on Monday. The stock has support near current levels and down to the $35.00 level. I would view dips as buying opportunities.

10/16: (James) Shares of Brazilian grocery food chain CBD appear to be in breakout mode. The Brazilian economy continues to grow and the surging middle class likes to spend. This has pushed CBD toward all-time highs. Now normally I wouldn't list a stock in the $70s as a Premier Investor play. However, CBD will see a 2-for-1 split on Monday morning (Oct. 18th). The stock should open around $38.20. I am suggesting we look to buy CBD on a pull back. Broken resistance near $73.50 (post-split will be $36.75) should be new support. Thus, use a trigger at $36.75 to open bullish positions. We'll use a stop loss at $34.75 since the $70 level (post-split: $35) should be additional support.

If triggered our first target is $39.00 (pre-split $78.00). Our second, longer-term target is $42.00. The inverse (bullish version) head-and-shoulders pattern would suggest a bullish target of $88 (post-split would be $44). The Point & Figure chart is very bullish with a price target of $101.00 (post-split $50.50).

Current Position: Long CBD stock, entry was at $36.75

Annotated weekly chart:

Entry on October 19, 2010
Earnings Date 11/10/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 545,000
Listed on October 16th, 2010


Hansen Natural Corp. - HANS - close: 51.68 change: +1.39 stop: 44.95

Target(s): 50.00, 52.50,
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 45.00, 47.50, 50.00, etc.
Current Gain/Loss: Unopened
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see below for details

Comments:
10/21 & 10/23: We are waiting for our trigger at $48.25. I like the set-up and suggest we remain patient. We could get a pullback in the coming days and using the dips as buying opportunities is the right strategy. I would not chase the stock at current levels. Let's be patient.

10/16: (James) HANS is probably best known for their Monster brand energy drinks. The stock has been a monster in its own right and shares have been a popular momentum trade over the years. Well once again shares of HANS are surging higher. We'd like to hop on board but we don't want to chase it at these levels. I'm suggesting a trigger to buy the stock (or call options) at $48.25 since broken resistance at $48.00 should be new support. I'm suggesting a stop loss at $44.95 but we may want to raise the stop closer to the rising 50-dma (technical support) currently near 46.20.

If triggered at $48.25 our first target is $51.00. Our second target is $52.50. FYI: The point & figure chart is very bullish and is forecasting a long-term target of $78.

Suggested Position: BUY the stock at $48.25

- or -

BUY the November $50.00 calls (on a dip at $48.25).

Annotated weekly chart:

Entry on October xx
Earnings Date 11/04/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.5 million
Listed on October 16, 2010


Itron, Inc - ITRI - close 60.69 change +0.32 stop 58.45

Target(s): 63.00, 64.00, 65.00, 66.00
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 66.00, 64.00, 60.50, 59.00, 57.00
Current Gain/Loss: -0.18%
Time Frame: 1 to 3 weeks
New Positions: Yes

Comments:
10/23: ITRI is struggling at its 20-day and 100-day SMA's. A dip towards the 50-day SMA ($59.00 area) is not out of the question. I continue to view dips as buying opportunities. We are targeting a move back up to its recent highs at $63.00 with incremental $1 moves higher from there, possibly all the way up to $66.00.

10/21: The dip to $59.50 in ITRI was bought today but it still looks like it may be headed for its 50-day SMA near $59.00, which is also a key long term support level. This is a good place to launch new bullish positions.

10/20: I don't see many changes to my comments below. Look for a move back up to $63.00 which is when we will begin to tighten stops and look for a possible break out higher. ITRI may want to test its 50-day SMA which is near $59.00 so we may need to exhibit some patience.

Current Position: Long ITRI stock, entry was at $60.25

Annotated weekly chart:

Entry on October 19, 2010
Earnings 10/27/2010 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 412,000
Listed on October 4, 2010


Jeffries Group, Inc - JEF - close 23.83 change -0.32 stop 22.75

Target(s): 25.10, 25.75
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 25.85, 25.25, 24.25, 23.50, 23.00
Current Gain/Loss: -0.58%
Time Frame: 3 to 4 weeks
New Positions: Yes

Comments:
10/23: JEF printed a bearish engulfing candlestick on Friday and I doubt the stock will be able to swim against the current of a broader market correction, should a correction happen. The stock gapped higher on Thursday and then Friday it retraced the gain and closed the gap. The 50-day SMA and prior resistance is just below near $23.50. The stock and price action look good to me but we are likely going to need the market to continue its march higher. For now, I continue to view dips as buying opportunities.

10/19: Investment Banks are beginning to trade well, especially those that have little risk exposure to mortgage backed securities like many of the money center banks. JEF should do well in this era of corporate advisory services and M&A activity. JEF could even be a takeover candidate themselves. I like JEF to trade higher as long as the stock breaks out above today's highs. Technically, The volume patterns look good and JEF has closed above short term resistance from the past couple of weeks at $23.50 for two consecutive days. I suggest we enter long positions if the stock trades to $23.91 which is above today's highs. Our stop will be $22.75 and our targets are near the September and August highs, which are +5% and +7.5% from our trigger.

Suggested Position: Long JEF stock if it trades to $23.91
Options Traders: Buy December $24.00 CALL, current ask $1.10

Annotated weekly chart:

Entry on October 21, 2010
Earnings Date 1/20/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.1 million
Listed on October 19, 2010


Mylan Inc. - MYL - close: 19.38 change: +0.21 stop: 18.45

Target(s): 19.80, 20.45, 21.00, 22.00
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 18.50, 19.00, 20.00, 20.50
Current Gain/Loss: +0.21%
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
New Positions: Yes, on pullbacks

Comments:
10/23: MYL closed above its 200-day SMA and at a new high not seen since 5/28. Everything looks good here but we need to see follow through. We several targets and will begin to tighten stops as they approach.

10/20 & 10/21: MYL is playing moving average ping pong, bouncing back and forth between the 200-day (above) and rising 20-day (below). The stock is hanging tough and looks bullish. Now we need follow through.

10/18: MYL got hit hard today on news that a preliminary injunction against GlaxoSmithKline and Apotex pertaining to the generic drug Paxil CR was denied in US District Court of New Jersey. After the initial reaction the selling subsided and MYL bounced after the company said they are appealing the decision. Regardless of the outcome, this is a new development and readers should use caution, especially considering the overbought broader market conditions. Our stop is in the right place if MYL breaks lower as this will signal a break in trend.

Note: I do consider this an aggressive trade so keep your positions somewhat smaller. Buy the stock now (or the calls) and target a move to $20.00, $21 and beyond. FYI: The P&F chart is forecasting at $33 target.

Current Position: Long MYL stock, entry was at $19.25
Options Traders: Long November $20.00 calls

Annotated weekly chart:

Entry on October 18, 2010
Earnings Date 10/28/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.5 million
Listed on October 16, 2010


PerkinElmer, Inc - PKI - close 23.43 change +0.18 stop 22.32 *NEW*

Target(s): 23.60, 23.90, 24.40
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 25.40, 24.40, 23.30, 22.50, 22.15
Current Gain/Loss: +1.43%
Time Frame: 1 to 2 weeks
New Positions: Yes

Comments:
10/23: PKI has bounced back nicely after the sell-off early last week. The stock close above a long term support/resistance level of $23.30 and is now dealing with a two month long congestion area (b/w $23.30 and $24.45) from March/April. I've adjusted the targets and suggest readers use strength as an opportunity to exit positions or tighten stops to protect profits. We've moved the stop up to $22.32.

10/21: PKI came within 6 cents of our first target. If the broader market holds up we should have no issues reaching our targets. Our stop is below the 200-day SMA and two support levels.

10/20: We are right back to where we started with PKI and are breakeven on the trade as the stock rebounded nicely today. My comments below remain valid.

Current Position: Long PKI stock, entry was at $23.10

Annotated weekly chart:

Entry on October 12, 2010
Earnings 11/4/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.4 million
Listed on October 11, 2010


TJX Companies - TJX - close 44.86 change +0.00 stop 43.35

Target(s): 46.95, 48.20
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 48.50, 47.00, 45.40, 43.50
Current Gain/Loss: Unopened
Time Frame: 2 to 4 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see entry point below

Comments :
10/21 & 10/23: $45.40 has acted like a brick wall in TJX since late September. If the stock breaks above the high and tight bullish ascending triangle it should move higher quickly. We are playing the breakout with a trigger of $45.52.

10/19: I suggest we play this conservative and keep the set-up in place with a breakout trigger of $45.52. A dip towards $43.75 would catch my eye as another possible bullish entry point.

10/18: TJX has been consolidating above its rising 20-day SMA for the past couple of weeks and is forming an ascending triangle along the way. Resistance is $45.40 and I suggest readers use a breakout to enter long positions. Let's use a trigger of $45.52 and target a move back towards the stock's 52-week highs. Our targets are $46.95 and $48.20 and our stop is $43.35. More nimble traders may want to try to time an entry on a pullback in the $44.50 area.

Suggested Position: Long TJX stock if it trades to $45.52

Annotated weekly chart:

Entry on October xx
Earnings Date 11/16/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3 million
Listed on October 18, 2010


BEARISH Play Updates

Pulte Group, Inc - PHM - close 8.23 change +0.15 stop 8.66 *NEW*

Target(s): 7.20, 6.75
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 9.00, 8.00, 7.00, 6.50
Current Gain/Loss: -1.10%
Time Frame: 1 to 3 weeks
New Positions: Yes

Comments:
10/23: PHM is consolidating below all of its moving averages and feel like it is ready to take a nose dive. On the intraday charts the stock is forming symmetrical triangle in that prices are coiling for a break out, which in reality could be higher or lower. I expect it to be lower as we are due for healthy broader market correction. However, I've lowered the stop to $8.66 in case we are wrong. $7.70 is an area readers may want to consider exiting positions or tightening stops if PHM gets there.

10/21: We are short PHM at $8.15. There was a surge at the open but the bounces keep getting smacked down. A break below $7.92 should send this lower in a hurry. My comments below remain the same.

10/20: We are adding a short candidate to the model portfolio to balance our positions a bit. I consider this a more aggressive play so please use small position size. PHM saw some unusual option activity on the put side across various strikes in the November, December and January months. In total, 24,000 contracts traded and 75% of them were bought on the ask. PHM is having problems with their debt and their costs to borrow are rising as their credit spreads widen. I suggest we initiate a small short position now and target a move towards the 2008 lows which are about -10% and -13% lower than current levels. Our initial stop will be above the recent highs. I have provided a weekly chart below.

Note: We will most likely experience some volatility in this trade so please use appropriate position size to manage risk. I also like an option play here so that your risk is better defined.

Suggested Position: Short PHM stock, entry was at $8.15 at current levels Option Traders: Long December $8.00 PUT

Annotated weekly chart:

Entry on October 21, 2010
Earnings Date 10/28/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.5 million
Listed on October 16th, 2010