Current Portfolio:


BULLISH Play Updates

Boyd Gaming - BYD - close 8.46 change +0.20 stop 7.65 *NEW*

Target(s): 8.65, 8.95, 9.20
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 9.60, 9.25, 8.75, 8.00, 7.40
Current Gain/Loss: +0.73%
Time Frame: 1 to 2 weeks
New Positions: Yes, on pullbacks

Comments:
10/28: BYD and other casino related names did well today on the heels of a string earnings report from Las Vegas Sands. BYD gained +2.4% on the day. However, I suggest we do not get too married to this position considering the overbought broader market conditions. Let's raise the stop to $7.65, which is below the 20-day SMA and primary upward trend line. $8.65 and $8.95 are the primary targets and I suggest readers take profits or tighten stops to protect them as these levels approach.

10/27: BYD was up more than +4% in early trading but the sellers stepped in pushing the stock lower to close virtually unchanged. Our first target was missed by 4 cents. $8.00 and the rising 20-day SMA (just below $8) should offer solid support and any dips. $8.65 and $8.95 are the primary targets.

10/26: BYD traded within yesterday's range and is consolidating near its 100-day SMA. I am looking for a continued move higher and view dips as buying opportunities. There is solid support near $8.00.

Current Position: Long BYD stock, entry was at $8.20

Entry on October 14, 2010
Earnings 10/27/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.8 million
Listed on October 9, 2010


Citigroup Inc - C - close 4.17 change -0.00 stop 3.78

Target(s): 4.60, 4.75, 4.90
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 4.30, 4.00
Current Gain/Loss: +0.24%
Time Frame: 3 to 4 weeks
New Positions: Yes

Comments:
10/28: C traded in a tight range today and closed flat on the day. My comments below have not changed.

10/27: We are long C as of today's open at $4.16. The stock should find support at its rising 20-day SMA which is currently at $4.12, or at $4.00 if that is breached. I view dips as buying opportunities.

10/26: I suggest we open positions in C at current levels tomorrow. Conservative traders may want to wait for a close above $4.30 before launching positions. However, I am comfortable getting the nearly 3% discount at current levels. We'll raise the stop to $3.78. Use small position size to manage risk.

10/25: C is trading very well in comparison to its peers (BAC, JPM) and has been a relative out performer. I think the stock is poised to break over $4.30 and there is limited resistance overhead. I suggest readers initiate long positions on a dip or a breakout. We'll use a trigger of $4.11 on a dip and $4.34 on a breakout. Our initial stop will be $3.60 and it will be adjusted once the position is opened.

Suggested Position: Long C stock
Options Traders: Buy December $4.00 CALL, current ask $0.30

Entry on October xx
Earnings Date More than two months (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 523 million
Listed on October 25, 2010


Companhia Brasileira de Distribuicao - CBD - cls: 37.52 chg: +0.80 stop: 34.75

Target(s): 38.80
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 35.25, 36.50, 38.00, 39.00
Current Gain/Loss: +2.10%
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
New Positions: Yes

Comments:
10/28: CBD broke out higher from the intraday bear pennant that was being formed and looks headed back towards its highs. The stock gained +2.18% on the day. I see resistance at $38.00 so this could be an area for a pullback. I've adjusted the target down 20 cents to $38.80 which a few cents below the 52-week high closing price.

10/27: CBD is finding support at $36.50 and its rising 20-day SMA. I am concerned the stock could break lower with a broader market correction. The next level of support is near $35.25 and its 50-day SMA. I would view dips as buying opportunities.

10/25 & 10/26: CBD has found support at its 20-day SMA and regained all of Friday's losses. However, the stock may be in a bear flag and if the broader market corrects CBD may trade down $35.25 which I view as buying opportunity. Tighter stops could be considered at $35.90 which is below Friday's low.

Current Position: Long CBD stock, entry was at $36.75

Entry on October 19, 2010
Earnings Date 11/10/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 545,000
Listed on October 16th, 2010


Hansen Natural Corp. - HANS - close: 51.38 change: +0.48 stop: 46.90

Target(s): 50.00, 52.50,
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 45.00, 47.50, 50.00, etc.
Current Gain/Loss: Unopened
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see below for details

Comments:
10/27 & 10/28: We need to remain patient and use dips as buying opportunities. $49.25 could also be considered an entry point. This is near the swing low on 10/19 after HANS broke out higher. If readers are considering call positions on a dip I suggest buying the December strikes. I've also raised the stop to $46.90.

10/16: (James) HANS is probably best known for their Monster brand energy drinks. The stock has been a monster in its own right and shares have been a popular momentum trade over the years. Well once again shares of HANS are surging higher. We'd like to hop on board but we don't want to chase it at these levels. I'm suggesting a trigger to buy the stock (or call options) at $48.25 since broken resistance at $48.00 should be new support. I'm suggesting a stop loss at $44.95 but we may want to raise the stop closer to the rising 50-dma (technical support) currently near 46.20.

If triggered at $48.25 our first target is $51.00. Our second target is $52.50. FYI: The point & figure chart is very bullish and is forecasting a long-term target of $78.

Suggested Position: BUY the stock at $48.25

- or -

BUY the December $50.00 calls (on a dip at $48.25).

Entry on October xx
Earnings Date 11/04/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.5 million
Listed on October 16, 2010


Jeffries Group, Inc - JEF - close 24.00 change +0.14 stop 22.75

Target(s): 25.00, 25.75
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 25.85, 25.25, 24.25, 23.50, 23.00
Current Gain/Loss: +0.13%
Time Frame: 3 to 4 weeks
New Positions: Yes

Comments:
10/28: JEF looks to be on the verge of breaking out of its bull flag and should easily send the stock up towards $24.65 if the broader market cooperates. Readers may want to consider this level as a possible exit point which will produce almost a +3% gain. I continue to like the volume patterns in JEF and if the stock closes above its 200-day SMA we should be able to book a nice winner.

10/27: JEF is finding support at its 50 & 100-day SMA's which is the first time the stock has tested these since breaking higher last week. This is a logical spot for JEF to bounce to another high. Our first target is $25.10 but readers may also want to consider $24.65 as a possible exit point. This should produce almost a +3% gain.

10/26: After breaking out on 10/20 JEF has retraced all of the gains and is finding support near its 50-day SMA, which is also at a support level of $23.50. I view this dip as a buying opportunity with a tight stop below. The pullback over the past three days looks like a bull flag to me.

Current Position: Long JEF stock, entry was at $23.97
Options Traders: Long December $24.00 CALL

Entry on October 21, 2010
Earnings Date 1/20/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.1 million
Listed on October 19, 2010


Patriot Coal - PCX - close 13.39 change -0.09 stop varies

Target(s): 15.25, 15.95
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 15.30, 14.15, 13.00, 12.50
Current Gain/Loss: Unopened
Time Frame: 3 to 4 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see entry point below

Comments:
10/27 & 10/28: We are playing for a breakout in PCX with a trigger of $14.17. However, I think readers should consider bullish positions if there is a sell-off in the stock to $12.70, which I am adding as a second trigger. If we are triggered at $12.70 we'll use a stop of $11.80.

10/26: As signs of inflation begin to build momentum so are resource stocks. Many coal stocks have lagged compared to other names in the commodities space, but they are showing signs of momentum. PCX is forming a bullish cup and handle pattern and its volume patterns point to building bullish momentum. The stock surged higher on heavy volume in early October and pulled back on lighter volume. Now the stock is finding support at its rising 20-day SMA. I suggest readers use a trigger of $14.17 to enter bullish positions on a breakout. If the stock pulls back prior to breaking out we may consider a lower entry, perhaps near support at $13.00. We are looking for a move up towards the stock's 200-day SMA, or about $1.00 to $1.75 higher than our current trigger.

Note: I consider this an aggressive trade and readers should expect volatility. Please use proper position size to manage risk.

Trigger: $14.17 (stop = $12.90) - or - $13.70 (stop = $11.80)

Suggested Position: Long PCX stock at the above triggers
Options Traders: Buy December $14.00 CALL

Entry on October xx
Earnings Date More than two months (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.6 million
Listed on October 26, 2010


PerkinElmer, Inc - PKI - close 23.26 change -0.08 stop 22.32

Target(s): 23.60 (hit), 23.90, 24.40
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 25.40, 24.40, 23.30, 22.50, 22.15
Current Gain/Loss: +0.69%
Time Frame: 1 to 2 weeks
New Positions: No

Comments:
10/28. Not much has changed with PKI as the stock is stubbornly trading around a long term pivot level at $23.30. Our target of $23.60 has been hit several times but the stock has been rejected from a breakout. The 20-day SMA and upward trend line from July are providing support, but now we need follow through to the upside. We are going to need help from the broader market but if things fall apart we have a tight stop is in place which will control losses.

10/26 & 10/27: PKI has found resistance at $23.75 with a possible bearish double top with the highs on 10/13. There is long term support at current levels, the rising 20-day SMA and upward trend line just below (both near $23.15). If our second target of $23.90 is reached I suggest readers use the strength to book gains or tighten stops to protect them.

10/25: PKI reached our first target today. The stock needs to take out today's high or it could pullback as a bearish double top pattern may be forming. There is support at $23.30, the rising 20-day SMA and upward trend line. Tighter stops could be considered near $22.75. I continue to view dips as buying opportunities.

10/23: PKI has bounced back nicely after the sell-off early last week. The stock close above a long term support/resistance level of $23.30 and is now dealing with a two month long congestion area (b/w $23.30 and $24.45) from March/April. I've adjusted the targets and suggest readers use strength as an opportunity to exit positions or tighten stops to protect profits. We've moved the stop up to $22.32.

Current Position: Long PKI stock, entry was at $23.10

Entry on October 12, 2010
Earnings 11/4/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.4 million
Listed on October 11, 2010


TJX Companies - TJX - close 46.44 change +0.16 stop 44.55 *NEW*

Target(s): 46.70, 47.20, 47.95
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 48.50, 47.00, 45.40, 43.50
Current Gain/Loss: +2.02%
Time Frame: 2 to 4 weeks
New Positions: No

Comments :
10/28: TJX pulled a repeat of yesterday. After gapping higher the stock immediately sold off to support and bounced hard into the close. I am concerned about the bearish head and shoulders pattern forming on its hourly chart, while there is also a hanging man candle on its daily chart. These tend to signal reversals so I want to raise the stop to $44.55 which will keep losses small if there is in fact a reversal. $46.70 and $47.20 are my primary targets and suggest readers consider taking profits and/or tightening if they are reached.

10/27: after a pullback to support at $45.40 this morning, TJX closed near the highs from yesterday. The stock continues to look bullish but I am concerned of about the overbought conditions in the broader market. $46.70 and $47.20 are my primary targets and suggest readers consider taking profits and/or tightening if they are reached.

Suggested Position: Long TJX stock if it trades to $45.52

Entry on October xx
Earnings Date 11/16/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3 million
Listed on October 18, 2010


BEARISH Play Updates

Leggett & Platt, Inc. - LEG - close 20.36 change -0.09 stop 21.75

Target(s): 19.80, 19.20
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 22.00, 21.70, 21.50, 21.30, 20.55, 19.70, 19.00
Current Gain/Loss: +0.63%
Time Frame: 1 to 3 weeks
New Positions: Yes

Comments:
10/28: LEG is consolidating near its lows after the post-earnings sell off. Any broader market weakness should send the stock towards our targets in a hurry. I still like new short positions, especially on bounces.

10/25: LEG triggered our entry for bearish positions at 20.49 as the selling continued and the stock broke below Friday's low. We are looking for a quick move towards the July and August lows. I've lowered the stop $21.75 and raised our targets by 10 cents each. My comments from the play release are below.

10/23: Shareholders of LEG have been taken on a wild ride as of late. After plummeting -24% from its May highs to August lows, the stock went up in a straight line until 10/13, gaining +26% along the way. On Thursday after the bell the stock reported earnings and they were terrible. The company missed earnings, missed revenues, and lowered guidance. The company said that "certain markets primarily related to residential furnishings, weakened noticeably in the third quarter and as a result, third quarter sales were lower than those in the second quarter, which rarely occurs." The stock lost -8% on Friday and I do not believe the selling is done. I suggest we capitalize on the momentum and initiate short positions if LEG trades to $21.46 (above Friday's high and near the 200-day SMA) or breaks below $20.49 (below Friday's low). Conservative traders may want to wait for the break down. All of the moving averages are overhead and I suspect there are still many unhappy investors looking to dump the stock. We'll place a tight initial stop overhead at $22.05.

Trigger: $21.46 or $20.49

Suggested Position: Short LEG stock
Options Traders: BUY the December $20.00 PUT, current ask $0.75

Entry on October 25, 2010
Earnings Date: More than two months (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.5 million
Listed on October 23, 2010


Mechel OAO - MTL - close 22.83 change -0.31 stop 24.47

Target(s): 22.30, 21.25, 20.25
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 24.25, 24.00, 23.60
Current Gain/Loss: Unopened
Time Frame: 1 to 3 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see trigger

Comments:
10/28: I was hoping for a bounce up towards MTL's 200-day SMA but it doesn't appear we are going to get it as the stock is hanging out in a bear flag. Let's lower the trigger to $23.30 which near is today's highs. My comments from the play release below remain valid.

10/27: The steel sector has come under pressure as earnings and guidance have failed to impress investors. MTL finds itself in a bear flag and is consolidating under its 200-day SMA, while its 50-day and 20-day SMA's are just overhead. Conservative traders will want to see the stock break below $22.25 before launching bearish positions. However, considering the overbought broader market conditions initiating positions on a bounce sets up a very good risk reward trade. There is solid resistance in the $23.60 to $24.20 area so I suggest launching bearish positions at $23.55 (lowered to $23.30). Our stop will be above the 20-day SMA at $24.47 (which is rolling over and declining). If triggered our first two targets are -5% and -9% lower.

Trigger: $23.30

Suggested Position: Short MTL stock
Options Traders: BUY the December $23.00 PUT, current ask $1.50, estimated ask at entry $1.30

Entry on October XX
Earnings Date: More than two months (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.1 million
Listed on October 27, 2010


CLOSED BULLISH PLAYS

Mylan Inc. - MYL - close: 20.50 change: +0.25 stop: 18.65

Target(s): 19.80 (hit), 20.40 (hit), 21.00, 22.00
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 18.50, 19.25, 19.80, 20.50
Final Gain/Loss: +5.97%
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
New Positions: Closed

Comments:
10/28: We used the strength since yesterday morning in MYL to our advantage and closed positions for a +6% gain. The stock is entering a congestion area from April and May which was just before the stock cratered -20%. This is a solid resistance area and I suspect there will be a pullback, especially considering the broader market's overbought conditions. $19.80, $19.25, and $19.00 are areas to watch for on dips. Tighter stops should be considered in the $20.15 to $20.30 area with looser stops around $19.70.

10/27: MYL made a remarkable +5.7% recovery from its lows today and gained +3.3% on the day. Our current gain is better than 5%. If MYL heads higher before pulling back readers should consider taking profits and possibly re-entering positions on a pullback. $19.80 should offer solid support on dips.

10/26: I do not see many changes from my comments last night. MYL is consolidating near its highs. If the stock can break above $19.80 there is little resistance until $20.50. If our second target of $20.40 is reached I suggest readers use the strength to book gains or tighten stops to protect them.

Note: I do consider this an aggressive trade so keep your positions somewhat smaller. Buy the stock now (or the calls) and target a move to $20.00, $21 and beyond. FYI: The P&F chart is forecasting at $33 target.

Closed Position: Long MYL stock at $20.40, entry was at $19.25

Annotated chart:

Entry on October 18, 2010
Earnings Date 10/28/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.5 million
Listed on October 16, 2010


CLOSED BEARISH PLAYS

Pulte Group, Inc - PHM - close 7.86 change -0.08 stop 8.15

Target(s): 7.85 (hit), 7.30, 7.00
Key Support/Resistance Areas: 9.00, 8.00, 7.00, 6.50
Final Gain/Loss: +3.68%
Time Frame: 1 to 3 weeks
New Positions: Yes

Comments:
10/28: PHM hit our immediate target of $7.85 multiple times today. Per last night's updates we have closed the position for a small +3.68% gain. The market simply refuses to correct right now and I am leery of holding positions over the FOMC meeting next week. The Fed could easily announce some sort of QE2 that will benefit the home builders, i.e. resuming open market purchases of mortgage-backed securities. I thought we would see a more meaningful correction prior to next week but it's not happening so it is time to take the gain and protect capital. If positions are open I would keep a tight stop near $8.15. Looser stops could be considered near $8.40 which is above the 50-day SMA.

10/27: This is the lowest close PHM has printed since 8/26. The stock looks like it could crater towards $7.30 but there is support at $7.70 and the housing data is not getting worse, which may be the signs of a bottoming process. I suggest readers protect profits and begin looking for an exit. I've raised the target to $7.85 and suggest we book the small gain if we get there. I'm also going to lower the stop to breakeven at $8.15 and suggest we get out of the way if PHM bounces from here.

Note: We will most likely experience some volatility in this trade so please use appropriate position size to manage risk. I also like an option play here so that your risk is better defined.

Closed Position: Short PHM stock at $7.85, entry was at $8.15

Annotated chart:

Entry on October 21, 2010
Earnings Date 11/3/10 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.5 million
Listed on October 16th, 2010