Editor's Note:
A downgrade and worries that Congress might decide to cap credit-card fees sent AXP sharply lower. Our AXP play has been stopped out. We're also exiting the SKS play early.

-James

Current Portfolio:


BULLISH Play Updates

Alcoa Inc - AA - close: 14.77 change: +0.21

Stop Loss: 13.45
Target(s): 14.95, 15.95
Current Option Gain/Loss: +12.6%
Time Frame: 8 to 10 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
12/20 update: The rally in AA continues in spite of some dollar strength today. Shares are hitting new multi-month highs and another strong day could push AA to our first target at $14.95. I am raising our stop loss to $13.45.

Current Position: Long AA stock @ 13.18

Entry on November 16 at $13.18
Earnings Date 01/10/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 26.1 million
Listed on November 6th, 2010


Automatic Data Processing - ADP - close: 46.77 change: -0.09

Stop Loss: 45.95
Target(s): 49.75, 52.50
Current Option Gain/Loss: unopened
Time Frame: 10 to 12 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see trigger

Comments:
12/20 update: ADP is still consolidating sideways. We are waiting for a breakout past resistance near $47.00. I am suggesting a trigger to open bullish positions at $47.25. If triggered we'll use a stop loss at $45.95. Our first target is $49.75. While the trend is up ADP doesn't move super fast so this could take several weeks.
FYI: The Point & Figure chart for ADP is forecasting a bullish price target of $66.00.

Buy-the-breakout Trigger @ $47.25

Suggested Position: Buy ADP stock @ $47.25

- or -

Buy the 2011 February $50.00 call (ADP1119B50)

*Note: just because the Feb. $50 calls are cheap don't go overboard and buy too many. They're cheap for a reason. ADP may not hit $50 by Feb. expiration.

Entry on December xx at $xx.xx
Earnings Date 01/26/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.8 million
Listed on December 16th, 2010


Alaska Air Group - ALK - close: 57.67 change: +0.18

Stop Loss: 54.90
Target(s): 59.75
Current Option Gain/Loss: + 5.03
Time Frame: 8 to 9 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
12/20 update: ALK managed to extend its gains and hit new ten-year highs near $58. On a very short-term basis, broken resistance near $57.00 could be support. The $56 and $55 levels should offer stronger support. I am not suggesting new bullish positions at this time.

Current Position: Long ALK stock @ $54.91

- or -

Long the 2011 January $60 calls (symbol: ALK1122A60) entry @ $1.60

Entry on November 22 at $54.91
Earnings Date 01/27/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 331 thousand
Listed on November 20th, 2010


Popular Inc. - BPOP - close: 2.89 change: +0.03

Stop Loss: 2.69
Target(s): 3.40, 3.95
Current Option Gain/Loss: - 4.6%
Time Frame: 12 to 16 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
12/20 update: The banking indices managed another bounce. BPOP's rebound amounted to a +1.1% gain. I remain cautious here given the stock's recent weakness. I'm not suggesting new positions at this time.

Current Position: Long BPOP stock @ $3.00

- or -

Long the 2011 April $3.00 calls (BPOP1116D3) Entry @ $0.34

12/18: New stop loss @ 2.75

Entry on December 14 at $ 3.00
Earnings Date 01/20/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 11.7 million
Listed on December 11th, 2010


Citigroup Inc. - C - close: 4.71 change: +0.01

Stop Loss: 4.49
Target(s): 5.00, 5.35
Current Option Gain/Loss: - 0.4%
Time Frame: 10 to 12 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
12/20 update: Citigroup only gained a penny on Monday but shares gapped open at $4.73 before consolidating sideways the rest of the session. The banking indices are still rebounding. I am suggesting bullish positions in the $4.75-4.55 zone. I do consider this an aggressive, higher-risk entry point and trade. Our first target is $5.00. Our second, longer-term target is $5.35. I am suggesting that readers keep their position size small to limit their risk.

Current Position: Long Citigroup stock @ $4.73

- or -

Long the 2011 March $5.00 calls (C1119C5) Entry @ $0.20

Entry on December 20 at $ 4.73
Earnings Date 01/18/11 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 688 million
Listed on December 18th, 2010


Companhia Brasileira de Distribuicao - CBD - close: 40.92 change: +0.32

Stop Loss: 36.75
Target(s): 44.95, 49.00
Current Option Gain/Loss: + 1.6%
Time Frame: 10 to 12 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
12/20 update: Traders bought the morning dip toward $40.00 and its 40-dma. Volume continues to get lighter. Readers could still use dips into the $40.00-38.00 zone as a bullish entry point but you might be better off waiting for the dip and then initiating new positions on the bounce.

FYI: We have a wide stop because CBD can be so volatile. Bear in mind this is a higher-risk trade.

Current Position: Long CBD stock @ $40.25

Entry on November 23 at $40.25
Earnings Date 03/02/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 608 thousand
Listed on November 20th, 2010


Check Point Software Technologies - CHKP - close: 45.64 change: -0.03

Stop Loss: 43.95
Target(s): 47.25, 49.75
Current Option Gain/Loss: + 1.2%
Time Frame: 8 to 10 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
12/20 update: Our play is now open. Some early morning weakness pushed CHKP to a low of $44.69. Our trigger to buy the stock or call options was hit at $45.10. If you missed our buy-the-dip entry you could still buy the bounce now. Our first target is $47.25. Our second, longer-term target is $49.75. This could take several weeks. Investors will have to decide whether or not they are willing to hold over CHKP's earnings in late January.

Current Position: Long CHKP stock @ $45.10

- or -

Long the 2011 April $45.00 calls (CHKP1116D45) Entry @ $2.55

Entry on December 20 at $45.10
Earnings Date 01/26/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.4 million
Listed on December 18th, 2010


City National Corp. - CYN - close: 60.80 change: -0.34

Stop Loss: 54.75
Target(s): 60.00, 64.00
Current Option Gain/Loss: unopened
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see trigger

Comments:
12/20 update: There is no change from my weekend comments on CYN. Short-term CYN is overbought and due for a correction. We want to wait for a dip to $57.00 before initiating positions. However, should CYN find support near $58.00 we could re-evaluate our entry point strategy. If CYN doesn't begin to correct lower soon I'll drop it as a candidate. FYI: The Point & Figure chart is bullish with a $83 target.

Trigger @ $57.00

Suggested Position: buy CYN stock @ $57.00

- or -

Buy the 2011 February $60 calls (cyn1119B60)*

*Caution: most of the option spreads on CYN seem a little too wide. I consider the options a more aggressive trade. You may want to keep your position size small.

Entry on December xx at $xx.xx
Earnings Date 01/27/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 223 thousand
Listed on December 4th, 2010


FLIR Systems Inc. - FLIR - close: 28.82 change: +0.37

Stop Loss: 27.40
Target(s): 30.90, 33.00
Current Option Gain/Loss: unopened
Time Frame: 10 to 12 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see trigger

Comments:
12/20 update: FLIR continues to show relative strength. The stock added +1.3% and closed above short-term resistance at $28.50. Aggressive traders may want to open positions now. I'm suggesting we use a trigger at $29.10 to open bullish positions. FLIR doesn't move super fast but our targets are $30.90 and $33.00.

Breakout Trigger @ $29.10

Suggested Position: Buy FLIR stock @ $29.10

- or -

Buy the 2011 April $30.00 calls (FLIR1116D30) current ask $1.35

Entry on December xx at $xx.xx
Earnings Date 02/10/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.6 million
Listed on December 18th, 2010


JB Hunt Transport Services - JBHT - close: 39.44 change: -0.16

Stop Loss: 36.75
Target(s): 40.70, 43.75
Current Option Gain/Loss: unopened
Time Frame: 8 to 10 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see trigger

Comments:
12/20 update: Transport stocks hit some profit taking today. JBHT lost -0.4%. Big picture the trend is up and we are waiting to buy JBHT on a dip at the $38.00 mark.

FYI: A week ago the NASDAQ announced they were removing JBHT from the NASDAQ-100 index and this removal takes place on Dec. 20th. Firms should start selling shares of JBHT to make room for those stocks being added to the index.

Trigger to buy the dip at $38.00

Suggested Position: Buy JBHT stock @ 38.00

- or -

Buy the 2011 February $40 calls (JBHT1119B40)

Entry on December xx at $xx.xx
Earnings Date 01/28/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.2 million
Listed on December 13th, 2010


Microsoft Corp. - MSFT - close: 27.81 change: -0.09

Stop Loss: 25.70
Target(s): 27.45, 29.00
Current Gain/Loss: + 8.8%
Time Frame: 10 to 12 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
12/20 update: MSFT is stalling near resistance. I'm expecting a healthy correction back toward the $27.00-26.50 zone. No new positions at this time.

Current Position: Long MSFT stock @ 25.55

- or -

Buy the 2011 January $25.00 calls (symbol: MSFT1122A25) Entry @ $1.39

12/18/10 new stop @ 25.70
12/14/10 Target hit @ 27.45 (+7.4%), option @ $2.55 (+83.4%)
12/11/10 New stop @ 25.45
11/29/10 New stop @ 24.70

Entry on November 17 at $25.55
Earnings Date 01/27/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 68.4 million
Listed on November 15th, 2010


Starbucks Corp. - SBUX - close: 32.93 change: +0.15

Stop Loss: 30.75
Target(s): 34.75
Current Option Gain/Loss: unopened
Time Frame: 8 to 10 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see trigger

Comments:
12/20 update: SBUX is flirting with a breakout over resistance near $33.00. Aggressive traders might want to consider positions on a close over $33. I would much rather wait for a dip. Currently our trigger to initiate bullish positions is at $31.75.

FYI: SBUX is currently in a legal battle with Kraft Foods (KFT) over distribution of SBUX's ground coffee brand but investors seem to be ignoring it.

Trigger @ $31.75

Suggested Position: Buy SBUX stock @ $31.25

- or -

Buy the 2011 January $32.00 call (SBUX1122A32)
Buy the 2011 April $33.00 call (SBUX1116D33)

Entry on December xx at $xx.xx
Earnings Date 01/20/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 7.1 million
Listed on December 8th, 2010


Sara Lee Corp - SLE - close: 17.69 change: +0.43

Stop Loss: 15.45
Target(s): 17.00, 17.90
Current Option Gain/Loss: +12.8%
Time Frame: 10 to 12 weeks
New Positions: no

Comments:
12/20 update: SLE was trading lower this morning, before the market was open, on rumors that the potential deal with JBS might fall through. Shares dipped to $16.82 this morning but quickly recovered and closed with a +2.49% gain and another new relative high. There is no change from my weekend comments. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Current Position: Long SLE stock @ $15.68

- or -

Long the 2011 April $15.00 calls (SLE1116D15) Entry @ $1.35

12/18/10 New stop @ 15.45, New final target @ 19.75
12/17/10 Target Hit @ 17.00 (+8.4%), option @ $2.00 (+48.1%)

Entry on December 8 at $15.68
Earnings Date 02/03/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 7.6 million
Listed on December 7th, 2010


Sony Corp. - SNE - close: 35.19 change: -0.20

Stop Loss: 33.75
Target(s): 36.50, 39.00
Current Option Gain/Loss: unopened
Time Frame: 10 to 12 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see trigger

Comments:
12/20 update: The correction in SNE continues. Shares are nearing the $35.00 level and just hit their 30-dma. We're waiting for a dip into the $34.50-34.00 zone. Officially our entry point to launch bullish positions is at $34.50. I am raising our stop loss to $33.75.

Trigger @ $34.50

Suggested Position: Buy SNE stock
- or -
Buy the 2011 APRIL $35 calls (SNE1116D35)

Entry on December xx at $xx.xx
Earnings Date 02/03/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 888 thousand
Listed on November 23rd, 2010


Trimble Navigation - TRMB - close: 39.97 change: -0.11

Stop Loss: 36.40
Target(s): 41.00, 43.00
Current Option Gain/Loss: unopened
Time Frame: 8 to 10 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see trigger

Comments:
12/20 update: TRMB spent the day hugging the $40.00 level. There is no change from my weekend comment. The stock remains somewhat overbought. Broken resistance near $38.00 should offer some support. I'm suggesting a trigger to launch bullish positions at $38.50.

Trigger @ $38.50

Suggested Position: Buy TRMB stock @ $38.50

- or -

Buy the 2011 February $40.00 calls (TRMB1119B40) current ask $2.35

Entry on December xx at $xx.xx
Earnings Date 02/02/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 435 thousand
Listed on December 4th, 2010


Ternium S.A. - TX - close: 41.11 change: -0.13

Stop Loss: 35.85
Target(s): 43.00, 45.00
Current Option Gain/Loss: unopened
Time Frame: 12 to 14 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see trigger

Comments:
12/20 update: TX spiked toward $42.00 and failed. Currently we're still waiting for a significant correction to launch bullish positions. Our suggested entry point is $38.25 but we will re-evaluate possible changes if we see a correction toward the $40-39 zone.
FYI: The Point & Figure chart for TX is forecasting a bullish target of $48.

Buy-the-Dip Trigger @ $38.25

Suggested Position: Buy TX stock

Note: TX does have options but the spreads are horrendously wide so I'm not suggesting any calls on this trade.

Entry on December xx at $xx.xx
Earnings Date 02/23/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 295 thousand
Listed on December 14th, 2010


Wells Fargo & Co - WFC - close: 30.10 change: +0.14

Stop Loss: 27.90
Target(s): 29.25, 31.90
Current Option Gain/Loss: +11.9%
Time Frame: 10 to 12 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
12/20 update: The banking indices have continued to bounce but WFC is consolidating sideways near the $30.00 level. I am not suggesting new positions at this time. Currently our final exit target is $31.90 but aggressive traders could aim high (given enough time).

Current Position: Long WFC stock @ $26.88

- or -

Long the 2011 January $27.50 call (WFC1122A27.5) Entry @ $1.16

12/09: New stop loss @ $27.90
12/08: Target Hit $29.25 (+8.8%), Option @ $2.30 (+98.2%)

Entry on November 30 at $26.88
Earnings Date 01/19/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 32.7 million
Listed on November 29th, 2010


World Wrestling Entertainment - WWE - close: 14.30 change: +0.02

Stop Loss: 13.75
Target(s): 14.95, 16.40
Current Option Gain/Loss: + 1.4%
Time Frame: 10 to 12 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
12/20 update: Outside of the opening move higher, shares of WWE traded sideways in a very narrow range on Monday. I would still consider new bullish positions in the $14.30-14.00 area.

Suggested Position: Long WWE stock @ $14.10

- or -

Buy the 2011 April $15.00 calls (WWE1116D15), entry @ $0.45

*Note: The call options on WWE have very large spreads, making them a higher-risk trade.

Entry on December 13 at $14.10
Earnings Date 02/10/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 242 thousand
Listed on December 9th, 2010


CLOSED BULLISH PLAYS

American Express - AXP - close: 42.50 change: -1.51

Stop Loss: 41.95
Target(s): 47.50, 49.85
Current Option Gain/Loss: - 5.7%
Time Frame: 10 to 12 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
12/20 update: Ouch! Shares of AXP were big underperformers on Monday. The stock opened lower and spiked down to its exponential 200-dma near $41.25 before paring its losses. Our stop loss was hit at $41.95. Fueling the move was an analyst downgrade. The firm is worried that the U.S. congress will turn their focus from putting a cap on debit-card fees to credit-card fees as well. While AXP doesn't deal in debit cards, a cap on credit-card fees would be terrible for their business. Our play was closed at $41.95.

Stopped out @ 41.95

Closed Position: Long AXP stock @ $44.49, stopped @ 41.95 (-5.7%)

- or -

Long the 2011 April $45 calls (AXP1116D45) Entry @ $2.72, exit @ $1.55 (-43.0%)

chart:

Entry on December 17 at $44.49
Earnings Date 01/20/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 9.0 million
Listed on December 2nd, 2010


SAKS Inc. - SKS - close: 11.38 change: -0.22

Stop Loss: 10.90
Target(s): 13.95, 14.95
Current Option Gain/Loss: - 5.0%
Time Frame: 10 to 12 weeks
New Positions: No

Comments:
12/20 update: I am growing more and more worried about the action in SKS. Shares under performed today with a -1.8% loss. The close under the 40-dma is bearish as is the close under the $11.40 level. I am suggesting an early exit now! (We'll have to update these exit numbers for tomorrow morning).

Early Exit Now!

Closed Position: Long SKS stock @ $11.98, exit @ $11.38 (-5.0%)

- or -

Buy the 2011 February $12.50 calls (SKS1119B12.5) Entry @ $0.65, exit @ 0.35 (-46%)

chart:

Entry on December 13 at $11.98
Earnings Date 02/22/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.1 million
Listed on December 11th, 2010