Editor's Note:
The market continues to climb led by energy and material stocks today. Our bullish trade on AA has been opened.

-James

Current Portfolio:


BULLISH Play Updates

Alcoa Inc - AA - close: 17.59 change: +0.22

Stop Loss: 16.25
Target(s): 18.50, 19.75
Current Gain/Loss: - 0.3%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/14 update: Material-related stocks were showing some relative strength on Monday in spite of a bounce in the dollar. Shares of AA broke out from its trading range and hit our breakout trigger at $17.65 so the play is now open with a stop loss at $16.25. I would still consider new positions right here. Our upside targets are $18.50 and $19.90. The early 2010 high near $17.60 could be short-term resistance but the trend for AA looks pretty healthy.

Current Position: Long AA stock @ $17.65

- or -

Long the March $17.00 calls (AA1119C17) Entry @ $0.98

02/14 AA hits our breakout trigger @ 17.65, Stop @ 16.25

chart:

Entry on February 14 at $17.65
Earnings Date 04/11/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 41 million
Listed on February 2nd, 2010


Autodesk, Inc. - ADSK - close: 42.34 change: -0.35

Stop Loss: 39.90
Target(s): 46.00
Current Gain/Loss: + 0.5%
Time Frame: 2 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/14 update: ADSK underperformed on Monday with a failed rally near short-term resistance at $43.00. This stock could be setting up for a drop toward the bottom of its bullish channel near $41.00-40.75. Readers could buy the dip or wait for the bounce near that level as another entry point (just remember our time frame). This is a short-term, two-week trade. ADSK is due to report earnings in late February and we do not want to hold over the announcement.

Current Position: Long ADSK stock @ 42.10

- or -

Long the March $45 call (ADSK1119C45) Entry @ $0.90

Entry on February 9 at $42.10
Earnings Date 02/23/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.5 million
Listed on February 7th, 2010


AnnTaylor Stores - ANN - close: 23.73 change: -0.12

Stop Loss: 20.95
Target(s): 25.90, 27.85
Current Gain/Loss: - 0.5%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/14 update: Shares opened at $23.86 and continued its sideways consolidation. I would still consider new positions here but nimble traders could wait for a dip near $23.00 or $22 instead. Shares of ANN still have some short-term resistance near the $24.40-24.50 zone and the 50-dma could be a problem but the strength in the RLX retail index bodes well for stocks like ANN.

Our targets are $25.90 and $27.85. FYI: The P&F chart is still long-term bullish in spite of the January correction.

Small Positions

Current Position: Long ANN stock @ $23.86

- or -

Long the March $22.50 calls (ANN1119C22.5) Entry @ $2.35

Entry on February 14 at $23.86
Earnings Date 03/11/11 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.0 million
Listed on February 8th, 2010


BMC Software - BMC - close: 50.87 change: +0.70

Stop Loss: 46.70
Target(s): 54.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 3.1%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/14 update: The breakout rally in BMC continues. Shares are up another +1.39%. Volume is improving too. At this point I would wait for a dip into the $50-49 area before considering new positions. Our first target is $54.50.

FYI: The Point & Figure chart for BMC is bullish with a $78 target.

Current Position: Long BMC stock @ 49.30

- or -

Long the March $50 call (BMC1119C50) Entry @ $1.40

Entry on February 11 at $49.30
Earnings Date 05/05/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.9 million
Listed on February 10th, 2010


Garmin Ltd. - GRMN - close: 32.50 change: -0.58

Stop Loss: 31.65
Target(s): 35.95
Current Gain/Loss: - 1.5%
Time Frame: six trading days
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/14 update: Bingo! GRMN did indeed pull back toward the $32.50 area. If you didn't open positions this morning I would still consider new positions here. Or you could wait and see if GRMN dips toward $32.00 and buy the stock then. Keep in mind that this is a very short-term trade. GRMN is due to report earnings on Feb. 23rd and we do not want to hold over the report. Given the recent strength GRMN could see a short squeeze or at least some short covering. The most recent data listed short interest at 19% of the 106 million-share float.

FYI: The Point & Figure chart for GRMN is bullish with a $49 target.

Open Small Positions

Current Position: Long GRMN stock @ $33.01

- or -

Long the March $34 calls (GRMN1119C34) Entry @ $1.23

Entry on February 14 at $33.01
Earnings Date 02/23/11 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.1 million
Listed on February 12th, 2010


Hansen Natural Corp. - HANS - close: 56.39 change: -0.18

Stop Loss: 53.75
Target(s): 59.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 1.5%
Time Frame: just a couple of weeks left.
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/14 update: HANS is due to report earnings in late February so we only have a couple of weeks left. I would still consider new positions now. Small positions only to limit our risk.

- Small Positions to limit our risk -

Current Position: HANS stock @ $55.54

02/12 New stop loss @ 53.75
01/29 Exit call positions early. @ $1.15 (-23.3%)
01/26 the CBOE listed the MAR $60 call's open @ $1.50

Entry on January 26 at $55.54
Earnings Date 02/24/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 654 thousand
Listed on January 25th, 2010


Home Depot - HD - close: 37.58 change: +0.10

Stop Loss: 36.25
Target(s): 39.95
Current Gain/Loss: + 0.2%
Time Frame: 5 trading days
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
02/14 update: Monday was a very boring day for HD. Once past the first hour of trading the stock was stuck in a very narrow range. There is no change from my weekend comments. I would consider new positions now but we only have four trading days left. We want to close this trade on Friday, unless shares hit our target first ($39.95).

Current Position: Long HD stock @ $37.47

- or -

Long the March $38 calls (HD1119C38) Entry @ $0.74

Entry on February 14 at $37.47
Earnings Date 02/22/11 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 9.8 million
Listed on February 12th, 2010


Lincare Holdings Inc. - LNCR - close: 28.76 change: +0.41

Stop Loss: 26.90
Target(s): 29.90, 31.75
Current Gain/Loss: + 1.3%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/14 update: LNCR was kind enough to give us a dip this morning as we apply our new entry point strategy. Shares eventually outperformed the broad market indices with a +1.4% gain. Although technically LNCR still looks like it's inside the recent trading range.

Take note that LNCR will probably see some resistance near $29.25 and the $30.00 levels.

FYI: The Point & Figure chart for LNCR is bullish with a $40 target. Plus, investors will be interested to note that LNCR has relatively high short interest. The most recent data listed short interest at 11.6% of the 86-million share float. With the recent breakout this stock could see a short squeeze.

- Small Bullish Positions -

Current Position: Long LNCR stock @ 28.37

- or -

Long the March $29.00 calls (LNCR1119C29) Entry @ $0.75

02/12 Adjusted entry point to current levels.

Entry on February 14 at $28.37
Earnings Date 04/19/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 932 thousand
Listed on February 9th, 2010


Oracle Corp. - ORCL - close: 33.29 change: -0.18

Stop Loss: 31.65
Target(s): 34.90
Current Gain/Loss: + 2.0%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/14 update: Monday proved to be a quiet session for ORCL. There is no change from my prior comments. Odds are pretty good we might see another entry point on a dip near the $33.00-32.80 zone.

Our target on ORCL is the $34.90 mark since $35.00 looks like the next level of resistance.

small positions to limit our risk.

Current Position: ORCL stock @ $32.62

- or -

Long the 2011 March $33 calls (ORCL1119C33) Entry @ $0.80

02/12 New stop loss @ 31.65
02/10 ORCL is improving. This looks like a new entry point.
01/29 Consider an early exit, especially the calls.
01/27 The CBOE listed the open for our calls at $0.80

Entry on January 27 at $32.62
Earnings Date 03/24/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 27 million
Listed on January 26th, 2010


Solutia Inc. - SOA - close: 25.47 change: +0.14

Stop Loss: 23.65
Target(s): 27.25, 29.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 0.8%
Time Frame: 8 to 10 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/14 update: Shares of SOA spent the day consolidating sideways. I would still consider new positions now or on a dip near $25.00.

Current Position: Long SOA stock @ $25.25

- or -

Long the March $25 calls (SOA1119C25) Entry @ $1.35

- or -

Long the June $25 calls (SOA1118F25) Entry @ $2.50

Entry on February 11 at $25.25
Earnings Date 01/26/11
Average Daily Volume: 1.7 million
Listed on February 10th, 2010


The TJX Companies - TJX - close: 49.54 change: -1.26

Stop Loss: 47.45
Target(s): 52.00, 54.50
Current Gain/Loss: unopened
Time Frame: 2 to 3 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see trigger

Comments:
02/14 update: TJX underperformed on Monday with a -2.4% loss. I couldn't find any news to explain the sudden weakness. Retail stocks in general were down thanks to Wal-Mart (WMT) getting a downgrade. Shares of TJX are due for some profit taking. That's why we're waiting for a dip. Right now our plan is to launch bullish positions at $49.25. Patient traders could wait for a dip closer to $48.00 instead.

TJX has earnings in about two weeks and we'll exit ahead of the report. We'll be aiming for $52.00 and $54.50.

Trigger @ 49.25

Suggested Position: buy TJX stock @

- or -

Buy the March $50.00 calls (TJX1119C50)

02/12 New trigger @ 49.25, New stop loss @ 47.45

Entry on February xx at $xx.xx
Earnings Date 02/23/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.4 million
Listed on February 5th, 2010


Toll Brothers - TOL - close: 21.16 change: -0.30

Stop Loss: 20.49
Target(s): 23.45
Current Gain/Loss: - 1.5%
Time Frame: 6 trading days
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
02/14 update: TOL opened at $21.49, which proved to be the high for the day. Shares faded lower to settle on its lows for the session, which is not a great sign for tomorrow's open. Readers may want to wait and see if TOL can hold the $21.00 level or not. I would be temped to buy a dip or a bounce in the $20.75-20.50 zone but only because we have a stop loss at $20.49.

There is a chance TOL could see some short covering. The most recent data listed short interest at 13% of the 145 million-share float. Our target is $23.45 but that might be a little too optimistic given our timeframe.

- Small Positions -

Current Position: Long TOL stock @ $21.49

- or -

Long the March $22.50 calls (TOL1119C22.5) Entry @ $0.50

Entry on February 14 at $21.49
Earnings Date 02/23/11 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.6 million
Listed on February 12th, 2010


UnitedHealth Group - UNH - close: 42.46 change: +0.08

Stop Loss: 41.25
Target(s): 44.75
Current Gain/Loss: + 3.1%
Time Frame: 8 to 10 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/14 update: UNH recovered from its morning weakness to settle in positive territory. The bounce has done little to alleviate concerns that UNH is about to roll over. No new positions at this time.

Current Position: UNH stock @ $41.15

02/12: New stop loss @ 41.25
02/12: Exit the call options early (bid $1.47 +22.5%)
02/08: New stop loss @ 40.75

Entry on January 28 at $41.15
Earnings Date 01/20/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 5.9 million
Listed on January 20th, 2010