Editor's Note:
The major indices are inching higher but a lot of stocks are just watching the clock as we near February option expiration. We're not seeing a lot of progress. I am suggesting an early exit from our TJX play. Meanwhile GRMN, TOL, UNH, and HD all got new stop losses.

-James

Current Portfolio:


BULLISH Play Updates

Alcoa Inc - AA - close: 17.52 change: -0.07

Stop Loss: 16.25
Target(s): 18.50, 19.75
Current Gain/Loss: - 0.7%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/17 update: It was another quiet day for AA on Thursday. It looks like shares are content to drift sideways until we pass option expiration this weekend. If we see a dip near the $17.25-16.75 zone I would buy it. Our upside targets are $18.50 and $19.90. The early 2010 high near $17.60 could be short-term resistance but the trend for AA looks pretty healthy.

Current Position: Long AA stock @ $17.65

- or -

Long the March $17.00 calls (AA1119C17) Entry @ $0.98

02/14 AA hits our breakout trigger @ 17.65, Stop @ 16.25

Entry on February 14 at $17.65
Earnings Date 04/11/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 41 million
Listed on February 2nd, 2010


Adobe Systems Inc. - ADBE - close: 34.98 change: +0.29

Stop Loss: 32.45
Target(s): 37.45
Current Gain/Loss: + 2.8%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/17 update: ADBE continues to show relative strength with a +0.8% gain on Thursday. I wouldn't be surprised to see the stock hug the $35 level on Friday. I'd prefer to buy dips near $34.00 if see one. More conservative traders may want to consider a slightly higher stop loss. Our target is the $37.45 mark. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for ADBE is bullish with a $49.00 target.

Current Position: Long ADBE stock @ $34.00

- or -

Long the April $35 calls (ADBE1116D35) Entry @ $1.34

Entry on February 16 at $34.00
Earnings Date 03/22/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 5.0 million
Listed on February 15th, 2010


Autodesk, Inc. - ADSK - close: 43.66 change: -0.18

Stop Loss: 39.90
Target(s): 46.00
Current Gain/Loss: + 3.7%
Time Frame: 2 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/17 update: The market's widespread weakness on Thursday morning was enough to push ADSK back toward short-term support/resistance at the $43.00 level. Traders bought the dip again. However, I do have to point out that ADSK has now produced what might be a bearish double top with the two peaks in February. The overall trend is still up but we're running out of time.

We finally have a confirmed earnings date for ADSK. The company will announce on Feb. 24th after the closing bell. Wall Street expects a profit of 34 cents a share. We will plan on exiting that Thursday (24th) at the close to avoid holding over the announcement (assuming we don't see ADSK hit our stop or target first.

I am not suggesting new positions at this time. More conservative traders may want to up their stops closer to the 50-dma (near $40.75).

Current Position: Long ADSK stock @ 42.10

- or -

Long the March $45 call (ADSK1119C45) Entry @ $0.90

Entry on February 9 at $42.10
Earnings Date 02/24/11 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.5 million
Listed on February 7th, 2010


AnnTaylor Stores - ANN - close: 23.97 change: +0.00

Stop Loss: 20.95
Target(s): 25.90, 27.85
Current Gain/Loss: + 0.4%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/17 update: ANN is still going nowhere fast. I'm going to give this stock until Monday to actually move. If we don't see some movement by Monday's close we'll drop it. I am very tempted to raise our stop toward the $23 level. I'm not suggesting new bullish positions at this time.

Our targets are $25.90 and $27.85. FYI: The P&F chart is still long-term bullish in spite of the January correction.

Small Positions

Current Position: Long ANN stock @ $23.86

- or -

Long the March $22.50 calls (ANN1119C22.5) Entry @ $2.35

Entry on February 14 at $23.86
Earnings Date 03/11/11 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.0 million
Listed on February 8th, 2010


Allied Nevada Gold Corp. - ANV - close: 30.07 change: +0.31

Stop Loss: 27.40
Target(s): 33.00, 34.75
Current Gain/Loss: + 0.7%
Time Frame: 2+ weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/17 update: Gold and commodities continue to rise. Shares of ANV hit new highs over the $30 level today. The stock opened at $29.85 and closed with a +1% gain. If you don't feel like buying it here you could wait for a dip near $29.00. We want to keep our position size small because gold mining stocks can be very volatile. Our first target is $33.00. However, we may have to exit early. I've found two different earnings report dates for ANV but the most likely report date is Feb. 28th and we do not want to hold over the announcement.

- Small Bullish positions -

Current Position: Long ANV stock @ $29.85

- or -

Long the March $30 calls (ANV1119C30) Entry @ $1.45

Entry on February 17 at $29.85
Earnings Date 02/28/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 689 thousand
Listed on February 16th, 2010


BMC Software - BMC - close: 50.80 change: +0.32

Stop Loss: 46.70
Target(s): 54.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 3.0%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/17 update: BMC garnered some positive analyst comments on Thursday and shares added +0.6% by the closing bell. The trend is up but I'd prefer to launch positions near the $50 or $49 levels. Our first target is $54.50.

FYI: The Point & Figure chart for BMC is bullish with a $78 target.

Current Position: Long BMC stock @ 49.30

- or -

Long the March $50 call (BMC1119C50) Entry @ $1.40

Entry on February 11 at $49.30
Earnings Date 05/05/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.9 million
Listed on February 10th, 2010


Garmin Ltd. - GRMN - close: 33.43 change: +1.14

Stop Loss: 31.85
Target(s): 35.95
Current Gain/Loss: + 1.2%
Time Frame: six trading days
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/17 update: GRMN delivered a strong reversal higher on Thursday. I couldn't find any specific headline behind the move. The stock rallied to new two-month highs on what was probably short covering. Our time is almost up. Please note I am moving the stop loss to $31.85.

GRMN is due to report earnings on Feb. 23rd and we do not want to hold over the report. Thus the newsletter will plan to exit on Tuesday, Feb. 22nd at the closing bell. FYI: The most recent data listed short interest at 19% of the 106 million-share float.

Open Small Positions

Current Position: Long GRMN stock @ $33.01

- or -

Long the March $34 calls (GRMN1119C34) Entry @ $1.23

02/17 new stop loss @ 31.85

Entry on February 14 at $33.01
Earnings Date 02/23/11 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.1 million
Listed on February 12th, 2010


Hansen Natural Corp. - HANS - close: 57.41 change: +0.15

Stop Loss: 53.75
Target(s): 59.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 3.3%
Time Frame: just a couple of weeks left.
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/17 update: HANS continues to drift higher. There is no change from my prior comments. I am not suggesting new positions at this time. Small positions only to limit our risk.

- Small Positions to limit our risk -

Current Position: HANS stock @ $55.54

02/12 New stop loss @ 53.75
01/29 Exit call positions early. @ $1.15 (-23.3%)
01/26 the CBOE listed the MAR $60 call's open @ $1.50

Entry on January 26 at $55.54
Earnings Date 02/24/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 654 thousand
Listed on January 25th, 2010


Home Depot - HD - close: 38.18 change: +0.32

Stop Loss: 36.90
Target(s): 39.95
Current Gain/Loss: + 1.8%
Time Frame: 5 trading days
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/17 update: HD continues to perform well. The stock broke out past the late January highs to close at new three-year highs today. Tomorrow (Friday) is our last day and we will exit at the closing bell to avoid earnings next week. I am raising our stop loss to $36.90.

Current Position: Long HD stock @ $37.47

- or -

Long the March $38 calls (HD1119C38) Entry @ $0.74

02/17 Plan to exit tomorrow (Friday) at the close.
02/17 New stop loss @ 36.90

Entry on February 14 at $37.47
Earnings Date 02/22/11 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 9.8 million
Listed on February 12th, 2010


Kennametal Inc. - KMT - close: 40.55 change: -0.54

Stop Loss: 39.90
Target(s): 44.90
Current Gain/Loss: - 1.9%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/17 update: It recent history holds true then today's drop toward technical support at KMT's rising 50-dma is a bullish entry point. I am expecting the $45 level to offer some overhead resistance so we'll set our exit target at $44.90.

If you study the chart you'll note that the big down days in late January and early February had some huge volume. That is a worrisome sign so we want to keep our positions small to limit our risk. KMT does have options but they don't have a lot of volume so I'm going to stick to the stock itself.

- Small Bullish Positions -

Suggested Position: Buy KMT stock @ current levels

Entry on February 15 at $41.35
Earnings Date 04/28/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 960 thousand
Listed on February 14th, 2010


Lincare Holdings Inc. - LNCR - close: 29.28 change: +0.08

Stop Loss: 26.90
Target(s): 29.90, 31.75
Current Gain/Loss: + 3.2%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/17 update: LNCR continues to drift higher. There is no change from my prior comments. I am not suggesting new bullish positions at this time.

FYI: The Point & Figure chart for LNCR is bullish with a $40 target. Plus, investors will be interested to note that LNCR has relatively high short interest. The most recent data listed short interest at 11.6% of the 86-million share float. With the recent breakout this stock could see a short squeeze.

- Small Bullish Positions -

Current Position: Long LNCR stock @ 28.37

- or -

Long the March $29.00 calls (LNCR1119C29) Entry @ $0.75

02/12 Adjusted entry point to current levels.

Entry on February 14 at $28.37
Earnings Date 04/19/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 932 thousand
Listed on February 9th, 2010


Oracle Corp. - ORCL - close: 33.01 change: -0.09

Stop Loss: 31.65
Target(s): 34.90
Current Gain/Loss: + 1.2%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/17 update: Thursday turned out to be a very forgettable session for ORCL. There is no change from my prior comments. I would look to open new positions near $32.00.

Our target on ORCL is the $34.90 mark since $35.00 looks like the next level of resistance.

small positions to limit our risk.

Current Position: ORCL stock @ $32.62

- or -

Long the 2011 March $33 calls (ORCL1119C33) Entry @ $0.80

02/12 New stop loss @ 31.65
02/10 ORCL is improving. This looks like a new entry point.
01/29 Consider an early exit, especially the calls.
01/27 The CBOE listed the open for our calls at $0.80

Entry on January 27 at $32.62
Earnings Date 03/24/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 27 million
Listed on January 26th, 2010


Signet Jewelers Limited - SIG - close: 44.83 change: +0.13

Stop Loss: 42.40
Target(s): 49.75
Current Gain/Loss: unopened
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see trigger

Comments:
02/17 update: SIG almost hit our trigger to open positions. The stock rallied above resistance at $45.00 but ran out of steam at $45.18. Right now our plan is to launch bullish positions at $45.25. If triggered our first target is $49.75.

FYI: The Point & Figure chart for SIG is bullish with a $79 target.

Trigger @ $45.25

Suggested Position: Buy SIG stock @ $45.25

- or -

Buy the March $45 calls (SIG1119C45) current ask $1.55

Entry on February xx at $xx.xx
Earnings Date 03/30/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 436 thousand
Listed on February 16th, 2010


Solutia Inc. - SOA - close: 25.32 change: -0.13

Stop Loss: 23.65
Target(s): 27.25, 29.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 0.2%
Time Frame: 8 to 10 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/17 update: SOA spent the session consolidating sideways in a very narrow range. There is no change from my prior comments. I would still consider new positions on dips near the $25 area.

Current Position: Long SOA stock @ $25.25

- or -

Long the March $25 calls (SOA1119C25) Entry @ $1.35

- or -

Long the June $25 calls (SOA1118F25) Entry @ $2.50

Entry on February 11 at $25.25
Earnings Date 01/26/11
Average Daily Volume: 1.7 million
Listed on February 10th, 2010


Toll Brothers - TOL - close: 21.90 change: +0.00

Stop Loss: 20.95
Target(s): 23.45
Current Gain/Loss: + 1.9%
Time Frame: 6 trading days
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/17 update: TOL spiked to $22.42 and then gave back all of its gains. That's not very encouraging. We only have two trading days left. I am raising our stop loss to $20.95.

There is a chance TOL could see some short covering. The most recent data listed short interest at 13% of the 145 million-share float. Our target is $23.45 but that might be a little too optimistic given our timeframe.

- Small Positions -

Current Position: Long TOL stock @ $21.49

- or -

Long the March $22.50 calls (TOL1119C22.5) Entry @ $0.50

02/17 New stop loss @ 20.95

Entry on February 14 at $21.49
Earnings Date 02/23/11 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.6 million
Listed on February 12th, 2010


UnitedHealth Group - UNH - close: 42.59 change: +0.09

Stop Loss: 41.49
Target(s): 44.75
Current Gain/Loss: + 3.5%
Time Frame: 8 to 10 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/17 update: UNH might kill us with boredom before shares actually see any movement. I remain very cautious and we are not suggesting new positions at this time. Monday's low was $41.62. I am raising our stop loss to $41.49.

Current Position: UNH stock @ $41.15

02/17: New stop loss @ 41.49
02/12: New stop loss @ 41.25
02/12: Exit the call options early (bid $1.47 +22.5%)
02/08: New stop loss @ 40.75

Entry on January 28 at $41.15
Earnings Date 01/20/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 5.9 million
Listed on January 20th, 2010


CLOSED BULLISH PLAYS

The TJX Companies - TJX - close: 49.20 change: -0.22

Stop Loss: 47.45
Target(s): 52.00, 54.50
Current Gain/Loss: - 0.1%
Time Frame: 2 to 3 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/17 update: Nothing in TJX's recent action has been very inspiring. The stock looks like it wants to breakdown under short-term support near $49.00. There is still potential support in the $48.50-47.50 zone. However, we're almost out of time. TJX is due to report earnings on Feb. 23rd. I am suggesting we go ahead and exit early now.

Current Position: long TJX stock @ $49.25

- or -

Long the March $50.00 calls (TJX1119C50) entry @ $1.00

02/17 Exit Early (-0.10%), Option @ $0.90 (-10%)
02/15 Triggered @ 49.25
02/12 New trigger @ 49.25, New stop loss @ 47.45

chart:

Entry on February 15 at $49.25
Earnings Date 02/23/11 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.4 million
Listed on February 5th, 2010