Editor's Note:
Home Depot may not be the most exciting stock but shares rallied all week into its earnings report due Feb. 22nd. The U.S. markets are closed on Monday so we planned to exit HD on Friday. Meanwhile AKS and SIG both hit our triggers to open bullish positions.

-James

Current Portfolio:


BULLISH Play Updates

Alcoa Inc - AA - close: 17.28 change: -0.24

Stop Loss: 16.25
Target(s): 18.50, 19.75
Current Gain/Loss: - 2.1%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/19 update: AA provided another bullish entry point on Friday. The day before I suggested we look for a dip near $17.25 and that's what we got Friday afternoon. Our upside targets are $18.50 and $19.90. The early 2010 high near $17.60 could be short-term resistance but the trend for AA looks pretty healthy.

Current Position: Long AA stock @ $17.65

- or -

Long the March $17.00 calls (AA1119C17) Entry @ $0.98

02/18 AA provides another entry point
02/14 AA hits our breakout trigger @ 17.65, Stop @ 16.25

chart:

Entry on February 14 at $17.65
Earnings Date 04/11/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 41 million
Listed on February 2nd, 2010


Adobe Systems Inc. - ADBE - close: 35.39 change: +0.41

Stop Loss: 32.45
Target(s): 37.45
Current Gain/Loss: + 4.0%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/19 update: ADBE's rally continues. The stock surged to $35.84 intraday before paring its gains to +1.1%. ADBE is now up several days in a row and probably due for some profit taking. Broken resistance near $34 should offer new support. I would wait for a dip toward the $34 area before opening new positions. We will raise our stop loss to $32.95. Our target is the $37.45 mark. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for ADBE is bullish with a $49.00 target.

Current Position: Long ADBE stock @ $34.00

- or -

Long the April $35 calls (ADBE1116D35) Entry @ $1.34

chart:

Entry on February 16 at $34.00
Earnings Date 03/22/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 5.0 million
Listed on February 15th, 2010


Autodesk, Inc. - ADSK - close: 43.40 change: -0.26

Stop Loss: 40.95
Target(s): 46.00
Current Gain/Loss: + 3.0%
Time Frame: 2 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/19 update: ADSK is little changed the last couple of days. There is still a chance that ADSK produced a bearish double top this month. Thus far the multi-month up trend is still in place. Our play on ADSK is almost over. We will plan on exiting that Thursday (Feb 24th) at the close to avoid holding over the earnings announcement (assuming we don't see ADSK hit our stop or target first.

Given our time frame I am raising our stop loss to $40.95. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Current Position: Long ADSK stock @ 42.10

- or -

Long the March $45 call (ADSK1119C45) Entry @ $0.90

02/19 New stop loss @ 40.95

chart:

Entry on February 9 at $42.10
Earnings Date 02/24/11 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.5 million
Listed on February 7th, 2010


AK Steel Holding Corp - AKS - close: 17.20 change: -0.41

Stop Loss: 15.90
Target(s): 19.75, 22.00
Current Gain/Loss: - 0.2%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/19 update: AKS displayed some volatility on Friday but thankfully shares retested the $17.00 level. Our trigger to open bullish positions was hit at $17.25. If you missed our entry point I would still open positions now at current levels. After the closing bell on Friday AKS announced it was raising steel prices. That's a good sign that the company feels confident enough it can raise prices.

AKS can be somewhat volatile so I would consider this an aggressive, higher-risk trade. Readers may want to keep their position size smaller. Investors will also want to note that the most recent data listed short interest at almost 17% of AKS' 108 million-share float. Now I don't think this data is up to date but that is still a high amount of short interest and could fuel some short covering.

FYI: The Point & Figure chart for AKS is bullish with a $27.50 target.

Current Position: Long AKS stock @ $17.25

- or -

Long the March $18.00 calls (AKS1119C18) Entry @ $0.65

- or -

Long the June $20.00 calls (AKS1118F20) Entry @ $0.85

chart:

Entry on February 18 at $17.25
Earnings Date 04/20/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 8.7 million
Listed on February 17th, 2010


AnnTaylor Stores - ANN - close: 24.01 change: +0.04

Stop Loss: 20.95
Target(s): 25.90, 27.85
Current Gain/Loss: + 0.6%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/19 update: No surprises here. ANN has been stuck trading near $24.00 for virtually two weeks. Monday is a market holiday so we will give ANN a chance to move on Tuesday. If we don't see movement then we will drop it as a bullish candidate. I am very tempted to raise our stop toward the $23 level. I'm not suggesting new bullish positions at this time.

Our targets are $25.90 and $27.85. FYI: The P&F chart is still long-term bullish in spite of the January correction.

Small Positions

Current Position: Long ANN stock @ $23.86

- or -

Long the March $22.50 calls (ANN1119C22.5) Entry @ $2.35

chart:

Entry on February 14 at $23.86
Earnings Date 03/11/11 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.0 million
Listed on February 8th, 2010


Allied Nevada Gold Corp. - ANV - close: 30.24 change: +0.17

Stop Loss: 27.40
Target(s): 33.00, 34.75
Current Gain/Loss: + 1.3%
Time Frame: 2+ weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/19 update: Gold is still inching higher. News that Iranian gunboats were preparing to cross the Suez canal, headed toward Syria, raises concern in the Mideast. Plus, there are growing protests in Bahrain, Yemen, and Libya following the people's success in Egypt.

Shares of ANV briefly tagged another new high. I don't see any changes from my previous comments. If you don't feel like buying it here you could wait for a dip near $29.00. We want to keep our position size small because gold mining stocks can be very volatile. Our first target is $33.00. However, we may have to exit early. I've found two different earnings report dates for ANV but the most likely report date is Feb. 28th and we do not want to hold over the announcement.

- Small Bullish positions -

Current Position: Long ANV stock @ $29.85

- or -

Long the March $30 calls (ANV1119C30) Entry @ $1.45

chart:

Entry on February 17 at $29.85
Earnings Date 02/28/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 689 thousand
Listed on February 16th, 2010


BMC Software - BMC - close: 50.98 change: +0.18

Stop Loss: 47.95
Target(s): 54.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 3.4%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/19 update: BMC continues to look strong. I would prefer to launch positions on a dip near $49.00 or $50.00 but I would be tempted to launch small positions here near $51. Note our new stop loss at $47.95. Our first target is $54.50.

FYI: The Point & Figure chart for BMC is bullish with a $78 target.

Current Position: Long BMC stock @ 49.30

- or -

Long the March $50 call (BMC1119C50) Entry @ $1.40

02/19 New stop loss @ 47.95

chart:

Entry on February 11 at $49.30
Earnings Date 05/05/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.9 million
Listed on February 10th, 2010


Garmin Ltd. - GRMN - close: 33.02 change: -0.41

Stop Loss: 31.85
Target(s): 35.95
Current Gain/Loss: + 0.0%
Time Frame: six trading days
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/19 update: Well so much for Thursday's big rally in GRMN. The company's main rival TomTom reported earnings on Thursday night that were worse than expected. More and more competition and rising marketing costs produced a disappointing quarter and TomTom's management issued a very lackluster forecast for 2011. Investors were naturally disappointed since GRMN's earnings are coming up in few days. Shares of GRMN gapped open lower but did manage a bounce from support near $32.00. Right now our plan is to exit this trade on Tuesday at the closing bell. FYI: The most recent data listed short interest at 19% of the 106 million-share float.

Open Small Positions

Current Position: Long GRMN stock @ $33.01

- or -

Long the March $34 calls (GRMN1119C34) Entry @ $1.23

02/19 Plan to exit on Tuesday, Feb. 22nd at the close
02/17 new stop loss @ 31.85

chart:

Entry on February 14 at $33.01
Earnings Date 02/23/11 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.1 million
Listed on February 12th, 2010


Hansen Natural Corp. - HANS - close: 57.27 change: -0.14

Stop Loss: 53.75
Target(s): 59.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 3.1%
Time Frame: just a couple of weeks left.
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/19 update: Our time is almost up for this trade. We only have a few days left. HANS reports earnings on Feb. 24th and we plan to exit ahead of the announcement. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

- Small Positions to limit our risk -

Current Position: HANS stock @ $55.54

02/12 New stop loss @ 53.75
01/29 Exit call positions early. @ $1.15 (-23.3%)
01/26 the CBOE listed the MAR $60 call's open @ $1.50

chart:

Entry on January 26 at $55.54
Earnings Date 02/24/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 654 thousand
Listed on January 25th, 2010


Kennametal Inc. - KMT - close: 40.51 change: -0.04

Stop Loss: 39.90
Target(s): 44.90
Current Gain/Loss: - 2.0%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/19 update: We were expecting KMT to bounce from support near its 50-dma on Friday. However, options expiration may have delayed any rebound. The stock dipped toward the nearest strike price, which is the $40.00 mark. I would still consider buying this dip but more cautious traders may want to wait for a bounce first.

If you study the chart you'll note that the big down days in late January and early February had some huge volume. That is a worrisome sign so we want to keep our positions small to limit our risk. KMT does have options but they don't have a lot of volume so I'm going to stick to the stock itself.

- Small Bullish Positions -

Suggested Position: Buy KMT stock @ current levels

chart:

Entry on February 15 at $41.35
Earnings Date 04/28/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 960 thousand
Listed on February 14th, 2010


Lincare Holdings Inc. - LNCR - close: 29.38 change: +0.10

Stop Loss: 27.45
Target(s): 29.90, 31.75
Current Gain/Loss: + 3.5%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/19 update: LNCR posted another gain on Friday. Shares are up four weeks in a row and might be due for some profit taking, especially as it nears potential resistance in the $29.50-30.00 zone. I am raising our stop loss to $27.45. The $28.00 area should offer support. I am not suggesting new bullish positions at this time.

FYI: The Point & Figure chart for LNCR is bullish with a $40 target. Plus, investors will be interested to note that LNCR has relatively high short interest. The most recent data listed short interest at 11.6% of the 86-million share float. With the recent breakout this stock could see a short squeeze.

- Small Bullish Positions -

Current Position: Long LNCR stock @ 28.37

- or -

Long the March $29.00 calls (LNCR1119C29) Entry @ $0.75

02/19 New stop loss @ 27.45
02/12 Adjusted entry point to current levels.

chart:

Entry on February 14 at $28.37
Earnings Date 04/19/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 932 thousand
Listed on February 9th, 2010


Oracle Corp. - ORCL - close: 33.68 change: +0.67

Stop Loss: 31.65
Target(s): 34.90
Current Gain/Loss: + 3.2%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/19 update: After a couple of days of going nowhere shares of ORCL finally woke up. The stock outperformed on Friday with a +2% gain and a new multi-year high. Aggressive traders could buy the breakout but you'll want to consider a tighter stop loss.

Our target on ORCL is the $34.90 mark since $35.00 looks like the next level of resistance.

small positions to limit our risk.

Current Position: ORCL stock @ $32.62

- or -

Long the 2011 March $33 calls (ORCL1119C33) Entry @ $0.80

02/12 New stop loss @ 31.65
02/10 ORCL is improving. This looks like a new entry point.
01/29 Consider an early exit, especially the calls.
01/27 The CBOE listed the open for our calls at $0.80

chart:

Entry on January 27 at $32.62
Earnings Date 03/24/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 27 million
Listed on January 26th, 2010


Signet Jewelers Limited - SIG - close: 44.83 change: +0.13

Stop Loss: 42.40
Target(s): 49.75
Current Gain/Loss: - 0.0%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/19 update: Our new play on SIG is now open. The stock traded higher midday on Friday and hit our trigger to open bullish positions at $45.25. I would still consider new bullish positions now or on dips near $44.00. Our first target is $49.75.

FYI: The Point & Figure chart for SIG is bullish with a $79 target.

Current Position: Long SIG stock @ $45.25

- or -

Long the March $45 calls (SIG1119C45) Entry @ $1.85

chart:

Entry on February 18 at $45.25
Earnings Date 03/30/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 436 thousand
Listed on February 16th, 2010


Solutia Inc. - SOA - close: 24.90 change: -0.42

Stop Loss: 23.65
Target(s): 27.25, 29.50
Current Gain/Loss: - 1.3%
Time Frame: 8 to 10 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/19 update: I suspect the relative weakness in SOA on Friday was the stock reacting to February option expiration. Shares moved closer to the nearest strike price, which was $25.00. I would use this dip as a new bullish entry point.

Current Position: Long SOA stock @ $25.25

- or -

Long the March $25 calls (SOA1119C25) Entry @ $1.35

- or -

Long the June $25 calls (SOA1118F25) Entry @ $2.50

chart:

Entry on February 11 at $25.25
Earnings Date 01/26/11
Average Daily Volume: 1.7 million
Listed on February 10th, 2010


Toll Brothers - TOL - close: 21.84 change: -0.06

Stop Loss: 20.95
Target(s): 23.45
Current Gain/Loss: + 1.6%
Time Frame: 6 trading days
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/19 update: Our time with TOL is almost up. The U.S. markets are closed on Monday. We will plan on exiting Tuesday at the closing bell to avoid holding over the earnings announcement on Wednesday.

There is a chance TOL could see some short covering. The most recent data listed short interest at 13% of the 145 million-share float.

- Small Positions -

Current Position: Long TOL stock @ $21.49

- or -

Long the March $22.50 calls (TOL1119C22.5) Entry @ $0.50

02/19 Prepare to exit on Tuesday @ the close.
02/17 New stop loss @ 20.95

chart:

Entry on February 14 at $21.49
Earnings Date 02/23/11 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.6 million
Listed on February 12th, 2010


UnitedHealth Group - UNH - close: 42.84 change: +0.25

Stop Loss: 41.49
Target(s): 44.75
Current Gain/Loss: + 4.1%
Time Frame: 8 to 10 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/19 update: Hmmm.... UNH was showing some relative strength on Friday. While this is encouraging I am still not suggesting new bullish positions.

Current Position: UNH stock @ $41.15

02/17: New stop loss @ 41.49
02/12: New stop loss @ 41.25
02/12: Exit the call options early (bid $1.47 +22.5%)
02/08: New stop loss @ 40.75

chart:

Entry on January 28 at $41.15
Earnings Date 01/20/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 5.9 million
Listed on January 20th, 2010


CLOSED BULLISH PLAYS

Home Depot - HD - close: 38.48 change: +0.30

Stop Loss: 36.90
Target(s): 39.95
Current Gain/Loss: + 2.7%
Time Frame: 5 trading days
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/19 update: The rally in HD was starting to pick up speed and shares closed the week at new relative highs. Unfortunately, our play has run out of time. We wanted to exit on Friday at the closing bell to avoid holding over earnings coming up soon.

Current Position: Long HD stock @ $37.47, Exit $38.48 (+2.7%)

- or -

March $38 calls (HD1119C38) Entry @ $0.74, Exit @ $1.17 (+58.1%)

02/18 Exit at the close @ 38.48 (+2.7%), Option @ $1.17 (+58.1%)
02/17 Plan to exit tomorrow (Friday) at the close.
02/17 New stop loss @ 36.90

chart:

Entry on February 14 at $37.47
Earnings Date 02/22/11 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 9.8 million
Listed on February 12th, 2010