Editor's Note:
The oversold bounce was very widespread on Friday. Virtually every sector posted gains. The best performers were banks, oil services, miners, and casino-related names. Not much has changed on our play list but I did update a few stop losses. Prepare to exit VNR on Monday.

-James

Current Portfolio:


BULLISH Play Updates

Alcoa Inc - AA - close: 16.68 change: +0.13

Stop Loss: 15.95
Target(s): 18.50, 19.75
Current Gain/Loss: - 5.5%
2nd Position Current Gain/Loss: - 0.9%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/26 update: AA gapped open higher on Friday morning, which impacted our new entry point for the second position in AA. The stock opened at $16.84 and then spent most of the day churning sideways in the $16.50-16.70 zone. I remain bullish on AA but that could change if shares fail near $17.00.

Current Position: Long AA stock @ $17.65

- or -

Long the March $17.00 calls (AA1119C17) Entry @ $0.98

-2nd position, Entry Feb. 25th -

New Position: Buy AA stock @ 16.84

- or -

Buy the March $17.00 calls (AA1119C17) Entry @ $0.39

02/25 AA opened at $16.84. March $17 calls opened @ $0.39
02/24 Open new positions on the bounce.
02/23 use the bounce as a new entry point.
02/22 Adjust the stop loss to $15.95
02/18 AA provides another entry point
02/14 AA hits our breakout trigger @ 17.65, Stop @ 16.25

chart:

Entry on February 14 at $17.65
Earnings Date 04/11/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 41 million
Listed on February 2nd, 2010


ACI Worldwide Inc. - close: 30.71 change: +1.07

Stop Loss: 27.80
Target(s): 33.00, 34.75
Current Gain/Loss: + 3.6%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/26 update: ACIW is off to a good start. Shares performed well with a +3.6% gain and a new three-year high. The stock opened at $29.63 and rallied with strong volume. If you missed the entry point Friday morning I'd probably wait for a dip near the $30.00-29.50 zone. Our upside targets are $33.00 and $34.75.

FYI: ACIW does have options but the spreads are very wide, which puts us at a significant disadvantage.

SMALL bullish positions

Current Position: Long ACIW stock @ $29.63

chart:

Entry on February 25 at $29.63
Earnings Date 04/28/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 122 thousand
Listed on February 24th, 2010


AnnTaylor Stores - ANN - close: 23.85 change: +0.32

Stop Loss: 22.85
Target(s): 25.90, 27.85
Current Gain/Loss: - 0.4%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/26 update: There is no change from my prior comments on ANN. I remain cautious here and would not open new positions.

Small Positions

Current Position: Long ANN stock @ $23.86

- or -

Long the March $22.50 calls (ANN1119C22.5) Entry @ $2.35

02/23 New stop loss @ 22.85
02/22 New stop loss @ 22.40

chart:

Entry on February 14 at $23.86
Earnings Date 03/11/11 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.0 million
Listed on February 8th, 2010


Baxter Intl. - BAX - close: 52.42 change: +0.74

Stop Loss: 49.90
Target(s): 54.90, 57.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 0.8%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/26 update: Entry point alert! Instead of waiting for a dip to $51.00 readers can take advantage of this bounce in shares of BAX. More conservative traders may want to raise their stops toward $51.00 or the $51.40 level. My biggest concern was the lack of volume behind Friday's +1.4% bounce. We want to keep our position size small to limit our risk.

FYI: The Point & Figure chart for BAX is bullish with a $73 target.

(small positions only)

Current Position: Long BAX stock @ 52.00

- or -

Long the May $55 call (BAX1121E55) Entry @ $1.05

chart:

Entry on February 22 at $52.00
Earnings Date 04/21/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 5.8 million
Listed on February 19th, 2010


Intuit - INTU - close: 52.40 change: +0.72

Stop Loss: 49.49
Target(s): 54.75, 59.00
Current Gain/Loss: + 1.0%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/26 update: INTU is bouncing as we expected but shares did not quite keep up with the NASDAQ composite's +1.5% gain. Shares of INTU ran into some resistance near the $52.75 level. Readers may want to wait for another dip into the $52.00-51.00 zone before initiating new positions.

Current Position: Long INTU stock @ $51.87

- or -

Long the March $52.50 calls (INTU1119C52.5) Entry @ $1.10

- or -

Long the April $55.00 calls (INTU1116D55) Entry @ $1.05

chart:

Entry on February 25 at $51.87
Earnings Date 05/19/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.8 million
Listed on February 24th, 2010


Lincare Holdings Inc. - LNCR - close: 29.57 change: +0.45

Stop Loss: 27.95
Target(s): 29.90, 31.75
Current Gain/Loss: + 4.2%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/26 update: LNCR continues to drift higher. The stock looks poised to hit our first target at $29.90 soon. More conservative traders might want to raise their stop loss. Currently ours is $27.95. I am not suggesting new bullish positions at this time.

FYI: The Point & Figure chart for LNCR is bullish with a $40 target. Plus, investors will be interested to note that LNCR has relatively high short interest. The most recent data listed short interest at 11.6% of the 86-million share float. With the recent breakout this stock could see a short squeeze.

- Small Bullish Positions -

Current Position: Long LNCR stock @ 28.37

- or -

Long the March $29.00 calls (LNCR1119C29) Entry @ $0.75

02/22 New stop loss @ 27.95
02/19 New stop loss @ 27.45
02/12 Adjusted entry point to current levels.

chart:

Entry on February 14 at $28.37
Earnings Date 04/19/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 932 thousand
Listed on February 9th, 2010


Signet Jewelers Limited - SIG - close: 43.78 change: +0.60

Stop Loss: 42.40
Target(s): 49.75
Current Gain/Loss: - 3.2%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/26 update: SIG is trying to bounce from technical support at its 50-dma. I'd like to see a little bit of follow through before initiating new positions.

Current Position: Long SIG stock @ $45.25

- or -

Long the March $45 calls (SIG1119C45) Entry @ $1.85

chart:

Entry on February 18 at $45.25
Earnings Date 03/30/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 436 thousand
Listed on February 16th, 2010


UnitedHealth Group - UNH - close: 42.52 change: -0.23

Stop Loss: 41.95
Target(s): 44.75
Current Gain/Loss: + 3.3%
Time Frame: 8 to 10 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/26 update: UNH underperformed on Friday. I am concerned that this stock may have formed a bearish double top with the failed rallies near $44.00. I'm raising the stop loss to $41.95. More conservative traders may want to go ahead and take profits now with an early exit. No new positions at this time.

Current Position: UNH stock @ $41.15

02/26: New stop loss @ 41.95
02/22: New stop loss @ 41.80
02/17: New stop loss @ 41.49
02/12: New stop loss @ 41.25
02/12: Exit the call options early (bid $1.47 +22.5%)
02/08: New stop loss @ 40.75

chart:

Entry on January 28 at $41.15
Earnings Date 01/20/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 5.9 million
Listed on January 20th, 2010


Vanguard National Res. - VNR - close: 32.47 change: +0.27

Stop Loss: 31.25
Target(s): 34.95
Current Gain/Loss: +0.9%
Time Frame: 1 week
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/26 update: VNR rose +0.8% on Friday but that underperformed the gains in the energy sector. I still haven't seen any headlines to explain Thursday's volatility. The trend remains bullish but after Thursday's action readers will definitely want to keep their positions sizes small to limit risk. Don't forget that we plan on exiting this trade Monday (Feb. 28th) at the closing bell to avoid earnings on March 1st.

NOTE: given our time frame I am raising the stop loss to $31.25.

small bullish positions

Current Position: Long GNR stock @ $32.17

- or -

Long the March $30 call (VNR1119C30) Entry @ $2.80

02/26: Prepare to exit on Monday at the close.
02/26: New stop loss @ 31.25

chart:

Entry on February 23 at $32.17
Earnings Date 03/01/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 277 thousand
Listed on February 22nd, 2010


CLOSED BULLISH PLAYS

Allied Nevada Gold Corp. - ANV - close: 30.00 change: +0.77

Stop Loss: 27.95
Target(s): 33.00, 34.75
Current Gain/Loss: + 0.5%
Time Frame: 2+ weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/26 update: Both the U.S. dollar and gold were moving higher on Friday. Gold mining stocks rallied as well. ANV outperformed its peers with a +2.6% gain. The stock looks poised to move higher. Unfortunately, we are out of time. It was our plan to exit this trade on Friday at the closing bell to avoid holding over earnings on Monday morning.

- Small Bullish positions -

Current Position: Long ANV stock @ $29.85, Exit @ 30.00 (+0.5%)

- or -

March $30 calls (ANV1119C30) Entry @ $1.45, Exit $1.25 (-13.7%)

02/25 Planned exit. ANV @ $30.00 (+0.5%), Option @ -13.7%
02/24 New stop loss @ 27.95

chart:

Entry on February 17 at $29.85
Earnings Date 02/28/11 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 689 thousand
Listed on February 16th, 2010