Editor's Note:
The spike in oil has soured the mood on Wall Street. The tone of trading took a nasty turn on Tuesday. False rumors that Saudi Arabia had sent tanks into neighboring Bahrain to help the local government deter protestors started the day off on a bad note. The positive PMI data both here in the U.S. and abroad could not stop the bearish shadow cast by rising oil prices. Brent crude oil futures rose $3.60 to over $115 a barrel. Even energy stocks failed to rally on the commodity's strength. Gold broke out to new all-time highs and silver surged to new 30+ year highs as investors sought safe havens for their money.

I heard a lot of bearish comments and worries that the stock market had started a new correction lower and how small caps and consumer-related stocks would likely underperform. Yet when I look at the stock market's major averages the trend is still up. Yes, today was a bad day for the bulls and yes we should be cautious and on our guard. Until the S&P 500 breaks down under support near 1300 I'm going to remain cautiously bullish.

Tonight I would hesitate to launch new positions. Let's wait and see if stocks bounce from recent support. If they do then traders will likely rush into to buy this second dip. If not, well, readers may want to tighten their stop losses tonight just in case.

-James

Current Portfolio:


BULLISH Play Updates

Alcoa Inc - AA - close: 16.23 change: -0.62

Stop Loss: 15.95
Target(s): 18.50, 19.75
Current Gain/Loss: - 8.0%
2nd Position Current Gain/Loss: + 0.0%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/01 update: Caution! I have been warning readers that if AA fails near the $17.00 level it could signal a change in the stock's trend. That's exactly what happened today with a failed rally at $17 and a -3.6% decline. There is still short-term support near $16.00 but odds are growing it will not hold this time. More conservative traders may want to exit immediately. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Current Position: Long AA stock @ $17.65

- or -

Long the March $17.00 calls (AA1119C17) Entry @ $0.98

-2nd position, Entry Feb. 25th -

New Position: Buy AA stock @ 16.84

- or -

Buy the March $17.00 calls (AA1119C17) Entry @ $0.39

02/25 AA opened at $16.84. March $17 calls opened @ $0.39
02/24 Open new positions on the bounce.
02/23 use the bounce as a new entry point.
02/22 Adjust the stop loss to $15.95
02/18 AA provides another entry point
02/14 AA hits our breakout trigger @ 17.65, Stop @ 16.25

Entry on February 14 at $17.65
Earnings Date 04/11/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 41 million
Listed on February 2nd, 2010


ACI Worldwide Inc. - close: 31.10 change: -0.21

Stop Loss: 27.80
Target(s): 33.00, 34.75
Current Gain/Loss: + 4.9%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/01 update: ACIW is still holding up pretty well and shares only saw a minor decline today. However, if the market breaks support then ACIW will probably end up retesting the $28 area. I am not suggesting new positions at this time. Our upside targets are $33.00 and $34.75.

FYI: ACIW does have options but the spreads are very wide, which puts us at a significant disadvantage.

SMALL bullish positions

Current Position: Long ACIW stock @ $29.63

Entry on February 25 at $29.63
Earnings Date 04/28/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 122 thousand
Listed on February 24th, 2010


AnnTaylor Stores - ANN - close: 23.14 change: -0.07

Stop Loss: 22.85
Target(s): 25.90, 27.85
Current Gain/Loss: - 3.0%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/01 update: I am somewhat amazed that ANN did not breakdown under the $23.00 level today. On a short-term basis the stock is poised to decline and more conservative traders will want to seriously consider an early exit now. No new positions at this time.

Small Positions

Current Position: Long ANN stock @ $23.86

- or -

Long the March $22.50 calls (ANN1119C22.5) Entry @ $2.35

02/23 New stop loss @ 22.85
02/22 New stop loss @ 22.40

Entry on February 14 at $23.86
Earnings Date 03/11/11 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.0 million
Listed on February 8th, 2010


Baxter Intl. - BAX - close: 52.19 change: -0.96

Stop Loss: 49.90
Target(s): 54.90, 57.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 0.3%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/01 update: Hmm... the market's weakness led BAX to a -1.8% decline. More than that shares failed near their February highs. This sets up for a perfect little bearish double top pattern. Odds are good that BAX will test the $51-50 zone again. I am not suggesting new bullish positions at this time. The plan was to keep our position size small to limit our risk.

FYI: The Point & Figure chart for BAX is bullish with a $73 target.

(small positions only)

Current Position: Long BAX stock @ 52.00

- or -

Long the May $55 call (BAX1121E55) Entry @ $1.05

Entry on February 22 at $52.00
Earnings Date 04/21/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 5.8 million
Listed on February 19th, 2010


Boston Scientific Corp. - BSX - close: 7.52 change: +0.36

Stop Loss: 6.85
Target(s): 7.80, 8.90
Current Gain/Loss: + 4.1%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/01 update: Shares of BSX were upgraded before the opening bell. Shares reacted by gapping open higher at $7.55 and hitting $7.69 before paring its gains. Cautious traders will want to lock in gains now since the major market indices look vulnerable. I would expect BSX to fill the gap and that means a dip back toward the $7.25-7.20 zone. No new positions at this time. The plan is to keep our position size small to limit our risk.

- (Small Positions to Limit our Risk)

Current Position: Long BSX stock @ 7.22

- or -

Long the April $7.00 calls (BSX1116D7) Entry @ $0.44

Entry on February 28 at $ 7.22
Earnings Date 04/26/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 16 million
Listed on February 26th, 2010


Gildan Activewear - GIL - close: 31.20 change: -0.78

Stop Loss: 28.99
Target(s): 34.85, 38.00
Current Gain/Loss: Unopened
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see trigger

Comments:
03/01 update: As we expected GIL hit some profit taking. It was probably exacerbated by the market's widespread declines. Shares lost -2.4% and hit $31.03 intraday. That means we are still sitting on the sidelines since our trigger to open positions was at $31.00. I am going to tweak our entry point to try and take advantage of the market's weakness. Let's move our buy-the-dip trigger down to $30.35 and we'll move our stop loss to $28.99, just under the 200-dma.

Trigger @ 30.35

Suggested Position: buy GIL stock @ 30.35

- or -

Buy the April $30 call (GIL1116D30)

03/01 Adjusted buy-the-dip trigger to $30.35
03/01 Adjusted stop loss to $28.99

Entry on March x at $xx.xx
Earnings Date 05/12/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 634 thousand
Listed on February 28th, 2010


Intuit - INTU - close: 51.42 change: -1.16

Stop Loss: 49.49
Target(s): 54.75, 59.00
Current Gain/Loss: - 0.8%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/01 update: The bounce in INTU is rolling over. Shares seem headed for a retest of support near $50.00. Wait for the dip or bounce from this level before initiating new bullish positions.

Current Position: Long INTU stock @ $51.87

- or -

Long the March $52.50 calls (INTU1119C52.5) Entry @ $1.10

- or -

Long the April $55.00 calls (INTU1116D55) Entry @ $1.05

Entry on February 25 at $51.87
Earnings Date 05/19/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.8 million
Listed on February 24th, 2010


Lincare Holdings Inc. - LNCR - close: 29.00 change: -0.34

Stop Loss: 27.95
Target(s): 29.90, 31.75
Current Gain/Loss: + 2.2%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/01 update: Normally healthcare stocks are seen as safety plays when the market gets nervous. Yet that didn't save LNCR from a little profit taking today. Shares look poised to retest support near $28.00. I am not suggesting new bullish positions at this time.

FYI: The Point & Figure chart for LNCR is bullish with a $40 target. Plus, investors will be interested to note that LNCR has relatively high short interest. The most recent data listed short interest at 11.5% of the 86-million share float. With the recent breakout this stock could see a short squeeze.

- Small Bullish Positions -

Current Position: Long LNCR stock @ 28.37

- or -

Long the March $29.00 calls (LNCR1119C29) Entry @ $0.75

03/01 The exit number below were updated for Tuesday's open
02/28 Sell Half to lock in a gain. LNCR @ $29.52 (+4.0%)
02/28 Sell Half: March $29 calls bid $0.85 (+13.3%)
02/22 New stop loss @ 27.95
02/19 New stop loss @ 27.45
02/12 Adjusted entry point to current levels.

Entry on February 14 at $28.37
Earnings Date 04/19/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 932 thousand
Listed on February 9th, 2010


Maxim Integrated Products - MXIM - close: 26.77 change: -0.81

Stop Loss: 25.95
Target(s): 29.90, 33.50
Current Gain/Loss: - 3.2%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/01 update: The action in the SOX semiconductor index was a bit worrisome. The rebound in the SOX has failed at the underside of its prior bullish channel. This does not bode well for the bulls. Meanwhile the trend for MXIM is still higher but if the SOX accelerates lower it's going to be tough for MXIM to maintain its momentum. Technicians could argue that MXIM just produced a three-candle bearish reversal pattern. I am not suggesting new bullish positions at this time. Look for MXIM to test the $26 area soon.

Current Position: Long MXIM stock @ $27.68

- or -

Long the April $30 calls (MXIM1116D30) Entry @ $0.35

Entry on February 28 at $27.68
Earnings Date 04/28/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.3 million
Listed on February 26th, 2010


Omnicom Group Inc. - OMC - close: 49.69 change: -1.21

Stop Loss: 47.65
Target(s): 54.00
Current Gain/Loss: -0.7%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/01 update: OMC tagged a new two-year high and reversed. The move today also produced a bearish engulfing (reversal) candlestick pattern. Normally these reversals need to see confirmation but it's a warning for the bulls. I am not suggesting new bullish positions at this time.

Current Position: Long OMC stock @ $50.04

- or -

Long the April $50 calls (OMC1116D50) Entry @ $1.65

Entry on February 28 at $50.04
Earnings Date 04/20/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.8 million
Listed on February 26th, 2010


Signet Jewelers Limited - SIG - close: 43.40 change: -0.47

Stop Loss: 42.65
Target(s): 49.75
Current Gain/Loss: - 4.0%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/01 update: SIG managed to hold near support in the $43 area but if the S&P 500 breaks down we can expect SIG to follow it lower. Yesterday we raised the stop loss to $42.65. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Current Position: Long SIG stock @ $45.25

- or -

Long the March $45 calls (SIG1119C45) Entry @ $1.85

02/28 New stop loss @ 42.65
02/28 Consider scaling back positions here.

Entry on February 18 at $45.25
Earnings Date 03/30/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 436 thousand
Listed on February 16th, 2010


Sony Corp. - SNE - close: 36.27 change: -0.57

Stop Loss: 34.80
Target(s): 39.90, 43.50
Current Gain/Loss: - 1.2%
Time Frame: 8 to 10 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/01 update: Tomorrow could be a rough day for SNE. The Japanese market is likely to trade lower in reaction to the weakness in New York today. If that happens then SNE will probably gap open lower tomorrow. The $35.50 level should offer some support. Readers may want to wait and see where SNE bounces before initiating new positions.

FYI: The Point & Figure chart for SNE is bullish with a $53 target.

Current Position: long SNE stock @ $36.72

- or -

Long the April $38 calls (SNE1116D38) Entry @ $0.85

Entry on March 1 at $36.72
Earnings Date 05/12/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 862 thousand
Listed on February 28th, 2010


UnitedHealth Group - UNH - close: 42.45 change: -0.13

Stop Loss: 41.95
Target(s): 44.75
Current Gain/Loss: + 3.1%
Time Frame: 8 to 10 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/01 update: Typically healthcare stocks tend to be viewed as safe haven plays when the market gets nervous. Yet we didn't see a lot of action in UNH. Of course shares didn't sell-off either. Technically the stock continue to look vulnerable to me. I remain very cautious here. More conservative traders may want to go ahead and take profits now with an early exit. No new positions at this time.

Current Position: UNH stock @ $41.15

02/26: New stop loss @ 41.95
02/22: New stop loss @ 41.80
02/17: New stop loss @ 41.49
02/12: New stop loss @ 41.25
02/12: Exit the call options early (bid $1.47 +22.5%)
02/08: New stop loss @ 40.75

Entry on January 28 at $41.15
Earnings Date 01/20/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 5.9 million
Listed on January 20th, 2010


Wyndham Worldwide - WYN - close: 30.73 change: -0.55

Stop Loss: 29.90
Target(s): 34.50, 37.50
Current Gain/Loss: - 2.2%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/01 update: WYN appears headed for round-number support near $30.00 soon. Wait for the dip or a bounce from this level before considering new bullish positions. We have a tight stop at $29.90. Readers may want to consider lowering their stop to give WYN more room to maneuver.

Current Position: Long WYN stock @ $31.45

- or -

Long the April $32 calls (WYN1116D32) Entry @ $1.15

Entry on February 28 at $31.45
Earnings Date 04/28/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.2 million
Listed on February 26th, 2010