Editor's Note:
Investors were a little nervous to hold positions over the weekend and Friday's morning bounce faded lower into the closing bell. There is certainly opportunity for headline risk. Japan is still struggling with the melting nuclear reactors. The U.N. is getting involved in the Libyan conflict and violence is growing in Bahrain and Yemen.

-James

Current Portfolio:


BULLISH Play Updates

ACI Worldwide Inc. - ACIW - close: 31.21 change: +0.62

Stop Loss: 29.35
Target(s): 33.00, 34.75
Current Gain/Loss: + 5.3%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/19 update: ACIW continues to inch higher. The stock gapped open on Friday morning and hovered there with traders buying dips near $30.88 most of the day. The recent action is encouraging although I'd probably wait for another dip or bounce near $30.00 before launching new positions. The low last week was $29.49 so I am moving our stop loss up to $29.35. Our bullish targets are $33.00 and $34.75.

FYI: ACIW does have options but the spreads are very wide, which puts us at a significant disadvantage.

SMALL bullish positions

Current Position: Long ACIW stock @ $29.63

03/19 New stop loss @ 29.35

chart:

Entry on February 25 at $29.63
Earnings Date 04/28/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 122 thousand
Listed on February 24th, 2010


Ford Motor Co. - F - close: 14.49 change: +0.23

Stop Loss: 14.19
Target(s): 16.45, 17.45
Current Gain/Loss: unopened
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see trigger

Comments:
03/19 update: There were a lot of cross currents facing Ford's stock on Friday. On a positive note one analyst firm issued positive comments and a $19 price target. Yet another firm warned that high oil and fuel prices would be a stumbling block for the auto makers. There is still concern over how the situation in Japan might affect the global supply chain for manufacturing everything from cars to electronics.

This left shares of Ford still drifting sideways as investors await more clarity. Currently we have a trigger to open bullish positions at $15.05. More aggressive traders may want to go long closer to $14.85. Should we get triggered at $15.05 we'll use a stop at $14.19. Our targets are $16.45 and $17.45.

Trigger @ $15.05

Suggested Position: Buy F stock @ $15.05

- or -

Buy the April $15 calls (F1116D15) current ask $0.50

chart:

Entry on March x at $xx.xx
Earnings Date 04/21/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 82 million
Listed on March 15th, 2010


Gildan Activewear - GIL - close: 30.65 change: -0.32

Stop Loss: 29.70
Target(s): 34.85, 38.00
Current Gain/Loss: + 0.9%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/19 update: GIL lost a little momentum on Thursday and Friday but overall shares are still consolidating sideways. At the moment GIL appears to have support near $30.00, which is now supported by its rising 50-dma. The late February low was $29.77. I am raising our stop loss to $29.70. I would prefer to wait for GIL to show a bit more strength before we consider new positions.

Current Position: long GIL stock @ 30.35

- or -

Long the April $30 call (GIL1116D30) Entry @ $1.60

03/19 New stop loss @ 29.70
03/08 Triggered $ 30.35
03/01 Adjusted buy-the-dip trigger to $30.35
03/01 Adjusted stop loss to $28.99

chart:

Entry on March 8 at $30.35
Earnings Date 05/12/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 634 thousand
Listed on February 28th, 2010


Jos. A Bank Clothiers Inc. - JOSB - close: 45.58 change: -0.14

Stop Loss: 44.75
Target(s): 49.85, 52.25
Current Gain/Loss: - 0.8%
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/19 update: JOSB has once again drifted toward the bottom of its $45-48 trading range. Readers can use this dip to support as a new entry point buy the stock (or calls) but if the market rolls over again JOSB has a good chance of breaking down.

FYI: The most recent data listed short interest at almost 25% of JOSB's 27.3 million-share float. There is definitely room for some short covering here. Plus, the Point & Figure chart for JOSB is bullish with a $62 target.

- Small Bullish Positions -

Current Position: Long JOSB stock @ $45.99

- or -

Long the April $50 calls (JOSB1116D50) Entry @ $0.95

chart:

Entry on March 7 at $45.99
Earnings Date 03/30/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 355 thousand
Listed on March 5th, 2010


NVIDIA Corp. - NVDA - close: 17.62 change: -0.24

Stop Loss: 16.85
Target(s): 19.95, 21.75
Current Gain/Loss: - 3.1%
Time Frame: 4 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/19 update: NVDA continues to hover around the $17.50-18.00 area. The Friday morning pop over $18.00 didn't last and shares might retest last week's lows near $17.00. I would still consider new positions here or you could wait for a bounce near $17.00 or a new move over $18.35.

Prior Comments:
This is a very speculative, higher-risk trade. Our upside targets to take profits are at $19.95 and $21.75. Remember to keep your positions small to limit your risk.

- small bullish positions -

Current Position: long NVDA stock @ $18.19

- or -

Long the April $20 calls (NVDA1116D20) Entry @ $0.72

chart:

Entry on March 14 at $18.19
Earnings Date 05/12/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 35 million
Listed on March 12th, 2010


Patterson-UTI Energy Inc. - PTEN - close: 26.84 change: -0.65

Stop Loss: 25.95
Target(s): 31.50, 34.00
Current Gain/Loss: unopened
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see trigger

Comments:
03/19 update: Oil stocks were mixed but oil prices reversed their intraday declines. The markets remain worried about the Middle East. Meanwhile shares of PTEN briefly traded over resistance near $28.00 on Friday morning. The stock hit $28.14 before reversing lower. Our trigger to open bullish positions is at $28.25 so we're still sitting on the sidelines.

Prior Comments:
The $30.00 mark might offer some resistance but I'm targeting a climb to $31.50 and the $34.00 levels.

Trigger @ 28.25

Suggested Position: buy PTEN stock @ 28.25

- or -

Buy the May $30 calls (PTEN1121E30) current ask $0.90

chart:

Entry on March x at $xx.xx
Earnings Date 04/28/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.8 million
Listed on March 17th, 2010


Weyerhaeuser Co. - WY - close: 24.39 change: +0.07

Stop Loss: 22.95
Target(s): 27.25, 29.25
Current Gain/Loss: - 1.1%
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/19 update: WY saw a pop higher on Friday morning but the rally stalled at resistance near $25.00. WY should have some technical support at its rising 50-dma. I would consider new bullish positions on a dip into the $24.00-23.50 zone.

Prior Comments:
Keep your positions small to limit your risk.

Suggested Position: long WY stock @ $24.68

- or -

Long the July $25 calls (WY1116G25) Entry @ $1.64

chart:

Entry on March 16 at $24.68
Earnings Date 04/29/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 6.4 million
Listed on March 15th, 2010


BEARISH Play Updates

Lennar Corp. - LEN - close: 19.67 change: +0.38

Stop Loss: 20.25
Target(s): 16.75
Current Gain/Loss: - 1.0%
Time Frame: 1 to 2 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/19 update: Hmm.... the bounce in LEN was pretty strong on Friday (+1.9%). It definitely outperformed the broader market. The stock should still have overhead resistance near $20.00 and its 50-dma. Readers may want to wait for LEN to produce a new failed rally move near $20 before initiating new bearish positions.

I would keep our position size small to limit our risk or consider buying the puts so you know exactly how much capital you have at risk.

Please note that this is a short-term play. Earnings are due out in late March. LEN could report a week from now but the date is unconfirmed.

FYI: I do want to point out that the most recent data listed short interest on LEN at 21% of the 159 million-share float. That is a high amount of short interest and raises the risk of a short squeeze although we are certainly not expecting a short squeeze with the market in decline.

- Small Bearish Positions -

Current Position: short LEN stock @ 19.47

- or -

Long the April $19 puts (LEN1116P19) Entry @ $0.80

chart:

Entry on March 17 at $19.47
Earnings Date 03/24/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.3 million
Listed on March 16th, 2010


Overseas Shipholding Group - OSG - close: 30.29 change: +0.16

Stop Loss: 33.55
Target(s): 27.75, 25.25
Current Gain/Loss: + 5.9%
Time Frame: 8 to 9 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/19 update: The rally in shipping rates has stalled this past week (via the Baltic Dry Index, $BDI) and this has not been healthy for OSG. The stock failed to see much of a bounce on Friday. Granted the $30.00 level was probably a magnet for OSG due to March option expiration. I would not be surprised to see a little oversold bounce into the $31.50-32.00 zone and that's where I would look for a new bearish entry point.

Our plan was to use small positions to limit our risk. The P&F chart is forecasting a $25 target.

- Small Bearish Positions -

Current Position: Short OSG stock @ $32.20

- or -

Long the April $30 PUTS (OSG1116P30) Entry @ $0.75

03/16 New stop loss @ 33.55

chart:

Entry on March 11 at $32.20
Earnings Date 05/04/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 705 thousand
Listed on March 10th, 2010