Editor's Note:
The oversold bounce was picking up speed. It was encouraging to see the small cap stocks performing well. Fueling today's gains was news that Japan was making progress cooling its troubled nuclear reactors. The U.N. forces were successful in knocking out Gaddafi's air force and taking the pressure off of the Libyan rebels. News that AT&T (T) would spend $39 billion to buy its rival T-Mobile from Deutsche Telekom was seen as a sign of confidence by Wall Street. The acquisition would leapfrog AT&T into the largest U.S. carrier, past Verizon.

-James

Current Portfolio:


BULLISH Play Updates

ACI Worldwide Inc. - ACIW - close: 32.00 change: +0.79

Stop Loss: 29.35
Target(s): 33.00, 34.75
Current Gain/Loss: + 8.0%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/21 update: ACIW contniues to rally with shares adding +2.5% today. News that ACIW had purchased ISD Corporation, a secure payment management software company, failed to slow down ACIW's gains. Financial details were not disclosed. I would still consider bullish positions in ACIW on dips near the $31-30 zone. Our bullish targets are $33.00 and $34.75.

FYI: ACIW does have options but the spreads are very wide, which puts us at a significant disadvantage.

SMALL bullish positions

Current Position: Long ACIW stock @ $29.63

03/19 New stop loss @ 29.35

Entry on February 25 at $29.63
Earnings Date 04/28/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 122 thousand
Listed on February 24th, 2010


Dick's Sporting Goods Inc. - DKS - close: 39.51 change: +0.43

Stop Loss: 36.75
Target(s): 42.25, 44.50
Current Gain/Loss: +0.3%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/21 update: As expected DKS continued to bounce on Monday. Our plan was to launch small bullish positions at the open. I would still consider new positions now. Or you could wait for a dip into the $38.50-37.50 zone. I'm suggesting profit targets at $42.25 and $44.50.

FYI: The Point & Figure chart for DKS is bullish with a $65 target.

- Small Positions -

Current Position: Long DKS stock @ $39.39

- or -

Long the June $40 calls (DKS1118F40) Entry @ $2.35

Entry on March 21 at $39.39
Earnings Date 05/18/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.6 million
Listed on March 19th, 2010


Ford Motor Co. - F - close: 14.59 change: +0.10

Stop Loss: 14.19
Target(s): 16.45, 17.45
Current Gain/Loss: unopened
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see trigger

Comments:
03/21 update: Investors must still be feeling cautious on Ford. The stock gapped open this morning but failed to breakout past short-term resistance at $14.80. Gains were limited. The stock added +0.69%. Aggressive traders may want to go long over $14.80. I am suggesting a trigger at $15.05. Should we get triggered at $15.05 we'll use a stop at $14.19. Our targets are $16.45 and $17.45.

Trigger @ $15.05

Suggested Position: Buy F stock @ $15.05

- or -

Buy the April $15 calls (F1116D15) current ask $0.50

Entry on March x at $xx.xx
Earnings Date 04/21/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 82 million
Listed on March 15th, 2010


Gildan Activewear - GIL - close: 31.33 change: +0.68

Stop Loss: 29.70
Target(s): 34.85, 38.00
Current Gain/Loss: + 3.2%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/21 update: Monday proved to be a little bit of a rocky day for GIL. When it was all said and done GIL added +2.2%. I'm cautiously bullish here. However, instead of buying GIL I am starting to think there are better candidates for our money right now.

Current Position: long GIL stock @ 30.35

- or -

Long the April $30 call (GIL1116D30) Entry @ $1.60

03/19 New stop loss @ 29.70
03/08 Triggered $ 30.35
03/01 Adjusted buy-the-dip trigger to $30.35
03/01 Adjusted stop loss to $28.99

Entry on March 8 at $30.35
Earnings Date 05/12/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 634 thousand
Listed on February 28th, 2010


Jos. A Bank Clothiers Inc. - JOSB - close: 45.95 change: +0.38

Stop Loss: 44.75
Target(s): 49.85, 52.25
Current Gain/Loss: - 0.0%
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/21 update: Uh-oh! The stock market was in a widespread rally mode but the action in JOSB doesn't look very enticing. The stock did add +0.8% but that was definitely below average today. If we see another bounce from the $45.00 level then I might buy JOSB. Otherwise I would wait.

FYI: The most recent data listed short interest at almost 25% of JOSB's 27.3 million-share float. There is definitely room for some short covering here. Plus, the Point & Figure chart for JOSB is bullish with a $62 target.

- Small Bullish Positions -

Current Position: Long JOSB stock @ $45.99

- or -

Long the April $50 calls (JOSB1116D50) Entry @ $0.95

Entry on March 7 at $45.99
Earnings Date 03/30/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 355 thousand
Listed on March 5th, 2010


NVIDIA Corp. - NVDA - close: 17.76 change: +0.14

Stop Loss: 16.85
Target(s): 19.95, 21.75
Current Gain/Loss: - 2.3%
Time Frame: 4 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/21 update: Strength in the tech sector on Monday was very encouraging but NVDA did not truly participate. The SOX semiconductor index was up +1.8% and the NASDAQ composite closed up +1.8% yet NVDA only gained +0.7%.

NVDA is consolidating sideways near this key support level. Yet the consolidation has a neutral pattern of higher lows and lower highs. Unfortunately while this is supposed to be a neutral pattern the prevailing trend usually wins out and for NVDA that trend is down.

Wait for another dip or bounce at $17.00 or wait for a move over $18.35 before launching new bullish positions.

Prior Comments:
This is a very speculative, higher-risk trade. Our upside targets to take profits are at $19.95 and $21.75. Remember to keep your positions small to limit your risk.

- small bullish positions -

Current Position: long NVDA stock @ $18.19

- or -

Long the April $20 calls (NVDA1116D20) Entry @ $0.72

Entry on March 14 at $18.19
Earnings Date 05/12/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 35 million
Listed on March 12th, 2010


Patterson-UTI Energy Inc. - PTEN - close: 27.88 change: +1.04

Stop Loss: 25.95
Target(s): 31.50, 34.00
Current Gain/Loss: unopened
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see trigger

Comments:
03/21 update: Energy stocks were strong performers today. PTEN added +3.8% but remains under resistance at the $28.00 level. Our trigger to open bullish positions is at $28.25 so we're still sitting on the sidelines.

Prior Comments:
The $30.00 mark might offer some resistance but I'm targeting a climb to $31.50 and the $34.00 levels.

Trigger @ 28.25

Suggested Position: buy PTEN stock @ 28.25

- or -

Buy the May $30 calls (PTEN1121E30) current ask $0.90

Entry on March x at $xx.xx
Earnings Date 04/28/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.8 million
Listed on March 17th, 2010


Southwestern Energy Co. - SWN - close: 41.61 change: +0.49

Stop Loss: 37.95
Target(s): 44.85
Current Gain/Loss: unopened
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see trigger

Comments:
03/21 update: The strength in energy stocks lifted SWN to a +1.1% gain but volume was significantly lower than what the stock saw last week. There is no change from my weekend comments.

I am suggesting we launch bullish positions on a dip at $40.25 since resistance at $40.00 should be new support. More conservative traders might want to wait and hope for a dip closer to the $39.00 area. If we are triggered at $40.25 we'll use a stop loss at $37.95. Our firs target is $44.85.

FYI: The Point & Figure chart for SWN recently broke out past resistance and is now signaling a bullish target of $51.

Buy-the-Dip Trigger @ $40.25

Suggested Position: Buy SWN stock @ 40.25

- or -

Buy the June $42 calls (SWN1118F42) current ask $2.53

Entry on March x at $xx.xx
Earnings Date 04/28/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 6.9 million
Listed on March 19th, 2010


Weyerhaeuser Co. - WY - close: 25.06 change: +0.67

Stop Loss: 22.95
Target(s): 27.25, 29.25
Current Gain/Loss: + 1.5%
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/21 update: WY was showing relative strength today. The stock added +2.7% and managed to close over round-number resistance at the $25.00 mark. Personally I would prefer to launch new positions on a dip near $24.00.

Prior Comments:
Keep your positions small to limit your risk.

Suggested Position: long WY stock @ $24.68

- or -

Long the July $25 calls (WY1116G25) Entry @ $1.64

Entry on March 16 at $24.68
Earnings Date 04/29/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 6.4 million
Listed on March 15th, 2010


BEARISH Play Updates

Lennar Corp. - LEN - close: 19.82 change: +0.15

Stop Loss: 20.25
Target(s): 16.75
Current Gain/Loss: - 1.8%
Time Frame: 1 to 2 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/21 update: Why homebuilders like LEN would be rising today is a mystery. Well, actually it's not. LEN is probably rising due to the widespread market gains. However, the homebuilders should be struggling. This morning's existing home sales report was terrible. The National Association of Realtors said sales fell 9.6% and prices fell to their lowest levels in nine years. Plunging prices is going to squeeze margins on the new homebuilders.

Yet we can't fight the market's trend. I still see resistance near $20.00 for LEN but more conservative traders may want to exit early. I am not suggesting new bearish positions at this time.

Our plan called for small positions to limit our risk. LEN is expected to report earnings on March 29th. If our play lasts that long we will exit prior to the announcement to avoid holding over earnings.

FYI: I do want to point out that the most recent data listed short interest on LEN at 21% of the 159 million-share float. That is a high amount of short interest and raises the risk of a short squeeze although we are certainly not expecting a short squeeze with the market in decline.

- Small Bearish Positions -

Current Position: short LEN stock @ 19.47

- or -

Long the April $19 puts (LEN1116P19) Entry @ $0.80

Entry on March 17 at $19.47
Earnings Date 03/24/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.3 million
Listed on March 16th, 2010


Overseas Shipholding Group - OSG - close: 31.03 change: +0.74

Stop Loss: 33.55
Target(s): 27.75, 25.25
Current Gain/Loss: + 3.6%
Time Frame: 8 to 9 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/21 update: We were expecting an oversold bounce in OSG so today's gain was not a surprise. Look for resistance in the $31.50-32.00 zone. A failed rally in this area could be used as a new bearish entry point. We might want to consider lowering our stop loss toward the $33.25 or $33.00 levels.

Our plan was to use small positions to limit our risk. The P&F chart is forecasting a $25 target.

- Small Bearish Positions -

Current Position: Short OSG stock @ $32.20

- or -

Long the April $30 PUTS (OSG1116P30) Entry @ $0.75

03/16 New stop loss @ 33.55

Entry on March 11 at $32.20
Earnings Date 05/04/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 705 thousand
Listed on March 10th, 2010