Editor's Note:
The market's oversold bounce has stalled at resistance. It could be a case of bulls catching their breath. I found it interesting that while most stocks trended lower today the volatility index (VIX) did too. Normally the VIX rises as stocks fall. That might suggest traders are not worried about today's declines.

-James

Current Portfolio:


BULLISH Play Updates

ACI Worldwide Inc. - ACIW - close: 32.13 change: +0.13

Stop Loss: 29.75
Target(s): 32.85, 34.75
Current Gain/Loss: + 8.4%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/22 update: ACIW posted a minor gain but spent Tuesday's session in a tight range trading sideways. I don't see many changes from my prior comments. The early March highs found resistance near $33.00. I am adjusting our first exit target down from $33.00 to $32.80. We'll adjust our stop loss higher to $29.75. Our final target is $34.75.

FYI: ACIW does have options but the spreads are very wide, which puts us at a significant disadvantage.

SMALL bullish positions

Current Position: Long ACIW stock @ $29.63

03/22 New stop loss @ 29.75, 1st Target adjusted to $32.85
03/19 New stop loss @ 29.35

Entry on February 25 at $29.63
Earnings Date 04/28/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 122 thousand
Listed on February 24th, 2010


Dick's Sporting Goods Inc. - DKS - close: 39.52 change: +0.01

Stop Loss: 36.75
Target(s): 42.25, 44.50
Current Gain/Loss: +0.3%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/22 update: Tuesday proved to be a very forgettable day for DKS. The stock's early morning rally stalled at $40.00 and shares closed virtually unchanged on the session. Readers may want to wait for a dip near $38.50 before considering new bullish positions. I'm suggesting profit targets at $42.25 and $44.50.

FYI: The Point & Figure chart for DKS is bullish with a $65 target.

- Small Positions -

Current Position: Long DKS stock @ $39.39

- or -

Long the June $40 calls (DKS1118F40) Entry @ $2.35

Entry on March 21 at $39.39
Earnings Date 05/18/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.6 million
Listed on March 19th, 2010


Ford Motor Co. - F - close: 14.34 change: -0.25

Stop Loss: 14.19
Target(s): 16.45, 17.45
Current Gain/Loss: unopened
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see trigger

Comments:
03/22 update: The action in Ford today was not very encouraging. The morning saw shares fail near short-term resistance around the $14.80 area. The stock settled with a -1.7% decline, which was a lot worse than the major averages. Ford might be poised to retest its recent lows near $13.80. Nimble traders might consider trying to buy a dip or bounce near $13.80 but we will keep our entry point strategy unchanged for now with a trigger to open bullish positions at $15.05.

Trigger @ $15.05

Suggested Position: Buy F stock @ $15.05

- or -

Buy the April $15 calls (F1116D15) current ask $0.50

Entry on March x at $xx.xx
Earnings Date 04/21/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 82 million
Listed on March 15th, 2010


Gildan Activewear - GIL - close: 32.10 change: +0.77

Stop Loss: 29.70
Target(s): 34.85, 38.00
Current Gain/Loss: + 5.7%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/22 update: Hmm... GIL displayed strength today and witnessed an intraday spike to $33.17 (an intraday rally of +5.8%). Unfortunately shares pared their gains to just +2.4%. Volume was above average on today's move. Oddly enough I could not find any company-specific news to account for today's rally in GIL. I suspect it was another company's earnings report.

The $32 level has been resistance in the past and a bounce from current levels near $32 would be encouraging. I am not suggesting new bullish positions at this time.

Current Position: long GIL stock @ 30.35

- or -

Long the April $30 call (GIL1116D30) Entry @ $1.60

03/19 New stop loss @ 29.70
03/08 Triggered $ 30.35
03/01 Adjusted buy-the-dip trigger to $30.35
03/01 Adjusted stop loss to $28.99

Entry on March 8 at $30.35
Earnings Date 05/12/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 634 thousand
Listed on February 28th, 2010


Jos. A Bank Clothiers Inc. - JOSB - close: 45.64 change: -0.31

Stop Loss: 44.75
Target(s): 49.85, 52.25
Current Gain/Loss: - 0.7%
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/22 update: The tone of trading in JOSB seems to be growing more bearish. The most recent bounce from support is already rolling over and JOSB is poised to retest the $45 level again. Traders may want to buy a dip or a bounce from the $45.00 level but I'm starting to think JOSB might actually breakdown from its trading range this time.

FYI: The most recent data listed short interest at almost 25% of JOSB's 27.3 million-share float. There is definitely room for some short covering here. Plus, the Point & Figure chart for JOSB is bullish with a $62 target.

- Small Bullish Positions -

Current Position: Long JOSB stock @ $45.99

- or -

Long the April $50 calls (JOSB1116D50) Entry @ $0.95

Entry on March 7 at $45.99
Earnings Date 03/30/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 355 thousand
Listed on March 5th, 2010


NVIDIA Corp. - NVDA - close: 17.45 change: -0.32

Stop Loss: 16.85
Target(s): 19.95, 21.75
Current Gain/Loss: - 4.0%
Time Frame: 4 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/22 update: Yesterday's strength in the semiconductor stocks failed to return. That is not good news for NVDA. I warned readers yesterday that the neutral (pennant) consolidation in shares of NVDA could see a bearish breakdown. Today's action appears to be a breakdown from that pattern. Conservative traders will want to consider an early exit now! There is still a chance NVDA will bounce from the $17.00 level like it did last week.

Wait for another dip or bounce at $17.00 or wait for a move over $18.35 before launching new bullish positions.

Prior Comments:
This is a very speculative, higher-risk trade. Our upside targets to take profits are at $19.95 and $21.75. Remember to keep your positions small to limit your risk.

- small bullish positions -

Current Position: long NVDA stock @ $18.19

- or -

Long the April $20 calls (NVDA1116D20) Entry @ $0.72

Entry on March 14 at $18.19
Earnings Date 05/12/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 35 million
Listed on March 12th, 2010


Patterson-UTI Energy Inc. - PTEN - close: 27.53 change: -0.35

Stop Loss: 25.95
Target(s): 31.50, 34.00
Current Gain/Loss: unopened
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see trigger

Comments:
03/22 update: Once again PTEN has seen its rally stall near resistance at $28.00. We are still waiting for a breakout. Our trigger to open bullish positions is at $28.25 so we're still sitting on the sidelines.

Prior Comments:
The $30.00 mark might offer some resistance but I'm targeting a climb to $31.50 and the $34.00 levels.

Trigger @ 28.25

Suggested Position: buy PTEN stock @ 28.25

- or -

Buy the May $30 calls (PTEN1121E30) current ask $0.90

Entry on March x at $xx.xx
Earnings Date 04/28/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.8 million
Listed on March 17th, 2010


Southwestern Energy Co. - SWN - close: 42.03 change: +0.42

Stop Loss: 37.95
Target(s): 44.85
Current Gain/Loss: unopened
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see trigger

Comments:
03/22 update: SWN is still showing relative strength. The stock gained +1% and posted its eighth gain in a row. Shares are growing overbought here and will eventually see a pull back.

I am suggesting we launch bullish positions on a dip at $40.25 since broken resistance at $40.00 should be new support. More conservative traders might want to wait and hope for a dip closer to the $39.00 area. If we are triggered at $40.25 we'll use a stop loss at $37.95. Our firs target is $44.85.

FYI: The Point & Figure chart for SWN recently broke out past resistance and is now signaling a bullish target of $51.

Buy-the-Dip Trigger @ $40.25

Suggested Position: Buy SWN stock @ 40.25

- or -

Buy the June $42 calls (SWN1118F42) current ask $2.53

Entry on March x at $xx.xx
Earnings Date 04/28/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 6.9 million
Listed on March 19th, 2010


Tesoro Corp - TSO - close: 25.49 change: -0.14

Stop Loss: 23.95
Target(s): 29.90
Current Gain/Loss: unopened
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see trigger

Comments:
03/22 update: There are no changes from my prior comments on TSO. Shares spent the day consolidating sideways. Readers can choose to open bullish positions on a move past $26.00 or wait for a move past the March 14th high of $26.72.

I am suggesting we buy TSO at $26.15 and we'll put our stop loss at $23.95. Given the stock's recent volatility over the last month or so I would consider this a higher-risk trade. Keep your position size small.

FYI: The most recent data listed short interest in TSO at more than 13% of the stock's 141 million-share float. A breakout past resistance could spark another short squeeze.

Trigger @ 26.15

Suggested Position: Buy TSO stock @ 26.15

- or -

Buy the May $27.00 calls (TSO1121E27) current ask $1.55

Entry on March x at $xx.xx
Earnings Date 04/25/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 8.2 million
Listed on March 21st, 2010


Weyerhaeuser Co. - WY - close: 24.49 change: -0.57

Stop Loss: 22.95
Target(s): 27.25, 29.25
Current Gain/Loss: - 0.7%
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/22 update: I have to issue a potential bearish reversal alert for WY. Today's action has created a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern. Normally these reversals need to see follow through. Instead of buying a dip near $24.00 readers may want to wait and buy the next bounce from $24.00 or off the rising 50-dma.

Prior Comments:
Keep your positions small to limit your risk.

Suggested Position: long WY stock @ $24.68

- or -

Long the July $25 calls (WY1116G25) Entry @ $1.64

Entry on March 16 at $24.68
Earnings Date 04/29/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 6.4 million
Listed on March 15th, 2010


BEARISH Play Updates

Lennar Corp. - LEN - close: 19.52 change: -0.30

Stop Loss: 20.25
Target(s): 16.75
Current Gain/Loss: - 0.2%
Time Frame: 1 to 2 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/22 update: Today's -1.5% decline in LEN looks like a failed rally under resistance near $20.00 and its 50-dma. Readers can use this move as a new entry point to open bearish positions.

Our plan called for small positions to limit our risk. LEN is expected to report earnings on March 29th. If our play lasts that long we will exit prior to the announcement to avoid holding over earnings.

FYI: I do want to point out that the most recent data listed short interest on LEN at 21% of the 159 million-share float. That is a high amount of short interest and raises the risk of a short squeeze although we are certainly not expecting a short squeeze with the market in decline.

- Small Bearish Positions -

Current Position: short LEN stock @ 19.47

- or -

Long the April $19 puts (LEN1116P19) Entry @ $0.80

Entry on March 17 at $19.47
Earnings Date 03/24/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.3 million
Listed on March 16th, 2010


Overseas Shipholding Group - OSG - close: 31.60 change: +0.57

Stop Loss: 33.55
Target(s): 27.75, 25.25
Current Gain/Loss: + 1.8%
Time Frame: 8 to 9 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/22 update: Entry point alert! The oversold bounce in OSG continues. Shares rallied to and stalled at the $32.00 level. I have been suggesting readers wait for a bounce near resistance at $32.00 as our next entry point to open bearish trades. We might want to consider lowering our stop loss toward the $33.25 or $33.00 levels.

Our plan was to use small positions to limit our risk. The P&F chart is forecasting a $25 target.

- Small Bearish Positions -

Current Position: Short OSG stock @ $32.20

- or -

Long the April $30 PUTS (OSG1116P30) Entry @ $0.75

03/16 New stop loss @ 33.55

Entry on March 11 at $32.20
Earnings Date 05/04/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 705 thousand
Listed on March 10th, 2010