Editor's Note:
The stock market's rebound off its Wednesday morning lows is encouraging but overall we didn't see a lot of action tonight. I am suggesting we take some money off the table in our ACIW play. NVDA might be offering us a new entry point. Readers should be cautious with our LEN trade.

-James

Current Portfolio:


BULLISH Play Updates

ACI Worldwide Inc. - ACIW - close: 32.11 change: -0.02

Stop Loss: 29.75
Target(s): 32.85, 34.75
Current Gain/Loss: + 8.3%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/23 update: Hmm... we're not seeing any movement in ACIW. Shares have spent almost three days hugging the $32.00 level and volume has been elevated all three days. Are we seeing distribution (a.k.a. selling) at these levels? This is a caution signal for me. Let's go ahead and take some money off the table. I'm suggesting we sell at least half of our position now! We'll adjust our exit for tomorrow's open. No new positions at this time. Our final target is $34.75.

FYI: ACIW does have options but the spreads are very wide, which puts us at a significant disadvantage.

SMALL bullish positions

Current Position: Long ACIW stock @ $29.63

03/24 first exit was at $xx.xx
03/23 Sell half now! ACIW currently @ $32.11 (+8.3%)
03/22 New stop loss @ 29.75, 1st Target adjusted to $32.85
03/19 New stop loss @ 29.35

Entry on February 25 at $29.63
Earnings Date 04/28/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 122 thousand
Listed on February 24th, 2010


Dick's Sporting Goods Inc. - DKS - close: 39.59 change: +0.07

Stop Loss: 36.75
Target(s): 42.25, 44.50
Current Gain/Loss: +0.5%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/23 update: The major market indices are churning sideways the last couple of days and we're seeing similar churn in DKS. The stock is bouncing around the $39-40 zone. Currently I'm suggesting readers look for dips into the $38.50-38.00 area as our next potential entry point. I'm suggesting profit targets at $42.25 and $44.50.

FYI: The Point & Figure chart for DKS is bullish with a $65 target.

- Small Positions -

Current Position: Long DKS stock @ $39.39

- or -

Long the June $40 calls (DKS1118F40) Entry @ $2.35

Entry on March 21 at $39.39
Earnings Date 05/18/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.6 million
Listed on March 19th, 2010


Ford Motor Co. - F - close: 14.31 change: -0.03

Stop Loss: 14.19
Target(s): 16.45, 17.45
Current Gain/Loss: unopened
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see trigger

Comments:
03/23 update: It's not looking good for Ford. Shares dipped to $14.00 intraday and eventually closed lower on the session. There is no change from my prior comments.

Nimble traders might consider trying to buy a dip or bounce near $13.80 with a very tight stop but the newsletter will keep our entry point strategy unchanged for now with a trigger to open bullish positions at $15.05.

Trigger @ $15.05

Suggested Position: Buy F stock @ $15.05

- or -

Buy the April $15 calls (F1116D15) current ask $0.50

Entry on March x at $xx.xx
Earnings Date 04/21/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 82 million
Listed on March 15th, 2010


Gildan Activewear - GIL - close: 31.96 change: -0.14

Stop Loss: 29.70
Target(s): 34.85, 38.00
Current Gain/Loss: + 5.3%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/23 update: Wednesday was a quiet day for GIL with shares drifting sideways in a narrow range. I still haven't seen any headlines to explain yesterday's spike higher. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Current Position: long GIL stock @ 30.35

- or -

Long the April $30 call (GIL1116D30) Entry @ $1.60

03/19 New stop loss @ 29.70
03/08 Triggered $ 30.35
03/01 Adjusted buy-the-dip trigger to $30.35
03/01 Adjusted stop loss to $28.99

Entry on March 8 at $30.35
Earnings Date 05/12/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 634 thousand
Listed on February 28th, 2010


Jos. A Bank Clothiers Inc. - JOSB - close: 46.00 change: +0.36

Stop Loss: 44.75
Target(s): 49.85, 52.25
Current Gain/Loss: + 0.0%
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/23 update: Once again traders have bought the dip in JOSB near support at $45.00. Shares traded down to $44.93 before reversing into positive territory. There is no change from my prior comments.

FYI: The most recent data listed short interest at almost 25% of JOSB's 27.3 million-share float. There is definitely room for some short covering here. Plus, the Point & Figure chart for JOSB is bullish with a $62 target.

- Small Bullish Positions -

Current Position: Long JOSB stock @ $45.99

- or -

Long the April $50 calls (JOSB1116D50) Entry @ $0.95

Entry on March 7 at $45.99
Earnings Date 03/30/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 355 thousand
Listed on March 5th, 2010


NVIDIA Corp. - NVDA - close: 17.81 change: +0.37

Stop Loss: 16.85
Target(s): 19.95, 21.75
Current Gain/Loss: - 2.0%
Time Frame: 4 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/23 update: It was an interesting day for NVDA. I've been telling readers that NVDA could bounce from its recent lows near $17.00. Sure enough the stock dipped to $17.04 and rallied. This has the potential to be a new bullish double bottom pattern. I remain cautious here but readers could definitely buy this bounce. An alternative entry point would be to wait for a move over $18.35.

Prior Comments:
This is a very speculative, higher-risk trade. Our upside targets to take profits are at $19.95 and $21.75. Remember to keep your positions small to limit your risk.

- small bullish positions -

Current Position: long NVDA stock @ $18.19

- or -

Long the April $20 calls (NVDA1116D20) Entry @ $0.72

Entry on March 14 at $18.19
Earnings Date 05/12/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 35 million
Listed on March 12th, 2010


Polycom Inc. - PLCM - close: 49.06 change: -1.32

Stop Loss: 46.90
Target(s): 54.85,
Current Gain/Loss: - 2.3%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/23 update: Uh-oh! Our new PLCM play is not off to a good start. Shares immediately sank at the open and closed with a -2.6% loss. It could have been a reaction to news this morning that PLCM purchased Accordent Technologies for $50 million but I doubt it. PLCM has revenues of more than $1.2 billion. A $50 million deal shouldn't be that big of a deal.

Readers may want to wait for a bounce from $48 or $49 before considering new bullish positions. More conservative traders might want to raise their stops closer to the $48.00 level, which should be short-term support. Our upside target is $54.85. I would be tempted to aim higher but we want to exit ahead of the late April earnings report.

FYI: The Point & Figure chart for PLCM is bullish with a $75 target.

- Small Bullish Positions -

Current Position: Long PLCM stock @ $50.18

- or -

Long the May $52.50 calls (PLCM1121E52.5) Entry @ $2.00

03/23 Entry price on the May $52.50 call is an estimate.

Entry on March 23 at $50.18
Earnings Date 04/21/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 967 thousand
Listed on March 22nd, 2011


Patterson-UTI Energy Inc. - PTEN - close: 27.37 change: -0.16

Stop Loss: 25.95
Target(s): 31.50, 34.00
Current Gain/Loss: unopened
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see trigger

Comments:
03/23 update: We are still waiting for PTEN to breakout past $28.00. Our trigger to open bullish positions is at $28.25 so we're still sitting on the sidelines.

Prior Comments:
The $30.00 mark might offer some resistance but I'm targeting a climb to $31.50 and the $34.00 levels.

Trigger @ 28.25

Suggested Position: buy PTEN stock @ 28.25

- or -

Buy the May $30 calls (PTEN1121E30) current ask $0.90

Entry on March x at $xx.xx
Earnings Date 04/28/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.8 million
Listed on March 17th, 2010


Southwestern Energy Co. - SWN - close: 42.51 change: +0.48

Stop Loss: 37.95
Target(s): 44.85
Current Gain/Loss: unopened
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see trigger

Comments:
03/23 update: The relative strength is impressive but SWN continues to grow more and more overbought. I would not chase it here.

I am suggesting we launch bullish positions on a dip at $40.25 since broken resistance at $40.00 should be new support. More conservative traders might want to wait and hope for a dip closer to the $39.00 area. If we are triggered at $40.25 we'll use a stop loss at $37.95. Our firs target is $44.85.

FYI: The Point & Figure chart for SWN recently broke out past resistance and is now signaling a bullish target of $51.

Buy-the-Dip Trigger @ $40.25

Suggested Position: Buy SWN stock @ 40.25

- or -

Buy the June $42 calls (SWN1118F42) current ask $2.53

Entry on March x at $xx.xx
Earnings Date 04/28/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 6.9 million
Listed on March 19th, 2010


Tesoro Corp - TSO - close: 25.49 change: +0.00

Stop Loss: 23.95
Target(s): 29.90
Current Gain/Loss: unopened
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see trigger

Comments:
03/23 update: It was a quiet day for TSO and the stock closed unchanged for the session. Readers can choose to open bullish positions on a move past $26.00 or wait for a move past the March 14th high of $26.72.

I am suggesting we buy TSO at $26.15 and we'll put our stop loss at $23.95. Given the stock's recent volatility over the last month or so I would consider this a higher-risk trade. Keep your position size small.

FYI: The most recent data listed short interest in TSO at more than 13% of the stock's 141 million-share float. A breakout past resistance could spark another short squeeze.

Trigger @ 26.15

Suggested Position: Buy TSO stock @ 26.15

- or -

Buy the May $27.00 calls (TSO1121E27) current ask $1.55

Entry on March x at $xx.xx
Earnings Date 04/25/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 8.2 million
Listed on March 21st, 2010


Weyerhaeuser Co. - WY - close: 24.50 change: +0.01

Stop Loss: 22.95
Target(s): 27.25, 29.25
Current Gain/Loss: - 0.7%
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/23 update: Nothing has changed for us with WY. The stock hovered around the $24.50 level all day long. Instead of buying a dip near $24.00 readers may want to wait and buy the next bounce from $24.00 or off the rising 50-dma.

Prior Comments:
Keep your positions small to limit your risk.

Suggested Position: long WY stock @ $24.68

- or -

Long the July $25 calls (WY1116G25) Entry @ $1.64

Entry on March 16 at $24.68
Earnings Date 04/29/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 6.4 million
Listed on March 15th, 2010


BEARISH Play Updates

Lennar Corp. - LEN - close: 19.75 change: +0.23

Stop Loss: 20.25
Target(s): 16.75
Current Gain/Loss: - 1.4%
Time Frame: 1 to 2 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/23 update: Traders need to be cautious on LEN. The bounce in this stock today is a mystery. Shares should be plunging lower! The new home sales data released this morning fell to an all-time record low of a seasonally adjusted 250,000 in February. Economists were expecting something closer to the 290K-300K range. Month over month, sales of new homes plunged -17% from January to February and -28% from a year ago. Granted January and February are normally weak months for the housing market and this most recent January and February was hampered even more by the massive blizzards across the U.S. Yet this terrible data does not support a +1.1% bounce in shares of LEN today.

Fundamentally I'm bearish on LEN but we have to respect the price. More conservative traders may want to exit early right now. I am not suggesting new positions until we see a new failed rally under the $20.00 mark.

FYI: I do want to point out that the most recent data listed short interest on LEN at 21% of the 159 million-share float. That is a high amount of short interest and raises the risk of a short squeeze although we are certainly not expecting a short squeeze with the market in decline.

- Small Bearish Positions -

Current Position: short LEN stock @ 19.47

- or -

Long the April $19 puts (LEN1116P19) Entry @ $0.80

Entry on March 17 at $19.47
Earnings Date 03/24/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.3 million
Listed on March 16th, 2010


Overseas Shipholding Group - OSG - close: 31.40 change: -0.20

Stop Loss: 33.55
Target(s): 27.75, 25.25
Current Gain/Loss: + 2.4%
Time Frame: 8 to 9 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/23 update: As we expected the bounce in OSG stalled but I have to point out that volume was very light on today's -0.6% decline. I remain bearish on OSG but readers might want to tighten their stop loss.

Our plan was to use small positions to limit our risk. The P&F chart is forecasting a $25 target.

- Small Bearish Positions -

Current Position: Short OSG stock @ $32.20

- or -

Long the April $30 PUTS (OSG1116P30) Entry @ $0.75

03/16 New stop loss @ 33.55

Entry on March 11 at $32.20
Earnings Date 05/04/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 705 thousand
Listed on March 10th, 2010