Editor's Note:
Ford (F), KLA-Tencor (KLAC), and Tesoro (TSO) all hit our bullish triggers to launch positions today.

-James

Current Portfolio:


BULLISH Play Updates

ACI Worldwide Inc. - ACIW - close: 32.21 change: +0.10

Stop Loss: 29.75
Target(s): --.--, 34.75
Current Gain/Loss: + 8.7%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/24 update: Last night I suggested that readers take profits early and sell half of our position. ACIW opened at $32.25 this morning (+8.8%). Unfortunately gains were limited. Shares of ACIW have been consolidating sideways in a very tight range all week long. More conservative traders may want to raise their stops. No new positions at this time. Our final target is $34.75.

FYI: ACIW does have options but the spreads are very wide, which puts us at a significant disadvantage.

SMALL bullish positions

Current Position: Long ACIW stock @ $29.63

03/24 first exit was at $32.25 (+8.8%)
03/23 Sell half now! exit price at the open on 3/24
03/22 New stop loss @ 29.75, 1st Target adjusted to $32.85
03/19 New stop loss @ 29.35

Entry on February 25 at $29.63
Earnings Date 04/28/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 122 thousand
Listed on February 24th, 2010


Dick's Sporting Goods Inc. - DKS - close: 39.98 change: +0.39

Stop Loss: 36.75
Target(s): 42.25, 44.50
Current Gain/Loss: +1.5%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/24 update: Traders continue to buy the dips in DKS and the stock is poised to breakout past the $40.00 level again. Given the market's strength readers might want consider opening small positions now at current levels or on a move above today's high ($40.24). I'm suggesting profit targets at $42.25 and $44.50.

FYI: The Point & Figure chart for DKS is bullish with a $65 target.

- Small Positions -

Current Position: Long DKS stock @ $39.39

- or -

Long the June $40 calls (DKS1118F40) Entry @ $2.35

Entry on March 21 at $39.39
Earnings Date 05/18/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.6 million
Listed on March 19th, 2010


Ford Motor Co. - F - close: 15.04 change: +0.73

Stop Loss: 14.19
Target(s): 16.45, 17.45
Current Gain/Loss: - 0.0%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/24 update: There were headlines out today from research firm IHS Automotive who estimates that the Japan disaster could cut global automobile production by 30%. One might have expected shares of Ford to fall on this news. Yet it sounds like those hardest hit will naturally be the Japanese automakers. According to a Bloomberg article today Ford has yet to see any disruptions.

In other news J.D. Power and Associates upgraded their 2011 sales forecast for Ford from 10.5 million to 10.6 million vehicles. Shares of Ford surged on the news today and rocketed to a +5% gain on strong volume. The breakout past short-term resistance at $14.80 and the $15.00 mark is bullish. Our trigger to open bullish positions was hit at $15.05.

Our play is open but readers might want to look for a dip near $14.80 before initiating new positions. Our targets are $16.45 and $17.45.

Current Position: Long F stock @ $15.05

- or -

Long the April $15 calls (F1116D15) Entry @ $0.33

chart:

Entry on March 24 at $15.05
Earnings Date 04/21/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 82 million
Listed on March 15th, 2010


Gildan Activewear - GIL - close: 31.78 change: -0.18

Stop Loss: 29.70
Target(s): 34.85, 38.00
Current Gain/Loss: + 4.7%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/24 update: Thursday was another quiet day for GIL. Shares bounced around the $31.50-32.00 area. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Current Position: long GIL stock @ 30.35

- or -

Long the April $30 call (GIL1116D30) Entry @ $1.60

03/19 New stop loss @ 29.70
03/08 Triggered $ 30.35
03/01 Adjusted buy-the-dip trigger to $30.35
03/01 Adjusted stop loss to $28.99

Entry on March 8 at $30.35
Earnings Date 05/12/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 634 thousand
Listed on February 28th, 2010


Jos. A Bank Clothiers Inc. - JOSB - close: 46.40 change: +0.40

Stop Loss: 44.75
Target(s): 49.85, 52.25
Current Gain/Loss: + 0.8%
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/24 update: JOSB continues to bounce after testing support near $45.00 yesterday. I am not suggesting new positions at these levels.

FYI: The most recent data listed short interest at almost 25% of JOSB's 27.3 million-share float. There is definitely room for some short covering here. Plus, the Point & Figure chart for JOSB is bullish with a $62 target.

- Small Bullish Positions -

Current Position: Long JOSB stock @ $45.99

- or -

Long the April $50 calls (JOSB1116D50) Entry @ $0.95

Entry on March 7 at $45.99
Earnings Date 03/30/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 355 thousand
Listed on March 5th, 2010


KLA-Tencor - KLAC - close: 47.19 change: +1.07

Stop Loss: 44.95
Target(s): 49.90
Current Gain/Loss: + 1.1%
Time Frame: 3 to 4 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/24 update: Thankfully we did not have to wait very long for KLAC to hit our trigger. A stronger than expected earnings report from Micron (MU) launched the semiconductor sector higher. Shares of KLAC opened higher at $46.58 and quickly hit our trigger to buy it at $46.65. If you missed that entry point KLAC dipped toward $46.00 again before rebounding to a +2.3% gain. Shares stalled just under their 30-dma. We might see another entry point near $46.50 on a dip tomorrow. Our target is $49.90.

Current Position: Long KLAC stock @ $46.65

- or -

Long the April $45 calls (KLAC1116D45) Entry @ $2.85

chart:

Entry on March 24 at $46.65
Earnings Date 04/28/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.5 million
Listed on March 23rd, 2011


NVIDIA Corp. - NVDA - close: 19.23 change: +1.42

Stop Loss: 16.85
Target(s): 19.95, 21.75
Current Gain/Loss: + 5.7%
Time Frame: 4 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/24 update: The strength in chip stocks helped fuel strong gains in NVDA. The stock broke out past the $18.00 level and its 100-dma and eventually settled with a +7.9% gain on the session. I wouldn't chase it here. NVDA might provide a dip into the $18.50-18.25 area, which is where we might want to consider new bullish positions.

Our first target to take profits is at $19.95. Our second target is $21.75.

Prior Comments:
This is a very speculative, higher-risk trade. Remember to keep your positions small to limit your risk.

- small bullish positions -

Current Position: long NVDA stock @ $18.19

- or -

Long the April $20 calls (NVDA1116D20) Entry @ $0.72

Entry on March 14 at $18.19
Earnings Date 05/12/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 35 million
Listed on March 12th, 2010


Polycom Inc. - PLCM - close: 49.50 change: +0.44

Stop Loss: 46.90
Target(s): 54.85,
Current Gain/Loss: - 1.3%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/24 update: PLCM spent the day bouncing around the $49-50 zone. There is no change from my prior comments. More conservative traders might want to raise their stops closer to the $48.00 level, which should be short-term support. Our upside target is $54.85. I would be tempted to aim higher but we want to exit ahead of the late April earnings report.

FYI: The Point & Figure chart for PLCM is bullish with a $75 target.

- Small Bullish Positions -

Current Position: Long PLCM stock @ $50.18

- or -

Long the May $52.50 calls (PLCM1121E52.5) Entry @ $2.00

03/23 Entry price on the May $52.50 call is an estimate.

Entry on March 23 at $50.18
Earnings Date 04/21/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 967 thousand
Listed on March 22nd, 2011


Patterson-UTI Energy Inc. - PTEN - close: 27.44 change: +0.07

Stop Loss: 25.95
Target(s): 31.50, 34.00
Current Gain/Loss: unopened
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see trigger

Comments:
03/24 update: PTEN is still churning sideways above the $27.00 level. There is no change from my prior comments. We are still waiting for PTEN to breakout past $28.00. Our trigger to open bullish positions is at $28.25 so we're still sitting on the sidelines.

Prior Comments:
The $30.00 mark might offer some resistance but I'm targeting a climb to $31.50 and the $34.00 levels.

Trigger @ 28.25

Suggested Position: buy PTEN stock @ 28.25

- or -

Buy the May $30 calls (PTEN1121E30) current ask $0.90

Entry on March x at $xx.xx
Earnings Date 04/28/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.8 million
Listed on March 17th, 2010


Southwestern Energy Co. - SWN - close: 43.06 change: +0.55

Stop Loss: 37.95
Target(s): 44.85
Current Gain/Loss: unopened
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see trigger

Comments:
03/24 update: SWN is now up ten days in a row. Shares will see a pull back eventually. I would not chase it here!

I am suggesting we launch bullish positions on a dip at $40.25 since broken resistance at $40.00 should be new support. More conservative traders might want to wait and hope for a dip closer to the $39.00 area. If we are triggered at $40.25 we'll use a stop loss at $37.95. Our firs target is $44.85.

FYI: The Point & Figure chart for SWN recently broke out past resistance and is now signaling a bullish target of $51.

Buy-the-Dip Trigger @ $40.25

Suggested Position: Buy SWN stock @ 40.25

- or -

Buy the June $42 calls (SWN1118F42) current ask $2.53

Entry on March x at $xx.xx
Earnings Date 04/28/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 6.9 million
Listed on March 19th, 2010


Tesoro Corp - TSO - close: 26.02 change: +0.53

Stop Loss: 23.95
Target(s): 29.90
Current Gain/Loss: - 0.5%
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/24 update: The late afternoon rally in TSO was just enough to hit our trigger at $26.15. The trade is open. I would still consider new positions now with the stock at $26.00. An alternative entry would be to wait for a rally past the March 14th high of $26.72.

Given the stock's recent volatility over the last month or so I would consider this a higher-risk trade. Keep your position size small. FYI: The most recent data listed short interest in TSO at more than 13% of the stock's 141 million-share float. A breakout past resistance could spark another short squeeze.

Current Position: Long TSO stock @ 26.15

- or -

Long the May $27.00 calls (TSO1121E27) Entry @ $1.60

chart:

Entry on March 24 at $26.15
Earnings Date 04/25/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 8.2 million
Listed on March 21st, 2010


Weyerhaeuser Co. - WY - close: 24.33 change: -0.17

Stop Loss: 23.40
Target(s): 27.25, 29.25
Current Gain/Loss: - 1.4%
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/24 update: WY has been underperforming the last couple of days. I'd wait for a new bounce from $24.00 or the 50-dma before considering new bullish positions. The simple 50-dma, which should be technical support, has risen to $23.70. I am raising our stop loss to $23.40.

Prior Comments:
Keep your positions small to limit your risk.

Suggested Position: long WY stock @ $24.68

- or -

Long the July $25 calls (WY1116G25) Entry @ $1.64

03/24 New stop @ 23.40

Entry on March 16 at $24.68
Earnings Date 04/29/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 6.4 million
Listed on March 15th, 2010


BEARISH Play Updates

Lennar Corp. - LEN - close: 19.87 change: +0.12

Stop Loss: 20.25
Target(s): 16.75
Current Gain/Loss: - 2.0%
Time Frame: 1 to 2 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/24 update: Once again I will repeat my earlier comments that there is no reason for LEN shares to be bouncing with new home sales in the U.S. plunging to all time record lows. However, price is king and right now LEN looks poised to breakout over resistance near $20.00 and its 50-dma. More conservative traders may want to exit early now. If we don't see some relative weakness out of LEN soon I will seriously consider an early exit. A breakout past $20.00 could spark a short squeeze!

FYI: I do want to point out that the most recent data listed short interest on LEN at 21% of the 159 million-share float. That is a high amount of short interest and raises the risk of a short squeeze although we are certainly not expecting a short squeeze with the market in decline.

- Small Bearish Positions -

Current Position: short LEN stock @ 19.47

- or -

Long the April $19 puts (LEN1116P19) Entry @ $0.80

Entry on March 17 at $19.47
Earnings Date 03/24/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.3 million
Listed on March 16th, 2010


Overseas Shipholding Group - OSG - close: 31.70 change: +0.30

Stop Loss: 33.55
Target(s): 27.75, 25.25
Current Gain/Loss: + 1.5%
Time Frame: 8 to 9 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/24 update: OSG is still trying to bounce and gained +0.9%. The stock is hovering under short-term resistance near $32.00. While the trend for OSG is down the bullishness in the broader market could make this bearish play a challenging trade for us. Readers might want to tighten their stops.

Our plan was to use small positions to limit our risk. The P&F chart is forecasting a $25 target.

- Small Bearish Positions -

Current Position: Short OSG stock @ $32.20

- or -

Long the April $30 PUTS (OSG1116P30) Entry @ $0.75

03/16 New stop loss @ 33.55

Entry on March 11 at $32.20
Earnings Date 05/04/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 705 thousand
Listed on March 10th, 2010