Editor's Note:
The S&P 500's oversold bounce has now cleared resistance at the 1300 level and its 50-dma. This is a bullish development but the bounce in stocks is starting to get a little long winded here. It might be time for a little dip soon before we see further gains. Fortunately, the 1300 level should now be new support again.

Looking at our candidates below we had PTEN hit our trigger to open bullish positions. I am suggesting an early exit on our LEN play.

-James

Current Portfolio:


BULLISH Play Updates

ACI Worldwide Inc. - ACIW - close: 32.41 change: +0.20

Stop Loss: 29.75
Target(s): --.--, 34.75
Current Gain/Loss: + 9.3%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/26 update: It was a rather boring week for ACIW. Outside of the rally on Monday morning shares spent the week in the $31.80-32.60 range. Granted the stock is still drifting higher. The question is will ACIW be able to breakout past the early March highs near $33.00?

I am not suggesting new bullish positions at this time but that might change if we see anew bounce from the $31 level or its rising 30-dma. Our final target is $34.75.

FYI: ACIW does have options but the spreads are very wide, which puts us at a significant disadvantage.

SMALL bullish positions

Current Position: Long ACIW stock @ $29.63

03/24 first exit was at $32.25 (+8.8%)
03/23 Sell half now! exit price at the open on 3/24
03/22 New stop loss @ 29.75, 1st Target adjusted to $32.85
03/19 New stop loss @ 29.35

chart:

Entry on February 25 at $29.63
Earnings Date 04/28/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 122 thousand
Listed on February 24th, 2010


Dick's Sporting Goods Inc. - DKS - close: 39.91 change: -0.07

Stop Loss: 36.75
Target(s): 42.25, 44.50
Current Gain/Loss: +1.3%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/26 update: DKS is also drifting higher. Earlier in the week it looked like DKS was going to roll over and retest the $38.50 area. Now the trend is improving, albeit slowly. I would still consider small positions now or you could wait for a dip near the 30-dma. I'm suggesting profit targets at $42.25 and $44.50.

FYI: The Point & Figure chart for DKS is bullish with a $65 target.

- Small Positions -

Current Position: Long DKS stock @ $39.39

- or -

Long the June $40 calls (DKS1118F40) Entry @ $2.35

chart:

Entry on March 21 at $39.39
Earnings Date 05/18/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.6 million
Listed on March 19th, 2010


eBay Inc. - EBAY - close: 31.70 change: -0.06

Stop Loss: 29.49
Target(s): 34.90, 39.00
Current Gain/Loss: unopened
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see trigger

Comments:
03/26 update: Shares of EBAY spiked higher on Friday but struggled at their 30-dma. I don't see any changes from my Thursday night comments. I am suggesting we wait for a dip and buy EBAY at $31.25. If triggered at $31.25 we'll use a stop loss at $29.49. Our first target is $34.90. We do not want to hold over EBAY's late April earnings report.

Trigger @ 31.25

Suggested Position: Buy EBAY stock @ $31.25

- or -

Buy the May $33.00 calls (EBAY1121E33) current ask $1.08

chart:

Entry on March x at $xx.xx
Earnings Date 04/27/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 10 million
Listed on March 24th, 2011


Ford Motor Co. - F - close: 15.01 change: -0.03

Stop Loss: 14.19
Target(s): 16.45, 17.45
Current Gain/Loss: - 0.2%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/26 update: I am a little surprised that Ford did not see more profit taking on Friday, especially after Thursday's big gains. The stock actually gapped open higher on Friday morning before drifting back to hover near the $15.00 level. I remain bullish but readers may want to wait for dips near $14.80 before initiating positions. Our targets are $16.45 and $17.45.

Current Position: Long F stock @ $15.05

- or -

Long the April $15 calls (F1116D15) Entry @ $0.33

chart:

Weekly chart:

Entry on March 24 at $15.05
Earnings Date 04/21/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 82 million
Listed on March 15th, 2010


Gildan Activewear - GIL - close: 31.69 change: -0.09

Stop Loss: 29.70
Target(s): 34.85, 38.00
Current Gain/Loss: + 4.4%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/26 update: After some brief excitement on Monday and Tuesday shares of GIL have fallen back into boring mode. I would expect another dip near the simple 40-dma. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Current Position: long GIL stock @ 30.35

- or -

Long the April $30 call (GIL1116D30) Entry @ $1.60

03/19 New stop loss @ 29.70
03/08 Triggered $ 30.35
03/01 Adjusted buy-the-dip trigger to $30.35
03/01 Adjusted stop loss to $28.99

chart:

Entry on March 8 at $30.35
Earnings Date 05/12/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 634 thousand
Listed on February 28th, 2010


Jos. A Bank Clothiers Inc. - JOSB - close: 47.26 change: +0.86

Stop Loss: 44.75
Target(s): 49.85, 52.25
Current Gain/Loss: + 2.7%
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/26 update: Hmm... it looks like we should have considered just playing the trading range in JOSB - buying dips near $45 and selling spikes near $48. Once again shares of JOSB rallied to and stalled at resistance near $48.00. A breakout past $48 would be very encouraging. Keep in mind that we don't have a lot of time. JOSB is due to report earnings at the very end of March or early April and we don't want to hold over the announcement. I am not suggesting new positions at these levels.

FYI: The most recent data listed short interest at almost 25% of JOSB's 27.3 million-share float. There is definitely room for some short covering here. Plus, the Point & Figure chart for JOSB is bullish with a $62 target.

- Small Bullish Positions -

Current Position: Long JOSB stock @ $45.99

- or -

Long the April $50 calls (JOSB1116D50) Entry @ $0.95

chart:

Entry on March 7 at $45.99
Earnings Date 03/30/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 355 thousand
Listed on March 5th, 2010


KLA-Tencor - KLAC - close: 46.86 change: -0.33

Stop Loss: 44.95
Target(s): 49.90
Current Gain/Loss: + 0.4%
Time Frame: 3 to 4 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/26 update: The rally in the semiconductor sector stalled on Friday. Shares of KLAC briefly traded above their 30-dma but failed to make it past potential resistance at $48.00. KLAC might provide us a new entry point on a dip near $46.00 soon. Wait for the dip. Our target is $49.90.

Current Position: Long KLAC stock @ $46.65

- or -

Long the April $45 calls (KLAC1116D45) Entry @ $2.85

chart:

Entry on March 24 at $46.65
Earnings Date 04/28/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.5 million
Listed on March 23rd, 2011


NVIDIA Corp. - NVDA - close: 18.63 change: -0.60

Stop Loss: 16.85
Target(s): 19.95, 21.75
Current Gain/Loss: + 2.4%
Time Frame: 4 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/26 update: NVDA gave back a good chunk of Thursday's gains with a -3.1% decline on Friday. That's not completely unexpected after Thursday's nearly +8% pop. I suggested readers look for a dip into the $18.50-18.25 zone as a new entry point and NVDA is almost there.

Our first target to take profits is at $19.95. Our second target is $21.75.

Prior Comments:
This is a very speculative, higher-risk trade. Remember to keep your positions small to limit your risk.

- small bullish positions -

Current Position: long NVDA stock @ $18.19

- or -

Long the April $20 calls (NVDA1116D20) Entry @ $0.72

chart:

Entry on March 14 at $18.19
Earnings Date 05/12/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 35 million
Listed on March 12th, 2010


Polycom Inc. - PLCM - close: 49.07 change: -0.43

Stop Loss: 46.90
Target(s): 54.85,
Current Gain/Loss: - 2.2%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/26 update: PLCM is still consolidating sideways in the $49-50 zone. Readers can wait to buy dips near $48.00 or wait for a new breakout past $50.50. Our upside target is $54.85. I would be tempted to aim higher but we want to exit ahead of the late April earnings report.

FYI: The Point & Figure chart for PLCM is bullish with a $75 target.

- Small Bullish Positions -

Current Position: Long PLCM stock @ $50.18

- or -

Long the May $52.50 calls (PLCM1121E52.5) Entry @ $2.00

03/23 Entry price on the May $52.50 call is an estimate.

chart:

Entry on March 23 at $50.18
Earnings Date 04/21/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 967 thousand
Listed on March 22nd, 2011


Patterson-UTI Energy Inc. - PTEN - close: 28.34 change: +0.90

Stop Loss: 25.95
Target(s): 31.50, 34.00
Current Gain/Loss: + 0.3%
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/26 update: Our play on PTEN is finally active. The stock displayed some relative strength on Friday with a +3.2% gain and a breakout past resistance near $28.00. Our trigger to open bullish positions was hit at $28.25. I would still consider new positions now at current levels.

Prior Comments:
The $30.00 mark might offer some resistance but I'm targeting a climb to $31.50 and the $34.00 levels.

Current Position: Long PTEN stock @ 28.25

- or -

Long the May $30 calls (PTEN1121E30) Entry @ $0.95

chart:

Entry on March 25 at $28.25
Earnings Date 04/28/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.8 million
Listed on March 17th, 2010


Southwestern Energy Co. - SWN - close: 43.49 change: +0.43

Stop Loss: 38.49
Target(s): 44.85
Current Gain/Loss: unopened
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see trigger

Comments:
03/26 update: The rally in SWN is starting to look a little ridiculous. Shares are up eleven days in a row. I am raising our buy-the-dip entry point from $40.25 to $40.55 and we will raise our stop loss to $38.49.

FYI: The Point & Figure chart for SWN recently broke out past resistance and is now signaling a bullish target of $51.

Buy-the-Dip Trigger @ $40.55

Suggested Position: Buy SWN stock @ 40.55

- or -

Buy the June $42 calls (SWN1118F42)

chart:

Entry on March x at $xx.xx
Earnings Date 04/28/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 6.9 million
Listed on March 19th, 2010


Tesoro Corp - TSO - close: 26.57 change: +0.55

Stop Loss: 23.95
Target(s): 29.90
Current Gain/Loss: + 1.6%
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/26 update: TSO displayed relative strength on Friday with a +2.1% gain, which was better than both the OIX and OSX's performance. The close over resistance at $26.00 is also a bullish development. Odds are good TSO will see another dip near the $26.00 area and that's where I would launch new positions.

Prior Comments:
Given the stock's recent volatility over the last month or so I would consider this a higher-risk trade. Keep your position size small. FYI: The most recent data listed short interest in TSO at more than 13% of the stock's 141 million-share float. A breakout past resistance could spark another short squeeze.

Current Position: Long TSO stock @ 26.15

- or -

Long the May $27.00 calls (TSO1121E27) Entry @ $1.60

chart:

Entry on March 24 at $26.15
Earnings Date 04/25/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 8.2 million
Listed on March 21st, 2010


Weyerhaeuser Co. - WY - close: 24.22 change: -0.11

Stop Loss: 23.40
Target(s): 27.25, 29.25
Current Gain/Loss: - 1.8%
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/26 update: We have been expecting WY to pull back toward $24.00 or its 50-dma so the recent declines are not a surprise but they are a show of relative weakness for WY. I am suggesting readers wait for a bounce from $24.00 or the 50-dma before considering new bullish positions.

Prior Comments:
Keep your positions small to limit your risk.

Suggested Position: long WY stock @ $24.68

- or -

Long the July $25 calls (WY1116G25) Entry @ $1.64

03/24 New stop @ 23.40

chart:

Entry on March 16 at $24.68
Earnings Date 04/29/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 6.4 million
Listed on March 15th, 2010


BEARISH Play Updates

Overseas Shipholding Group - OSG - close: 32.04 change: +0.34

Stop Loss: 33.55
Target(s): 27.75, 25.25
Current Gain/Loss: + 0.5%
Time Frame: 8 to 9 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/26 update: OSG spent the entire week bouncing from the $30.00 level. This oversold bounce stalled at resistance near the $32.00 area. Readers may want to wait for a new failed rally pattern to emerge before launching new bearish positions. I would focus on the 50-dma near $33.00 as a good spot to watch for a reversal.

Our plan was to use small positions to limit our risk. The P&F chart is forecasting a $25 target.

- Small Bearish Positions -

Current Position: Short OSG stock @ $32.20

- or -

Long the April $30 PUTS (OSG1116P30) Entry @ $0.75

03/16 New stop loss @ 33.55

chart:

Entry on March 11 at $32.20
Earnings Date 05/04/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 705 thousand
Listed on March 10th, 2010


CLOSED BEARISH PLAYS

Lennar Corp. - LEN - close: 20.03 change: +0.16

Stop Loss: 20.25
Target(s): 16.75
Current Gain/Loss: - 2.8%
Time Frame: 1 to 2 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/26 update: I am very surprised that given the high amount of short interest in LEN that the stock did not see stronger gains when it broke through the $20.00 mark. Shares rallied to $20.21 before fading back toward the $20 level. While our stop loss at $20.25 has not been hit I am suggesting an early exit immediately.

- Small Bearish Positions -

Closed Position: short LEN stock @ 19.47, Exit @ 20.03 (-2.8%)

- or -

April $19 puts (LEN1116P19) Entry @ $0.80, Exit @ 0.42 (-47.5%)

03/26 Early Exit: LEN @ $20.03, Option @ -47.5%

chart:

Entry on March 17 at $19.47
Earnings Date 03/24/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.3 million
Listed on March 16th, 2010