Editor's Note:
The S&P 500 is up about +5.4% for the first quarter of 2011. That's the best Q1 performance in over 10 years. The trend is up but stocks look a little bit overbought given the big bounce off its mid March lows.

The jobs report tomorrow morning could be pivotal. Traders could use it as a catalyst to take profits if the jobs numbers is disappointing, or as a catalyst to push higher if the jobs data is strong. Of course there is the chance that stocks pop higher in the morning on strong data and then reverse into profit taking ahead of the weekend. Readers may want to wait for a dip before considering new bullish positions.

-James

Current Portfolio:


BULLISH Play Updates

ACI Worldwide Inc. - ACIW - close: 32.80 change: -0.10

Stop Loss: 29.75
Target(s): --.--, 34.75
Current Gain/Loss: +10.7%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/31 update: ACIW is still hovering under resistance at the $33.00 level. Shares are arguably short-term overbought here. Readers may want to seriously consider an early exit right here to lock in gains.

Currently we're aiming for the $34.75 level but plan to exit ahead of the late April earnings report. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

FYI: ACIW does have options but the spreads are very wide, which puts us at a significant disadvantage.

SMALL bullish positions

Current Position: Long ACIW stock @ $29.63

03/24 first exit was at $32.25 (+8.8%)
03/23 Sell half now! exit price at the open on 3/24
03/22 New stop loss @ 29.75, 1st Target adjusted to $32.85
03/19 New stop loss @ 29.35

Entry on February 25 at $29.63
Earnings Date 04/28/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 122 thousand
Listed on February 24th, 2010


AutoNation, Inc. - AN - close: 35.37 change: -0.34

Stop Loss: 33.49
Target(s): 38.00, 39.75
Current Gain/Loss: + 0.3%
Time Frame: 3 to 5 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/31 update: AN was kind enough to provide us another bullish entry point with a dip near $35.00 today. I would still buy the stock now at current levels.

Our upside targets are $38.00 and $39.75 although that might be a little optimistic. We do not want to hold over the late April earnings report.

Current Position: Long AN stock @ $35.25

- or -

Long the May $36 calls (AN1121E36) Entry @ $1.15

Entry on March 30 at $35.25
Earnings Date 04/26/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 972 thousand
Listed on March 29th, 2011


Dick's Sporting Goods Inc. - DKS - close: 39.98 change: -0.35

Stop Loss: 36.75
Target(s): 42.25, 44.50
Current Gain/Loss: +1.5%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/31 update: There is nothing new to report on for DKS. Shares continue to churn sideways near $40.00. Readers may want to wait for a new two-week high over $40.46 before considering new positions. I'm suggesting profit targets at $42.25 and $44.50.

FYI: The Point & Figure chart for DKS is bullish with a $65 target.

- Small Positions -

Current Position: Long DKS stock @ $39.39

- or -

Long the June $40 calls (DKS1118F40) Entry @ $2.35

Entry on March 21 at $39.39
Earnings Date 05/18/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.6 million
Listed on March 19th, 2010


eBay Inc. - EBAY - close: 31.04 change: -0.59

Stop Loss: 29.49
Target(s): 34.90, 39.00
Current Gain/Loss: - 0.6%
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/31 update: Hmm... EBAY is seeing its bounce fail at technical resistance near its 30 and 50-dma. The stock erased yesterday's rebound with a -1.8% drop today. Wait for another dip into the $30.75-30.25 zone as our next entry point. We have a stop loss at $29.49. Our first target is $34.90. We do not want to hold over EBAY's late April earnings report.

Current Position: Long EBAY stock @ $31.25

- or -

Long the May $33.00 calls (EBAY1121E33) Entry @ $0.75

Entry on March 28 at $31.25
Earnings Date 04/27/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 10 million
Listed on March 24th, 2011


Ford Motor Co. - F - close: 14.91 change: +0.05

Stop Loss: 14.19
Target(s): 16.45, 17.45
Current Gain/Loss: - 0.9%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/31 update: Unfortunately shares of Ford have been stuck in neutral all week long. Readers may want to wait for a new rally past $15.00 before considering new bullish positions. Our targets are $16.45 and $17.45.

Current Position: Long F stock @ $15.05

- or -

Long the April $15 calls (F1116D15) Entry @ $0.33

Entry on March 24 at $15.05
Earnings Date 04/21/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 82 million
Listed on March 15th, 2010


Gildan Activewear - GIL - close: 32.77 change: +0.04

Stop Loss: 29.70
Target(s): 34.85, 38.00
Current Gain/Loss: + 7.9%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/31 update: GIL posted a very minor gain and shares spent the day churning sideways. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Current Position: long GIL stock @ 30.35

- or -

Long the April $30 call (GIL1116D30) Entry @ $1.60

03/19 New stop loss @ 29.70
03/08 Triggered $ 30.35
03/01 Adjusted buy-the-dip trigger to $30.35
03/01 Adjusted stop loss to $28.99

Entry on March 8 at $30.35
Earnings Date 05/12/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 634 thousand
Listed on February 28th, 2010


Harley Davidson - HOG - close: 42.49 change: +0.19

Stop Loss: 39.75
Target(s): 47.00, 49.75
Current Gain/Loss: + 0.8%
Time Frame: 3 to 5 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/31 update: HOG opened lower at $42.13 but quickly recovered. Shares eventually outperformed the S&P 500 with a +0.44% gain. I would still consider new positions now or you could look for dips into the $42.00-41.50 zone. Keep an eye on potential resistance near $43.00. Readers will want to keep their position size small to limit our risk. We only have a few weeks since we will plan to exit ahead of the late April earnings report.

Current Position: long HOG stock @ $42.13

- or -

Long the May $45 calls (HOG1121E45) entry @ $0.95

Entry on March 31 at $42.13
Earnings Date 04/19/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.0 million
Listed on March 30th, 2011


KLA-Tencor - KLAC - close: 47.32 change: -0.30

Stop Loss: 44.95
Target(s): 49.90
Current Gain/Loss: + 1.4%
Time Frame: 3 to 4 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/31 update: Semiconductor stocks were underperformers today. The SOX slipped -0.9%. KLAC gave up -0.6%. The stock should have decent support in the $46.70-46.00 zone. We can buy dips there or wait for a breakout past $48.00. I am thinking about raising our stop loss closer to $46.00. Our target is $49.90.

Current Position: Long KLAC stock @ $46.65

- or -

Long the April $45 calls (KLAC1116D45) Entry @ $2.85

Entry on March 24 at $46.65
Earnings Date 04/28/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.5 million
Listed on March 23rd, 2011


NVIDIA Corp. - NVDA - close: 18.46 change: +0.01

Stop Loss: 16.85
Target(s): 19.95, 21.75
Current Gain/Loss: + 1.4%
Time Frame: 4 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/31 update: There was virtually no change in shares of NVDA today. The stock continues to churn in the $18.20-18.60 area. Aggressive traders could buy this dip but if you do I would consider a tighter stop close to the $18 level. Our first target to take profits is at $19.95. Our second target is $21.75.

Prior Comments:
This is a very speculative, higher-risk trade. Remember to keep your positions small to limit your risk.

- small bullish positions -

Current Position: long NVDA stock @ $18.19

- or -

Long the April $20 calls (NVDA1116D20) Entry @ $0.72

Entry on March 14 at $18.19
Earnings Date 05/12/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 35 million
Listed on March 12th, 2010


Polycom Inc. - PLCM - close: 51.85 change: +0.26

Stop Loss: 46.90
Target(s): 54.85,
Current Gain/Loss: + 3.3%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/31 update: PLCM is still drifting higher and tagged another high today at $52.16. There is no change from my prior comments. I would still consider new positions here or you could wait for a dip near the $50.50-50.00 zone. Our upside target is $54.85.

- Small Bullish Positions -

Current Position: Long PLCM stock @ $50.18

- or -

Long the May $52.50 calls (PLCM1121E52.5) Entry @ $2.00

03/23 Entry price on the May $52.50 call is an estimate.

Entry on March 23 at $50.18
Earnings Date 04/21/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 967 thousand
Listed on March 22nd, 2011


Patterson-UTI Energy Inc. - PTEN - close: 29.39 change: +0.48

Stop Loss: 25.95
Target(s): 31.50, 34.00
Current Gain/Loss: + 4.0%
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/31 update: PTEN displayed some relative strength with a +1.6% gain and another new relative high. The stock is approaching what might be round-number resistance at the $30.00 level. Don't be surprised to see some profit taking soon. Dips in the $28.50-28.00 zone could be used as a new entry point.

Prior Comments:
The $30.00 mark might offer some resistance but I'm targeting a climb to $31.50 and the $34.00 levels.

Current Position: Long PTEN stock @ 28.25

- or -

Long the May $30 calls (PTEN1121E30) Entry @ $0.95

Entry on March 25 at $28.25
Earnings Date 04/28/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.8 million
Listed on March 17th, 2010


Ryder Systems Inc. - R - close: 50.60 change: +0.42

Stop Loss: 47.40
Target(s): 53.00
Current Gain/Loss: + 0.7%
Time Frame: 3 to 5 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/31 update: R is marching higher and added +0.8% on strong, rising volume. I would still consider new positions now or on a dip near the $49 area. Our target is the $53.00 level. We do not want to hold over the late April earnings report.

Current Position: Long R stock @ $50.25

- or -

Long the May $50 call (R1121E50) Entry @ $2.55

Entry on March 30 at $50.25
Earnings Date 04/21/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 388 thousand
Listed on March 26th, 2011


Southwestern Energy Co. - SWN - close: 42.97 change: -0.27

Stop Loss: 38.49
Target(s): 44.85
Current Gain/Loss: unopened
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see trigger

Comments:
03/31 update: It looks like upward momentum might be temporarily stalling for SWN. I remain bullish on the stock but we don't want to buy it here. Furthermore, if we don't see SWN start to correct lower tomorrow then I'll probably remove it from the newsletter and just place it on my personal watch list where we can wait for a dip back toward support near the $40 area. Currently our trigger to buy the dip is at $40.55.

FYI: The Point & Figure chart for SWN recently broke out past resistance and is now signaling a bullish target of $51.

Buy-the-Dip Trigger @ $40.55

Suggested Position: Buy SWN stock @ 40.55

- or -

Buy the June $42 calls (SWN1118F42)

Entry on March x at $xx.xx
Earnings Date 04/28/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 6.9 million
Listed on March 19th, 2010


Tesoro Corp - TSO - close: 26.83 change: -0.93

Stop Loss: 23.95
Target(s): 29.90
Current Gain/Loss: + 2.6%
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/31 update: Ouch! Profit taking in TSO shaved off -3.3%. Look for this stock to test the 10-dma near $26.25 or the $26.00 level. A dip to either spot can be used as a new bullish entry point. Our target to exit is $29.90. Readers may want to adjust their stop loss higher.

Prior Comments:
Given the stock's recent volatility over the last month or so I would consider this a higher-risk trade. Keep your position size small. FYI: The most recent data listed short interest in TSO at more than 13% of the stock's 141 million-share float. A breakout past resistance could spark another short squeeze.

Current Position: Long TSO stock @ 26.15

- or -

Long the May $27.00 calls (TSO1121E27) Entry @ $1.60

Entry on March 24 at $26.15
Earnings Date 04/25/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 8.2 million
Listed on March 21st, 2010


Williams Companies, Inc. - WMB - close: 31.18 change: -0.27

Stop Loss: 29.45
Target(s): 34.50
Current Gain/Loss: - 0.2%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/31 update: WMB spiked to a new relative high at $31.77 this morning but the strength faded. WMB looks poised to retest support near $31.00 or a dip toward its 20-dma closer to $30.50. We can still launch positions now or wait for a dip in this area as a new entry point.

Current Position: long WMB stock @ $31.26

- or -

Long the May $30 calls (WMB1121E30) Entry @ $2.10

Entry on March 28 at $31.26
Earnings Date 05/05/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 7.0 million
Listed on March 26th, 2011


Weyerhaeuser Co. - WY - close: 24.60 change: -0.02

Stop Loss: 23.40
Target(s): 27.25, 29.25
Current Gain/Loss: - 0.3%
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/31 update: Thursday was a quiet session for WY. Traders bought the morning dip near $24.50 but the stock closed virtually unchanged for the session. I'm in a wait and see mode right now. Let's see how the market reacts to the jobs report before considering new positions in WY.

Prior Comments:
Keep your positions small to limit your risk.

Suggested Position: long WY stock @ $24.68

- or -

Long the July $25 calls (WY1116G25) Entry @ $1.64

03/24 New stop @ 23.40

Entry on March 16 at $24.68
Earnings Date 04/29/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 6.4 million
Listed on March 15th, 2010


BEARISH Play Updates

Overseas Shipholding Group - OSG - close: 32.14 change: -0.64

Stop Loss: 33.55
Target(s): 27.75, 25.25
Current Gain/Loss: + 0.1%
Time Frame: 8 to 9 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/31 update: The bounce in OSG has reversed at technical resistance near its 50-dma. This looks like a new bearish entry point. Conservative traders could adjust their stop closer to the $33.00 level.

Our plan was to use small positions to limit our risk. The P&F chart is forecasting a $25 target.

- Small Bearish Positions -

Current Position: Short OSG stock @ $32.20

- or -

Long the April $30 PUTS (OSG1116P30) Entry @ $0.75

03/16 New stop loss @ 33.55

Entry on March 11 at $32.20
Earnings Date 05/04/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 705 thousand
Listed on March 10th, 2010