Editor's Note:
The market pared its gains on Friday but the chip stocks have been underperforming since Wednesday's failed rally. Now our trades in KLAC and NVDA might be in jeopardy.

-James

Current Portfolio:


BULLISH Play Updates

ACI Worldwide Inc. - ACIW - close: 32.80 change: -0.10

Stop Loss: 30.90
Target(s): --.--, 34.75
Current Gain/Loss: +11.0%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
04/02 update: It has been three days in a row now that ACIW has been stuck in a tight range consolidating under resistance at the $33.00 level. With the stock marketing making gains I'm not sure what ACIW is waiting for to finally breakout higher. Once again I am suggesting that more conservative traders will want to consider locking in a profit now with an early exit. Please note our new stop loss at $30.90.

Officially we're aiming for the $34.75 level but plan to exit ahead of the late April earnings report. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

FYI: ACIW does have options but the spreads are very wide, which puts us at a significant disadvantage.

SMALL bullish positions

Current Position: Long ACIW stock @ $29.63

04/02 New stop loss @ 30.90
03/24 first exit was at $32.25 (+8.8%)
03/23 Sell half now! exit price at the open on 3/24
03/22 New stop loss @ 29.75, 1st Target adjusted to $32.85
03/19 New stop loss @ 29.35

chart:

Entry on February 25 at $29.63
Earnings Date 04/28/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 122 thousand
Listed on February 24th, 2010


AutoNation, Inc. - AN - close: 35.62 change: +0.25

Stop Loss: 33.49
Target(s): 38.00, 39.75
Current Gain/Loss: + 1.0%
Time Frame: 3 to 5 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
04/02 update: AN rallied this morning but for the second time this week the rally stalled near resistance at $36.00. Odds are good AN will provide us another entry point on a dip near $35.00 or $34.00 soon. Wait for the dip.

Our upside targets are $38.00 and $39.75 although that might be a little optimistic. We do not want to hold over the late April earnings report.

Current Position: Long AN stock @ $35.25

- or -

Long the May $36 calls (AN1121E36) Entry @ $1.15

chart:

Entry on March 30 at $35.25
Earnings Date 04/26/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 972 thousand
Listed on March 29th, 2011


Dick's Sporting Goods Inc. - DKS - close: 40.47 change: +0.49

Stop Loss: 37.45
Target(s): 42.25, 44.50
Current Gain/Loss: +2.7%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
04/02 update: DKS is slowly inching higher. The threat of higher oil prices is not impeding the retail bulls. DKS continues to build on a bullish trend of higher lows. I would consider new positions here but the early March highs remain potential resistance. Please note our new stop loss at $37.45. Our targets are $42.25 and $44.50.

FYI: The Point & Figure chart for DKS is bullish with a $65 target.

- Small Positions -

Current Position: Long DKS stock @ $39.39

- or -

Long the June $40 calls (DKS1118F40) Entry @ $2.35

04/02 New stop loss @ 37.45

chart:

Entry on March 21 at $39.39
Earnings Date 05/18/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.6 million
Listed on March 19th, 2010


eBay Inc. - EBAY - close: 31.36 change: +0.32

Stop Loss: 29.49
Target(s): 34.90, 39.00
Current Gain/Loss: + 0.3%
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
04/02 update: Shares of EBAY are setting up for a breakout one way or the other soon. The action over the last two weeks is producing a neutral pattern of lower highs and higher lows. This pennant shape is narrowing and EBAY should breakout soon. The prevailing trend was down given the sell-off from the February highs. Yet the bigger picture for EBAY is up with a long-term trend of higher lows. So which way will the stock breakout?

I'm betting on a breakout higher but readers may want to wait. Instead of waiting for a dip we can wait for a break higher. I'd wait for a move past $32.00 and its 50-dma. Or you could wait for a rise past the March 25th high near $32.40 as your new entry point.

Our first target is $34.90. We do not want to hold over EBAY's late April earnings report.

Current Position: Long EBAY stock @ $31.25

- or -

Long the May $33.00 calls (EBAY1121E33) Entry @ $0.75

chart:

Entry on March 28 at $31.25
Earnings Date 04/27/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 10 million
Listed on March 24th, 2011


Ford Motor Co. - F - close: 15.16 change: +0.25

Stop Loss: 14.19
Target(s): 16.45, 17.45
Current Gain/Loss: + 0.7%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
04/02 update: Ford was showing some strength on Friday but the rally stalled at technical resistance near the simple 50-dma. Driving the move higher was very good news that Ford's March sales grew +19% and the company even managed to out sell its main rival GM last month.

Bigger picture, it does look like Ford has put in a bottom back in March. I would consider new positions now or you can choose to wait and buy dips in the $15.00-14.80 region. Our targets are $16.45 and $17.45.

Current Position: Long F stock @ $15.05

- or -

Long the April $15 calls (F1116D15) Entry @ $0.33

chart:

Entry on March 24 at $15.05
Earnings Date 04/21/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 82 million
Listed on March 15th, 2010


Gildan Activewear - GIL - close: 33.29 change: +0.52

Stop Loss: 29.70
Target(s): 34.85, 38.00
Current Gain/Loss: + 9.6%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
04/02 update: GIL ended a strong week with a +1.5% rally to new two-year highs. After months and months of consolidating sideways this might finally be the beginning of a significant move higher. However, short-term I'd prefer to wait for dips near the $32.50-32.00 zone as a bullish entry point.

Current Position: long GIL stock @ 30.35

- or -

Long the April $30 call (GIL1116D30) Entry @ $1.60

03/19 New stop loss @ 29.70
03/08 Triggered $ 30.35
03/01 Adjusted buy-the-dip trigger to $30.35
03/01 Adjusted stop loss to $28.99

chart:

Entry on March 8 at $30.35
Earnings Date 05/12/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 634 thousand
Listed on February 28th, 2010


Harley Davidson - HOG - close: 42.15 change: -0.34

Stop Loss: 39.75
Target(s): 47.00, 49.75
Current Gain/Loss: + 0.0%
Time Frame: 3 to 5 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
04/02 update: The early morning rally in shares of HOG failed at the February resistance near $43.00. This is not unexpected. I would still consider new positions now near $42.00 or readers can look for a dip closer to $41.00 and launch positions there. Readers will want to keep their position size small to limit our risk. We only have a few weeks since we will plan to exit ahead of the late April earnings report.

Current Position: long HOG stock @ $42.13

- or -

Long the May $45 calls (HOG1121E45) entry @ $0.95

chart:

Entry on March 31 at $42.13
Earnings Date 04/19/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.0 million
Listed on March 30th, 2011


KLA-Tencor - KLAC - close: 46.80 change: -0.52

Stop Loss: 44.95
Target(s): 49.90
Current Gain/Loss: + 0.3%
Time Frame: 3 to 4 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
04/02 update: I am a little bit concerned about the tone of trading in the semiconductor space. The SOX index produced a failed rally/bearish reversal pattern at the 50-dma midweek. The SOX also underperformed on Friday. Shares of KLAC produced a failed rally near $48 midweek and dropped toward support on Friday. While KLAC should have some support near $46.00 if the SOX starts to accelerate lower then KLAC may end dropping toward the $45 or $44 levels instead. I am not suggesting new positions at this time. More conservative traders may want to up their stops closer to $46.

Current Position: Long KLAC stock @ $46.65

- or -

Long the April $45 calls (KLAC1116D45) Entry @ $2.85

chart:

Entry on March 24 at $46.65
Earnings Date 04/28/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.5 million
Listed on March 23rd, 2011


NVIDIA Corp. - NVDA - close: 18.20 change: -0.26

Stop Loss: 16.85
Target(s): 19.95, 21.75
Current Gain/Loss: + 0.0%
Time Frame: 4 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
04/02 update: NVDA is another chip stock that was underperforming the market the last few days. Shares slipped -1.4% on Friday with a dip toward support near $18.00. Personally, I would be tempted to buy NVDA here but you could wait for a dip into the $17.50-17.00 zone since that is where NVDA seems to be headed. Our first target to take profits is at $19.95. Our second target is $21.75.

Prior Comments:
This is a very speculative, higher-risk trade. Remember to keep your positions small to limit your risk.

- small bullish positions -

Current Position: long NVDA stock @ $18.19

- or -

Long the April $20 calls (NVDA1116D20) Entry @ $0.72

chart:

Entry on March 14 at $18.19
Earnings Date 05/12/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 35 million
Listed on March 12th, 2010


Polycom Inc. - PLCM - close: 49.61 change: -2.24

Stop Loss: 47.40
Target(s): 54.85,
Current Gain/Loss: - 1.1%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
04/02 update: Ouch! What happened to PLCM? The stock underperformed on Friday with a -4.3% decline. There was no news to explain the sell-off. The stock has yet to break the bullish trend of higher lows so the trend is still up. I would buy dips in the $49.00-48.50 zone or wait for a new bounce over $50.50 as our next entry point. The simple 50-dma has risen to $47.57. I am raising our stop loss to $47.40. Our upside target is $54.85.

- Small Bullish Positions -

Current Position: Long PLCM stock @ $50.18

- or -

Long the May $52.50 calls (PLCM1121E52.5) Entry @ $2.00

04/02 New stop loss @ 47.40
03/23 Entry price on the May $52.50 call is an estimate.

chart:

Entry on March 23 at $50.18
Earnings Date 04/21/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 967 thousand
Listed on March 22nd, 2011


Patterson-UTI Energy Inc. - PTEN - close: 28.95 change: -0.44

Stop Loss: 25.95
Target(s): 31.50, 34.00
Current Gain/Loss: + 2.4%
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
04/02 update: I warned readers that the $30.00 level might be resistance for PTEN. The stock rallied to a new 52-week high at $29.98 and reversed. We should expect a dip back toward short-term support near $28.00. Use a dip near $28.50-28.00 as a new entry point. More conservative traders might want to inch up their stop loss.

Prior Comments:
The $30.00 mark might offer some resistance but I'm targeting a climb to $31.50 and the $34.00 levels.

Current Position: Long PTEN stock @ 28.25

- or -

Long the May $30 calls (PTEN1121E30) Entry @ $0.95

chart:

Entry on March 25 at $28.25
Earnings Date 04/28/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.8 million
Listed on March 17th, 2010


Ryder Systems Inc. - R - close: 50.66 change: +0.06

Stop Loss: 47.40
Target(s): 53.00
Current Gain/Loss: + 0.8%
Time Frame: 3 to 5 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
04/02 update: Ryder rallied to a new seven week high only to give back most of its intraday gains on Friday. The stock looks poised for a little pull back. I would wait for dips near $50.00 or the 10-dma as our next entry point for bullish positions. Our target is the $53.00 level. We do not want to hold over the late April earnings report.

Current Position: Long R stock @ $50.25

- or -

Long the May $50 call (R1121E50) Entry @ $2.55

chart:

Entry on March 30 at $50.25
Earnings Date 04/21/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 388 thousand
Listed on March 26th, 2011


Tesoro Corp - TSO - close: 27.04 change: +0.21

Stop Loss: 23.95
Target(s): 29.90
Current Gain/Loss: + 3.4%
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
04/02 update: The action on Thursday looked like a bearish reversal for TSO. Yet there wasn't any follow through lower on Friday. Still, the stock is not out of jeopardy. I suspect TSO will retest the $26.00 level. Readers can wait for a dip near $26 or wait for a bounce from this area. Our target to exit is $29.90. Readers may want to adjust their stop loss higher.

Prior Comments:
Given the stock's recent volatility over the last month or so I would consider this a higher-risk trade. Keep your position size small. FYI: The most recent data listed short interest in TSO at more than 13% of the stock's 141 million-share float. A breakout past resistance could spark another short squeeze.

Current Position: Long TSO stock @ 26.15

- or -

Long the May $27.00 calls (TSO1121E27) Entry @ $1.60

chart:

Entry on March 24 at $26.15
Earnings Date 04/25/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 8.2 million
Listed on March 21st, 2010


Williams Companies, Inc. - WMB - close: 31.28 change: +0.10

Stop Loss: 29.45
Target(s): 34.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 0.6%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
04/02 update: WMB hit a new two-year high Friday morning but gave back most of its gains. I have been cautioning readers that WMB is likely to retest the $31.00-30.00 zone. Wait for a dip into this area as our next entry point.

Current Position: long WMB stock @ $31.26

- or -

Long the May $30 calls (WMB1121E30) Entry @ $2.10

chart:

Entry on March 28 at $31.26
Earnings Date 05/05/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 7.0 million
Listed on March 26th, 2011


Weyerhaeuser Co. - WY - close: 25.14 change: +0.54

Stop Loss: 23.40
Target(s): 27.25, 29.25
Current Gain/Loss: + 1.8%
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
04/02 update: It is encouraging to see WY participating in the market's rally again. The stock has reaffirmed the bullish trend of higher lows. Now it just needs to breakout past resistance in the $25.25-25.30 zone. Readers may want to wait for a move past $25.30 before initiating new positions.

Prior Comments:
Keep your positions small to limit your risk.

Suggested Position: long WY stock @ $24.68

- or -

Long the July $25 calls (WY1116G25) Entry @ $1.64

03/24 New stop @ 23.40

chart:

Entry on March 16 at $24.68
Earnings Date 04/29/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 6.4 million
Listed on March 15th, 2010


BEARISH Play Updates

Overseas Shipholding Group - OSG - close: 31.77 change: -0.37

Stop Loss: 33.55
Target(s): 27.75, 25.25
Current Gain/Loss: + 1.3%
Time Frame: 8 to 9 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
04/02 update: OSG underperformed the market on Friday following Thursday's failed rally at resistance. This looks like a new entry point for bearish positions. More conservative traders may want to adjust their stop loss closer to the $33.00 level.

Our plan was to use small positions to limit our risk. The P&F chart is forecasting a $25 target.

- Small Bearish Positions -

Current Position: Short OSG stock @ $32.20

- or -

Long the April $30 PUTS (OSG1116P30) Entry @ $0.75

03/16 New stop loss @ 33.55

chart:

Entry on March 11 at $32.20
Earnings Date 05/04/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 705 thousand
Listed on March 10th, 2010


CLOSED BULLISH PLAYS

Southwestern Energy Co. - SWN - close: 42.87 change: -0.10

Stop Loss: 38.49
Target(s): 44.85
Current Gain/Loss: unopened
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions:

Comments:
04/02 update: I am temporarily giving up on SWN as a bullish candidate. Big picture I remain bullish on the stock but short-term SWN remains overbought. Yet it won't correct lower. I am dropping it as a candidate to make room for new trades. Readers can keep it on their watch list. I would wait for a dip or bounce near what should be support at $40.00.

Our trade never opened.

chart:

Entry on March x at $xx.xx
Earnings Date 04/28/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 6.9 million
Listed on March 19th, 2010