Editor's Note:
After a week of consolidating sideways the major averages slipped lower into the weekend. Investors must be nervous as we approach earnings season. There was plenty of profit taking and a number of bearish reversals on Friday.

-James

Current Portfolio:


BULLISH Play Updates

ACI Worldwide Inc. - ACIW - close: 32.44 change: -0.13

Stop Loss: 30.90
Target(s): --.--, 34.75
Current Gain/Loss: + 9.4%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
04/09 update: As expected shares of ACIW are starting to fade lower. At the very least we should expect a dip to $32.00 and probably the $31.00 area. Once again I am suggesting more conservative traders to take profits now. I am not suggesting new positions. We will plan on exiting ahead of the late April earnings.

Officially we're aiming for the $34.75 level but plan to exit ahead of the late April earnings report.

FYI: ACIW does have options but the spreads are very wide, which puts us at a significant disadvantage.

SMALL bullish positions

Current Position: Long ACIW stock @ $29.63

04/02 New stop loss @ 30.90
03/24 first exit was at $32.25 (+8.8%)
03/23 Sell half now! exit price at the open on 3/24
03/22 New stop loss @ 29.75, 1st Target adjusted to $32.85
03/19 New stop loss @ 29.35

chart:

Entry on February 25 at $29.63
Earnings Date 04/28/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 122 thousand
Listed on February 24th, 2010


AutoNation, Inc. - AN - close: 34.85 change: -0.91

Stop Loss: 33.49
Target(s): 38.00, 39.75
Current Gain/Loss: - 1.1%
Time Frame: 3 to 5 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
04/09 update: ANN completely erased the last two days of gains. In the process the stock has produced its fourth failed rally near $36 in the last two weeks. I am growing more cautious on this trade. We should expect a dip toward support in the $34.00-33.50 zone. Wait for the dip or a bounce in that area before considering new positions.

Our upside targets are $38.00 and $39.75 although that might be a little optimistic. We do not want to hold over the late April earnings report.

Current Position: Long AN stock @ $35.25

- or -

Long the May $36 calls (AN1121E36) Entry @ $1.15

chart:

Entry on March 30 at $35.25
Earnings Date 04/26/11 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 972 thousand
Listed on March 29th, 2011


Aon Corp. - AON - close: 53.27 change: -0.90

Stop Loss: 50.90
Target(s): 59.00
Current Gain/Loss: -0.9%
Time Frame: 4 to 5 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
04/09 update: Bearish engulfing candlestick patterns were popular on Friday. Shares of AON produced one of these bearish reversals although this pattern normally needs to see follow through lower. I would be careful here and probably wait for another bounce from the $53.00 or $52.00 levels before considering new bullish positions. More conservative traders may want to raise their stops since AON is testing support near $53.00. Our time frame is the end of April since earnings are due out in early May. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for AON is bullish with a $90 target.

Current Position: Long AON stock @ $53.76

- or -

Long the May $55.00 call (AON1121E55) Entry @ $0.95

chart:

Entry on April 4 at $53.76
Earnings Date 05/02/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.2 million
Listed on April 2nd, 2011


Danaher Corp. - DHR - close: 51.55 change: -0.50

Stop Loss: 49.95
Target(s): 55.90
Current Gain/Loss: - 1.9%
Time Frame: about 3 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
04/09 update: DHR is still consolidating lower. The stock should find some support in the $51.00-50.50 zone near the bottom of its bullish channel and its 50-dma. Readers may want to wait for a bounce from these levels before considering new bullish positions. We have less than two weeks with earnings coming up on April 21st. I'm listing a stop loss at $49.95 but more conservative traders might want to use a stop closer to the $51.00 level (the $50.80 mark would work).

Current Position: long DHR stock @ $52.57

- or -

Long the May $55 call (DHR1121E55) entry @ $0.70

chart:

Entry on April 4 at $52.57
Earnings Date 04/21/11 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.9 million
Listed on April 2nd, 2011


Dick's Sporting Goods Inc. - DKS - close: 41.07 change: -0.07

Stop Loss: 38.45
Target(s): 42.75, 44.75
Current Gain/Loss: +4.2%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
04/09 update: After Tuesday's rally higher shares of DKS spent the last few days consolidating sideways. I am making some adjustments to our strategy. We'll move the stop loss higher to $38.45. I'm moving our first target to $42.75. Our second target will be $44.75. Wait for another dip or bounce in the $40.50-40.00 zone before considering new bullish positions. More conservative traders might want to tighten their stop even higher.

FYI: The Point & Figure chart for DKS is bullish with a $65 target.

- Small Positions -

Current Position: Long DKS stock @ $39.39

- or -

Long the June $40 calls (DKS1118F40) Entry @ $2.35

04/09 New stop loss @ 38.45, New targets @ 42.75 and $44.75
04/02 New stop loss @ 37.45

chart:

Entry on March 21 at $39.39
Earnings Date 05/18/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.6 million
Listed on March 19th, 2010


eBay Inc. - EBAY - close: 31.14 change: -0.39

Stop Loss: 29.90
Target(s): 34.90, --.--
Current Gain/Loss: - 0.3%
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
04/09 update: I am starting to wonder if EBAY has been forming a bear-flag pattern. Shares are slowly working on a trend of higher lows and higher highs but it's not getting anywhere. I am raising our stop loss to $29.90 but more conservative traders may want to consider an early exit now to avoid and/or minimize any losses. I am not suggesting new positions at this time. I am removing the second target.

Our first target is $34.90. We do not want to hold over EBAY's late April earnings report.

Current Position: Long EBAY stock @ $31.25

- or -

Long the May $33.00 calls (EBAY1121E33) Entry @ $0.75

chart:

Entry on March 28 at $31.25
Earnings Date 04/27/11 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 10 million
Listed on March 24th, 2011


Ford Motor Co. - F - close: 15.33 change: -0.20

Stop Loss: 14.45
Target(s): 16.45, 17.45
Current Gain/Loss: + 1.8%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
04/09 update: The pull back in Ford on Friday can be used as a new bullish entry point. I've been suggesting readers wait for a dip into the $15.25-15.00 zone and Ford slipped to $15.16 intraday. This happens to be close to Ford's 50-dma. I am adjusting our stop loss higher to $14.45. More conservative traders might want to use a stop closer to $14.70 instead. Our targets are $16.45 and $17.45.

Current Position: Long F stock @ $15.05

- or -

Long the April $15 calls (F1116D15) Entry @ $0.33

chart:

Entry on March 24 at $15.05
Earnings Date 04/21/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 82 million
Listed on March 15th, 2010


Gildan Activewear - GIL - close: 32.37 change: -0.55

Stop Loss: 30.95
Target(s): 34.85, 38.00
Current Gain/Loss: + 6.6%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
04/09 update: There should be no surprises here. I cautioned readers to expect a dip toward $32.00, which should be support. Unfortunately we are running out of time on our April $30 calls. I am suggesting an early exit for the April $30 calls now! and we will raise our stop loss for the remainder of our position to $30.95. I am not suggesting new positions at current levels.

Current Position: long GIL stock @ 30.35

- or -

April $30 call (GIL1116D30) Entry @ $1.60, Exit @ 2.20 (+37.5%)

04/09 New stop loss @ 30.95
04/09 Exit the April $30 calls now! Option @ +37.5%
03/19 New stop loss @ 29.70
03/08 Triggered $ 30.35
03/01 Adjusted buy-the-dip trigger to $30.35
03/01 Adjusted stop loss to $28.99

chart:

Entry on March 8 at $30.35
Earnings Date 05/12/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 634 thousand
Listed on February 28th, 2010


NVIDIA Corp. - NVDA - close: 17.55 change: -0.55

Stop Loss: 16.85
Target(s): 19.95, 21.75
Current Gain/Loss: - 3.5%
Time Frame: 4 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
04/09 update: Friday was not a good day for NVDA. The stock reversed Thursday's gains with a -3.0% decline. Shares are back to testing the $17.50 level and look poised to drop toward $17.00. More conservative traders will want to seriously consider an early exit right now. I am not suggesting new positions at this time. Our April calls are pretty much out of luck at this point unless NVDA suddenly rockets higher.

Our first target for NVDA is at $19.95. Our second target is $21.75.

Prior Comments:
This is a very speculative, higher-risk trade. Remember to keep your positions small to limit your risk.

- small bullish positions -

Current Position: long NVDA stock @ $18.19

- or -

Long the April $20 calls (NVDA1116D20) Entry @ $0.72

chart:

Entry on March 14 at $18.19
Earnings Date 05/12/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 35 million
Listed on March 12th, 2010


PACCAR Inc. - PCAR - close: 51.28 change: -1.51

Stop Loss: 48.95
Target(s): 54.75, 57.00
Current Gain/Loss: unopened
Time Frame: two or three weeks
New Positions: Yes, see trigger

Comments:
04/09 update: Believe it or not we're still on the sidelines with PCAR. The stock fell -2.8% but the low on Friday was $51.09. I am suggesting we buy the stock (or calls) on a dip at $51.00. More conservative traders can wait for a dip closer to $50.00 and its 200-dma. This could end up being a really short-term trade with April earnings coming up quick. Our first target is $54.75. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for PCAR is bullish with a $69 target.

Trigger @ 51.00

Suggested Position: buy PCAR stock @ 51.00

- or -

Buy the May $49.70 call (PCAR1121E49.70)

chart:

Entry on April x at $xx.xx
Earnings Date 04/19/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.8 million
Listed on April 6th, 2011


Patterson-UTI Energy Inc. - PTEN - close: 29.23 change: +1.21

Stop Loss: 26.75
Target(s): 31.50, 34.00
Current Gain/Loss: + 3.4%
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
04/09 update: Shares of PTEN were upgraded on Friday morning and this produced a gap higher. The stock closed up +4.3% and that's after paring its gains. There is a chance PTEN might fill the gap so readers may want to wait on launching new positions. I am raising our stop loss to $26.75.

Prior Comments:
The $30.00 mark might offer some resistance but I'm targeting a climb to $31.50 and the $34.00 levels.

Current Position: Long PTEN stock @ 28.25

- or -

Long the May $30 calls (PTEN1121E30) Entry @ $0.95

04/09 New stop loss @ $26.75

chart:

Entry on March 25 at $28.25
Earnings Date 04/28/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.8 million
Listed on March 17th, 2010


Ryder Systems Inc. - R - close: 49.72 change: -1.17

Stop Loss: 47.95
Target(s): 53.00
Current Gain/Loss: - 1.0%
Time Frame: 3 to 5 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
04/09 update: We have been expecting R to pull back toward the $50.00 area. Friday's decline was a little bit worse than expected but shares should have support near their 50-dma near the $49 area. More conservative traders may want to wait for a dip or a bounce near $49.00 before considering new bullish positions. I am raising our stop loss to $47.95. Our target is the $53.00 level. We do not want to hold over the late April earnings report.

Current Position: Long R stock @ $50.25

- or -

Long the May $50 call (R1121E50) Entry @ $2.55

04/09 New stop loss @ 47.95

chart:

Entry on March 30 at $50.25
Earnings Date 04/21/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 388 thousand
Listed on March 26th, 2011


SAIC, Inc. - SAI - close: 17.25 change: -0.05

Stop Loss: 16.75
Target(s): 18.40
Current Gain/Loss: - 0.4%
Time Frame: 8 to 9 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
04/09 update: Traders bought the dip twice near $17.20 on Friday. We can use this dip as a new entry point but given the action in the broader market I suspect SAI might test the $17.00 area soon. It might be better to wait for a dip near $17 before initiating positions.

Our first bullish target is $18.40. Keep in mind that SAI does not move very fast. While the stock does have options I prefer the stock to avoid the time decay on the options. I will list the August $18 calls for more aggressive traders.

Current Position: long SAI stock @ $17.33

- or -

Long the August $18.00 call (SAI1120H18) entry @ $0.55

chart:

Entry on April 6 at $17.33
Earnings Date 06/02/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.4 million
Listed on April 5th, 2011


Williams Companies, Inc. - WMB - close: 30.83 change: -0.19

Stop Loss: 29.90
Target(s): 34.50
Current Gain/Loss: - 1.3%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
04/09 update: The long-term trend for WMB is up but the stock has been struggling to make progress the last several days. I am not suggesting new positions at this time. We will raise our stop loss to $29.90. More conservative traders may want to exit early to minimize any losses.

Current Position: long WMB stock @ $31.26

- or -

Long the May $30 calls (WMB1121E30) Entry @ $2.10

04/09 New stop loss @ 29.90

chart:

Entry on March 28 at $31.26
Earnings Date 05/05/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 7.0 million
Listed on March 26th, 2011


BEARISH Play Updates

Overseas Shipholding Group - OSG - close: 31.17 change: -0.31

Stop Loss: 33.10
Target(s): 27.75, 25.25
Current Gain/Loss: + 3.2%
Time Frame: 8 to 9 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
04/09 update: Friday was a relatively quiet day for OSG with a -0.9% decline. The stock is trying to hold the $31 level. Look for another failed rally near $32 if you're looking for a new entry point. Don't be surprised to see another bounce from $30.00. Our first target is $27.75.

Our plan was to use small positions to limit our risk. The P&F chart is forecasting a $25 target.

- Small Bearish Positions -

Current Position: Short OSG stock @ $32.20

- or -

Long the April $30 PUTS (OSG1116P30) Entry @ $0.75

04/05 New stop loss @ 33.10
03/16 New stop loss @ 33.55

chart:

Entry on March 11 at $32.20
Earnings Date 05/04/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 705 thousand
Listed on March 10th, 2010


CLOSED BULLISH PLAYS

Harley Davidson - HOG - close: 39.56 change: -0.63

Stop Loss: 39.75
Target(s): 47.00, 49.75
Current Gain/Loss: - 5.6%
Time Frame: 3 to 5 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
04/09 update: Our HOG trade did not pan out. Shares have continued to correct lower. The stock is now testing its March lows. Our stop loss was hit at $39.75.

Closed Position: long HOG stock @ $42.13, Exit @ 39.75 (-5.6%)

- or -

May $45 calls (HOG1121E45) entry @ $0.95, Exit @ 0.25 (-73.6%)

04/08 Stopped out $39.75 (-5.6%), Option @ -73.6%

chart:

Entry on March 31 at $42.13
Earnings Date 04/19/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.0 million
Listed on March 30th, 2011


Polycom Inc. - PLCM - close: 46.93 change: -1.45

Stop Loss: 47.40
Target(s): 54.85,
Current Gain/Loss: - 5.4%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
04/09 update: PLCM underperformed on Friday with a -3% decline and a breakdown under support at its 50-dma and its early April lows. Our stop loss was hit at $47.40. Our plan was to keep our position size small to limit our risk.

- Small Bullish Positions -

Closed Position: Long PLCM stock @ $50.18, Exit @ 47.40 (-5.4%)

- or -

May $52.50 call (PLCM1121E52.5) Entry @ 2.00, Exit @ 0.85 (-57.5%)

04/08 Stopped out $47.40 (-5.4%), Option @ -57.5%
04/02 New stop loss @ 47.40
03/23 Entry price on the May $52.50 call is an estimate.

chart:

Entry on March 23 at $50.18
Earnings Date 04/21/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 967 thousand
Listed on March 22nd, 2011


Tesoro Corp - TSO - close: 25.79 change: -0.89

Stop Loss: 25.75
Target(s): 29.90
Current Gain/Loss: - 1.5%
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
04/09 update: Investors might be concerned about demand destruction as oil prices continue to rise. Shares of TSO delivered their third decline in a row. Shares hit our stop loss at $25.75 on Friday afternoon.

Prior Comments:
This is a higher-risk, more aggressive trade. Keep your position size small.

Closed Position: Long TSO stock @ 26.15, Exit @ 25.75 (-1.5%)

- or -

May $27.00 calls (TSO1121E27) Entry @ $1.60, Exit @ 1.25 (-21.8%)

04/08 Stopped out @ 25.75 (-1.5%), Option @ -21.8%
04/07 New stop loss @ 25.75
04/05 New stop loss @ 24.90

chart:

Entry on March 24 at $26.15
Earnings Date 04/25/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 8.2 million
Listed on March 21st, 2010


Weyerhaeuser Co. - WY - close: 23.61 change: -0.49

Stop Loss: 23.40
Target(s): 27.25, 29.25
Current Gain/Loss: - 4.3%
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
04/09 update: We have been worried about WY the last couple of days. The stock actually gapped open higher on Friday morning but traders immediately sold into strength. The stock plunged to a new relative low and hit our stop loss at $23.60. The move looks like a new failed rally/bearish reversal pattern.

Prior Comments:
Keep your positions small to limit your risk.

Suggested Position: long WY stock @ $24.68

- or -

July $25 call (WY1116G25) Entry @ $1.64, Exit @ 0.80 (-51.2%)

04/08 Stopped out @ 23.60 (-4.3%), Option @ -51.2%
04/07 New stop loss @ 23.60
03/24 New stop @ 23.40

chart:

Entry on March 16 at $24.68
Earnings Date 04/29/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 6.4 million
Listed on March 15th, 2010