Editor's Note:
The markets are at new two-year highs and the major indices are starting to look a little bit overbought. I'd love to see a dip so we can launch new positions.

Per our plan we have exited the CPO trade and OSG trades early. Readers may want to take profits now in our IAU gold ETF trade.

-James

Current Portfolio:


BULLISH Play Updates

Autodesk Inc. - ADSK - close: 44.98 change: -0.02

Stop Loss: 41.90
Target(s): 48.50
Current Gain/Loss: unopened
Time Frame: 3 to 4 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see trigger

Comments:
04/30 update: ADSK spent the week consolidating sideways after its new two-year high on the 25th. We've been waiting for a dip to $44.25. I am moving our buy-the-dip entry point down to $44.00 and we'll leave the stop at $41.90. Our target is $48.50 but we'll plan on exiting ahead of the mid May earnings report.

Trigger @ $44.25

Suggested Position: buy ADSK stock @ $43.75

- or -

Buy the May $45 calls (ADSK1121E45) current ask $1.60

chart:

Entry on April x at $xx.xx
Earnings Date 05/19/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.1 million
Listed on April 23rd, 2011


Sothebys Holding - BID - close: 50.52 change: +0.60

Stop Loss: 47.95
Target(s): 54.90
Current Gain/Loss: + 0.3%
Time Frame: 2 to 3 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
04/30 update: It's decision time. We can't find a confirmed earnings date for BID's earnings announcement and we don't want to hold over the report. Odds are BID will report in the next two weeks. More conservative traders will want to exit immediately to avoid the risk of holding over the earnings announcement. I am not suggesting new bullish positions at this time and we will raise our stop loss to $47.95. The May 5th date is still unconfirmed so we'll have to take it day by day.

Current Position: long BID stock @ $50.35

- or -

Long the May $50 calls (BID1121E50) entry @ $2.60

04/30 New stop loss @ 47.95
04/30 No confirmed earnings date. Conservative traders will want to exit now. No new positions.

chart:

Entry on April 21 at $50.35
Earnings Date 05/05/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.0 million
Listed on April 20th, 2011


Complete Production Services - CPX - close: 33.94 change: +0.43

Stop Loss: 29.90
Target(s): 34.75, 37.25
Current Gain/Loss: unopened
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see trigger

Comments:
04/30 update: There is no change from my prior comments on CPX. The market still looks short-term overbought and due for a dip. I'm suggesting we use a trigger to open bullish positions in CPX at $32.00. More conservative traders could wait for a dip closer to $31.00 instead. We'll set our stop loss at $29.90. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for CPX is bullish with a $47 target.

Buy-the-dip Trigger @ $32.00

Suggested Position: Buy CPX stock @ $32.00

- or -

buy the June $35 call (CPX1118F35)

chart:

Entry on April x at $xx.xx
Earnings Date 04/21/11
Average Daily Volume: 2.2 million
Listed on April 28th, 2011


Discover Financial Services - DFS - close: 24.84 change: +0.17

Stop Loss: 23.40
Target(s): 27.25
Current Gain/Loss: unopened
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see trigger

Comments:
04/30 update: Hmm... DFS doesn't want to cooperate with our buy-the-dip strategy. Currently our plan is to launch bullish positions at $24.10. Yet DFS is inching higher again after several days of consolidating sideways. We will keep the trigger at $24.10 but I'm adding an alternative entry point to buy a breakout at $25.25. The high last week was $25.11. If triggered at $24.10 then our stop loss is at $23.40. If triggered at $25.25 then we'll use a stop under last week's low at $24.20. If DFS hits our breakout trigger then option traders can use the May $25 calls instead. We want to keep our position size small to limit our risk.

Buy-the-Dip Trigger @ $24.10 (Small Positions)

- or -

Buy-the-breakout at $25.25 (stock or May $25 calls)

Suggested Position: buy DFS stock @ $24.10

- or -

Buy the May $24 calls (DFS1121E24)

04/30 Added an alternative entry point @ $25.25
04/26 New trigger @ 24.10, New stop loss @ 23.40

chart:

Entry on April x at $xx.xx
Earnings Date 06/23/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 5.9 million
Listed on April 12th, 2011


Dick's Sporting Goods Inc. - DKS - close: 40.93 change: +0.10

Stop Loss: 39.40
Target(s): 42.75, 44.75
Current Gain/Loss: +3.9%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
04/30 update: I was suggesting readers look for a dip near $40.00 or the 50-dma as a new entry point but DKS rallied off its 40-dma on Friday morning. Nimble traders could launch positions now or wait for some follow through higher before initiating positions. I do want to point out that DKS appears to be forming a possible bearish wedge pattern. That's a bit worrisome. Keep your positions small to limit our risk.

FYI: The Point & Figure chart for DKS is bullish with a $65 target.

- Small Positions -

Current Position: Long DKS stock @ $39.39

- or -

Long the June $40 calls (DKS1118F40) Entry @ $2.35

04/26 New stop loss @ 39.40
04/16 New stop loss @ 38.95
04/09 New stop loss @ 38.45, New targets @ 42.75 and $44.75
04/02 New stop loss @ 37.45

chart:

Entry on March 21 at $39.39
Earnings Date 05/18/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.6 million
Listed on March 19th, 2010


EMC Corp. - EMC - close: 28.34 change: +0.02

Stop Loss: 26.45
Target(s): 29.95, 32.25
Current Gain/Loss: unopened
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see trigger

Comments:
04/30 update: There is no change from my prior comments on EMC. The stock remains near multi-year highs but momentum has stalled. Aggressive traders might want to consider buying a breakout higher (past $28.75). I would prefer to buy a dip so I am suggesting a trigger to open positions at $27.55. More conservative traders could wait for a potential dip closer to the $27.00 mark instead.

FYI: The Point & Figure chart for EMC is bullish with a $34.50 target.

Buy-the-dip Trigger @ $27.55

Suggested Position: buy EMC stock @ $27.55

- or -

Buy the June $27.00 calls (EMC1118F27)

chart:

Entry on April x at $xx.xx
Earnings Date 04/20/11
Average Daily Volume: 21.4 million
Listed on April 27th, 2011


iShares Gold Trust - IAU - close: 15.27 change: +0.26

Stop Loss: 14.38
Target(s): 15.75
Current Gain/Loss: + 6.2%
Time Frame: 9 to 12 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
04/30 update: Readers may want to start taking profits in our IAU play right now. Gold saw a huge surge higher last week and the precious metal looks short-term overbought and due for some profit taking. I am not suggesting new positions at this time. We will raise our stop loss to $14.38. An alternative stop could be $14.55 or $14.75.

We do want to keep our position size small. Our first upside target is $15.75.

FYI: If the IAU moves too slowly for you then check out the double-long (2x) gold ETF (symbol: DGP).

- Small Positions Only -

Current Position: Long the IAU @ $14.36

- or -

Long the July $14.00 call (IAU1116G14) Entry @ $0.60

04/30 New stop loss @ 14.38, consider taking profits now.
04/27 New stop loss @ 14.15

chart:

Entry on April 11 at $14.36
Earnings Date --/--/--
Average Daily Volume: 3.8 million
Listed on April 9th, 2011


Oracle Corp. - ORCL - close: 35.96 change: +0.67

Stop Loss: 32.95
Target(s): 38.00
Current Gain/Loss: + 3.6%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
04/30 update: Shares of ORCL were showing relative strength on Friday and surged to another new multi-year high near $36. The move was fueled in part by positive news in a long-running court battle between ORCL and SAP. Rival SAP was ordered to pay a $1.3 billion bond on Friday, the settlement awarded to ORCL in a jury case last year. SAP is still appealing the verdict.

I am not suggesting new positions at this time. I would prefer to launch positions on a dip in the $34.50-34.00 zone.

Current Position: Long ORCL stock @ $34.70

- or -

Long the June $35 call (ORCL1118F35) Entry @ $0.98

chart:

Entry on April 25 at $34.70
Earnings Date 06/23/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 25.1 million
Listed on April 23rd, 2011


SAIC, Inc. - SAI - close: 17.40 change: -0.13

Stop Loss: 16.95
Target(s): 18.40
Current Gain/Loss: + 0.4%
Time Frame: 8 to 9 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
04/30 update: Warning! The action in SAI over the last three days has produced a bearish reversal pattern. I warned readers to expect a dip but that dip might be deeper than previously expected. More conservative traders are encouraged to exit now to avoid or minimize a loss. I am not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target is $18.40.

Current Position: long SAI stock @ $17.33

- or -

Long the August $18.00 call (SAI1120H18) entry @ $0.55

04/30 Warning, SAI has produced a reversal. consider an early exit
04/27 New stop loss @ 16.95

chart:

Entry on April 6 at $17.33
Earnings Date 06/02/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.4 million
Listed on April 5th, 2011


Steven Madden, Ltd. - SHOO - close: 53.15 change: +0.25

Stop Loss: 49.95
Target(s): 54.75
Current Gain/Loss: + 3.3%
Time Frame: less than 2 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
04/30 update: SHOO is up several days in a row. Readers may want to go ahead and take profits now. We only have a few days left. SHOO is due to report earnings on Thursday morning, May 5th. We do not want to hold over the earnings report so we need to plan on exiting on May 4th at the closing bell.

I am not suggesting new positions at this time and we are raising the stop loss to $49.95. Conservative traders may want to put their stop at $51.45.

(Small Positions)

Current Position: long SHOO stock @ $51.45

04/30 New stop @ 49.95, consider an early exit now.

chart:

Entry on April 26 at $51.45
Earnings Date 05/05/11 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 235 thousand
Listed on April 25th, 2011


Target Corp. - TGT - close: 49.10 change: -1.12

Stop Loss: 49.40
Target(s): 53.75, 55.90
Current Gain/Loss: unopened
Time Frame: about 3 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see trigger

Comments:
04/30 update: Wow! TGT continues to underperform the market and the retail sector. The stock has produced a failed rally at technical resistance near the 50-dma this past week. Friday saw shares plunge toward the bottom of its recent trading range. If TGT closes under $49.00 we will drop it as a bullish candidate. At the moment we are still on the sidelines waiting to buy a breakout with a trigger at $51.25. Aggressive traders might want to go so far as to consider bearish positions on a breakdown under $49.00.

Prior Comments:
I am suggesting we open bullish positions in TGT at $51.25 but we want to keep our position size small. If shares fail to hit our target we'll plan on exiting ahead of the May 18th earnings report to avoid holding over the report. Our targets are $53.75 and $55.90.

Trigger @ $51.25 (Small Positions)

Suggested Position: buy TGT stock @ 51.25

- or -

Buy the May $52.50 calls (TGT1121E52.5)

chart:

Entry on April x at $xx.xx
Earnings Date 05/18/11 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 6.3 million
Listed on April 27th, 2011


CLOSED BULLISH PLAYS

Corn Products Intl. - CPO - close: 55.10 change: +0.33

Stop Loss: 52.40
Target(s): 57.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 3.3%
Time Frame: just over 2 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
04/30 update: Our time has run out for this CPO trade. Our plan was to exit on Friday at the close to avoid holding over earnings on Monday.

(Small Positions)

closed Position: long CPO stock @ $53.32, exit 55.10 (+3.3%)

- or -

May $55.00 call (CPO1121E55) Entry @ $1.05, exit 1.60 (+52.3%)

04/29 exit early @ 55.10 (+3.3%), Option @ +52.3%
04/27 New stop loss @ 52.40

chart:

Entry on April 20 at $53.32
Earnings Date 05/02/11 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 771 thousand
Listed on April 19th, 2011


CLOSED BEARISH PLAYS

Overseas Shipholding Group - OSG - close: 27.86 change: +0.32

Stop Loss: 30.35
Target(s): 27.75, 26.25
Current Gain/Loss: +13.4%
Time Frame: 8 to 9 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
04/30 update: We are almost out of time with OSG. The company is due to report earnings on May 3rd. I suggested we exit early on Friday at the closing bell. Our plan was to use small positions to limit our risk.

- Small Bearish Positions -

closed Position: Short OSG stock @ $32.20, exit $27.86 (+13.4%)

04/28 Exit early @ 27.86 (+13.4%)
04/26 Plan to exit on Friday at the close
04/18 New stop loss @ 30.35
04/12 Exit April Puts now ($1.45bid, +93.3%)
04/12 Take Profits (sell half) of our OSG position (+11.5%)
04/11 New stop loss @ 32.25
04/05 New stop loss @ 33.10
03/16 New stop loss @ 33.55

chart:

Entry on March 11 at $32.20
Earnings Date 05/03/11 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 705 thousand
Listed on March 10th, 2010