Editor's Note:
Ford has been underperforming for several days now but this Monday could get ugly as investors react to new headlines this weekend regarding Ford's legal defeat in a class action suit.

Meanwhile I'm suggesting an early exit in our ROSE trade.

-James

Current Portfolio:


BULLISH Play Updates

Cheesecake Factory Inc. - CAKE - close: 29.89 change: -0.32

Stop Loss: 28.95
Target(s): 33.95, 37.00
Current Gain/Loss: - 5.2%
Time Frame: 8 to 10 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
06/11 update: Friday was a rocky session for CAKE but traders bought the dip twice near $29.40. While I am tempted to buy the afternoon bounce I'm very concerned about the sell-off in the market's major averages. If the market downtrend continues then CAKE could breakdown under its 200-dma and the $29.00 level. At this point I would wait before launching new positions. Let's see how CAKE performers on Monday.

Earlier Comments:
Keep in mind that CAKE doesn't move very fast (at least not normally) so we'll need some patience for this trade to work. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for CAKE is bullish with a $59 target.

Current Position: Long CAKE stock @ $31.53

- or -

Long the July $33 call (CAKE1116G33) Entry @ $0.75

06/09 CAKE is bouncing from the 200-dma as expected.
06/04 More conservative traders may want to exit early. We are expecting a drop to the 200-dma.

chart:

Entry on May 20 at $31.53
Earnings Date 07/21/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.0 million
Listed on May 19th, 2011


Dr. Pepper Snapple Group - DPS - close: 40.31 change: +0.40

Stop Loss: 38.95
Target(s): 44.90
Current Gain/Loss: + 0.1%
Time Frame: 8 to 12 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
06/11 update: DPS was showing a little strength on Friday with a bounce back above $40. Shares closed in positive territory. Normally I would consider this bounce near support at $40 as a new bullish entry point but I'm very concerned about the market's recent weakness. If you do choose to launch positions now I would use a very tight stop loss. The low this past week was near the $39.70 area. Consider a stop loss at $39.65.

Current Position: Long DPS stock @ $40.25

- or -

Long Aug $45 call (DPS1120H45) Entry @ $0.30

06/04 new stop loss @ 38.95

chart:

Entry on June 3 at $40.25
Earnings Date 07/28/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.1 million
Listed on May 14th, 2011


Ecolab Inc. - ECL - close: 53.80 change: -0.59

Stop Loss: 51.90
Target(s): 57.00, 59.90
Current Gain/Loss: + 0.8%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
06/11 update: Thursday's big bounce has been almost completely erased. I am still expecting a dip toward what should be support near $53.00. More conservative traders may want to wait for a bounce from the 50-dma instead before considering new positions.

Current Position: Long ECL stock @ 53.35

- or -

Long July $55 call (ECL1116G55) Entry @ $0.60

06/04 new stop loss @ 51.90

chart:

Entry on May 26 at $53.35
Earnings Date 07/26/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.5 million
Listed on May 18th, 2011


NVIDIA Corp. - NVDA - close: 17.14 change: -0.25

Stop Loss: 16.70
Target(s): 19.50
Current Gain/Loss: - 1.6%
Time Frame: 1 to 2 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
06/11 update: Warning! NVDA did not bounce as expected. Shares opened lower at $17.40 and fell to a -1.4% decline on the session. I am not suggesting new positions at this time. If stocks don't see a bounce on Monday then odds are good this aggressive trade is going to get stopped out. No new positions at this time. Our plan was to keep our position size small to limit our risk.

- Small Positions Only -

Current Position: Long NVDA stock @ $17.40

- or -

Long July $18 call (NVDA1116G18) Entry @ $0.68

chart:

Entry on June 10 at $17.40
Earnings Date 08/11/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 19.8 million
Listed on June 9th, 2011


BEARISH Play Updates

Aon Corp. - AON - close: 50.20 change: -0.60

Stop Loss: 52.75
Target(s): 46.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 2.7%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
06/11 update: Friday's market weakness pushed AON closer to round-number support at the $50.00 level. If the market is positive on Monday I would expect a bounce in AON but the overall trend remains bearish. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
Our target is the $46.50 level. The option spreads on AON are a little wide. Conservative traders may not want to play the options.

(small positions only)

Current Position: short AON stock @ 51.61

- or -

Long the June $50 PUT (AON1118R50) entry @ $0.45

05/31 New stop loss @ 52.75
05/23 gap down entry @ 51.61

chart:

Entry on May 23 at $51.61
Earnings Date 07/29/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.7 million
Listed on May 21st, 2011


AO Smith Corp. - AOS - close: 39.11 change: -0.60

Stop Loss: 42.05
Target(s): 36.00, 33.00
Current Gain/Loss: + 2.0%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
06/11 update: AOS continues to sink under a trend of lower highs. The stock is poised to breakdown past its May lows near $39.00 soon. There is no change from my prior comments. You can launch positions here or wait for a new relative low.

FYI: The Point & Figure chart for AOS is bearish with a $33 target. Traders should also note that the most recent data listed short interest at 5% of the relatively small 38.2 million share float. That does raise the risk for a possible short squeeze and explains the volatile rallies in this stock.

NOTE: AOS does have options but the spreads appear too wide for us to trade them.

Current Position: short AOS stock @ $39.92

chart:

Entry on June 6 at $39.92
Earnings Date 07/20/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 312 thousand
Listed on June 4th, 2011


Ford Motor Co. - F - close: 13.32 change: -0.45

Stop Loss: 15.01
Target(s): 12.75, and TBD
Current Gain/Loss: + 7.2%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
06/11 update: Shares of Ford were big underperformers on Friday with a -3.2% decline and new multi-month lows. The stock almost hit our target at $13.25 but we're going to adjust our target lower based on some new headlines out on Friday night.

After the bell on Friday night a new story broke regarding one of Ford's legal battles. An Ohio judge ruled against Ford and ordered the company to pay $2 billion in damages toward a large number of Ford dealerships. In this class action suit with approximately 3,000 car dealerships, Ford has been found guilty of overcharging some dealers while providing unpublished discounts to others. Ford is appealing the verdict but you can bet that news of a $2 billion penalty will send the stock lower.

Until tonight our exit target on Ford has been $13.25. I am suggesting we adjust our exit strategy. We'll set our first target to take profits at $12.75 and our final target we will leave undetermined. We'll see how Ford performers on Monday. Our final target might be $12.00 or it might be $11.00. There is a good chance that Ford might gap open lower on Monday morning.

Please note our new stop loss at $14.55. The plan was to keep our position size small to limit our risk.

Small Positions!

Current Position: Short F stock @ $14.40

- or -

Long July $15 PUT (F1116S15) Entry @ $0.90

06/11 new targets at $12.75 and TBD.
06/11 new stop loss @ 14.55
06/08 new stop loss @ 15.01

chart:

Entry on May 25 at $14.40
Earnings Date 07/21/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 57 million
Listed on May 24th, 2011


Honeywell Intl. - HON - close: 55.53 change: -0.93

Stop Loss: 60.15
Target(s): 54.00
Current Gain/Loss: + 3.6%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
06/11 update: HON sank to new ten-week lows on Friday. I am not suggesting new positions at this time. More conservative traders may want to take profits early near $55.00. Currently our target is $54.00.

Earlier Comments:
We do want to keep our position size small to limit our risk.

- Small Positions -

Current Position: short HON stock @ 57.65

- or -

Long July $55 PUT (HON1116S55) Entry @ $0.75

chart:

Entry on June 2 at $57.65
Earnings Date 07/22/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.1 million
Listed on June 1st, 2011


Marriott Intl. Inc. - MAR - close: 34.04 change: -0.76

Stop Loss: 37.55
Target(s): 33.65, and 30.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 3.8%
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
06/11 update: MAR continues to sink and the stock is nearing potential support at its April lows. I am adjusting our exit strategy. We want to take some money off the table at $33.65. We'll leave our final target at $30.50. MAR is looking oversold here and due for a bounce, which might occur near the April lows. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Current Position: Short MAR stock @ $35.39

- or -

Long July $33 PUT (MAR1116S33) Entry @ $0.60

06/11 Adjusted exit targets to $33.65 and 30.50

chart:

Entry on June 8 at $35.39
Earnings Date 07/13/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.7 million
Listed on June 7th, 2011


St. Jude Medical - STJ - close: 48.90 change: -0.70

Stop Loss: 51.05
Target(s): 47.00, 45.75
Current Gain/Loss: + 4.1%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
06/11 update: STJ spent most of last week bouncing (consolidating) in a bear-flag shaped pattern. I am not suggesting new positions at this time. We'll wait and see if shares fail at overhead resistance near $50.00 or at the $51.00 levels.

Earlier Comments:
We wanted to keep our position size small (about half or less than a normal trade) to limit our risk.

(Small Positions)

Current Position: Short STJ stock @ 51.00

- or -

Long the June $50 PUT (SJT1118R50) Entry @ $1.00

06/04 New stop loss @ 51.05, added second target at $45.75
05/23 New stop loss @ 52.26

chart:

Entry on May 20 at $51.00
Earnings Date 07/21/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.6 million
Listed on May 16th, 2011


Target Corp. - TGT - close: 46.96 change: -0.46

Stop Loss: 50.15
Target(s): 45.15
Current Gain/Loss: unopened
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see trigger

Comments:
06/11 update: TGT appears to have found new support near $46.50 this past week. I don't see any changes from my prior comments. We don't want to chase TGT here. The plan is to wait for an oversold bounce back toward what should be new resistance in the $48.50-49.00 area. I'm suggesting a trigger to open bearish positions at $48.50. If triggered we'll use a stop loss at $50.15. Our first target is $45.15. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for TGT is bearish with a $43 target.

Trigger @ 48.50

Suggested Position: short TGT stock @ 48.50

- or -

buy the July $47 PUT (TGT1116S47) current ask $1.24

chart:

Entry on June x at $xx.xx
Earnings Date 08/18/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 7.1 million
Listed on June 4th, 2011


CLOSED BULLISH PLAYS

Rosetta Resources - ROSE - close: $45.82 change: -1.18

Stop Loss: 44.75
Target(s): 54.00
Current Gain/Loss: - 3.2%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
06/11 update: There was no follow through on Thursday's big bounce in ROSE. I am suggesting an early exit now to cut our losses. More aggressive traders may want to give it more time since ROSE has not yet broken support near the $45.00 level.

-Small Bullish Positions-

closed Position: Long ROSE stock @ $47.35, exit 45.82 (-3.2%)

- or -

July $50 call (ROSE1116G50) Entry @ $1.95, exit $1.10 (-43.5%)

06/11 exit early. ROSE @ 45.82 (-3.2%), Option @ -43.5%
06/08 consider an early exit!
06/04 new stop loss @ 44.75

chart:

Entry on May 26 at $47.35
Earnings Date 08/08/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 967 thousand
Listed on May 25th, 2011