Editor's Note:
The stock market's end of quarter rally has been exceptional and bears are definitely running for cover. We are seeing several stocks rally through very significant resistance.

Today's session was strong enough to stop us out of ETN, F, HON, IR, and XRX.

-James

Current Portfolio:


BULLISH Play Updates

Cheesecake Factory Inc. - CAKE - close: 31.37 change: -0.08

Stop Loss: 28.95
Target(s): 33.95, 37.00
Current Gain/Loss: - 0.5%
Time Frame: 8 to 10 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
06/30 update: With the stock market's major averages surging higher four days in a row it is disappointing to see CAKE stall and fail near resistance at $32.00. CAKE just failed there again today and looks poised to correct back toward the $31-30 zone. More conservative traders will want to consider an early exit now. If nothing else you may want to free up the cash so you have it available to play something that is actually moving!

I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
Keep in mind that CAKE doesn't move very fast (at least not normally) so we'll need some patience for this trade to work. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for CAKE is bullish with a $59 target.

Current Position: Long CAKE stock @ $31.53

- or -

Long the July $33 call (CAKE1116G33) Entry @ $0.75

06/30 consider the opportunity cost of staying in CAKE. maybe you should exit early
06/28 New stop loss @ 29.65
06/09 CAKE is bouncing from the 200-dma as expected.
06/04 More conservative traders may want to exit early. We are expecting a drop to the 200-dma.

Entry on May 20 at $31.53
Earnings Date 07/21/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.0 million
Listed on May 19th, 2011


Ecolab Inc. - ECL - close: 56.38 change: +1.06

Stop Loss: 53.45
Target(s): 57.00, 59.90
Current Gain/Loss: + 5.6%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
06/30 update: ECL delivered a strong session. Shares rallied 1.9% and broke out to new highs. Our first target is $57.00 but cautious traders may want to take profits now. I am raising our stop loss to $53.45.

Current Position: Long ECL stock @ 53.35

- or -

Long July $55 call (ECL1116G55) Entry @ $0.60

06/30 new stop loss @ 53.45
06/18 new stop loss @ 52.45
06/04 new stop loss @ 51.90

Entry on May 26 at $53.35
Earnings Date 07/26/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.5 million
Listed on May 18th, 2011


Interpublic Group - IPG - close: 12.50 change: +0.32

Stop Loss: 11.25
Target(s): 13.20
Current Gain/Loss: + 2.7%
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
06/30 update: After yesterday's lackluster session IPG was showing some relative strength today. The stock rallied +2.6% and closed at new two-month highs. I probably would not chase it here. Wait for a pull back. Broken resistance at $12.00 should be new support. Readers might want to consider a higher stop loss.

Our plan was to keep our position size small. Our first target is $13.20 near the 2011 highs. FYI: We do not want to hold over the late July earnings report.

- small positions -

Current Position: Long IPG stock @ $12.17

- or -

Long Aug $12.00 call (IPG1120H12) Entry @ $0.85

Entry on June 29 at $12.17
Earnings Date 07/28/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 7.5 million
Listed on June 28, 2011


Macy's Inc. - M - close: 29.24 change: +0.48

Stop Loss: 27.45
Target(s): 29.90, 32.25
Current Gain/Loss: + 3.3%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
06/30 update: Macy's was outperforming its peers in the retail sector on Thursday. The stock rallied +1.6% and closed above short-term resistance at $29.00. I don't see any changes from my prior comments. Readers may want to wait for another dip near $28.00 before launching new positions. We want to keep our M positions small to limit our risk.

- small positions -

Current Position: Long M stock @ $28.30

- or -

(short-term)
Long July $29 call (M1116G29) Entry @ $0.56

- or -

(a bit longer-term)
Long Aug. $30 call (M1120H30) Entry @ $0.85

Entry on June 28 at $28.30
Earnings Date 08/10/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 8.6 million
Listed on June 27, 2011


Nanometrics Inc. - NANO - close: 18.99 change: +0.18

Stop Loss: 16.90
Target(s): 19.25, 22.00
Current Gain/Loss: +12.9%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks or more
New Positions: see below

Comments:
06/30 update: NANO hit some volatility this morning with a spike down to $18.25 but the stock recovered. If you haven't taken any profits yet you will want to do so now. Our final target is $22.00 but the $20.00 level could be significant overhead resistance. Please note our new stop loss at $16.90 I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

FYI: NANO does have options but the spreads are so wide I wouldn't trade them.

Current Position: Long NANO stock @ $16.82

06/30 new stop loss @ 16.90
06/28 First Target hit @ 19.25 (+14.4%)
06/28 New stop loss @ 16.49

Entry on June 13 at $16.82
Earnings Date 08/04/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 467 thousand
Listed on June 11th, 2011


UnitedHealth Group Inc. - UNH - close: 51.58 change: +0.04

Stop Loss: 48.75
Target(s): 54.75
Current Gain/Loss: + 0.6%
Time Frame: 3 to 4 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
06/30 update: Healthcare stocks are some of the best performers in the second quarter and yet the rally has stalled for this group in the last couple of days. The HMO index was negative on Thursday. UNH barely closed in positive territory after churning sideways all day. At this point I'd probably wait for a dip or a new bounce from $50.00 before initiating new positions.

We do not want to hold over the July 19th earnings report.

- small positions -

Suggested Position: Long UNH stock @ $51.25

- or -

Long July $50 call (UNH1116G50) Entry @ $2.07

Entry on June 24 at $51.25
Earnings Date 07/19/11 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 7.9 million
Listed on June 23, 2011


BEARISH Play Updates

Aon Corp. - AON - close: 51.30 change: +0.61

Stop Loss: 52.05
Target(s): 47.00
Current Gain/Loss: + 0.6%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
06/30 update: The oversold bounce in AON this week has erased two weeks worth of losses. The close over resistance at $51.00 is short-term bullish for AON but the rally stalled under its 50-dma. We have a stop at $52.05 but more conservative traders may want to exit early anyway. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

(small positions only)

Current Position: short AON stock @ 51.61

06/18 adjusted exit target to $47.00
06/16 planned exit, June $50 put @ +11.1%
06/16 new stop loss @ 52.05
05/31 New stop loss @ 52.75
05/23 gap down entry @ 51.61

Entry on May 23 at $51.61
Earnings Date 07/29/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.7 million
Listed on May 21st, 2011


Kohl's Corp. - KSS - close: 50.01 change: -0.42

Stop Loss: 51.75
Target(s): 47.50, 45.25
Current Gain/Loss: - 0.4%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
06/30 update: KSS continues to underperform. Shares lost -0.8% versus a +0.5% gain for the RLX retail index and a +1.0% gain for the S&P 500. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

The plan was to keep our position size small to limit our risk. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for KSS is bearish with a $43 target.

- Small Positions-

Current Position: short KSS stock @ $49.80

- or -

Long July $47.50 put (KSS1116S47.5) Entry @ $0.75

Entry on June 13 at $49.80
Earnings Date 08/11/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.1 million
Listed on June 11th, 2011


Marriott Intl. Inc. - MAR - close: 35.49 change: +0.28

Stop Loss: 36.05
Target(s): 33.65, and 30.50
Current Gain/Loss: - 0.2%
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
06/30 update: Thursday ended up being a quiet session for MAR with the stock churning sideways. Shares remain under resistance at $36.00 and our stop at $36.05. I'm not suggesting new positions at this time.

Current Position: Short MAR stock @ $35.39

- or -

Long July $33 PUT (MAR1116S33) Entry @ $0.60

06/21 readers may want to exit July options now
06/18 new stop loss @ 36.05
06/13 1st Target Hit @ $33.65 (+4.9%), Option @ 0.90 (+50%)
06/13 New stop loss @ 36.55
06/11 Adjusted exit targets to $33.65 and 30.50

Entry on June 8 at $35.39
Earnings Date 07/13/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.7 million
Listed on June 7th, 2011


Charles Schwab - SCHW - close: 16.45 change: +0.08

Stop Loss: 16.55
Target(s): 14.00
Current Gain/Loss: unopened
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see trigger

Comments:
06/30 update: SCHW has been stuck under resistance at the $16.50 level for almost four weeks. Yet today shares managed to trade above this level intraday and hit $16.58. If our trade had been opened we would have been stopped out.

Currently the plan is to launch bearish positions at $15.60. We're going to reconsider a new entry point this weekend but we'll likely just remove SCHW as a candidate. The stock has gone nowhere the last four weeks.

Keep our position size small!

Trigger @ 15.60 (small positions)

Suggested Position: short SCHW stock @ $15.60

- or -

Buy the July $15.00 PUT (SCHW1116S15)

Entry on June x at $xx.xx
Earnings Date 07/18/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 10.2 million
Listed on June 13th, 2011


St. Jude Medical - STJ - close: 47.68 change: +0.07

Stop Loss: 50.05
Target(s): 47.00, 45.25
Current Gain/Loss: + 6.5%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
06/30 update: The bounce in STJ is slowing and shares underperformed the market on Thursday. I don't see any changes from my prior comments. The stock looks like it wants to fill the gap, which means rising toward the $48.70 area. I'm not suggesting new positions at this time. More conservative traders may want to exit early now.

Earlier Comments:
We wanted to keep our position size small (about half or less than a normal trade) to limit our risk.

(Small Positions)

Current Position: Short STJ stock @ 51.00

06/25 Adjusted final target to $45.25
06/23 1st target exceeded. Gap down at $46.50 (+8.8%)
06/23 new stop loss @ 50.05
06/16 exit June $50 put @ $1.95 (+95%)
06/15 prepare to exit our June $50 puts on Thursday at the close
06/04 New stop loss @ 51.05, added second target at $45.75
05/23 New stop loss @ 52.26

Entry on May 20 at $51.00
Earnings Date 07/21/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.6 million
Listed on May 16th, 2011


CLOSED BEARISH PLAYS

Eaton Corp. - ETN - close: 51.45 change: +1.30

Stop Loss: 50.50
Target(s): 42.50
Current Gain/Loss: - 6.0%
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
06/30 update: ETN was a sharp outperformer this morning with a surge to $51.71. The breakout past its 50-dma sparked some short covering and ETN hit our stop loss at $50.50 early this morning.

Current Position: short ETN stock @ $47.62, exit $50.50 (-6.0%)

- or -

July $47.50 PUT (ETN1116S47.5) Entry @ $1.40 , exit $0.05 (-96.4%)

- or -

Aug. $45 PUT (ETN1120T45) Entry @ $1.50, exit $0.50 (-66.6%)

06/30 stopped out @ 50.50 (-6.0%), options @ -96.4% & -66.6%
06/28 new stop loss @ 50.50

chart:

Entry on June 23 at $47.62
Earnings Date 07/20/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.8 million
Listed on June 22, 2011


Ford Motor Co. - F - close: 13.79 change: +0.37

Stop Loss: 13.85
Target(s): final target @ 12.55
Current Gain/Loss: + 3.8%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
06/30 update: Ford broke out past resistance near $13.50 and quickly surged to the next level of resistance at $14.00 before paring its gains. Our stop loss was hit at $13.85. The plan was to keep our position size small to limit our risk.

Small Positions!

Current Position: Short F stock @ $14.40, exit 13.85 (+3.8%)

- or -

July $15 PUT (F1116S15) Entry @ $0.90, exit $1.20 (+33.3%)

06/30 stopped out @ 13.85
06/16 new stop loss @ 13.85
06/13 New stop loss @ 14.26. Final target at $12.55
06/13 Take Profits Now! Ford @ 13.14 (+8.75%), Option @ $1.89 (+110%)
06/11 new targets at $12.75 and TBD.
06/11 new stop loss @ 14.55
06/08 new stop loss @ 15.01

chart:

Entry on May 25 at $14.40
Earnings Date 07/21/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 57 million
Listed on May 24th, 2011


Honeywell Intl. - HON - close: 59.59 change: +0.97

Stop Loss: 59.05
Target(s): 54.00
Current Gain/Loss: - 2.4%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
06/30 update: The accelerated oversold bounce in HON continued and shares broke through resistance near $59.00 and its 50-dma. Our stop loss was hit at $59.05.

Earlier Comments:
We do want to keep our position size small to limit our risk.

- Small Positions -

Current Position: short HON stock @ 57.65, exit 59.05 (-2.4%)

- or -

July $55 PUT (HON1116S55) Entry @ $0.75, exit 0.10 (-86.6%)

06/30 stopped out @ 59.05 (-2.4%), option @ -86.6%
06/18 new stop @ 59.05

chart:

Entry on June 2 at $57.65
Earnings Date 07/22/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 4.1 million
Listed on June 1st, 2011


Ingersoll-Rand - IR - close: 45.41 change: +1.49

Stop Loss: 45.25
Target(s): 40.25, 37.50
Current Gain/Loss: - 4.7%
Time Frame: 3 to 5 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
06/30 update: The stock market's powerful rally was enough to push IR up through significant resistance at $45.00 and its simple and exponential 200-dma. Our stop loss was hit at $45.25.

Earlier comments:
NOTE: IR's August options do not have much volume or open interest. Prices could be erratic.

- small positions -

Current Position: short IR stock @ $43.21, exit 45.25 (-4.7%)

- or -

AUG. $40 PUT (IR1120T40) Entry @ $0.90, exit $0.50 (-44.4%)

06/30 stopped out @ 45.25 (-4.7%), option @ -44.4%

chart:

Entry on June 27 at $43.21
Earnings Date 07/25/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.0 million
Listed on June 25, 2011


Xerox Corp. - XRX - close: 10.41 change: +0.16

Stop Loss: 10.40
Target(s): 9.25, 9.00
Current Gain/Loss: - 4.7%
Time Frame: 4 to 5 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
06/30 update: XRX has been trading consistently under a trendline of lower highs since last December! Yet today the market's rally was strong enough to actually push XRX through this major resistance in addition to technical resistance at its 100-dma and its exponential 200-dma. Our stop loss was hit at $10.40.

Our plan was to keep positions sizes small to limit our risk.

- small positions -

Current Position: short XRX stock @ 9.93, exit 10.40 (-4.7%)

- or -

Aug $9.00 PUT (XRX1120T9) Entry @ $0.20, exit 0.07 (-65%)

06/30 stopped out @ $10.40 (-4.7%), option @ -65%

chart:

Entry on June 27 at $ 9.93
Earnings Date 07/21/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 11.7 million
Listed on June 25, 2011