Editor's Note:
The stock market's sharp sell-off on Monday was just enough to hit our trigger for the new WNR trade. Meanwhile CPHD and NANO were stopped out.

-James

Current Portfolio:


BULLISH Play Updates

AMBEV - ABV - close: 32.07 change: -0.98

Stop Loss: 31.65
Target(s): 35.75, 37.75
Current Gain/Loss: - 3.5%
Time Frame: 6 to 9 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/11 update: I am concerned about ABV. The drop to support near $32.00 and the 50-dma is not that surprising, especially with the market's sharp sell-off today. What concerns me is the volume. Volume has been above average for this entire three-day correction lower. This is a bearish signal. I would still be tempted to launch positions here but keep position small. I am raising our stop loss to $31.65, just a few cents under today's low.

Earlier Comments:
My biggest concern is that I can't find an earnings report date for this Brazilian company. If they report earnings and miss or disappoint while we're long the stock it could be very painful. Readers may want to keep their position size small.

Current Position: Long ABV stock @ $33.25

- or -

Long Aug. $34 call (ABV1120H34) entry @ 0.90

07/11 new stop loss @ 31.65

Entry on July 8 at $33.25
Earnings Date --/--/-- (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.0 million
Listed on July 5, 2011


American Express Co. - AXP - close: 52.27 change: -0.80

Stop Loss: 50.90
Target(s): 54.95
Current Gain/Loss: unopened
Time Frame: up to its earnings report
New Positions: Yes, see trigger

Comments:
07/11 update: The profit taking in AXP was relatively mild. We are still waiting for a dip to $52.00, which is our trigger to launch bullish positions. Cautious traders could wait for a dip closer to the $51-50 area instead. Keep in mind that this trade may not get very far. We only have about seven trading days left since we do not want to hold over the earnings report. Please note the new stop loss at $50.90.

Trigger @ 52.00

Suggested Position: buy AXP stock @ 52.00

- or -

buy the Aug. $52.50 call (AXP1120H52.5)

07/11 new stop loss @ 50.90

Entry on July x at $xx.xx
Earnings Date 07/20/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 7.0 million
Listed on July 2, 2011


Cheesecake Factory Inc. - CAKE - close: 33.02 change: -0.48

Stop Loss: 31.90
Target(s): 33.60, 37.00
Current Gain/Loss: + 4.7%
Time Frame: 8 to 10 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/11 update: CAKE is also showing some resiliency. The stock only gave up -1.4%. There is still a good chance CAKE will correct toward $32.00. I am not suggesting new positions at this time. We do not want to hold over the July 20th earnings report.

Current Position: Long CAKE stock @ $31.53

- or -

July $33 call (CAKE1116G33) Entry @ $0.75, exit 0.80 (+6.6%)

07/09 new stop loss @ 31.90
07/07 Target hit @ 33.60. CAKE +6.5%, option @ $0.80 (+6.6%)
07/05 adjusted 1st target to $33.60
07/02 new stop loss @ 30.75
06/30 consider the opportunity cost of staying in CAKE. maybe you should exit early
06/28 New stop loss @ 29.65
06/09 CAKE is bouncing from the 200-dma as expected.
06/04 More conservative traders may want to exit early. We are expecting a drop to the 200-dma.

Entry on May 20 at $31.53
Earnings Date 07/20/11 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.0 million
Listed on May 19th, 2011


Dr. Pepper Snapple - DPS - close: 41.26 change: -0.66

Stop Loss: 39.90
Target(s): 46.00
Current Gain/Loss: - 1.0%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/11 update: DPS gave up -1.5%. Shares are nearing support near $41 and its 30 and 50-dma. I would take advantage of today's decline and launch new bullish positions here. Conservative traders could still wait for a dip near $40.00 instead. Normally I would avoid holding over earnings but I am tempted to hold over DPS' late July earnings report. Our multi-week target is $46.00.

Current Position: Long DPS stock @ $41.71

- or -

Long Aug. $45 call (DPS1120H45) Entry @ $0.30

Entry on July 11 at $41.71
Earnings Date 07/28/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.8 million
Listed on June 30, 2011


Ecolab Inc. - ECL - close: 56.00 change: -0.50

Stop Loss: 53.90
Target(s): --.--, 59.90
Current Gain/Loss: + 4.9%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/11 update: ECL held up very well today. Shares lost less than 1% and hovered near the $56.00 level most of the session. I am almost tempted to raise our stop loss closer to the $55 level. Personally I would look for a dip or a bounce near $55.00 before considering new positions.

Current Position: Long ECL stock @ 53.35

- or -

July $55 call (ECL1116G55) Entry @ $0.60, exit $1.45 (+141.6%)

07/09 new stop loss @ 53.90
07/08 planned exit. July $55 call @ $1.45 (+141.6%)
07/07 Plan on exiting our July calls tomorrow at the close
07/02 Sell half. ECL @ 56.76 (+6.3%), Option @ $1.75 (+191.6%)
06/30 new stop loss @ 53.45
06/18 new stop loss @ 52.45
06/04 new stop loss @ 51.90

Entry on May 26 at $53.35
Earnings Date 07/26/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.5 million
Listed on May 18th, 2011


Interpublic Group - IPG - close: 12.36 change: -0.36

Stop Loss: 12.20
Target(s): 13.20
Current Gain/Loss: + 1.5%
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/11 update: Ouch! IPG gapped open lower and dipped to $12.32 intraday. The close under $12.50 and its 10-dma is short-term bearish. There is a pretty good chance that if stocks continue to sink tomorrow that IPG will make a run at the $12.00 level. We have a stop at $12.20.

Our plan was to keep our position size small. Our target is $13.20 near the 2011 highs. FYI: We do not want to hold over the late July earnings report.

- small positions -

Current Position: Long IPG stock @ $12.17

- or -

Long Aug $12.00 call (IPG1120H12) Entry @ $0.85

07/09 new stop loss @ 12.20
07/02 new stop loss @ 11.49

Entry on June 29 at $12.17
Earnings Date 07/28/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 7.5 million
Listed on June 28, 2011


Kaiser Aluminum - KALU - close: 53.10 change: -1.28

Stop Loss: 51.90
Target(s): 59.75
Current Gain/Loss: - 0.8%
Time Frame: 3 to 5 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/11 update: The stock market's widespread sell-off on Monday was unexpected but it has a side effect. That is a better entry point on KALU. Shares opened lower at $53.56 and are now trading inside the $54-52 range. KALU now has short-term resistance at $54.00 and support near $52.00. I would take advantage of this dip and launch new positions here. We have a stop at $51.90.

Earlier Comments:
Our target is the $59.75 mark since the $60 level looks like resistance. Investors could certainly aim higher. KALU has a high amount of short interest and the stock could experience a short squeeze. We do not want to hold over the early August earnings report but the date is not yet confirmed. FYI: Investors should note that the most recent data listed short interest at 9.9% of the very small 18.5 million share float.

- Small Positions -

Current Position: Long KALU @ $53.56

- or -

Long AUG $55 call (KALU1120H55) Entry @ $1.30

Entry on July 11 at $53.56
Earnings Date 08/01/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 183 thousand
Listed on July 9, 2011


KLA-Tencor - KLAC - close: 42.29 change: +0.04

Stop Loss: 39.95
Target(s): 45.75
Current Gain/Loss: - 0.4%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/11 update: KLAC managed to buck the down trend today thanks to an upgrade from "sell" to "hold" by Citigroup this morning. The stock opened at $42.49 and surged to resistance near $44 and its 100-dma before reversing course and succumbing to profit taking. On a very short-term basis this is technically a failed rally pattern. Bigger picture little has changed. I would still consider new positions now or you could wait for a dip near $41 or the 200-dma as an alternative entry point. We're aiming for a move to $45.75. Aggressive traders could aim higher but we do not want to hold over the late July earnings report.

Current Position: Long KLAC @ $42.49

- or -

Long AUG $45 call (KLAC1120H45) Entry @ $1.20

Entry on July 11 at $42.49
Earnings Date 07/28/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.4 million
Listed on July 9, 2011


Macy's Inc. - M - close: 29.60 change: -0.82

Stop Loss: 28.49
Target(s): 29.90, 32.25
Current Gain/Loss: + 4.5%
2nd Position Gain/Loss: - 0.8% Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/11 update: Macy's gave back almost 2.7% today. Shares managed to find some support at its 10-dma but the close under $30.00 is short-term bearish. Readers may want to wait for a dip or a bounce near the $29.00 level before launching new positions.

At the moment our final target is $32.25 but we might consider adjusting this target higher.

Earlier Comments:
Our plan was to keep positions small to limit our risk.

- small positions -

Current Position: Long M stock @ $28.30

- or -

Long Aug. $30 call (M1120H30) Entry @ $0.85

- 2nd Position, entry 7/11/11 -

suggested position: Long M stock @ $29.86

Long Aug. $32 call (M1120H32) Entry @ $0.63

07/09 new stop loss @ 28.49
07/09 Add 2nd position, buy stock/calls now
07/08 Planned exit. July $29 call @ $1.50 (+167.8%)
07/07 plan on exiting July calls tomorrow at the close
07/02 new stop loss @ 27.90
07/01 1st Target Hit @ 29.90 (+5.6%), options @ +107.1% (July) & +52.9% (Aug)

Entry on June 28 at $28.30
Earnings Date 08/10/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 8.6 million
Listed on June 27, 2011


Marsh & McLennan Companies - MMC - close: 30.49 change: -0.76

Stop Loss: 30.39
Target(s): 34.00
Current Gain/Loss: - 1.1%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/11 update: Wow! It doesn't get any closer than this. Over the weekend I suggested launch new positions on MMC's bounce from the $31.00 level with a stop at $30.45. Shares opened at $30.875 and then plunged toward short-term support near $30.50 and spent most of the day there. The intraday low today was $30.46. Our stop loss happens to be $30.45. I am going to adjust that down to $30.39. At this point I'd wait for a bounce in MMC before initiating new positions.

Our target is $34.00 but that might be a little optimistic. MMC does not move super fast. We do not want to hold over the early August earnings report.

Current Position: Long MMC stock @ $30.85

- or -

Long Aug. $32 call (MMC1120H32) current ask $0.45

07/11 new stop loss @ 30.39
07/09 adjusted strategy. Buy MMC now, new stop loss @ 30.45, small positions only.

Entry on July 11 at $xx.xx
Earnings Date 08/03/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 3.4 million
Listed on July 2, 2011


UnitedHealth Group Inc. - UNH - close: 50.94 change: -1.14

Stop Loss: 49.85
Target(s): 54.75
Current Gain/Loss: - 0.6%
Time Frame: 3 to 4 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/11 update: I have been suggesting that readers look for a dip or a bounce in the $51.00-50.00 zone as our next entry point. Well, we got the dip today. Cautious traders may want to wait for a bounce near $50 first before initiating new positions. Keep in mind that we don't have a lot of time left. We do not want to hold over the July 19th earnings report.

- small positions -

Suggested Position: Long UNH stock @ $51.25

- or -

Long July $50 call (UNH1116G50) Entry @ $2.07

07/02 new stop loss @ 49.85

Entry on June 24 at $51.25
Earnings Date 07/19/11 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 7.9 million
Listed on June 23, 2011


Western Refining Inc. - WNR - close: 19.56 change: -1.05

Stop Loss: 18.45
Target(s): 24.00, 27.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 0.3%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/11 update: Good news! WNR's -5% decline on Monday was enough to hit our buy-the-dip trigger at $19.50. The play is now open with a stop loss at $18.45. Aggressive traders may want to put their stop under support near the $18.00 level instead.

FYI: The Point & Figure chart for WNR is bullish with a $28.50 target. Plus, the most recent data listed short interest at 38% of the 54.2 million-share float.

Current Position: Long WNR stock @ 19.50

- or -

Long AUG. $22 call (WNR1120H22) Entry @ $0.65

chart:

Entry on July 11 at $19.50
Earnings Date 08/04/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.0 million
Listed on July 9, 2011


BEARISH Play Updates

St. Jude Medical - STJ - close: 46.38 change: -1.11

Stop Loss: 48.75
Target(s): 47.00, 46.10
Current Gain/Loss: + 9.0%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/11 update: STJ gapped open lower at $46.90 and closed on its lows with a -2.3% decline. Our exit target is $46.10. Cautious traders may want to exit now instead. Aggressive traders could certainly aim lower but I'm concerned the simple 200-dma might be support. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
We wanted to keep our position size small (about half or less than a normal trade) to limit our risk.

(Small Positions)

Current Position: Short STJ stock @ 51.00

07/09 new stop loss @ 48.75, adjust final target to $46.10
07/01 STJ has filled the gap just as expected
06/25 Adjusted final target to $45.25
06/23 1st target exceeded. Gap down at $46.50 (+8.8%)
06/23 new stop loss @ 50.05
06/16 exit June $50 put @ $1.95 (+95%)
06/15 prepare to exit our June $50 puts on Thursday at the close
06/04 New stop loss @ 51.05, added second target at $45.75
05/23 New stop loss @ 52.26

Entry on May 20 at $51.00
Earnings Date 07/21/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 2.6 million
Listed on May 16th, 2011


CLOSED BULLISH PLAYS

Cepheid - CPHD - close: 32.02 change: -0.38

Stop Loss: 31.85
Target(s): 33.00
Current Gain/Loss: - 3.4%
Time Frame: 3 to 5 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/11 update: Selling pressure in CPHD was pretty minor with a -1.1% decline at the close. However, the stock did drop under technical support at its 50-dma and slip to $31.40 this morning. Our stop loss was hit at $31.85. I would keep CPHD on your watch list. The long-term up trend is on the verge of getting broken. A rebound back above $33.00 might be a new entry point for bullish trades.

Earlier Comments:
Readers may want to avoid the call options. The spreads are wide.

closed Position: Long CPHD stock @ $33.00, exit 31.85 (-3.4%)

- or -

AUG $35 call (CPHD1120H35) entry @ $1.45, exit $0.60 (-58.6%)

07/11 CPHD broke support and hit our stop loss @ 31.85.

chart:

Entry on July 7 at $33.00
Earnings Date 07/21/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 484 thousand
Listed on July 6, 2011


Nanometrics Inc. - NANO - close: 19.66 change: -0.75

Stop Loss: 19.45
Target(s): 19.25, 22.00
Current Gain/Loss: +15.6%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks or more
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/11 update: It was the worst one-day loss for the markets in over a month. NANO could not hold support at $20.00 or the 10-dma. Shares hit our new stop loss at $19.45.

closed Position: Long NANO stock @ $16.82, exit 19.45 (+15.6%)

07/11 stopped out @ 19.45 (+15.6%)
07/09 new stop loss @ 19.45
07/05 new stop loss @ 17.65
07/02 new stop loss @ 17.45. Consider an early exit right here @ $20.00
06/30 new stop loss @ 16.90
06/28 First Target hit @ 19.25 (+14.4%)
06/28 New stop loss @ 16.49

chart:

Entry on June 13 at $16.82
Earnings Date 08/04/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 467 thousand
Listed on June 11th, 2011