Editor's Note:
Energy stocks and commodity-related names performed well thanks to strong economic data out of China and a weak dollar.

The afternoon sell-off in stocks is worrisome. Tomorrow's market action will probably be determined by investor interpretation of JPM's earnings report Thursday morning.

-James

Current Portfolio:


BULLISH Play Updates

Alexion Pharma - ALXN - close: 51.25 change: +0.84

Stop Loss: 47.75
Target(s): 52.25
Current Gain/Loss: unopened
Time Frame: up to its earnings report
New Positions: Yes, see trigger

Comments:
07/13 update: ALXN continues to show relative strength and shares posted a +1.6% gain. Yet I suspect ALXN just ran out of gas. The rally surged toward resistance at its April highs only to reverse. We will keep our buy the dip entry point at $49.00. More conservative traders could wait for a dip closer to $48.00. We don't have much time. Earnings are expected on July 21st and we do not want to hold over the announcement. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for ALXN is bullish with a $63 target.

Trigger @ $49.00

Suggested Position: buy ALXN @ $49.00

- or -

buy the AUG $50 call (ALXN1120H50)

Entry on July xx at $ xx.xx
Earnings Date 07/21/11 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.1 million
Listed on July 11, 2011


American Express Co. - AXP - close: 51.95 change: -0.45

Stop Loss: 49.85
Target(s): 54.95
Current Gain/Loss: unopened
Time Frame: up to its earnings report
New Positions: Yes, see trigger

Comments:
07/13 update: AXP under performed today. Shares bounced around the $52-53 zone before eventually breaking down under the $52 level. The low today was $51.88. This under performance is somewhat concerning. I am lowering our buy-the-dip entry point to $51.00 and our stop to $49.85.

Remember we only have a few days for AXP to dip to our entry point and then bounce before earnings.

Trigger @ 51.00

Suggested Position: buy AXP stock @ 51.00

- or -

buy the Aug. $52.50 call (AXP1120H52.5)

07/13 AXP is underperforming. New trigger @ 51.00, stop @ 49.85
07/12 new trigger @ 51.75
07/11 new stop loss @ 50.90

Entry on July x at $xx.xx
Earnings Date 07/20/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 7.0 million
Listed on July 2, 2011


Cheesecake Factory Inc. - CAKE - close: 33.42 change: +0.69

Stop Loss: 31.90
Target(s): 33.60, 37.00
Current Gain/Loss: + 5.9%
Time Frame: 8 to 10 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/13 update: Shares of CAKE displayed relative strength with a +2.1% gain. The stock did not see the same afternoon sell-off so common in the market today. I am still not suggesting new positions. We do not want to hold over the July 20th earnings report.

Current Position: Long CAKE stock @ $31.53

- or -

July $33 call (CAKE1116G33) Entry @ $0.75, exit 0.80 (+6.6%)

07/09 new stop loss @ 31.90
07/07 Target hit @ 33.60. CAKE +6.5%, option @ $0.80 (+6.6%)
07/05 adjusted 1st target to $33.60
07/02 new stop loss @ 30.75
06/30 consider the opportunity cost of staying in CAKE. maybe you should exit early
06/28 New stop loss @ 29.65
06/09 CAKE is bouncing from the 200-dma as expected.
06/04 More conservative traders may want to exit early. We are expecting a drop to the 200-dma.

Entry on May 20 at $31.53
Earnings Date 07/20/11 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.0 million
Listed on May 19th, 2011


Dr. Pepper Snapple - DPS - close: 41.47 change: +0.01

Stop Loss: 39.90
Target(s): 46.00
Current Gain/Loss: - 0.6%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/13 update: It turned out to be a quiet day for DPS. The stock did not see as much volatility as the rest of the market. I will note that the MACD indicator on the daily chart has turned bearish. I'd look for a dip near $41.00 as our next entry point. Normally I would avoid holding over earnings but I am tempted to hold over DPS' late July earnings report. Our multi-week target is $46.00.

Current Position: Long DPS stock @ $41.71

- or -

Long Aug. $45 call (DPS1120H45) Entry @ $0.30

Entry on July 11 at $41.71
Earnings Date 07/28/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.8 million
Listed on June 30, 2011


Ecolab Inc. - ECL - close: 56.08 change: +0.28

Stop Loss: 53.90
Target(s): --.--, 59.90
Current Gain/Loss: + 5.1%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/13 update: The early morning rally in ECL began to fade pretty quickly. I do not see any changes from my prior comments. I would still expect a dip toward support near $55 and possibly $54.

Current Position: Long ECL stock @ 53.35

- or -

July $55 call (ECL1116G55) Entry @ $0.60, exit $1.45 (+141.6%)

07/09 new stop loss @ 53.90
07/08 planned exit. July $55 call @ $1.45 (+141.6%)
07/07 Plan on exiting our July calls tomorrow at the close
07/02 Sell half. ECL @ 56.76 (+6.3%), Option @ $1.75 (+191.6%)
06/30 new stop loss @ 53.45
06/18 new stop loss @ 52.45
06/04 new stop loss @ 51.90

Entry on May 26 at $53.35
Earnings Date 07/26/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.5 million
Listed on May 18th, 2011


Kaiser Aluminum - KALU - close: 54.83 change: +1.72

Stop Loss: 51.90
Target(s): 59.75
Current Gain/Loss: + 2.3%
Time Frame: 3 to 5 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/13 update: Resources and commodity-related names were showing relative strength. Strong economic data out of China and weakness in the dollar both played a part in this rally. Shares of KALU outperformed with a +3.2% gain.

Earlier Comments:
Our target is the $59.75 mark since the $60 level looks like resistance. Investors could certainly aim higher. KALU has a high amount of short interest and the stock could experience a short squeeze. We do not want to hold over the early August earnings report but the date is not yet confirmed. FYI: Investors should note that the most recent data listed short interest at 9.9% of the very small 18.5 million share float.

- Small Positions -

Current Position: Long KALU @ $53.56

- or -

Long AUG $55 call (KALU1120H55) Entry @ $1.30

Entry on July 11 at $53.56
Earnings Date 08/01/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 183 thousand
Listed on July 9, 2011


KLA-Tencor - KLAC - close: 41.31 change: -0.98

Stop Loss: 39.95
Target(s): 45.75
Current Gain/Loss: - 2.0%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/13 update: Semiconductor stocks are still struggling. The bounce in the SOX index failed at the 400 level and the SOX closed in the red. Meanwhile KLAC outperformed its peers and closed back above technical resistance at its 50-dma and the 200-dma. I remain cautious here.

We do not want to hold over the late July earnings report.

Current Position: Long KLAC @ $42.49

- or -

Long AUG $45 call (KLAC1120H45) Entry @ $1.20

Entry on July 11 at $42.49
Earnings Date 07/28/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.4 million
Listed on July 9, 2011


Macy's Inc. - M - close: 29.82 change: +0.16

Stop Loss: 28.49
Target(s): 29.90, 32.25
Current Gain/Loss: + 5.3%
2nd Position Gain/Loss: - 0.1% Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/13 update: Macy's is still holding up pretty well in spite of the market's weakness. I remain cautious on launching new positions though.

At the moment our final target is $32.25 but we might consider adjusting this target higher.

Earlier Comments:
Our plan was to keep positions small to limit our risk.

- small positions -

Current Position: Long M stock @ $28.30

- or -

Long Aug. $30 call (M1120H30) Entry @ $0.85

- 2nd Position, entry 7/11/11 -

suggested position: Long M stock @ $29.86

Long Aug. $32 call (M1120H32) Entry @ $0.63

07/09 new stop loss @ 28.49
07/09 Add 2nd position, buy stock/calls now
07/08 Planned exit. July $29 call @ $1.50 (+167.8%)
07/07 plan on exiting July calls tomorrow at the close
07/02 new stop loss @ 27.90
07/01 1st Target Hit @ 29.90 (+5.6%), options @ +107.1% (July) & +52.9% (Aug)

Entry on June 28 at $28.30
Earnings Date 08/10/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 8.6 million
Listed on June 27, 2011


UnitedHealth Group Inc. - UNH - close: 51.73 change: +0.32

Stop Loss: 49.85
Target(s): 54.75
Current Gain/Loss: + 0.9%
Time Frame: 3 to 4 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/13 update: The action in UNH looks like a mirror for the markets. I am still expecting a dip toward $50.00. Keep in mind that we don't have a lot of time left. We do not want to hold over the July 19th earnings report.

- small positions -

Suggested Position: Long UNH stock @ $51.25

- or -

Long July $50 call (UNH1116G50) Entry @ $2.07

07/02 new stop loss @ 49.85

Entry on June 24 at $51.25
Earnings Date 07/19/11 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 7.9 million
Listed on June 23, 2011


Western Refining Inc. - WNR - close: 19.83 change: +0.29

Stop Loss: 18.45
Target(s): 24.00, 27.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 1.6%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/13 update: Energy and commodity names were strong today. WNR briefly traded above $20 again. Shares eventually settled with a +1.4% gain. If you are looking for a new entry point consider waiting for a dip near the simple 10-dma. Aggressive traders may want to put their stop under support near the $18.00 level instead.

FYI: The Point & Figure chart for WNR is bullish with a $28.50 target. Plus, the most recent data listed short interest at 38% of the 54.2 million-share float.

Current Position: Long WNR stock @ 19.50

- or -

Long AUG. $22 call (WNR1120H22) Entry @ $0.65

Entry on July 11 at $19.50
Earnings Date 08/04/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.0 million
Listed on July 9, 2011