Editor's Note:
Strong earnings results from JPM were not enough to keep the rally going and stocks rolled over.

-James

Current Portfolio:


BULLISH Play Updates

Alexion Pharma - ALXN - close: 51.27 change: +0.02

Stop Loss: 47.75
Target(s): 52.25
Current Gain/Loss: unopened
Time Frame: up to its earnings report
New Positions: Yes, see trigger

Comments:
07/14 update: ALXN did not see a lot of movement today. The stock traded sideways between $50.50 and $51.50. Shares still look overbought here and trading under resistance near $52.50. We will keep our buy the dip entry point at $49.00. More conservative traders could wait for a dip closer to $48.00. We don't have much time. Earnings are expected on July 21st and we do not want to hold over the announcement. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for ALXN is bullish with a $63 target.

Trigger @ $49.00

Suggested Position: buy ALXN @ $49.00

- or -

buy the AUG $50 call (ALXN1120H50)

Entry on July xx at $ xx.xx
Earnings Date 07/21/11 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.1 million
Listed on July 11, 2011


American Express Co. - AXP - close: 51.38 change: -0.57

Stop Loss: 49.85
Target(s): 54.95
Current Gain/Loss: unopened
Time Frame: up to its earnings report
New Positions: Yes, see trigger

Comments:
07/14 update: AXP is correcting lower as we expected. The low today was $51.30. I am suggesting a buy-the-dip entry point at $51.00, which AXP could hit tomorrow. More conservative traders could wait for a dip closer to the $50.00 mark instead. We have a stop at $49.85.

Remember we only have a few days for AXP to dip to our entry point and then bounce before earnings.

Trigger @ 51.00

Suggested Position: buy AXP stock @ 51.00

- or -

buy the Aug. $52.50 call (AXP1120H52.5)

07/13 AXP is underperforming. New trigger @ 51.00, stop @ 49.85
07/12 new trigger @ 51.75
07/11 new stop loss @ 50.90

Entry on July x at $xx.xx
Earnings Date 07/20/11 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 7.0 million
Listed on July 2, 2011


Cheesecake Factory Inc. - CAKE - close: 32.70 change: -0.72

Stop Loss: 31.90
Target(s): 33.60, 37.00
Current Gain/Loss: + 3.7%
Time Frame: 8 to 10 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/14 update: After yesterday's relative strength the stock was underperforming today. CAKE gave back its gains and closed down -2.1%. There is no change from my earlier comments. CAKE looks poised to dip toward $32.00. More conservative traders may want to exit early. I am not suggesting new positions. We do not want to hold over the July 20th earnings report.

Current Position: Long CAKE stock @ $31.53

- or -

July $33 call (CAKE1116G33) Entry @ $0.75, exit 0.80 (+6.6%)

07/09 new stop loss @ 31.90
07/07 Target hit @ 33.60. CAKE +6.5%, option @ $0.80 (+6.6%)
07/05 adjusted 1st target to $33.60
07/02 new stop loss @ 30.75
06/30 consider the opportunity cost of staying in CAKE. maybe you should exit early
06/28 New stop loss @ 29.65
06/09 CAKE is bouncing from the 200-dma as expected.
06/04 More conservative traders may want to exit early. We are expecting a drop to the 200-dma.

Entry on May 20 at $31.53
Earnings Date 07/20/11 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.0 million
Listed on May 19th, 2011


Dr. Pepper Snapple - DPS - close: 40.87 change: -0.60

Stop Loss: 39.90
Target(s): 46.00
Current Gain/Loss: - 2.0%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/14 update: Hmm.... DPS has broken down under what should have been support near $41.00 and its 50-dma. Odds are the stock will now correct lower to the $40.00 level. We have a stop at $39.90. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
Normally I would avoid holding over earnings but I am tempted to hold over DPS' late July earnings report. Our multi-week target is $46.00.

Current Position: Long DPS stock @ $41.71

- or -

Long Aug. $45 call (DPS1120H45) Entry @ $0.30

Entry on July 11 at $41.71
Earnings Date 07/28/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.8 million
Listed on June 30, 2011


Ecolab Inc. - ECL - close: 55.48 change: -0.60

Stop Loss: 53.90
Target(s): --.--, 59.90
Current Gain/Loss: + 3.9%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/14 update: I have been warning readers to expect a dip toward $55.00 or possibly the $54.00 level in ECL. Shares gave up another -1% and will probably test these levels soon. Wait for a bounce before considering new positions. We do not want to hold bullish positions over the late July earnings report.

Current Position: Long ECL stock @ 53.35

07/09 new stop loss @ 53.90
07/08 planned exit. July $55 call @ $1.45 (+141.6%)
07/07 Plan on exiting our July calls tomorrow at the close
07/02 Sell half. ECL @ 56.76 (+6.3%), Option @ $1.75 (+191.6%)
06/30 new stop loss @ 53.45
06/18 new stop loss @ 52.45
06/04 new stop loss @ 51.90

Entry on May 26 at $53.35
Earnings Date 07/26/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 1.5 million
Listed on May 18th, 2011


Globe Specialty Metals, Inc. - GSM - close: 24.37 change: -0.53

Stop Loss: 23.40
Target(s): 27.25, 29.50
Current Gain/Loss: - 3.2%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/14 update: Our aggressive trade on GSM is not off to a very good start. Last night I said do not buy this stock unless the S&P 500 is positive this morning. The market was positive thanks to strong earnings from JPM but the rally in stocks reversed. GSM opened higher at $25.18 and rallied toward yesterday's highs before reversing course. Shares eventually gave up -2.1% for the day.

At this point I would wait for a bounce in the $24.00-23.50 zone before initiating new positions. We have a stop at $23.40. The plan was to keep our positions small to limit our risk.

Earlier Comments:
We should consider this an aggressive, higher-risk trade so let's keep our position size small to limit risk. We can always add to positions down the road. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for GSM is bullish with a $28.50 target.

- SMALL positions -

Current Position: Long GMS stock @ $25.18

- or -

Long AUG $25 call (GSM1120H25) Entry @ $1.60

Entry on July 14 at $25.18
Earnings Date 09/15/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 874 thousand
Listed on July 13, 2011


Kaiser Aluminum - KALU - close: 54.47 change: -0.36

Stop Loss: 51.90
Target(s): 59.75
Current Gain/Loss: + 1.7%
Time Frame: 3 to 5 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/14 update: KALU weathered today's session pretty well. The stock consolidated sideways most of the day and settled with a -0.6% decline. I would wait for another dip or a bounce in the $53-52 zone again before launching new positions.

Earlier Comments:
Our target is the $59.75 mark since the $60 level looks like resistance. Investors could certainly aim higher. KALU has a high amount of short interest and the stock could experience a short squeeze. We do not want to hold over the early August earnings report but the date is not yet confirmed. FYI: Investors should note that the most recent data listed short interest at 9.9% of the very small 18.5 million share float.

- Small Positions -

Current Position: Long KALU @ $53.56

- or -

Long AUG $55 call (KALU1120H55) Entry @ $1.30

Entry on July 11 at $53.56
Earnings Date 08/01/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 183 thousand
Listed on July 9, 2011


KLA-Tencor - KLAC - close: 40.75 change: -0.88

Stop Loss: 39.95
Target(s): 45.75
Current Gain/Loss: - 4.1%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/14 update: Cautious traders may want to exit our KLAC play right here! The rally this morning failed under the $42.50 level and KLAC plunged -2.1% to close back under its 50 and 200-dma. There is still a chance KLAC will hold support at $40.00 but I am not suggesting new bullish positions at this time.

We do not want to hold over the late July earnings report.

Current Position: Long KLAC @ $42.49

- or -

Long AUG $45 call (KLAC1120H45) Entry @ $1.20

07/14 Traders may want to exit early here.

Entry on July 11 at $42.49
Earnings Date 07/28/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.4 million
Listed on July 9, 2011


Macy's Inc. - M - close: 30.06 change: +0.24

Stop Loss: 28.49
Target(s): 29.90, 32.25
Current Gain/Loss: + 6.2%
2nd Position Gain/Loss: + 0.6% Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/14 update: Macy's rallied off its intraday lows to close in positive territory. I will point out that the MACD on the daily chart has a lower high and is edging closer to a new sell signal in spite of M's up trend. I am not suggesting new positions at this time. At the moment our final target is $32.25 but we might consider adjusting this target higher.

Earlier Comments:
Our plan was to keep positions small to limit our risk.

- small positions -

Current Position: Long M stock @ $28.30

- or -

Long Aug. $30 call (M1120H30) Entry @ $0.85

- 2nd Position, entry 7/11/11 -

suggested position: Long M stock @ $29.86

Long Aug. $32 call (M1120H32) Entry @ $0.63

07/09 new stop loss @ 28.49
07/09 Add 2nd position, buy stock/calls now
07/08 Planned exit. July $29 call @ $1.50 (+167.8%)
07/07 plan on exiting July calls tomorrow at the close
07/02 new stop loss @ 27.90
07/01 1st Target Hit @ 29.90 (+5.6%), options @ +107.1% (July) & +52.9% (Aug)

Entry on June 28 at $28.30
Earnings Date 08/10/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 8.6 million
Listed on June 27, 2011


UnitedHealth Group Inc. - UNH - close: 52.27 change: +0.54

Stop Loss: 49.85
Target(s): 54.75
Current Gain/Loss: + 1.9%
Time Frame: 3 to 4 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/14 update: UNH outperformed with a +1% gain. The stock could have see money inflows as a safe haven trade with the market looking vulnerable. I am not suggesting new positions at this time. We do not want to hold over the July 19th earnings report.

- small positions -

Suggested Position: Long UNH stock @ $51.25

- or -

Long July $50 call (UNH1116G50) Entry @ $2.07

07/02 new stop loss @ 49.85

Entry on June 24 at $51.25
Earnings Date 07/19/11 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 7.9 million
Listed on June 23, 2011


Western Refining Inc. - WNR - close: 20.09 change: +0.26

Stop Loss: 18.45
Target(s): 24.00, 27.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 3.0%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/14 update: Oil and energy stocks were mixed on Thursday but WNR outperformed again with a +1.3% gain. I would prefer to launch new positions on a dip near the simple 10-dma. Aggressive traders may want to put their stop under support near the $18.00 level instead.

FYI: The Point & Figure chart for WNR is bullish with a $28.50 target. Plus, the most recent data listed short interest at 38% of the 54.2 million-share float.

Current Position: Long WNR stock @ 19.50

- or -

Long AUG. $22 call (WNR1120H22) Entry @ $0.65

Entry on July 11 at $19.50
Earnings Date 08/04/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.0 million
Listed on July 9, 2011