Editor's Note:
This could be a rocky week for stocks if we don't see a debt ceiling deal. Readers may want to take profits early in our CROX, KALU, M, and WNR trades.

I want to remind you that more than one of our candidates are due to report earnings this week. We do not want to hold over the announcement. Prepare to exit soon.

-James

Current Portfolio:


BULLISH Play Updates

CROCS Inc. - CROX - close: 28.24 change: +1.32

Stop Loss: 26.45
Target(s): 29.90, 31.75
Current Gain/Loss: + 3.4%
Time Frame: up to its earnings report
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/23 update: Wow! What a difference a day can make. Or should I saw what a difference an upgrade can make! CROX was upgraded on Friday morning and shares rallied to a new multi-year high by Friday afternoon at $28.55. CROX settled with a +4.9% gain. I need to warn you that our time frame has changed. Instead of earnings in August the earnings report is now expected on July 27th. This gives us just three days left since we plan to exit ahead of the earnings announcement. I am raising our stop loss to $26.45.

Earlier Comments:
There is a chance CROX could see a lot more short covering with shares nearing new multi-year highs. The most recent data listed short interest at 12.6% of the 83.9 million-share float. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for CROX is bullish with a $52.50 target.

Suggested Position: Long CROX stock @ $27.31

- or -

Long AUG $28 call (CROX1120H28) Entry @ $1.15

07/23 new stop loss @ 26.45.
07/23 Prepare to exit prior to earnings on July 27th.

chart:

Entry on July 20 at $27.31
Earnings Date 07/27/11 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.1 million
Listed on July 19, 2011


Globe Specialty Metals, Inc. - GSM - close: 24.85 change: +0.19

Stop Loss: 23.80
Target(s): 27.25, 29.50
Current Gain/Loss: - 1.3%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/23 update: Unfortunately nothing has changed for us with GSM. The stock has spent the last four days inside the $24.30-25.00 range. I would buy the stock or calls on a breakout past $25.00. More conservative traders may want to raise their stop loss toward the $24.25 area. The plan was to keep our positions small to limit our risk.

Earlier Comments:
We should consider this an aggressive, higher-risk trade so let's keep our position size small to limit risk. We can always add to positions down the road. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for GSM is bullish with a $28.50 target.

- SMALL positions -

Current Position: Long GMS stock @ $25.18

- or -

Long AUG $25 call (GSM1120H25) Entry @ $1.60

07/20 New stop loss @ 23.80

chart:

Entry on July 14 at $25.18
Earnings Date 09/15/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 874 thousand
Listed on July 13, 2011


Kaiser Aluminum - KALU - close: 56.00 change: -0.30

Stop Loss: 53.75
Target(s): 59.75
Current Gain/Loss: + 4.5%
Time Frame: 3 to 5 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/23 update: KALU tagged a new two-year high on an intraday basis. The stock pared its gains by the closing bell. We only have three days left. Earnings are due on July 27th after the closing bell. We'll plan on exiting that day at the close to avoid holding over the announcement. given our time frame I am raising our stop loss up to $53.75.

Earlier Comments:
Our target is the $59.75 mark since the $60 level looks like resistance. Investors could certainly aim higher. KALU has a high amount of short interest and the stock could experience a short squeeze. FYI: Investors should note that the most recent data listed short interest at 9.9% of the very small 18.5 million share float.

- Small Positions -

Current Position: Long KALU @ $53.56

- or -

Long AUG $55 call (KALU1120H55) Entry @ $1.30

07/23 new stop loss @ 53.75
07/23 Prepare to exit on July 27 at the close
07/20 New stop loss @ 52.49

chart:

Entry on July 11 at $53.56
Earnings Date 07/27/11 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 183 thousand
Listed on July 9, 2011


Kennametal Inc. - KMT - close: 44.40 change: -0.59

Stop Loss: 43.15
Target(s): 49.00
Current Gain/Loss: + 0.6%
Time Frame: up to its earnings report 7/28
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/23 update: KMT dipped again on Friday. I suspect shares might try and fill the gap from Tuesday morning. That means a dip back toward $43.65. The big picture is still bullish but we're running out of time. We only have three days left. Right now we plan to exit on July 27th at the closing bell to avoid holding over earnings on July 28th. However, I am raising our stop loss to $43.15 to reduce our risk.

Earlier Comments:
I do consider this a somewhat aggressive, higher-risk trade. More than one of KMT's technical indicators on the daily chart are at or nearing a bearish signal.

Current Position: Long KMT stock @ $44.13

07/23 new stop loss @ 43.15
07/23 prepare to exit on July 27th at the close

chart:

Entry on July 19 at $44.13
Earnings Date 07/28/11 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 826 thousand
Listed on July 18, 2011


Macy's Inc. - M - close: 30.50 change: +0.56

Stop Loss: 29.25
Target(s): 29.90, 32.25
Current Gain/Loss: + 7.7%
2nd Position Gain/Loss: + 2.1% Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/23 update: Friday turned out to be a bullish day for Macy's. Traders bought the dip near $30.00 and shares rallied toward their early July highs. I am raising our stop loss to $29.25. If we see some follow through on Friday's rally I would be tempted to open small bullish positions. Our final target is $32.25 but we might consider adjusting this target higher.

Earlier Comments:
Our plan was to keep positions small to limit our risk.

- small positions -

Current Position: Long M stock @ $28.30

- or -

Long Aug. $30 call (M1120H30) Entry @ $0.85

- 2nd Position, entry 7/11/11 -

suggested position: Long M stock @ $29.86

Long Aug. $32 call (M1120H32) Entry @ $0.63

07/23 new stop loss @ 29.25
07/16 new stop loss @ 28.90
07/09 new stop loss @ 28.49
07/09 Add 2nd position, buy stock/calls now
07/08 Planned exit. July $29 call @ $1.50 (+167.8%)
07/07 plan on exiting July calls tomorrow at the close
07/02 new stop loss @ 27.90
07/01 1st Target Hit @ 29.90 (+5.6%), options @ +107.1% (July) & +52.9% (Aug)

chart:

Entry on June 28 at $28.30
Earnings Date 08/10/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 8.6 million
Listed on June 27, 2011


Vanguard Natural Resources - VNR - cls: 30.61 chg: +0.30

Stop Loss: 28.99
Target(s): 33.25
Current Gain/Loss: - 0.0%
Time Frame: 3 to 4 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/23 update: We are back to breakeven on VNR. Shares just spent a week consolidating sideways above support at $30.00 and its 100-dma. If the market cooperates VNR should be rested and ready for another leg higher. More conservative traders may want to use a higher stop loss!

Nimble traders could try and buy dips near $30.00. If you prefer to see more strength then wait for a breakout past $31.00.

Current Position: Long VNR stock @ $30.61

- or -

Long AUG $30 call (VNR1120H30) Entry @ $1.20

07/19 Play is opened @ 30.61
07/18 The requirements to launch positions was not met. Try again. Both VNR and the S&P 500 need to open higher tomorrow.

chart:

Entry on July 19 at $30.61
Earnings Date 08/04/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 193 thousand
Listed on July 16, 2011


Western Refining Inc. - WNR - close: 20.80 change: -0.33

Stop Loss: 19.75
Target(s): 22.00, 24.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 6.6%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/23 update: WNR is starting to see some profit taking after almost a week of churning sideways near $21.00. I have been warning readers to expect a dip toward the 10-dma or the $20.00 level. Cautious traders may just want to take profits now.

Earlier Comments:
FYI: The Point & Figure chart for WNR is bullish with a $28.50 target. Plus, the most recent data listed short interest at 38% of the 54.2 million-share float. That's plenty of fuel for a short squeeze.

Current Position: Long WNR stock @ 19.50

- or -

Long AUG. $22 call (WNR1120H22) Entry @ $0.65

07/21 new stop loss @ 19.75
07/20 expect a dip toward the $20.35 area.
07/19 New stop loss @ 18.90. New targets @ 22.00 and $24.50

chart:

Entry on July 11 at $19.50
Earnings Date 08/04/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.0 million
Listed on July 9, 2011


BEARISH Play Updates

OptionsXpress Holdings - OXPS - close: 15.64 change: -0.16

Stop Loss: 16.05
Target(s): 14.05, 13.65
Current Gain/Loss: - 2.6%
Time Frame: about 2 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/23 update: OXPS did see its rebound fail at resistance near $16.00. Technically this could be used as a new bearish entry point. I have to warn you that we only have two days left. We need to exit on Tuesday at the closing bell to avoid holding over earnings Wednesday morning. Aggressive traders might want to consider holding over the report since many believe trading volumes for the industry have been down this past quarter.

Current Position: short OXPS stock @ $15.24

- or -

Long AUG $15 PUT (OXPS1120T15) Entry @ $0.45

07/23 Prepare to exit on Tuesday at the close
07/21 OXPS is testing resistance at $16.00.
07/20 Failure at the 200-dma is a new bearish entry point.

chart:

Entry on July 18 at $15.24
Earnings Date 07/27/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 696 thousand
Listed on July 16, 2011