Editor's Note:
We are seeing more and more weakness as investors worry over the U.S. debt ceiling deal. I am suggesting an early exit on CROX, GSM, and KMT. Tonight was a planned exit for the OXPS trade.

-James

Current Portfolio:


BULLISH Play Updates

China Sunergy Co. Ltd. - CSUN - close: 1.59 change: -0.03

Stop Loss: 1.48
Target(s): 2.00, 2.25
Current Gain/Loss: - 4.7%
Time Frame: 3 to 4 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/26 update: Our aggressive buy the bounce-from-support trade in CSUN is struggling. I warned readers yesterday that shares look poised for a deeper pull back. The low today was $1.53 late this afternoon. I was suggesting we buy the dip in the $1.55-1.50 zone. It looks like we may get another chance tomorrow. I'd probably wait for a dip in the $1.52-1.50 area now.

Earlier Comments:
We should consider this an aggressive, higher-risk trade given the trend lower so trade small. Our first target is $2.00. I would expect some resistance at the 50-dma. Our final target is $2.25 but we do not want to hold over the earnings report in mid August.

Current Position: Long CSUN stock @ $1.67

Entry on July 25 at $ 1.67
Earnings Date 08/15/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 325 thousand
Listed on July 23, 2011


Kaiser Aluminum - KALU - close: 55.52 change: -0.31

Stop Loss: 54.25
Target(s): 59.75
Current Gain/Loss: + 3.6%
Time Frame: 3 to 5 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/26 update: Readers may want to exit this trade now to lock in a gain. Our plan is to exit tomorrow at the closing bell to avoid holding over earnings. The stock plunged to technical support at its 20-dma before paring its losses. Given our time frame I am raising our stop loss up to $54.25. The low today was $54.70.

- Small Positions -

Current Position: Long KALU @ $53.56

- or -

Long AUG $55 call (KALU1120H55) Entry @ $1.30

07/26 new stop loss @ 54.25, prepare to exit tomorrow at the close
07/23 new stop loss @ 53.75
07/23 Prepare to exit on July 27 at the close
07/20 New stop loss @ 52.49

Entry on July 11 at $53.56
Earnings Date 07/27/11 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 183 thousand
Listed on July 9, 2011


Macy's Inc. - M - close: 29.92 change: -0.02

Stop Loss: 29.25
Target(s): 29.90, 32.25
Current Gain/Loss: + 5.7%
2nd Position Gain/Loss: + 0.2% Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/26 update: Macy's managed to trim its losses after testing its 20-dma this afternoon. More conservative traders may want to start scaling back and reducing your position size. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
Our plan was to keep positions small to limit our risk. Our final target is $32.25 but we might consider adjusting this target higher.

- small positions -

Current Position: Long M stock @ $28.30

- or -

Long Aug. $30 call (M1120H30) Entry @ $0.85

- 2nd Position, entry 7/11/11 -

suggested position: Long M stock @ $29.86

Long Aug. $32 call (M1120H32) Entry @ $0.63

07/23 new stop loss @ 29.25
07/16 new stop loss @ 28.90
07/09 new stop loss @ 28.49
07/09 Add 2nd position, buy stock/calls now
07/08 Planned exit. July $29 call @ $1.50 (+167.8%)
07/07 plan on exiting July calls tomorrow at the close
07/02 new stop loss @ 27.90
07/01 1st Target Hit @ 29.90 (+5.6%), options @ +107.1% (July) & +52.9% (Aug)

Entry on June 28 at $28.30
Earnings Date 08/10/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume: 8.6 million
Listed on June 27, 2011


Sandridge Energy, Inc. - SD - close: 12.01 change: +0.09

Stop Loss: 11.20
Target(s): 13.20, 13.90
Current Gain/Loss: + 1.9%
Time Frame: 2 to 3 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/26 update: SD is displaying relative strength and posted a +0.75% gain. Yet the action intraday looks bearish with a reversal off its highs near $12.36. I would expect another dip toward the $11.60-11.50 area and possibly its 100-dma (although a dip this low would stop us out). Wait for another dip or bounce from the $11.60 area before considering new positions.

Earlier Comments:
SD could see a short squeeze. The most recent data listed short interest at almost 10% of SD's 346 million-share float. We do not want to hold over the August 4th earnings report so we don't have much time. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for SD is bullish with a long-term target at $31.

Current Position: Long SD stock @ $11.78

Entry on July 25 at $11.78
Earnings Date 08/04/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 12.1 million
Listed on July 23, 2011


Vanguard Natural Resources - VNR - cls: 30.19 chg: -0.26

Stop Loss: 28.99
Target(s): 33.25
Current Gain/Loss: - 1.3%
Time Frame: 3 to 4 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/26 update: VNR has pulled back toward support near the bottom of its $30-31 trading range. This could be used as an entry point but if you do I'd use a much tighter stop loss. Speaking of stops readers may want to raise their stop toward the $29.75-29.80 area. Currently our stop is $28.99.

After hours tonight VNR announced a +5% increase in its quarterly cash dividend. I am not seeing any reaction to the stock in after hours trading.

Current Position: Long VNR stock @ $30.61

- or -

Long AUG $30 call (VNR1120H30) Entry @ $1.20

07/19 Play is opened @ 30.61
07/18 The requirements to launch positions was not met. Try again. Both VNR and the S&P 500 need to open higher tomorrow.

Entry on July 19 at $30.61
Earnings Date 08/04/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 193 thousand
Listed on July 16, 2011


Western Refining Inc. - WNR - close: 21.10 change: -0.34

Stop Loss: 20.35
Target(s): 22.00, 24.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 8.2%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/26 update: WNR gave back just over half of yesterday's gains. I am still concerned that WNR is overbought. Readers may want to exit early now to lock in a gain. Please note that I am raising our stop loss to $20.35. If we do get stopped out I'd keep WNR on your watch list. We'll be looking for another entry point closer to support.

Earlier Comments:
FYI: The Point & Figure chart for WNR is bullish with a $28.50 target. Plus, the most recent data listed short interest at 38% of the 54.2 million-share float. That's plenty of fuel for a short squeeze.

Current Position: Long WNR stock @ 19.50

- or -

Long AUG. $22 call (WNR1120H22) Entry @ $0.65

07/26 new stop loss @ 20.35
07/21 new stop loss @ 19.75
07/20 expect a dip toward the $20.35 area.
07/19 New stop loss @ 18.90. New targets @ 22.00 and $24.50

Entry on July 11 at $19.50
Earnings Date 08/04/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.0 million
Listed on July 9, 2011


CLOSED BULLISH PLAYS

CROCS Inc. - CROX - close: 27.15 change: -1.11

Stop Loss: 26.45
Target(s): 29.90, 31.75
Current Gain/Loss: - 0.6%
Time Frame: up to its earnings report
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/26 update: It's time to hit the eject button on our CROX trade. I warned readers yesterday that the action on Monday looked like a potential top and short-term bearish reversal. Today's decline and underperformance (-3.9%) certainly strengthens that opinion. The longer-term trend is still up but I am suggesting an early exit now. We were going to exit tomorrow at the close anyway.

Suggested Position: Long CROX stock @ $27.31, exit $27.15 (-0.59%)

- or -

AUG $28 call (CROX1120H28) Entry @ $1.15, exit $1.15 (-0.0%)

07/26 Exit early
07/23 new stop loss @ 26.45.
07/23 Prepare to exit prior to earnings on July 27th.

chart:

Entry on July 20 at $27.31
Earnings Date 07/27/11 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.1 million
Listed on July 19, 2011


Globe Specialty Metals, Inc. - GSM - close: 24.26 change: -0.57

Stop Loss: 23.80
Target(s): 27.25, 29.50
Current Gain/Loss: - 3.6%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/26 update: The plunging U.S. dollar should be bullish for commodity-related names but it was no help to GSM today. The stock reversed near resistance at $25.00 and fell toward the bottom of its trading range near $24. I am giving up on this trade and suggesting an early exit now! The plan was to keep our positions small to limit our risk.

Earlier Comments:
We should consider this an aggressive, higher-risk trade so let's keep our position size small to limit risk. We can always add to positions down the road. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for GSM is bullish with a $28.50 target.

- SMALL positions -

closed Position: Long GMS stock @ $25.18, exit 24.26 (-3.6%)

- or -

AUG $25 call (GSM1120H25) Entry @ $1.60, exit $0.75 (-53.1%)

07/26 exit early
07/20 New stop loss @ 23.80

chart:

Entry on July 14 at $25.18
Earnings Date 09/15/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 874 thousand
Listed on July 13, 2011


Kennametal Inc. - KMT - close: 43.26 change: -0.99

Stop Loss: 43.15
Target(s): 49.00
Current Gain/Loss: - 1.9%
Time Frame: up to its earnings report 7/28
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/26 update: I am suggesting an early exit from our KMT trade. The plan was to exit tomorrow at the close to avoid earnings but shares are underperforming. The stock will probably hit our stop loss tomorrow. Even though we're closing this trade I would keep KMT on your watch list. If shares see some profit taking on its earnings report a bounce from $40 or its 200-dma might be a new bullish entry point.

Earlier Comments:
I do consider this a somewhat aggressive, higher-risk trade.

closed Position: Long KMT stock @ $44.13, exit 43.26 (-1.9%)

07/26 exit early @ 43.26
07/23 new stop loss @ 43.15
07/23 prepare to exit on July 27th at the close

chart:

Entry on July 19 at $44.13
Earnings Date 07/28/11 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 826 thousand
Listed on July 18, 2011


CLOSED BEARISH PLAYS

OptionsXpress Holdings - OXPS - close: 15.47 change: -0.02

Stop Loss: 16.05
Target(s): 14.05, 13.65
Current Gain/Loss: - 1.5%
Time Frame: about 2 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/26 update: The plan was to exit positions today at the closing bell to avoid holding over earnings. Unfortunately the stock did not move very much. Shares just hovered near the $15.50 level as investors waited for the earnings news. I'm starting to think we may have wanted to hold over this report.

I warned readers that OXPS would likely miss earnings estimates due to lower trading volumes. Sure enough, OXPS missed Wall Street's estimates by 8 cents and missed the revenue number. Thus far I am not seeing a reaction in after hours markets but odds are the stock will gap open lower tomorrow.

closed Position: short OXPS stock @ $15.24, exit $15.47 (-1.5%)

- or -

AUG $15 PUT (OXPS1120T15) Entry @ $0.45, exit $0.20 (-55.5%)

07/26 Planned exit
07/23 Prepare to exit on Tuesday at the close
07/21 OXPS is testing resistance at $16.00.
07/20 Failure at the 200-dma is a new bearish entry point.

chart:

Entry on July 18 at $15.24
Earnings Date 07/27/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 696 thousand
Listed on July 16, 2011