Editor's Note:
Shares of software stock ADBE hits our exit target. Meanwhile UWM hits our stop loss, closing our position for a gain.

-James

Current Portfolio:


BULLISH Play Updates

Beazer Homes - BZH - close: 2.15 change: -0.05

Stop Loss: 1.84
Target(s): 3.25
Current Gain/Loss: -1.8%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
10/31 update: BZH opened at $2.19 and lost -2.2% by the closing bell. We would still consider new bullish positions now but a better idea might be to wait for a dip towards the $2.05-2.00 zone.

Earlier Comments:
Tonight I am listing a very high target at $3.25 but I anticipate scaling that down. This is sort of a just-in-case BZH delivers better than expected earnings and the stock explodes kind of target. This industry is very heavily shorted so a short squeeze is a definite possibility.

Please note we are going to take the unusual step and hold over BZH's earnings in November. Normally we try to always exit ahead of earnings to avoid holding over the announcement.

FYI: You could buy calls but the spreads are so wide they could actually increase your risk (but they'll definitely leverage any move higher).

current Position: Long BZH stock @ $2.19

- or -

Long 2012 Jan $3.00 call (BZH1221A3) Entry $0.15

Entry on October 31 at $2.19
Earnings Date 11/15/11 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.4 million
Listed on October 29, 2011


Juniper Networks - JNPR - close: 24.47 change: -0.34

Stop Loss: 22.75
Target(s): 29.00
Current Gain/Loss: unopened
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
10/31 update: Bullish analyst comments on JNPR were not enough to keep the stock in positive territory. Shares churned sideways but eventually lost -1.3%. I do not see any changes from my prior comments.

We are suggesting readers launch small bullish positions at $24.00 with a stop loss at $22.75. More conservative traders will want to consider waiting for a dip near $23.00 or even its simple 10-dma before initiating new bullish positions. Meanwhile aggressive traders will want to consider placing their stop loss under $22.00, which should be support. We want to keep our position size small to limit our risk. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for JNPR is bullish with a $41 target.

buy the dip trigger @ 24.00 (small positions)

Suggested Position: buy JNPR stock @ $24.00

- or -

buy the JAN $25 call (JNPR1221A25)

10/29 alternative entry point: dip at $23.00

Entry on October xx at $ xx.xx
Earnings Date 10/18/11
Average Daily Volume = 13 million
Listed on October 29, 2011


VeriFone Systems - PAY - close: 42.21 change: -0.79

Stop Loss: 39.95
Target(s): 44.85
Current Gain/Loss: +3.8%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
10/31 update: I am repeating my weekend comments. Readers may want to take profits now. The stock failed at $43.00 for the second day in a row. I would expect a dip back toward the $41.00-40.00 zone.

I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
We will aim for $44.85 as our exit target. More conservative traders may want to exit near the 200-dma. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for PAY is bullish with a $59 target.

current Position: Long PAY stock @ $40.65

- or -

Long NOV $42 call (PAY1119K42) Entry $1.05

10/29 new stop loss @ 39.95
Readers may want to go ahead and take profits now, especially with the Nov $42 calls (+114%)
10/27 new stop loss @ 38.40
10/27 Trade opened. PAY gapped higher at $40.65

Entry on October 27 at $40.65
Earnings Date 12/01/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.3 million
Listed on October 13, 2011


Red Hat, Inc. - RHT - close: 49.65 change: -2.21

Stop Loss: 47.80
Target(s): 54.75
Current Gain/Loss: +1.2%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
10/31 update: After last week's big gains RHT hit some profit taking today. The stock gapped open lower at $50.87 and closed down -4.2%. Broken resistance in the $49.00-48.00 zone should be new support. Wait for a dip into this area or a bounce out of this area as our next entry point.

current Position: Long RHT stock @ 49.05

- or -

Long NOV $50 call (RHT1119K50) Entry $1.20

10/29 new stop loss @ 47.80
readers may want to take profits on the calls now, which are already up +137%
10/27 trade opened at trigger $49.05

Entry on October 27 at $49.05
Earnings Date 12/21/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.8 million
Listed on October 26, 2011


Financial Sector ETF - XLF - close: 13.50 change: -0.56

Stop Loss: 13.25
Target(s): 14.45
Current Gain/Loss: + 6.2%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
10/31 update: Financial stocks were some of the market's best performers in October. Thus they were some of the worst performers today as traders sought to lock in gains. The MF Global bankruptcy news also dampened spirits for the financial sector.

The XLF fell to $13.50 and its 100-dma with today's -4% pull back. If it continues lower we'll likely see the XLF hit our stop loss at $13.25. More aggressive traders may want to widen the stop so that it's under the $13.00 level.

I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

current Position: Long XLF @ $12.71

10/28 exited Nov. $13 calls @ $1.00 (+138.0%)
10/27 plan to exit Nov. $13 calls at the open tomorrow
10/27 new stop loss @ 13.25
10/20 trade opened. XLF at $12.71
10/19 try again. New stop loss @ 11.95

Entry on October 20 at $12.71
Earnings Date --/--/--
Average Daily Volume = 125 million
Listed on October 18, 2011


Xilinx Inc. - XLNX - close: 33.46 change: +0.27

Stop Loss: 31.40
Target(s): 35.75
Current Gain/Loss: unopened
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
10/31 update: XLNX displayed relative strength with a +0.8% gain but the rally struggled with resistance at $34.00. I am still expecting a pull back soon.

I am suggesting we open small bullish positions on a dip at $32.50 with a stop loss at $31.25. More conservative traders may want to wait for a dip closer to $32.00 as their entry point instead.

Our multi-week target is $35.75. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for XLNX is bullish with a $46 target.

buy-the-dip trigger @ 32.50 (small positions)

Suggested Position: buy XLNX stock @ 32.50

- or -

buy the Jan $35 call (XLNX1221A35)

Entry on October xx at $ xx.xx
Earnings Date 10/19/11
Average Daily Volume = 5.0 million
Listed on October 29, 2011


BEARISH Play Updates

Ancestry.com Inc. - ACOM - close: 22.77 change: +0.10

Stop Loss: 24.35
Target(s): 18.75
Current Gain/Loss: -4.4%
Time Frame: 4 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
10/31 update: ACOM is still trying to bounce it's just not making very much progress. I would probably wait for a drop under $21.50 before initiating new positions. This was an idea I suggested as an alternative on Thursday night.

Earlier Comments:
FYI: You might want to trade the put options instead of shorting the stock. The most recent data listed short interest at 20% of the small 31.5 million share float. That raises the risk of a short squeeze.

current Position: short ACOM stock @ $21.80

- or -

Long NOV $22.50 PUT (ACOM1119W22.5) Entry $1.41

Entry on October 28 at $21.80
Earnings Date 10/26/11 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 840 thousand
Listed on October 27, 2011


Dish Network - DISH - close: 24.17 change: -0.27

Stop Loss: 27.15
Target(s): 21.25
Current Gain/Loss: +4.7%
Time Frame: 4 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
10/31 update: DISH lost another -1.1% but shares managed to hold on to support near $24.00 for the second day in a row. The larger trend here is still bearish but I would wait for a bounce or a failed rally in the $25.00-25.50 zone before considering new bearish positions.

Earlier Comments:
FYI: The Point & Figure chart for DISH is bearish with a $16 target.

current Position: short DISH stock @ $25.38

- or -

Long NOV $25 PUT (DISH1119W25) Entry $1.20

Entry on October 28 at $25.38
Earnings Date 11/07/11 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.0 million
Listed on October 27, 2011


CLOSED BULLISH PLAYS

Adobe Systems - ADBE - close: 29.41 change: +0.39

Stop Loss: 27.15
Target(s): 29.50
Current Gain/Loss: +8.7%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
10/31 update: Target achieved. ADBE gapped open lower at $28.48 but managed to rally to a new relative high at $29.72. Our final target was hit at $29.50 (+8.7%).

Current Position: Long ADBE @ 27.13, exit 29.50 (+8.7%)

- or -

NOV $27 call (ADBE1119K27) Entry $1.27 exit $2.65 (+108.6%)

10/31 exit target hit at $29.50
10/29 new stop loss @ 27.15
10/29 readers may want to take profits now (+6.9% & +75% option)
10/27 new stop loss @ 26.75
10/26 new stop loss @ 25.95
10/20 new stop loss @ 25.45
10/18 new stop loss @ 25.35, today's bounce looks like an entry
10/14 ADBE gapped higher at $27.13

chart:

Entry on October 14 at $27.13
Earnings Date 12/15/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 7.1 million
Listed on October 11, 2011


Ultra (long) Russell 2000 ETF - UWM - close: 35.40 chg: -2.17

Stop Loss: 35.75
Target(s): 39.00
Current Gain/Loss: + 7.5%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
10/31 update: Ouch! The UWM would have cut our gains in half with today's -5.7% pull back but our trade is closed. Shares hit our new stop loss at $35.75. I would look for short-term support near $34.00 if you're looking for a new entry point.

(Small Positions)

Suggested Position: Long UWM stock @ 33.25, exit $35.75 (+7.5%)

10/31 UWM position stopped out at $35.75
10/28 exited Nov. $35 calls @ $3.25 (+91.1%)
10/27 prepare to exit Nov. $35 calls at the open tomorrow
10/27 new stop loss @ 35.75
10/24 triggered @ 33.25

chart:

Entry on October 24 at $33.25
Earnings Date --/--/--
Average Daily Volume = 3.9 million
Listed on October 22, 2011