Editor's Note:
The XLF financial ETF broke down under short-term support thanks to continued worries over Europe and banks exposure to the debt crisis.

Our XLF trade was stopped out at $12.75.

We did adjust a couple of entry point strategies tonight.

-James

Current Portfolio:


BULLISH Play Updates

Allegheny Technologies Inc. - ATI - close: 48.36 change: -1.64

Stop Loss: 47.75
Target(s): 56.75
Current Gain/Loss: -5.1%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/16 update: I am starting to think we set our trigger to open positions too low. The stock opened lower, rallied off short-term support near $48.00, but the rally failed at $50.63. Now ATI is facing support at $48.00 again. A breakdown there could herald a drop toward the $45 level or even the 50-dma.

I am not suggesting new positions at this time. We will inch up our stop loss to $47.75.

current Position: Long ATI stock @ 50.60

- or -

Long DEC $52.50 call (ATI1117L52.5) Entry $2.75

11/16 new stop loss @ 47.75
11/14 trade triggered at $50.60

Entry on November 14 at $50.60
Earnings Date 01/26/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.5 million
Listed on November 12, 2011


Beazer Homes - BZH - close: 2.16 change: -0.06

Stop Loss: 1.90
Target(s): 3.25
Current Gain/Loss: -1.3%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/16 update: Can we call it a "quiet" day for BZH with the stock only moving -2.7%. Nimble traders could launch new positions on a dip or a bounce off the $2.00 level.

current Position: Long BZH stock @ $2.19

- or -

Long 2012 Jan $3.00 call (BZH1221A3) Entry $0.15

11/12 new stop loss @ 1.90. More conservative traders may want to exit prior to the earnings report to lock in a gain.

Entry on October 31 at $2.19
Earnings Date 11/15/11 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.4 million
Listed on October 29, 2011


Casey's General Stores - CASY - close: 51.09 change: -1.57

Stop Loss: 49.40
Target(s): 54.50
Current Gain/Loss: - 0.2%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/16 update: Ouch! CASY just erased all of our unrealized gains with today's -2.9% plunge. I would wait for a dip or a bounce near the $50.00 level before considering new bullish positions. (Yesterday we raised the stop loss to $49.40.)

Earlier Comments:
FYI: The Point & Figure chart for CASY is bullish with a $70.00 target.

Current Position: Long CASY stock @ $51.19

- or -

Long DEC $50 call (CASY1117L50) Entry $2.90

11/15 new stop loss @ 49.40
11/12 new stop loss @ 48.75
11/08 new stop loss @ 47.95
11/08 trade opened.

Entry on November 08 at $51.19
Earnings Date 12/06/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 250 thousand
Listed on November 5, 2011


Carlisle Companies - CSL - close: 43.61 change: -1.06

Stop Loss: 41.90
Target(s): 49.50
Current Gain/Loss: unopened
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
11/16 update: Our trade on CSL is still not open yet. The stock gapped open lower, negating our entry point strategy. Speaking of entry points I am adjusting ours. We will use a trigger at $45.05 to open bullish positions. More aggressive or nimble traders might want to consider buying CSL on a dip or a bounce from the $42.75 area. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for CSL is bullish with a $73.00 target.

NOTE: Options are available but the spreads are too wide to trade.

Trigger @ 45.05

Suggested Position: buy CSL stock @ the open

11/16 adjusted entry point strategy to use a trigger at $45.05

Entry on November xx at $ xx.xx
Earnings Date 02/07/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 327 thousand
Listed on November 14, 2011


CEMEX - CX - close: 4.51 change: -0.13

Stop Loss: 4.29
Target(s): 5.10
Current Gain/Loss: + 0.6%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/16 update: CX gave up -2.8% and yet shares have spent the last five days churning sideways. I will repeat my suggestion from yesterday that more conservative traders may want to adjust their stop loss higher. If CX breaks the trend of higher lows it could see a drop toward $4.00.

I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

current Position: Long CX stock @ $4.48

- or -

Long Jan $5 call (CX1221A5) Entry $0.45

11/12 new stop loss @ 4.29, new exit target @ 5.10
11/07 new stop loss @ 4.24
11/05 new stop loss @ 3.97
11/03 CX gapped open to $4.48 (+6.3%)

Entry on November 3 at $ 4.48
Earnings Date 10/26/11
Average Daily Volume = 20.3 million
Listed on November 2, 2011


Honeywell Intl. - HON - close: 53.29 change: -1.12

Stop Loss: 52.40
Target(s): 58.50
Current Gain/Loss: - 2.0%
Time Frame: 3 to 4 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/16 update: Uh-oh! HON has broke down under what should have been support near $54.00 and its 10 and 200-dma. More conservative traders may want to exit positions immediately. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Current Position: Long HON stock @ $54.40

- or -

Long DEC $55 call (HON1117L55) Entry $1.78

11/16 HON broke down under support near $54 and its 10 and 200-dma. More conservative traders may want to exit immediately
11/11 trade opened on HON's gap higher at $54.40
11/09 adjusted entry point strategy to Trigger @ 54.25, moved stop loss to $52.40

Entry on November xx at $ xx.xx
Earnings Date 01/30/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 5.3 million
Listed on November 8, 2011


IMAX Corp. - IMAX - close: 19.27 change: +0.03

Stop Loss: 17.70
Target(s): 24.50
Current Gain/Loss: - 0.5%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/16 update: IMAX displayed a little relative strength today with a 0.1% gain. Unfortunately the rally reversed at technical resistance at the simple 100-dma intraday. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

More conservative traders might want to consider a stop loss closer to $18.25 to limit risk.

Earlier Comments:
Our multi-week target is $24.50. Keep in mind that the exponential 200-dma could be resistance near $22.25ish. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for IMAX is bullish with a $28.00 target.

Current Position: Long IMAX @ $19.38

- or -

Long DEC $20 call (IMAX1117L20) Entry $1.27

Entry on November 3 at $19.38
Earnings Date 10/27/11
Average Daily Volume = 1.2 million
Listed on November 2, 2011


Juniper Networks - JNPR - close: 23.98 change: -0.61

Stop Loss: 22.95
Target(s): 29.00
Current Gain/Loss: + 1.1%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/16 update: Technology stocks were underperformers today. JNPR sank to a new four-day low with today's -2.4% decline. The $24.00 level should have been support. More conservative traders may want to raise their stops into the $23.50 area. I am upping the newsletter's stop loss to $22.95.

Currently our exit target is $29.00 but readers may want to exit at potential technical resistance near the exponential 200-dma.

Earlier Comments:
The plan was to keep positions small to limit our risk.

(small positions)

current Position: Long JNPR stock @ $23.72

- or -

Long JAN $25 call (JNPR1221A25) Entry $1.50

11/16 new stop loss @ 22.95
11/12 new stop loss @ 22.70
11/02 trade is open. JNPR opened at $23.72
11/01 Try again. New strategy. Buy JNPR if stock and S&P500 opens positive tomorrow, stop loss @ 21.90.
11/01 trade opened at $23.46, stopped out @ 22.75 (-3.0% loss)
option opened @ $1.80, exit $1.36 (-24.4%)
10/29 alternative entry point: dip at $23.00

Entry on November 2 at $23.72
Earnings Date 10/18/11
Average Daily Volume = 13 million
Listed on October 29, 2011


KB Home - KBH - close: 7.51 change: -0.02

Stop Loss: 6.70
Target(s): 9.50
Current Gain/Loss: -0.5%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/16 update: KBH was showing some relative strength intraday but the rally reversed near resistance at the $8.00 level. While KBH only lost -0.2% today the move looks like a bearish reversal. I am growing more cautious here. We are not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
The most recent data listed short interest at more than 50% of the relatively small 65.4 million-share float. That's definitely enough fuel for a significant short squeeze.

KBH can be a volatile stock so we need to use a wide stop loss. This raises the risk profile on this trade. We will aim for $9.50 but the exponential 200-dma might be overhead resistance (currently at 9.10).

current Position: Long KBH stock @ 7.55

- or -

Long Jan $7.50 call (KBH1221A7.5) Entry $0.91

11/11 trade opened at $7.55

Entry on November 11 at $ 7.55
Earnings Date 01/09/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 5.8 million
Listed on November 10, 2011


Kodiak Oil & Gas - KOG - close: 8.12 change: +0.28

Stop Loss: 7.20
Target(s): 9.75
Current Gain/Loss: + 8.1%
Time Frame: two to three months
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/16 update: KOG flexed its relative strength muscles with a breakout to a new all-time high. KOG had been up +8.4% when it hit $8.50 this afternoon but shares faded lower to settle with a +3.5% gain. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
Our multi-month target is $9.75. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for KOG is bullish with a $13.75 target. KOG is a potential takeover target.

current Position: Long the stock @ 7.51

- or -

Long 2012 MAR $7.50 call (KOG1217C7.5) Entry $1.25

11/15 gap down at 7.41 and hit 7.21 before bouncing.
11/14 new stop loss @ 7.20
11/14 KOG announces plans to sell an additional 37.5 million shares of new stock
11/08 trade opened at $7.51.

Entry on November 08 at $ 7.51
Earnings Date 03/05/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 6.6 million
Listed on November 5, 2011


Newfield Exploration Co. - NFX - close: 42.41 change: -0.52

Stop Loss: 41.95
Target(s): 49.75
Current Gain/Loss: unopened
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
11/16 update: NFX continues to churn sideways in the $42.20-44.00 zone. Our trade is not open yet. NFX keeps gapping open lower negating our entry point strategy. The stock seems to be hugging the 50-dma.

We are adjusting our entry strategy. The new plan is a trigger to open bullish positions at $44.25. We will move our stop loss up to $41.95.

Earlier Comments:
I am suggesting we keep our position size small to limit our risk. More conservative traders might want to wait for a rally past possible resistance near $45.00 as an alternative entry point. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for NFX is bullish with a $57.00 target.

Trigger @ 44.25 (small positions)

Suggested Position: buy NFX stock @ $44.25

- or -

buy the DEC $45 call (NFX1117L45)

11/16 adjusted entry strategy to use a trigger at $44.25, stop @ 41.95

Entry on November xx at $ xx.xx
Earnings Date 02/16/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.1 million
Listed on November 12, 2011


Ryder System, Inc. - R - close: 52.42 change: -1.12

Stop Loss: 51.40
Target(s): 59.50
Current Gain/Loss: unopened
Time Frame: 6 to 9 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
11/16 update: Our new trade on R is not open yet. The stock failed under resistance near $54.00 and looks poised to test support near $52.00 soon. More aggressive traders could buy a dip or a bounce in the $52.00-51.50 zone. We are adjusting our entry point strategy to use a trigger at $54.05. We'll move our stop loss up to $51.40. Our multi-week exit target is $59.50. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for R is bullish with an $87 target.

NOTE: Thursday morning we will likely see R with a small gap down thanks to a 29-cent dividend. The dividend isn't payable until mid December but shares will begin trading ex-dividend on Thursday.

Trigger @ 54.05

Suggested Position: buy R stock @ $54.05

- or -

buy the 2012 Feb. $57.50 call (R1202B57.5)

11/16 adjusted entry strategy to use a trigger at $54.05 and a stop at $51.40

Entry on November xx at $ xx.xx
Earnings Date 02/02/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 727 thousand
Listed on November 15, 2011


Red Hat, Inc. - RHT - close: 51.89 change: -0.83

Stop Loss: 49.40
Target(s): 54.90
Current Gain/Loss: + 3.2%
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/16 update: RHT succumbed to some profit taking after yesterday's big rally. I would wait for a dip or a bounce near $51.00 before considering new positions. We are raising our stop loss up to $49.40.

Earlier Comments:
Our plan was to keep positions small to limit our risk.

(small positions)

current Position: Long RHT stock @ $50.25

- or -

Long DEC $52.50 call (RHT1117L52.5) Entry $1.50

11/16 new stop loss @ 49.40
11/11 trade opened at $50.25
11/09 adjusted entry point strategy: Trigger @ 50.25, stop loss 48.45

Entry on November 11 at $50.25
Earnings Date 12/21/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.1 million
Listed on November 8, 2011


Xilinx Inc. - XLNX - close: 32.69 change: -0.28

Stop Loss: 31.40
Target(s): 35.75
Current Gain/Loss: + 0.5%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/16 update: XLNX managed to rally off the morning gap lower but shares reversed at $33.51. If stocks continue to struggle we could see XLNX retest the $32.00-31.70 zone again. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
The plan was to keep our position size small to limit risk. Our multi-week target is $35.75. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for XLNX is bullish with a $46 target.

(small positions)

Current Position: Long XLNX stock @ 32.50

- or -

Long Jan $35 call (XLNX1221A35) Entry $0.95

Entry on November 1 at $32.50
Earnings Date 10/19/11
Average Daily Volume = 5.0 million
Listed on October 29, 2011


BEARISH Play Updates

None. We do not have any active bearish trades.


CLOSED BULLISH PLAYS

Financial SPDR ETF - XLF - close: 12.71 change: -0.32

Stop Loss: 12.75
Target(s): simple 200-dma
Current Gain/Loss: - 5.9%
Time Frame: 4 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/16 update: Our aggressive trade on the financials, via the XLF, has been stopped out. Shares were holding support near $12.80 until the market's plunge lower in the last hour of trading. That's when the XLF hit our stop loss at $12.75. Now this ETF is testing technical support at the 50-dma.

Earlier Comments:
We want to keep our position size small!

(small positions)

current Position: Long the XLF @ $13.55, exit $12.75 (-5.9%)

- or -

2012 Jan $14 call (XLF1221A14) Entry $0.59, Exit 0.29 (-50.8%)

11/16 stopped out at $12.75
11/15 new stop loss @ 12.75
11/09 new stop loss @ 12.59
11/08 trade opened at $13.55
11/07 new strategy: Instead of buying a dip, I am suggesting we buy a rally with a trigger at $13.55. New stop loss $12.74. Target simple 200-dma.

chart:

Entry on November 08 at $13.55
Earnings Date --/--/--
Average Daily Volume = 137 million
Listed on November 3, 2011