Editor's Note:
Friday's session was relatively quiet. Yet we did see CX hit our stop loss and NFX hit our new buy-the-dip trigger to open positions.

-James

Current Portfolio:


BULLISH Play Updates

Beazer Homes - BZH - close: 2.12 change: +0.03

Stop Loss: 1.90
Target(s): 3.25
Current Gain/Loss: -3.2%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/19 update: BZH is holding up reasonably well. Shares actually managed a gain on Friday (+1.4%) but I still expect it to test the $2.00 level. Wait for the dip or a bounce from $2.00 as a new entry point.

current Position: Long BZH stock @ $2.19

- or -

Long 2012 Jan $3.00 call (BZH1221A3) Entry $0.15

11/12 new stop loss @ 1.90. More conservative traders may want to exit prior to the earnings report to lock in a gain.

chart:

Entry on October 31 at $2.19
Earnings Date 11/15/11 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.4 million
Listed on October 29, 2011


Casey's General Stores - CASY - close: 51.02 change: +0.29

Stop Loss: 49.40
Target(s): 54.50
Current Gain/Loss: - 0.3%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/19 update: CASY rebounded off its Friday morning lows near $50.30. More aggressive trades may want to buy this bounce. I am not convinced the market's pull back is over yet. Readers may want to wait for a dip closer to the $50.00 mark before considering new positions.

Keep in mind that CASY is due to report earnings in the next two or three weeks and we will exit ahead of the announcement.

Earlier Comments:
FYI: The Point & Figure chart for CASY is bullish with a $70.00 target.

Current Position: Long CASY stock @ $51.19

- or -

Long DEC $50 call (CASY1117L50) Entry $2.90

11/15 new stop loss @ 49.40
11/12 new stop loss @ 48.75
11/08 new stop loss @ 47.95
11/08 trade opened.

chart:

Entry on November 08 at $51.19
Earnings Date 12/06/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 250 thousand
Listed on November 5, 2011


Carlisle Companies - CSL - close: 43.07 change: +0.51

Stop Loss: 39.85
Target(s): 49.50
Current Gain/Loss: unopened
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
11/19 update: CSL delivered a gain on Friday and closed up +1.1%. Shares seem to be hovering above their simple 200-dma and 20-dma. I am not convinced the market's pull back is over. I am moving our buy-the-dip entry point down to $41.75. We want to keep our position size small to limit our risk on this aggressive entry point.

Trigger @ 41.75 (small positions)

Suggested Position: buy CSL stock @ trigger

11/19 moved our trigger down to $41.75
11/17 adjusted entry point to trigger @ 42.25, stop loss to $39.85
11/16 adjusted entry point strategy to use a trigger at $45.05

chart:

Entry on November xx at $ xx.xx
Earnings Date 02/07/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 327 thousand
Listed on November 14, 2011


IMAX Corp. - IMAX - close: 19.43 change: +0.33

Stop Loss: 18.20
Target(s): 24.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 0.2%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/19 update: Friday was a seesaw session for IMAX but shares eventually closed higher with a +1.7% gain. The stock also managed to close above its 100-dma. I would be tempted to launch new bullish positions on a rally past the $20.00 level.

Earlier Comments:
Our multi-week target is $24.50. Keep in mind that the exponential 200-dma could be resistance near $22.25ish. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for IMAX is bullish with a $28.00 target.

Current Position: Long IMAX @ $19.38

- or -

Long DEC $20 call (IMAX1117L20) Entry $1.27

11/17 new stop loss @ 18.20

chart:

Entry on November 3 at $19.38
Earnings Date 10/27/11
Average Daily Volume = 1.2 million
Listed on November 2, 2011


KB Home - KBH - close: 7.22 change: -0.20

Stop Loss: 6.70
Target(s): 9.50
Current Gain/Loss: -4.3%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/19 update: KBH continued to retreat lower on Friday with a -2.6% loss. Yet shares are nearing their trendline of higher lows. Traders could buy a bounce from current levels. More conservative traders might want to raise their stop loss close to the $7.00 level.

Earlier Comments:
The most recent data listed short interest at more than 50% of the relatively small 65.4 million-share float. That's definitely enough fuel for a significant short squeeze.

KBH can be a volatile stock so we need to use a wide stop loss. This raises the risk profile on this trade. We will aim for $9.50 but the exponential 200-dma might be overhead resistance (currently at 9.10).

current Position: Long KBH stock @ 7.55

- or -

Long Jan $7.50 call (KBH1221A7.5) Entry $0.91

11/11 trade opened at $7.55

chart:

Entry on November 11 at $ 7.55
Earnings Date 01/09/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 5.8 million
Listed on November 10, 2011


Kodiak Oil & Gas - KOG - close: 7.75 change: -0.13

Stop Loss: 7.20
Target(s): 9.75
Current Gain/Loss: + 3.2%
Time Frame: two to three months
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/19 update: Friday's loss (-1.6%) could have been a lot worse. KOG announced they were bumping the size of their secondary offering (of stock) from 37.5 million shares to 42 million shares. Yet current investors do not seem worried about the dilutive effects this is going to have on their positions.

Given KOG's relative strength I would be tempted to open new bullish positions on a dip or a bounce near the $7.50 mark.

Earlier Comments:
Our multi-month target is $9.75. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for KOG is bullish with a $13.75 target. KOG is a potential takeover target.

current Position: Long the stock @ 7.51

- or -

Long 2012 MAR $7.50 call (KOG1217C7.5) Entry $1.25

11/15 gap down at 7.41 and hit 7.21 before bouncing.
11/14 new stop loss @ 7.20
11/14 KOG announces plans to sell an additional 37.5 million shares of new stock
11/08 trade opened at $7.51.

chart:

Entry on November 08 at $ 7.51
Earnings Date 03/05/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 6.6 million
Listed on November 5, 2011


Newfield Exploration Co. - NFX - close: 40.87 change: +0.27

Stop Loss: 39.70
Target(s): 43.90
Current Gain/Loss: + 1.5%
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/19 update: Our NFX has been opened. Shares hit our new trigger to open bullish positions at $40.25 on Friday. I would still consider new positions now if both NFX and the S&P 500 open positive on Monday morning. Our short-term target is $43.90. More aggressive traders could aim higher.

Earlier Comments:
I am suggesting we keep our position size small to limit our risk.

(small positions)

current Position: Long NFX stock @ $40.25

- or -

Long DEC $40 call (NFX1117L40) Entry $2.50

11/18 trade opened at $40.25
11/17 adjusted our entry strategy to buy-the-dip at $40.25, stop loss 39.70
11/16 adjusted entry strategy to use a trigger at $44.25, stop @ 41.95

chart:

Entry on November 18 at $40.25
Earnings Date 02/16/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.1 million
Listed on November 12, 2011


Ryder System, Inc. - R - close: 51.14 change: +0.02

Stop Loss: 48.99
Target(s): 54.75
Current Gain/Loss: unopened
Time Frame: 6 to 9 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
11/19 update: R gapped open higher on Friday morning but the gains didn't last. Shares faded back toward unchanged. I am still expecting a dip toward $50.00. We have a trigger to open bullish positions at $50.25.

Trigger @ 50.25

Suggested Position: buy R stock @ $50.25

- or -

buy the 2012 Feb. $55.00 call (R1202B55)

11/17 adjusted our entry point strategy to buy the dip at $50.25 with a stop loss at $48.99
11/16 adjusted entry strategy to use a trigger at $54.05 and a stop at $51.40

chart:

Entry on November xx at $ xx.xx
Earnings Date 02/02/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 727 thousand
Listed on November 15, 2011


Xilinx Inc. - XLNX - close: 31.47 change: -0.29

Stop Loss: 31.40
Target(s): 35.75
Current Gain/Loss: - 3.1%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/19 update: Technology stocks were still underperforming on Friday and our XLNX trade is in trouble. The Friday morning pop quickly faded and XLNX closed at new three-week lows. If there is any follow through lower on Monday we will most likely see XLNX hit our stop loss at $31.40. Actually I am concerned that the stock could gap open lower on Monday under our stop.

More aggressive traders may want to widen their stop a little since the 100-dma and exponential 200-dma could offer some support in the $31.30-31.25 zone. However, I suspect that if XLNX hits our stop at $31.40 it's headed for the 50-dma.

Earlier Comments:
The plan was to keep our position size small to limit risk. Our multi-week target is $35.75.

(small positions)

Current Position: Long XLNX stock @ 32.50

- or -

Long Jan $35 call (XLNX1221A35) Entry $0.95

chart:

Entry on November 1 at $32.50
Earnings Date 10/19/11
Average Daily Volume = 5.0 million
Listed on October 29, 2011


BEARISH Play Updates

AFLAC Inc. - AFL - close: 41.96 change: -1.34

Stop Loss: 44.65
Target(s): 37.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 0.3%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/19 update: Friday proved to be a quiet day for AFL with shares hovering near the $42 level the entire session. The stock opened at $42.12 and hit $41.50 at its lowest. Readers could still open positions now or wait for a bounce back toward the $43.00 area as your entry point.

Earlier Comments:
The plan was to keep our position size small to limit risk.

(Small Positions)

current Position: Short AFL stock @ 42.12

- or -

Long DEC $40 PUT (AFL1117x40) Entry $1.52

chart:

Entry on November 18 at $42.12
Earnings Date 02/01/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.3 million
Listed on November 17, 2011


CLOSED BULLISH PLAYS

CEMEX - CX - close: 4.27 change: -0.10

Stop Loss: 4.29
Target(s): 5.10
Current Gain/Loss: - 4.2%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/19 update: CX has continued to slip lower. Shares hit our stop loss at $4.29 on Friday. Readers may want to keep it on their watch list for a bounce from likely support near $4.00 and its 50-dma.

current Position: Long CX stock @ $4.48, exit 4.29 (-

- or -

Jan $5 call (CX1221A5) Entry $0.45, exit 0.33 (-26.6%)

11/18 stopped out at $4.29
11/12 new stop loss @ 4.29, new exit target @ 5.10
11/07 new stop loss @ 4.24
11/05 new stop loss @ 3.97
11/03 CX gapped open to $4.48 (+6.3%)

chart:

Entry on November 3 at $ 4.48
Earnings Date 10/26/11
Average Daily Volume = 20.3 million
Listed on November 2, 2011