Editor's Note:
The market's pull back today hit a couple of stops but it also hit some buy-the-dip triggers.

IMAX and XLNX were stopped out. CSL, R, and FRX were all triggered.

-James

Current Portfolio:


BULLISH Play Updates

Beazer Homes - BZH - close: 2.12 change: +0.03

Stop Loss: 1.90
Target(s): 3.25
Current Gain/Loss: -9.1%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/21 update: This morning the National Association of Realtors said the sale of existing homes in October rose to a 4.97 million unit pace. This is above the estimate for 4.8 million pace. Yet the data failed to have much of an impact on the homebuilders. Shares of BZH turned lower with the market. Shares actually underperformed with a -6.1% drop. BZH hit an intraday low of $1.94 before bouncing back to close near the $2.00 level. I am concerned that if the market's decline continues then we could see BZH hit our stop loss at $1.90 soon.

At this point, given the sour tone on Wall Street, I would wait for BZH to rally past $2.10 before initiating new positions.

current Position: Long BZH stock @ $2.19

- or -

Long 2012 Jan $3.00 call (BZH1221A3) Entry $0.15

11/12 new stop loss @ 1.90. More conservative traders may want to exit prior to the earnings report to lock in a gain.

Entry on October 31 at $2.19
Earnings Date 11/15/11 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.4 million
Listed on October 29, 2011


Casey's General Stores - CASY - close: 50.83 change: -0.19

Stop Loss: 49.40
Target(s): 54.50
Current Gain/Loss: - 0.7%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/21 update: The profit taking in CASY was relatively mild. Shares did briefly violate support at the $50.00 level. More conservative traders may want to raise their stop loss toward today's low at $49.87. The bounce from $50 looks like a new entry point but readers may want to wait for the S&P 500 to rebound before considering new positions.

Keep in mind that CASY is due to report earnings in the next two or three weeks and we will exit ahead of the announcement.

Earlier Comments:
FYI: The Point & Figure chart for CASY is bullish with a $70.00 target.

Current Position: Long CASY stock @ $51.19

- or -

Long DEC $50 call (CASY1117L50) Entry $2.90

11/15 new stop loss @ 49.40
11/12 new stop loss @ 48.75
11/08 new stop loss @ 47.95
11/08 trade opened.

Entry on November 08 at $51.19
Earnings Date 12/06/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 250 thousand
Listed on November 5, 2011


Carlisle Companies - CSL - close: 41.86 change: -1.21

Stop Loss: 39.85
Target(s): 49.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 0.2%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/21 update: Our trade on CSL has been opened. The stock gapped open lower at $42.22 and fell to $41.44 before paring its losses. Our trigger to buy the stock was hit at $41.75. More conservative traders may want to wait for a rally past $43.00 before considering new positions.

Earlier Comments:
We want to keep our position size small to limit our risk on this aggressive entry point.

(small positions)

current Position: Long CSL stock @ $41.75

11/21 trade opened at $41.75
11/19 moved our trigger down to $41.75
11/17 adjusted entry point to trigger @ 42.25, stop loss to $39.85
11/16 adjusted entry point strategy to use a trigger at $45.05

Entry on November 21 at $41.75
Earnings Date 02/07/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 327 thousand
Listed on November 14, 2011


KB Home - KBH - close: 6.98 change: -0.24

Stop Loss: 6.70
Target(s): 9.50
Current Gain/Loss: -7.5%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/21 update: It was a very volatile day for KBH. News that existing home sales in October came in better than expected failed to help the homebuilders. Shares of KBH fell to $6.72 before bouncing. At this point, given the negative sentiment in the market, I would want to see a new rally past $7.25 before considering new bullish positions.

Earlier Comments:
The most recent data listed short interest at more than 50% of the relatively small 65.4 million-share float. That's definitely enough fuel for a significant short squeeze.

KBH can be a volatile stock so we need to use a wide stop loss. This raises the risk profile on this trade. We will aim for $9.50 but the exponential 200-dma might be overhead resistance (currently at 9.10).

current Position: Long KBH stock @ 7.55

- or -

Long Jan $7.50 call (KBH1221A7.5) Entry $0.91

11/11 trade opened at $7.55

Entry on November 11 at $ 7.55
Earnings Date 01/09/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 5.8 million
Listed on November 10, 2011


Kodiak Oil & Gas - KOG - close: 8.01 change: +0.26

Stop Loss: 7.20
Target(s): 9.75
Current Gain/Loss: + 6.6%
Time Frame: two to three months
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/21 update: KOG was showing some relative strength today thanks to some bullish analyst comments and a $10 price target. Over the weekend I suggested readers watch for a dip or a bounce near $7.50 as a new entry point and sure enough that's what the stock provided for the first half of today's session.

Earlier Comments:
Our multi-month target is $9.75. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for KOG is bullish with a $13.75 target. KOG is a potential takeover target.

current Position: Long the stock @ 7.51

- or -

Long 2012 MAR $7.50 call (KOG1217C7.5) Entry $1.25

11/15 gap down at 7.41 and hit 7.21 before bouncing.
11/14 new stop loss @ 7.20
11/14 KOG announces plans to sell an additional 37.5 million shares of new stock
11/08 trade opened at $7.51.

Entry on November 08 at $ 7.51
Earnings Date 03/05/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 6.6 million
Listed on November 5, 2011


Newfield Exploration Co. - NFX - close: 40.78 change: -0.09

Stop Loss: 39.70
Target(s): 43.90
Current Gain/Loss: + 1.3%
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/21 update: By the end of the day NFX managed to reduce today's profit taking to just a few cents. Yet this morning the stock came really close to hitting our stop. The intraday low was $39.76 (stop at $39.70). I don't see any changes from my weekend comments. I would still consider new positions now if both NFX and the S&P 500 open positive tomorrow morning. Our short-term target is $43.90. More aggressive traders could aim higher.

Earlier Comments:
I am suggesting we keep our position size small to limit our risk.

(small positions)

current Position: Long NFX stock @ $40.25

- or -

Long DEC $40 call (NFX1117L40) Entry $2.50

11/18 trade opened at $40.25
11/17 adjusted our entry strategy to buy-the-dip at $40.25, stop loss 39.70
11/16 adjusted entry strategy to use a trigger at $44.25, stop @ 41.95

Entry on November 18 at $40.25
Earnings Date 02/16/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.1 million
Listed on November 12, 2011


Ryder System, Inc. - R - close: 50.11 change: -1.03

Stop Loss: 48.99
Target(s): 54.75
Current Gain/Loss: - 0.0%
Time Frame: 6 to 9 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/21 update: We had a close call with R today. The stock gapped open lower at $50.13 and then dipped to $49.15 before bouncing back to reduce its loss to just -2.0%. We had a trigger at $50.25 so the play was opened first thing this morning. We also have a stop loss at $48.99, which was almost hit. We will leave our stop at $48.99 for now. More aggressive traders may want to give R more room and widen their stop. I would still consider new positions tomorrow if both R and the S&P 500 index open positive.

current Position: Long R stock @ $50.13

- or -

Long 2012 Feb. $55 call (R1202B55) Entry $2.45

11/21 trade opened on R's gap open lower at $50.13
11/17 adjusted our entry point strategy to buy the dip at $50.25 with a stop loss at $48.99
11/16 adjusted entry strategy to use a trigger at $54.05 and a stop at $51.40

Entry on November 21 at $50.13
Earnings Date 02/02/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 727 thousand
Listed on November 15, 2011


Stamps.com - STMP - close: 26.16 change: -1.00

Stop Loss: 24.75
Target(s): 32.50
Current Gain/Loss: unopened
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
11/21 update: Our trade on STMP is not open yet. The market's (and the stock's) gap open lower negated our entry point. Shares opened at $26.46 and fell to $25.50 before settling near $26.00. Depending on your time frame this is either a bearish breakdown from its prior trading range or it's a dip to the longer-term trendline of higher lows.

I remain bullish here and I am suggesting we try again. Open bullish positions tomorrow morning but only if both STMP and the S&P 500 index open positive. We will adjust our stop loss to $24.75.

*See Entry Details Above*

Suggested Position: buy STMP stock @ the open

- or -

buy the Feb $30 call (STMP1218C30) current ask $2.30

11/21 trade not open. try again. Move stop loss to $24.75

Entry on November xx at $ xx.xx
Earnings Date 02/09/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 646 thousand
Listed on November 19, 2011


BEARISH Play Updates

AFLAC Inc. - AFL - close: 41.07 change: -0.91

Stop Loss: 44.05
Target(s): 37.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 2.4%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/21 update: I would be careful with our AFL trade. Shares lost -2.1% but the sharp bounce off its 100-dma almost looks like a short-term bullish reversal. We will lower our stop loss to $44.05. More conservative traders might want to lower their stop even more. I am not suggesting new positions at this time. I would not be surprised to see an oversold bounce back to the $42.50-43.00 zone.

Earlier Comments:
The plan was to keep our position size small to limit risk.

(Small Positions)

current Position: Short AFL stock @ 42.12

- or -

Long DEC $40 PUT (AFL1117x40) Entry $1.52

11/21 new stop loss @ 44.05

Entry on November 18 at $42.12
Earnings Date 02/01/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.3 million
Listed on November 17, 2011


Forest Labs Inc. - FRX - close: 29.01 change: -0.27

Stop Loss: 30.55
Target(s): 25.25
Current Gain/Loss: - 0.2%
Time Frame: 9 to 12 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/21 update: Our new trade on FRX has been opened. Shares gapped open lower at $28.96 and quickly hit our trigger at $28.95. The stock hit a new 52-week low at $28.79 before trimming its losses. I would still consider new positions now or you can wait for an oversold bounce in the $29.00-30.00 zone.

Earlier Comments:
Our multi-week target is $25.25. FRX doesn't move very fast so we have to give it some time. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for FRX is bearish with a $19 target.

NOTE: You may want to trade the options instead of the stock to limit risk. FRX has about 6 or 7 days worth of short interest (approximately 9% of the float). Looking at the chart you can see the super sharp bounces caused by short covering.

current Position: short FRX stock @ 28.95

- or -

Long FEB $30 put (FRX1218N30) Entry $2.25

Entry on November 21 at $28.95
Earnings Date 01/17/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.5 million
Listed on November 19, 2011


CLOSED BULLISH PLAYS

IMAX Corp. - IMAX - close: 18.74 change: -0.69

Stop Loss: 18.20
Target(s): 24.50
Current Gain/Loss: - 6.0%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/21 update: The stock market's sharp move lower today pushed IMAX to an intraday low of $18.17. That's enough to stop us out (stop was $18.20). Readers may want to keep IMAX on their watch list for a breakout past resistance near $20.00.

Current Position: Long IMAX @ $19.38, exit $18.20 (-6.0%)

- or -

DEC $20 call (IMAX1117L20) Entry $1.27 exit $0.25 (-80.3%)

11/21 stopped out at $18.20
11/17 new stop loss @ 18.20

chart:

Entry on November 3 at $19.38
Earnings Date 10/27/11
Average Daily Volume = 1.2 million
Listed on November 2, 2011


Xilinx Inc. - XLNX - close: 31.23 change: -0.24

Stop Loss: 31.40
Target(s): 35.75
Current Gain/Loss: - 4.1%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/21 update: XLNX was already flirting with a breakdown below support. Today's market plunge helped seal the deal. Shares gapped open lower at $31.14, which was well below our stop loss at $31.40.

Earlier Comments:
The plan was to keep our position size small to limit risk.

(small positions)

Current Position: Long XLNX stock @ 32.50, exit 31.14 (-4.1%)

- or -

Jan $35 call (XLNX1221A35) Entry $0.95 exit 0.37 (-61.0%)

11/21 stopped out on XLNX's gap open lower at $31.14, under our stop loss.

chart:

Entry on November 1 at $32.50
Earnings Date 10/19/11
Average Daily Volume = 5.0 million
Listed on October 29, 2011