Editor's Note:
Shares of Ryder System, Inc. (R) underperformed the market today. Our new trade on the stock was stopped out. Meanwhile our plays on AN and HITK are open.

-James

Current Portfolio:


BULLISH Play Updates

AutoNation Inc. - AN - close: 34.83 change: +1.17

Stop Loss: 32.45
Target(s): 39.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 1.1%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/22 update: Our new trade on AN is now open. Shares gapped higher at $34.11 and rallied to $35.05 intraday. AN settled with a +3.4% gain. The big move was fueled by news that Goldman Sachs had upgraded the stock from a "sell" to a "neutral". The breakout past $34.00 is bullish. The stock hit our trigger to open positions at $34.45. I would still consider new positions now or nimble traders could try and buy a dip near $34.00 instead.

Earlier Comments:
Our multi-week target is $39.50. More conservative traders may want to exit in the $37.75 region instead.

current Position: Long AN stock @ $34.45

- or -

Long Jan $35 call (AN1221A35) Entry $1.95

Entry on November 22 at $34.45
Earnings Date 02/02/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.3 million
Listed on November 21, 2011


Beazer Homes - BZH - close: 1.95 change: -0.04

Stop Loss: 1.88
Target(s): 3.25
Current Gain/Loss: -10.9%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/22 update: It's not looking good for our BZH trade. Shares lost another -2% today. If the stock market turns lower again tomorrow we could see BZH hit our stop. Speaking of our stop loss I am suggesting we make a minor tweak and move it from $1.90 to $1.88.

At this point, given the sour tone on Wall Street, I would wait for BZH to rally past $2.10 before initiating new positions.

current Position: Long BZH stock @ $2.19

- or -

Long 2012 Jan $3.00 call (BZH1221A3) Entry $0.15

11/22 adjust stop loss to $1.88
11/12 new stop loss @ 1.90. More conservative traders may want to exit prior to the earnings report to lock in a gain.

Entry on October 31 at $2.19
Earnings Date 11/15/11 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.4 million
Listed on October 29, 2011


Casey's General Stores - CASY - close: 50.35 change: -0.48

Stop Loss: 49.40
Target(s): 54.50
Current Gain/Loss: - 1.6%
Time Frame: up to its earnings report.
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/22 update: Hmm... CASY intraday rally failed at its 10-dma and the stock underperformed the major indices with a -0.9% decline. That doesn't bode well. The stock is still trading above $50.00 but I am not suggesting new positions at this time. More conservative traders might want to inch up their stop loss closer to the $49.85 level.

Keep in mind that CASY is due to report earnings in the next two or three weeks and we will exit ahead of the announcement.

Earlier Comments:
FYI: The Point & Figure chart for CASY is bullish with a $70.00 target.

Current Position: Long CASY stock @ $51.19

- or -

Long DEC $50 call (CASY1117L50) Entry $2.90

11/15 new stop loss @ 49.40
11/12 new stop loss @ 48.75
11/08 new stop loss @ 47.95
11/08 trade opened.

Entry on November 08 at $51.19
Earnings Date 12/06/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 250 thousand
Listed on November 5, 2011


Carlisle Companies - CSL - close: 42.06 change: +0.20

Stop Loss: 39.85
Target(s): 49.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 0.7%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/22 update: Today looked a lot like yesterday with CSL churning sideways in a narrow range on light volume. The stock did manage to outperform the S&P 500 with a +0.4% gain.

More conservative traders may want to wait for a rally past $43.00 before considering new positions.

Earlier Comments:
We want to keep our position size small to limit our risk on this aggressive entry point.

(small positions)

current Position: Long CSL stock @ $41.75

11/21 trade opened at $41.75
11/19 moved our trigger down to $41.75
11/17 adjusted entry point to trigger @ 42.25, stop loss to $39.85
11/16 adjusted entry point strategy to use a trigger at $45.05

Entry on November 21 at $41.75
Earnings Date 02/07/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 327 thousand
Listed on November 14, 2011


Hi Tech Pharmacal Co. - HITK - close: 39.23 change: +1.51

Stop Loss: 35.80
Target(s): 44.00
Current Gain/Loss: + 3.6%
Time Frame: 2 to 3 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/22 update: Our new trade on HITK is now open. The stock gapped higher at $37.84 and rallied to $39.60 intraday before settling with a +4.0% gain. I didn't see any specific news behind the rally but I warned readers that HITK could see a short squeeze, which is what the morning rally looked like. If you missed the entry this morning then I would wait for a dip near $38.00 as a new entry point.

Earlier Comments:
The stock could see a short squeeze. The most recent data listed short interest at 14% of the very small 9.9 million-share float. The $40.00 level might be resistance but if HITK does see a short squeeze I am expecting a much bigger move. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for HITK is bullish with a $58.00 target. NOTE: We do not want to hold over the December earnings report so we only have two or three weeks.

current Position: Long HITK stock @ $37.84

- or -

Long DEC $40 call (HITK1117L40) Entry $1.65

Entry on November 22 at $37.84
Earnings Date 12/08/11 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 180 thousand
Listed on November 21, 2011


KB Home - KBH - close: 7.08 change: +0.10

Stop Loss: 6.70
Target(s): 9.50
Current Gain/Loss: -6.2%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/22 update: The relative strength in KBH today was encouraging. Furthermore the stock rebounded off its 50-dma. It almost looks like a mini double bottom near the $6.73 mark. I remain cautious on launching new positions. I'd rather see KBH trade past $7.25 before considering new bullish positions.

Earlier Comments:
The most recent data listed short interest at more than 50% of the relatively small 65.4 million-share float. That's definitely enough fuel for a significant short squeeze.

KBH can be a volatile stock so we need to use a wide stop loss. This raises the risk profile on this trade. We will aim for $9.50 but the exponential 200-dma might be overhead resistance (currently at 9.10).

current Position: Long KBH stock @ 7.55

- or -

Long Jan $7.50 call (KBH1221A7.5) Entry $0.91

11/11 trade opened at $7.55

Entry on November 11 at $ 7.55
Earnings Date 01/09/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 5.8 million
Listed on November 10, 2011


Kodiak Oil & Gas - KOG - close: 7.99 change: -0.02

Stop Loss: 7.20
Target(s): 9.75
Current Gain/Loss: + 6.3%
Time Frame: two to three months
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/22 update: Today was a nonevent for KOG. Shares spent the session drifting sideways near the $8.00 level. I am not suggesting new positions at this time. More conservative traders might want to consider raising their stops closer to the $7.40 level.

Earlier Comments:
Our multi-month target is $9.75. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for KOG is bullish with a $13.75 target. KOG is a potential takeover target.

current Position: Long the stock @ 7.51

- or -

Long 2012 MAR $7.50 call (KOG1217C7.5) Entry $1.25

11/15 gap down at 7.41 and hit 7.21 before bouncing.
11/14 new stop loss @ 7.20
11/14 KOG announces plans to sell an additional 37.5 million shares of new stock
11/08 trade opened at $7.51.

Entry on November 08 at $ 7.51
Earnings Date 03/05/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 6.6 million
Listed on November 5, 2011


Newfield Exploration Co. - NFX - close: 39.99 change: -0.79

Stop Loss: 39.70
Target(s): 43.90
Current Gain/Loss: - 0.6%
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/22 update: Uh-oh! The action in NFX today is bearish. Shares lost -1.9%, underperforming the major indices and the oil sector. Plus the close under $40.00 is bearish. We have a stop loss at $39.70, which could easily be hit tomorrow if the market declines again. Aggressive traders might want to consider new bearish positions if NFX trades under $39.50 and target a drop toward the $37-35 zone.

Earlier Comments:
I am suggesting we keep our position size small to limit our risk.

(small positions)

current Position: Long NFX stock @ $40.25

- or -

Long DEC $40 call (NFX1117L40) Entry $2.50

11/18 trade opened at $40.25
11/17 adjusted our entry strategy to buy-the-dip at $40.25, stop loss 39.70
11/16 adjusted entry strategy to use a trigger at $44.25, stop @ 41.95

Entry on November 18 at $40.25
Earnings Date 02/16/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.1 million
Listed on November 12, 2011


Stamps.com - STMP - close: 27.03 change: +0.87

Stop Loss: 24.75
Target(s): 32.50
Current Gain/Loss: unopened
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
11/22 update: STMP outperformed the market today with a +3.3% gain. Unfortunately our trade wasn't triggered. Shares of STMP opened one cent lower and then rallied sharply to hit $27.88 before paring its gains.

I remain bullish on STMP and suggest we try again. Open bullish positions tomorrow morning but only if both STMP and the S&P 500 index open positive (if the S&P500 opens flat then we'll go off of STMP's open alone).

*See Entry Details Above*

Suggested Position: buy STMP stock @ the open

- or -

buy the Feb $30 call (STMP1218C30)

11/22 trade did not open. STMP opened lower by one cent.
11/21 trade not open. try again. Move stop loss to $24.75

Entry on November xx at $ xx.xx
Earnings Date 02/09/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 646 thousand
Listed on November 19, 2011


BEARISH Play Updates

AFLAC Inc. - AFL - close: 41.01 change: -0.06

Stop Loss: 44.05
Target(s): 37.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 2.6%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/22 update: Hmm... once again I am urging caution here. AFL was downgraded this morning. This caused the spike lower to $39.67. Yet AFL managed a sharp recovery and closed almost unchanged on the session. This bounce back from under support near $40.00, its 50-dma and its 100-dma is potentially bullish.

I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
The plan was to keep our position size small to limit risk.

(Small Positions)

current Position: Short AFL stock @ 42.12

- or -

Long DEC $40 PUT (AFL1117x40) Entry $1.52

11/21 new stop loss @ 44.05

Entry on November 18 at $42.12
Earnings Date 02/01/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.3 million
Listed on November 17, 2011


Forest Labs Inc. - FRX - close: 29.23 change: +0.22

Stop Loss: 30.55
Target(s): 25.25
Current Gain/Loss: - 0.9%
Time Frame: 9 to 12 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/22 update: FRX recovered most of yesterday's decline with a +0.75% gain. It is worth noting that the rally today struggled with resistance near $29.50. Yesterday I suggested readers look for an oversold bounce into the $29.00-30.00 zone as a new entry point and we got it today.

Earlier Comments:
Our multi-week target is $25.25. FRX doesn't move very fast so we have to give it some time. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for FRX is bearish with a $19 target.

NOTE: You may want to trade the options instead of the stock to limit risk. FRX has about 6 or 7 days worth of short interest (approximately 9% of the float). Looking at the chart you can see the super sharp bounces caused by short covering.

current Position: short FRX stock @ 28.95

- or -

Long FEB $30 put (FRX1218N30) Entry $2.25

Entry on November 21 at $28.95
Earnings Date 01/17/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.5 million
Listed on November 19, 2011


CLOSED BULLISH PLAYS

Ryder System, Inc. - R - close: 49.15 change: -0.96

Stop Loss: 48.99
Target(s): 54.75
Current Gain/Loss: - 2.2%
Time Frame: 6 to 9 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
11/22 update: Our new trade on R did not pan out. Shares displayed relative weakness with a -1.9% decline. The intraday bounce failed near the $50 level and shares hit our stop loss at $48.99 intraday. The wide spreads on R's call hurt us.

closed Position: Long R stock @ $50.13, exit $48.99 (- 2.2%)

- or -

2012 Feb. $55 call (R1202B55) Entry $2.45, exit $1.50*(-38.7%)

11/22 stopped out at $48.99
*option did not trade today. this is an estimate
11/21 trade opened on R's gap open lower at $50.13
11/17 adjusted our entry point strategy to buy the dip at $50.25 with a stop loss at $48.99
11/16 adjusted entry strategy to use a trigger at $54.05 and a stop at $51.40

chart:

Entry on November 21 at $50.13
Earnings Date 02/02/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 727 thousand
Listed on November 15, 2011