Editor's Note:
Shares of BRCM broke down to new 52-week lows with a -3.6% drop today. Readers may want to start thinking about taking profits in this bearish trade.

Our AMCN trade was triggered. KOG was stopped out. We have removed FSYS and PJC from the newsletter.

-James

Current Portfolio:


BULLISH Play Updates

AirMedia Group Inc. - AMCN - close: 3.71 change: +0.10

Stop Loss: 3.30
Target(s): 4.90
Current Gain/Loss: + 0.2%
Time Frame: 8 to 10 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
12/13 update: We didn't have to wait very long for AMCN to hit our trigger thanks to news out this morning that the company was raising its revenue guidance. The stock opened at $3.65, rallied to $3.91 and then pared its gains to settle with a +2.7% advance. Our trigger was hit at $3.70.

If the S&P 500 opens positive tomorrow I would consider new positions in AMCN at current levels.

Let's keep our position size small to limit our risk.

(small positions)

current Position: long AMCN stock @ 3.70

Entry on December 13 at $3.70
Earnings Date 03/05/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 170 thousand
Listed on December 12, 2011


AutoNation Inc. - AN - close: 35.79 change: -0.99

Stop Loss: 34.75
Target(s): 39.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 3.8%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
12/13 update: Ouch! AN underperformed today with a -2.7% decline. Furthermore today's move looks like a bearish engulfing candlestick reversal pattern. More conservative traders may want to exit early or raise their stop near the $35.50 area. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
Our multi-week target is $39.50. More conservative traders may want to exit in the $37.75 region instead.

current Position: Long AN stock @ $34.45

- or -

Long Jan $35 call (AN1221A35) Entry $1.95

12/03/11 new stop loss @ 34.75
11/30/11 new stop loss @ 33.45

Entry on November 22 at $34.45
Earnings Date 02/02/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.3 million
Listed on November 21, 2011


Activision Blizzard, Inc. - ATVI - close: 11.98 change: -0.14

Stop Loss: 11.69
Target(s): 13.45
Current Gain/Loss: - 2.6%
Time Frame: 4 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
12/13 update: ATVI has also reversed lower. Shares are hovering near support at $12.00 and its exponential 200-dma and simple 150-dma. A breakdown here probably means a drop toward the simple 200-dma near $11.75. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

current Position: Long ATVI stock @ $12.30

- or -

Long FEB $13 call (ATVI1218B13) Entry $0.42

12/10/11 new stop loss @ 11.69
11/30/11 trade open. ATVI gaps higher at $12.30
11/29/11 ATVI gapped open lower. Trade not open yet.

Entry on November 30 at $12.30
Earnings Date 02/09/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 14.9 million
Listed on November 28, 2011


Brocade Communications - BRCD - close: 5.44 change: -0.08

Stop Loss: 5.25
Target(s): 6.45
Current Gain/Loss: + 3.6%
Time Frame: 8 to 12 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
12/13 update: BRCD hit new four-month highs with the rally to $5.66 this morning. Unfortunately the stock couldn't hold these gains and settled near support around the $5.40 area. More conservative traders may want to take profits now or raise their stop loss. Please note we are raising our stop loss to $5.25. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
Keep in mind that the simple 200-dma near $5.40 could still be technical resistance. I expect this trade to take many weeks to play out but we're aiming for $6.75. We'll make adjustments to our exit strategy as needed.

current Position: Long BRCD stock @ $5.25

- or -

Long 2012JAN $5.50 call (BRCD1221A5.5) Entry $0.37

12/13/11 new stop loss @ 5.25
12/12/11 new stop loss @ 5.17
12/10/11 new stop loss @ 5.12
12/05/11 new stop loss @ 4.98
12/03/11 new stop loss @ 4.84

Entry on November 28 at $5.25
Earnings Date 02/16/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 8.6 million
Listed on November 26, 2011


Trinity Industries - TRN - close: 27.84 change: -0.95

Stop Loss: 28.75
Target(s): 34.75
Current Gain/Loss: unopened
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
12/13 update: It was an ugly day for TRN. The stock underperformed the market and its industry with a -3.2% drop today. I am not quite ready to give up on TRN just yet. We are still sitting on the sidelines waiting for TRN to breakout past resistance. If TRN doesn't see some kind of bounce tomorrow we'll drop it. Currently I am suggesting we use a trigger to open bullish positions at $30.55. If triggered we'll aim for $34.75. More aggressive traders could aim higher.

Trigger @ $30.55

Suggested Position: buy TRN stock @ 30.55

- or -

buy the Jan $30 call (TRN1221A30)

Entry on December xx at $ xx.xx
Earnings Date 02/15/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 703 thousand
Listed on December 10, 2011


BEARISH Play Updates

Broadcom Corp. - BRCM - close: 28.19 change: -1.08

Stop Loss: 30.55
Target(s): 26.00
Current Gain/Loss: + 7.6%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
12/13 update: BRCM is finally starting to break down again after more than a week of consolidating sideways. Shares lost -3.6% today and closed at new 52-week lows. I am lowering our stop loss to $30.55.

Earlier Comments:
Readers may want to consider an early exit soon. BRCM is scheduled to hold their "analyst day" on December 14th. Conservative traders might want to exit prior to this event to avoid any unnecessary headline risk.

Our target is $26.00 although more aggressive traders could aim lower. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for BRCM is bearish with a $21.00 target.

Suggested Position: short BRCM stock @ $30.53

- or -

Long 2012Jan $28 PUT (BRCM1221M28) Entry $0.88

12/13/11 new stop loss @ 30.55
12/12/11 new stop loss @ 31.20
12/05/11 BRCM gapped open higher at $30.53.

Entry on December 05 at $ 30.53
Earnings Date --/--/-- (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 8.2 million
Listed on December 03, 2011


Ctrip.com Intl. - CTRP - close: 23.61 change: +0.37

Stop Loss: 25.05
Target(s): 20.25
Current Gain/Loss: - 2.6%
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
12/13 update: Warning! CTRP has displayed relative strength for the second day in a row. The bounce did stall near short-term resistance at $24.00 but I am not suggesting new bearish positions at this time. More conservative traders may want to lower their stops closer to today's high (24.11).

Earlier Comments:
I do consider this an aggressive trade because CTRP is arguably still short-term oversold here six-days of losses (prior to Friday's bounce). We will use a stop loss at $25.05. You may want to use a tighter stop loss. We are aiming for $20.25. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for CTRP is bearish with a $9.00 target. Note: We want to keep our position size small to limit our risk. CTRP can be a volatile stock and short interest is nearing 10% of the float.

*Small Positions*

current Position: short CTRP stock @ 23.00

- or -

Long 2012Jan $22.50 PUT (CTRP1221M22.5) entry $1.40

12/13/11 readers may want to exit early. CTRP is not cooperating.
12/12/11 CTRP gapped open lower @ 23.00

Entry on December 12 at $23.00
Earnings Date 02/13/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 5.2 million
Listed on December 10, 2011


PACCAR Inc. - PCAR - close: 37.60 change: -1.08

Stop Loss: 40.55
Target(s): 32.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 3.8%
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
12/13 update: PCAR underperformed the market with a -2.8% decline. More conservative traders might want to inch down their stop loss. Don't be surprised if PCAR bounces near the November lows around $36.85. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
More aggressive traders could place their stop above $41.30 instead. There is possible support near $36.75, near its November low, but we're aiming for $32.50.

(Small Positions)

current Position: short PCAR stock @ $39.11

- or -

Long 2012Jan $36 PUT (PCAR1221M36) Entry $0.80

Entry on December 09 at $39.11
Earnings Date 02/01/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.7 million
Listed on December 08, 2011


AT&T Inc. - T - close: 29.04 change: +0.03

Stop Loss: 30.05
Target(s): 24.25 or 22.75
Current Gain/Loss: + 1.2%
Time Frame: 6 to 9 weeks or more
New Positions: see below

Comments:
12/13 update: Hmm.... shares of AT&T are ignoring the market's recent weakness. That's a good sign if you're bullish, not so great if you're short the stock. I am not suggesting new positions at this time. More conservative traders may want to consider a stop loss near the $29.60 area.

current Position: short T stock @ 29.40

- or -

Long 2012Jan $27.50 PUT (T1221M27.5) Entry $0.31

- or -

Long Mar $26 PUT (T1217O26) Entry $0.42

Entry on December 07 at $29.40
Earnings Date 01/26/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 23.4 million
Listed on November 26, 2011


CLOSED BULLISH PLAYS

Fuel Systems Solutions, Inc. - FSYS - close: 16.20 change: -1.31

Stop Loss: 16.85
Target(s): 20.50
Current Gain/Loss: unopened
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
12/13 update: FSYS underperformed the market today with a -7.5% decline. Shares closed at new multi-year lows. Aggressive traders might want to consider opening bearish positions although I suspect the $15.00 level might offer some support.

Our bullish trade never opened and after today's move we are dropping FSYS from the newsletter.

Trigger @ 18.10 (small positions)

Trade Did Not Open

12/13/11 removing FSYS from the newsletter, trade did not open
12/10/11 adjust strategy to use a trigger at $18.10

chart:

Entry on December xx at $ xx.xx
Earnings Date 03/05/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 282 thousand
Listed on December 06, 2011


Kodiak Oil & Gas - KOG - close: 8.53 change: -0.35

Stop Loss: 8.45
Target(s): 9.45
Current Gain/Loss: +12.5%
Time Frame: two to three months
New Positions: see below

Comments:
12/13 update: Our KOG trade has been closed. The stock's early morning rally reversed and shares fell toward support near $8.50. Unfortunately the stock tagged the $8.45 mark before trying to bounce. Our stop loss happened to be at $8.45.

closed Position: Long the stock @ 7.51, exit $8.45 (+12.5%)

12/13 stopped out at $8.45 (+12.5%)
12/10 new stop loss @ 8.45
12/05 KOG gapped higher at $9.13. Exit on the March $7.50 calls at $2.15 (+72%)
12/05 new stop loss @ 8.20
12/03 plan to exit our March $7.50 calls @ Monday's open (currently +60%)
12/01 Readers may want to exit now to lock in a gain (+18.3%). I am adjusting our exit target to $9.45
11/30 new stop loss @ 7.75
11/28 new stop loss @ 7.49
11/23 new stop loss @ 7.38
11/15 gap down at 7.41 and hit 7.21 before bouncing.
11/14 new stop loss @ 7.20
11/14 KOG announces plans to sell an additional 37.5 million shares of new stock
11/08 trade opened at $7.51.

chart:

Entry on November 08 at $ 7.51
Earnings Date 03/05/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 6.6 million
Listed on November 5, 2011


Piper Jaffray Companies - PJC - close: 20.12 change: -0.50

Stop Loss: 20.75
Target(s): 25.75
Current Gain/Loss: unopened
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
12/13 update: PJC posted another loss. Shares dipped toward their simple 5-dma near $19.90 this afternoon. Our plan was to open bullish positions at $22.55 but that may not happen any time soon. We are dropping PJC from the newsletter with the trade unopened.

Trigger @ 22.55 (small positions)

Trade did not open.

12/13/11 removing PJC from the newsletter.

chart:

Entry on December xx at $ xx.xx
Earnings Date 01/25/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 207 thousand
Listed on December 07, 2011