Editor's Note:
The U.S. markets extended their gains to three weeks in a row. Meanwhile Starbucks (SBUX) marched to another new high.

Our DIS trade is not open yet. Our HOG trade has been closed as planned.

UPDATE: The Greece/PSI negotiations over the weekend appear to have broken down. This is definitely a negative since so many were expecting a resolution with private sector investors (PSI) over the details of the Greek debt haircut by Monday. Monday morning could see a spike downward. We'll have to wait and see if there are any new headlines produced on Sunday.

Current Portfolio:


BULLISH Play Updates

Ball Corp. - BLL - close: 37.91 change: -0.24

Stop Loss: 39.00
Target(s): 36.65
Current Gain/Loss: + 3.7%
Time Frame: up to the earnings report (01/26)
New Positions: see below

Comments:
01/21 update: BLL is up four out of the last five weeks. Shares saw a little profit taking on Friday. Readers may want to start exiting now. We only have a few days left. The plan is to exit at $39.00 or prior to the earnings report on Jan. 26th. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

current Position: Long BLL stock @ 36.55

- or -

Long Feb $35 call (BLL1221A35) entry 2.30

01/21/12 remember, we want to exit prior to earnings on 01/26
01/18/12 new stop loss @ 36.65
01/12/12 new stop loss @ 36.25
01/11/12 new stop loss @ 35.75
01/06/12 trade triggered at $36.55
01/05/12 adjusted stop loss to $35.35, plan to exit prior to earnings

chart:

Entry on January 06 at $36.55
Earnings Date 01/26/12 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 985 thousand
Listed on January 03, 2011


BioMarin Pharmaceuticals - BMRN - close: 35.20 change: -0.54

Stop Loss: 34.75
Target(s): 39.50
Current Gain/Loss: unopened
Time Frame: 3 to 4 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
01/21 update: If BMRN doesn't show some strength soon we're going to drop it. Shares underperformed the market on Friday with a -1.5% decline. Currently our plan is to open small bullish positions when BMRN trades at $36.20 or higher. Please note I am raising our stop loss to $34.75.

Earlier Comments:
We want to keep our position size small to limit our risk. Our target is $39.50. We want to exit prior to the earnings report in mid February. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for BMRN is bullish with a $47.50 target.

NOTE: BMRN does have options but the spreads are too wide to trade.

Trigger @ 36.20, stop loss 34.75 (small positions)

Suggested Position: buy BMRN stock @ $36.20

01/21/12 new stop loss @ 34.75, still waiting for a breakout.
01/19/12 trade did not open. Adjust entry to use a trigger at $36.20, new stop loss at $34.20
01/18/12 trade did not open. try again.

chart:

Entry on January xx at $ xx.xx
Earnings Date 02/16/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 839 thousand
Listed on January 17, 2011


Cisco Systems Inc. - CSCO - close: 19.92 change: +0.13

Stop Loss: 18.60
Target(s): 20.75
Current Gain/Loss: + 2.8%
Time Frame: up to CSCO's February earnings
New Positions: see below

Comments:
01/21 update: It was a bullish week for CSCO with shares up four days in a row. The stock is nearing what could be round-number, psychological resistance at the $20.00 level. Don't be surprised to see some profit taking soon. I am not suggesting new positions at this time but look for short-term support near the 10-dma.

Earlier Comments:
We want to ride the stock up to its early February earnings report but exit prior to the announcement. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for CSCO is bullish with a long-term $27.00 target.

Long Position: Long CSCO stock @ 19.37

- or -

Long Feb $20 call (CSCO1218B20) Entry $0.43

01/18/12 trade opened on gap higher at $19.37

chart:

Entry on January 18 at $19.37
Earnings Date 02/08/12 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 39.0 million
Listed on January 12, 2011


Walt Disney Company - DIS - close: 39.31 change: -0.13

Stop Loss: 37.90
Target(s): 42.50
Current Gain/Loss: unopened
Time Frame: up to earnings on Feb. 7th
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
01/21 update: Our trade on DIS is not open yet. The stock opened lower and spent Friday consolidating sideways in a narrow range. I don't see any changes from my Thursday night comments so I'm suggesting we try again.

The plan is to open bullish positions on Monday morning but only if both DIS and the S&P 500 index open positive. Our bullish target might be a little optimistic given our time frame. We do not want to hold over DIS' earnings report on Jan 7th. Speaking of targets, we are aiming for $42.50 but the Point & Figure chart for DIS is bullish with a long-term $53 target.

*See Entry Details Above* (Small Positions)

Suggested Position: buy DIS stock @ the open

- or -

buy the Feb $40 call (DIS1218B40)

01/21/12 trade not open yet. try again.

chart:

Entry on January xx at $ xx.xx
Earnings Date 02/07/12 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 7.7 million
Listed on January 19, 2011


Human Genome Sciences - HGSI - close: 8.93 change: -0.12

Stop Loss: 8.30
Target(s): 11.00
Current Gain/Loss: - 1.4%
Time Frame: 3 to 4 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
01/21 update: HGSI has not made much progress the last couple of days with Friday's decline erasing Thursday's gain. Shares are still digesting the big rally from January 11th. At this point I would be tempted to wait for a dip into the $8.75-8.50 area, focusing on potential support at the 10-dma near $8.65. As an alternative you could wait for a rally past $9.30 as a bullish entry point.

Keep in mind this is an aggressive trade and HGSI can be a volatile stock.

Our target is $11.00 but readers should note that the $10.00 level and the simple 100-dma could act as overhead resistance. I am suggesting we keep our position size small to limit our risk.

(small positions)

current Position: Long HGSI stock @ $9.06

- or -

Long Feb $10 call (HGSI1218B10) Entry $0.59

01/19/12 HGSI gapped open higher at $9.06 on a new "buy" rating

chart:

Entry on January 19 at $9.06
Earnings Date 02/23/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 7.1 million
Listed on January 18, 2011


SAIC, Inc. - SAI - close: 13.00 change: -0.26

Stop Loss: 12.74
Target(s): 14.50
Current Gain/Loss: - 0.7%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
01/21 update: The nearest strike price was $13.00 and SAI made a bee-line for the $13.00 level thanks to option expiration. Traders did buy the dip near its rising 10-dma. I would consider new positions here if both SAI and the S&P 500 open positive on Monday.

Earlier Comments:
Our target is $14.50 but I have to warn you that I see potential resistance near $13.50, and the 150-dma, the exponential 200-dma and the simple 200-dma.

(Small Positions)

Suggested Position: long SAI stock @ $13.10

- or -

Long Feb $12 call (SAI1218B12) Entry $1.30

chart:

Entry on January 17 at $13.10
Earnings Date 03/22/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.7 million
Listed on January 14, 2011


Starbucks Corp. - SBUX - close: 48.15 change: +0.13

Stop Loss: 46.75
Target(s): 49.00
Current Gain/Loss: + 4.4%
Time Frame: up to the January earnings report.
New Positions: see below

Comments:
01/21 update: We only have four days left for this trade. The plan is to exit prior to the earnings report on Jan. 26th, after the closing bell. I am optimistic given the trading action in SBUX on Friday. Our exit price is $49.00 but more aggressive traders may want to aim higher. We are raising our stop loss to $46.75.

current Position: long SBUX stock @ $46.08

- or -

Long FEB $47 call (SBUX1218B47) entry $1.56

01/21/12 new stop loss @ 46.75
01/19/12 Readers may want to take profits now!
01/18/12 new stop loss $ 46.40, adjust exit to $49.00
01/17/12 new stop loss @ 45.95
01/14/12 new stop loss @ 45.75, plan to exit prior to earnings
01/12/12 new stop loss @ 44.90
01/11/12 new stop loss @ 44.60
01/07/12 new stop loss @ 43.95

chart:

Entry on December 29 at $46.08
Earnings Date 01/26/12 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 5.1 million
Listed on December 28, 2011


Smith & Wesson Holding Corp. - SWHC - close: 4.74 change: -0.07

Stop Loss: 4.45
Target(s): 5.65 or 6.40
Current Gain/Loss: - 1.8%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
01/21 update: The firearm industry just had a record-setting year but short-term it looks like the rally in SWHC (and RGR) might be a little tired. At least that's the impression I'm getting with the lack or progress these last two days. Nimble traders might want to consider buying a dip or a bounce near $4.65-4.60.

Earlier Comments:
I do consider this a very aggressive trade and we want to keep our position size small. The $5.00 level could be resistance but we're going to aim higher. I am setting two different targets depending on your risk tolerance. I'd aim for $5.65 or $6.40. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for SWHC is bullish with a long-term $9.50 target.

(Small Positions)

Suggested Position: long SWHC stock @ $4.83

chart:

Entry on January 17 at $4.83
Earnings Date 03/12/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 962 thousand
Listed on January 14, 2011


Textainer Group Holdings - TGH - close: 31.34 change: +0.11

Stop Loss: 29.40
Target(s): 34.00
Current Gain/Loss: + 2.4%
Time Frame: 3 to 4 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
01/21 update: TGH posted another gain on Friday but I suspect the stock could see a little pull back on Monday. Of course that might depend on how the market's major indices perform on Monday. I would wait for a dip or a bounce in the $30.50 area before considering new positions.

Earlier Comments:
A breakout could spark some short covering. The most recent data listed short interest at 11% of the very small 12.8 million share float. That raises the risk of a short squeeze. Plus, TGH should appeal to the high-yield crowd since shares sport a 4.7% yield. NOTE: TGH does have options but the spreads are a little wide.

current Position: Long TGH stock @ 30.60

01/19/12 new stop loss @ 29.40
01/13/12 TGH hit our trigger at $30.60 and reversed in less than one second. I am suggesting caution here.

chart:

Entry on January 13 at $30.60
Earnings Date 02/09/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 172 thousand
Listed on January 11, 2011


BEARISH Play Updates

C&J Energy Services, Inc. - CJES - close: 17.52 change: -0.22

Stop Loss: 19.75
Target(s): 15.00
Current Gain/Loss: + 1.5%
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks, exit prior to earnings
New Positions: see below

Comments:
01/21 update: CJES continues to underperform the market. The stock tried to bounce on Friday morning but reversed at $18.24. I am still a little cautious launching new positions given the broader market's strength but the trend in CJES is definitely down. The stock looks like it might have overhead resistance near $19.00 and its 10-dma (near 19.15).

Earlier Comments:
Our target is $15.00. We do want to keep our position size small to limit our risk. The most recent data listed short interest at about 15% of the small 35.9 million-share float. That does raise the risk of a short squeeze. You may want to use put options to limit your risk instead of shorting the stock. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for CJES is bearish with a $12.00 target.

(small positions)

Current Position: short CJES stock @ 17.80

- or -

Long Feb $17.50 put (CJES1218N17.5) Entry $0.98

chart:

Entry on January 18 at $17.80
Earnings Date 02/15/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 923 thousand
Listed on January 17, 2011


CLOSED BULLISH PLAYS

Harley-Davidson - HOG - close: 41.96 change: -0.09

Stop Loss: 40.99
Target(s): 44.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 3.9%
Time Frame: up to the earnings report Jan. 24th
New Positions: see below

Comments:
01/21 update: HOG has been going nowhere with the last three session churning sideways. That's a bit worrisome with the market in rally mode and the S&P 500 breaking out past resistance. On Thursday we altered our plan to exit this position at the close on Friday.

closed Position: long HOG stock @ 40.35, exit $41.96 (+3.99%)

- or -

Feb $40 call (HOG1221B40) entry $2.06 exit $2.87 (+39.3%)

01/20/12 planned exit at the close
01/19/12 prepare to exit tomorrow (Jan 20th) at the closing bell.
01/19/12 new stop loss @ 40.99
01/14/12 new stop loss @ 39.40. There is potential resistance in the $43.00-43.25 area.

chart:

Entry on January 10 at $40.35
Earnings Date 01/24/12 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.5 million
Listed on January 05, 2011