Editor's Note:
We closed three trades today (BLL, SAI, CJES). One bullish candidate was triggered (DIS).

Current Portfolio:


BULLISH Play Updates

Autodesk, Inc. - ADSK - close: 35.81 change: +1.15

Stop Loss: 34.75
Target(s): 39.90
Current Gain/Loss: unopened
Time Frame: up to the late Feb. earnings report
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
01/25 update: ADSK continues to creep higher but shares have not hit our trigger yet. I am suggesting we use a trigger at $36.50 to open bullish positions with a stop at $34.75. Our target is $39.90 but more aggressive traders could definitely aim higher. We do not want to hold over the late February earnings report. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for ADSK is bullish with a long-term $49.00 target.

Trigger to open positions @ 36.50

Suggested Position: buy ADSK stock @ 36.50

- or -

buy the Feb $37 call (ADSK1218B37)

Entry on January xx at $ xx.xx
Earnings Date 02/23/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.5 million
Listed on January 24, 2011


Cisco Systems Inc. - CSCO - close: 19.83 change: +0.02

Stop Loss: 18.95
Target(s): 21.75
Current Gain/Loss: + 2.3%
Time Frame: up to CSCO's February earnings
New Positions: see below

Comments:
01/25 update: It was a quiet day for CSCO. Shares dipped to and bounced from its simple 10-dma to close virtually unchanged on the session.

Earlier Comments:
We want to ride the stock up to its early February earnings report but exit prior to the announcement. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for CSCO is bullish with a long-term $27.00 target.

Long Position: Long CSCO stock @ 19.37

- or -

Long Feb $20 call (CSCO1218B20) Entry $0.43

01/24/12 new stop loss @ 18.95, target adjusted to $21.75
01/18/12 trade opened on gap higher at $19.37

Entry on January 18 at $19.37
Earnings Date 02/08/12 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 39.0 million
Listed on January 12, 2011


Walt Disney Company - DIS - close: 39.25 change: -0.00

Stop Loss: 37.90
Target(s): 42.50
Current Gain/Loss: - 0.1%
Time Frame: up to earnings on Feb. 7th
New Positions: see below

Comments:
01/25 update: The stock market's afternoon rally following the FOMC announcement was strong enough to lift DIS to our trigger. The plan was to open bullish positions at $39.60. I do want to point out that the rally stalled twice near $39.70. This looks like a very short-term bearish double top. I wouldn't be surprised to see DIS dip tomorrow morning.

Earlier Comments:
Our bullish target might be a little optimistic given our time frame. We do not want to hold over DIS' earnings report on Feb 7th. Speaking of targets, we are aiming for $42.50 but the Point & Figure chart for DIS is bullish with a long-term $53 target.

(Small Positions)

Suggested Position: Long DIS stock @ 39.60

- or -

Long Feb $40 call (DIS1218B40) Entry $0.87

01/23/12 adjusted strategy. Use trigger @ 39.60
01/21/12 trade not open yet. try again.

Entry on January xx at $ xx.xx
Earnings Date 02/07/12 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 7.7 million
Listed on January 19, 2011


Gulfport Energy - GPOR - close: 33.95 change: +0.65

Stop Loss: 31.40
Target(s): 37.00
Current Gain/Loss: unopened
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
01/25 update: Hmm... our entry point strategy didn't pan out for us today. GPOR opened higher but the S&P 500 did not. Thus our trade did not open. Shares of GPOR outperformed with a +1.9% gain. I am suggesting we try again. Open small bullish positions at the open but only if both GPOR and the S&P 500 open positive. We'll use a stop loss at $31.40. Our target is $37.00 but keep an eye on the $35.00 level, which could be resistance.

Do not enter position unless GPOR and the S&P500 are both positive at the open

Suggested Position: buy GPOR stock @ the open

- or -

buy the FEB $35 call (GPOR1218B35)

01/25/12 trade did not open. try again.
01/24/12 trade did not open. try again.

Entry on January xx at $ xx.xx
Earnings Date 03/12/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 522 thousand
Listed on January 23, 2011


Human Genome Sciences - HGSI - close: 9.92 change: +0.79

Stop Loss: 8.30
Target(s): 11.00
Current Gain/Loss: + 9.4%
Time Frame: 3 to 4 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
01/25 update: It was a big day for HGSI. Shares spiked higher at the open and sprinted to round-number resistance at the $10.00 mark. Traders bought the dip midday near $9.50 and HGSI rallied again to test the $10 area again. More conservative traders may want to go ahead and take profits now. The $10.00 level and the simple 100-dma could prove to be tough resistance. We are holding on and betting on a run to $11.00.

I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
Keep in mind this is an aggressive trade and HGSI can be a volatile stock. Our target is $11.00 but readers should note that the $10.00 level and the simple 100-dma could act as overhead resistance. I am suggesting we keep our position size small to limit our risk.

(small positions)

current Position: Long HGSI stock @ $9.06

- or -

Long Feb $10 call (HGSI1218B10) Entry $0.59

01/25/12 readers may want to take profits now (HGSI @ $9.92)
01/19/12 HGSI gapped open higher at $9.06 on a new "buy" rating

Entry on January 19 at $9.06
Earnings Date 02/23/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 7.1 million
Listed on January 18, 2011


Host Hotels & Resorts - HST - close: 16.63 change: +0.17

Stop Loss: 15.45
Target(s): 17.90
Current Gain/Loss: unopened
Time Frame: up to the Feb. 14th earnings report
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
01/25 update: HST is still inching higher but I don't want to chase it. The current plan is to wait and buy a dip at $16.00. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for HST is bullish with a $24.00 target.

Buy-the-dip trigger @ 16.00
(Small Positions)

Suggested Position: buy HST stock @ $16.00

- or -

buy the Feb $16 call (HST1218B16)

01/24/12 trade not open yet. adjust strategy to buy the dip at $16.00.

Entry on January xx at $ xx.xx
Earnings Date 02/14/12 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 7.5 million
Listed on January 21, 2011


J.P.Morgan Chase & Co - JPM - close: 37.60 change: -0.06

Stop Loss: 35.95
Target(s): 42.50
Current Gain/Loss: unopened
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
01/25 update: JPM did not make any progress today. Shares continue to churn sideways in the $37.00-38.00 zone. Currently our plan is to open bullish positions at $38.05. More conservative traders may want to wait for JPM to actually close over $38.00 before launching new positions.

If our trade is opened we'll use a stop loss at $35.95. Our multi-week target is $42.50. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for JPM is bullish with a long-term $56 target.

Trigger @ 38.05

Suggested Position: buy JPM stock @ $38.05

- or -

buy the Feb $38 call (JPM1218B38)

- or -

buy the Mar $38 call (JPM1217C38)

01/24/12 still not open. adjust strategy to use a trigger @ 38.05
01/23/12 trade not open yet, S&P 500 opened negative. Try again.

Entry on January xx at $ xx.xx
Earnings Date 01/13/12
Average Daily Volume = 35.2 million
Listed on January 21, 2011


Starbucks Corp. - SBUX - close: 47.77 change: +0.12

Stop Loss: 46.95
Target(s): 49.00
Current Gain/Loss: + 3.6%
Time Frame: up to the January earnings report.
New Positions: see below

Comments:
01/25 update: Shares of SBUX were upgraded this morning. The stock gapped higher and hit $48.09 before fading. I don't expect a lot of movement tomorrow as investors wait for the earnings report on Thursday after the closing bell. Our plan is to exit positions tomorrow at the close to avoid holding over earnings.

current Position: long SBUX stock @ $46.08

- or -

Long FEB $47 call (SBUX1218B47) entry $1.56

01/24/12 prepare to exit at the close on Jan. 26th.
new stop loss @ 46.95
01/21/12 new stop loss @ 46.75
01/19/12 Readers may want to take profits now!
01/18/12 new stop loss $ 46.40, adjust exit to $49.00
01/17/12 new stop loss @ 45.95
01/14/12 new stop loss @ 45.75, plan to exit prior to earnings
01/12/12 new stop loss @ 44.90
01/11/12 new stop loss @ 44.60
01/07/12 new stop loss @ 43.95

Entry on December 29 at $46.08
Earnings Date 01/26/12 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 5.1 million
Listed on December 28, 2011


Smith & Wesson Holding Corp. - SWHC - close: 4.94 change: +0.06

Stop Loss: 4.55
Target(s): 5.65 or 6.40
Current Gain/Loss: + 2.2%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
01/25 update: SWHC rallied to a new 52-week high and hit what is probably round-number, psychological resistance at the $5.00 level this afternoon. Don't be surprised to see another pull back tomorrow. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
I do consider this a very aggressive trade and we want to keep our position size small. The $5.00 level could be resistance but we're going to aim higher. I am setting two different targets depending on your risk tolerance. I'd aim for $5.65 or $6.40. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for SWHC is bullish with a long-term $9.50 target.

(Small Positions)

Suggested Position: long SWHC stock @ $4.83

01/24/12 new stop loss @ 4.55

Entry on January 17 at $4.83
Earnings Date 03/12/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 962 thousand
Listed on January 14, 2011


Teck Resources - TCK - close: 42.33 change: +1.07

Stop Loss: 40.75
Target(s): 49.00
Current Gain/Loss: unopened
Time Frame: up to Feb 9 earnings report.
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
01/25 update: We are still waiting for a breakout past resistance. TCK did show some relative strength today with a +2.5% gain but the rally stalled at its 200-dma.

I am suggesting small bullish positions if TCK can trade at $43.10 or higher. We'll use a stop loss at $40.75 to start. More aggressive traders might want to keep their stop under $40.00 instead. Our target is the $47.00 level. Our target is pretty optimistic given our time frame. We do not want to hold over the Feb. 9th earnings report. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for TCK is bullish with a long-term $61.00 target.

Trigger @ $43.10 (small positions)

Suggested Position: buy TCK stock @ 43.10

- or -

buy the Feb $43 call (TCK1218B43)

01/25/12 adjusted exit target to $47.00.

Entry on January xx at $ xx.xx
Earnings Date 02/09/12 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.3 million
Listed on January 23, 2011


Textainer Group Holdings - TGH - close: 31.97 change: +0.20

Stop Loss: 29.90
Target(s): 34.00
Current Gain/Loss: + 4.4%
Time Frame: 3 to 4 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
01/25 update: TGH continues to drift higher. More conservative traders may want to take profits now. We are raising our stop loss up to $29.90. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
A breakout could spark some short covering. The most recent data listed short interest at 11% of the very small 12.8 million share float. That raises the risk of a short squeeze. Plus, TGH should appeal to the high-yield crowd since shares sport a 4.7% yield. NOTE: TGH does have options but the spreads are a little wide.

current Position: Long TGH stock @ 30.60

01/25/12 new stop loss @ 29.90
01/19/12 new stop loss @ 29.40
01/13/12 TGH hit our trigger at $30.60 and reversed in less than one second. I am suggesting caution here.

Entry on January 13 at $30.60
Earnings Date 02/09/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 172 thousand
Listed on January 11, 2011


BEARISH Play Updates

None. Currently we do not have any active bearish trades.


CLOSED BULLISH PLAYS

Ball Corp. - BLL - close: 37.70 change: -0.05

Stop Loss: 39.00
Target(s): 37.25
Current Gain/Loss: + 1.9%
Time Frame: up to the earnings report (01/26)
New Positions: see below

Comments:
01/25 update: It was our plan to exit our BLL positions at the closing bell tonight to avoid holding over earnings. Unfortunately BLL hit our new stop loss at $37.25 this morning. The intraday low was $37.08.

closed Position: Long BLL stock @ 36.55, exit 37.25 (+1.9%)

- or -

Feb $35 call (BLL1221A35) entry 2.30, exit $2.75 (+19.5%)

01/25/12 planned exit at the closing bell
01/24/12 prepare to exit at the close tomorrow
01/24/12 new stop loss @ 37.25
01/21/12 remember, we want to exit prior to earnings on 01/26
01/18/12 new stop loss @ 36.65
01/12/12 new stop loss @ 36.25
01/11/12 new stop loss @ 35.75
01/06/12 trade triggered at $36.55
01/05/12 adjusted stop loss to $35.35, plan to exit prior to earnings

chart:

Entry on January 06 at $36.55
Earnings Date 01/26/12 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 985 thousand
Listed on January 03, 2011


SAIC, Inc. - SAI - close: 12.99 change: +0.11

Stop Loss: 12.74
Target(s): 14.50
Current Gain/Loss: - 1.9%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
01/25 update: Yesterday we decided that SAI was showing too much relative weakness and planned to exit this morning at the open. SAI opened at $12.85, dipped to its 20-dma, and bounced.

(Small Positions)

closed Position: long SAI stock @ $13.10, exit $12.85 (-1.9%)

- or -

Long Feb $12 call (SAI1218B12) Entry $1.30, exit $1.00 (-23.0%)

01/25/12 exit at the open
01/24/12 Exit early. We want to exit at the open tomorrow.

chart:

Entry on January 17 at $13.10
Earnings Date 03/22/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.7 million
Listed on January 14, 2011


CLOSED BEARISH PLAYS

C&J Energy Services, Inc. - CJES - close: 17.98 change: -0.29

Stop Loss: 19.75
Target(s): 15.00
Current Gain/Loss: - 3.2%
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks, exit prior to earnings
New Positions: see below

Comments:
01/25 update: CJES opened at $18.37 before reversing lower and underperforming the market with a -1.5% decline. Last night we adjusted our strategy to exit early at the open this morning to cut our losses early. Readers may want to keep CJES on their watch list for a breakdown under $17.00 or a new failed rally near $20.00 as bearish entry points.

(small positions)

closed Position: short CJES stock @ 17.80, exit $18.37 (-3.2%)

- or -

Feb $17.50 put (CJES1218N17.5) Entry $0.98, exit $0.65 (-33.6%)

01/25/12 exited at the open this morning.
01/24/12 CJES is not cooperating. Prepare to exit at the open tomorrow morning

chart:

Entry on January 18 at $17.80
Earnings Date 02/15/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 923 thousand
Listed on January 17, 2011