Editor's Note:
The U.S. markets are closed on Monday, Feb. 20th. Traders were content to let stocks drift into the long weekend.

Our DRIV, EXXI and FCFS trades were all opened on Friday.

Current Portfolio:


BULLISH Play Updates

Archer-Daniels-Midland Co - ADM - close: 31.35 change: +0.12

Stop Loss: 29.75
Target(s): 34.00
Current Gain/Loss: + 0.4%
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/18 update: Friday proved to be a relatively quiet day for ADM. Traders bought the dip midday and ADM managed to close off its lows. I am not suggesting new positions at this time. We can look for short-term support near $30.50 and reconsider new positions there.

Earlier Comments:
More conservative traders might want to consider waiting to buy a dip near ADM's rising 10-dma. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for ADM is bullish with a $40.00 target.

current Position: Long ADM stock @ $31.21

- or -

Long Mar $32 call (ADM1217C32) Entry $0.47

chart:

Entry on February 15 at $31.21
Earnings Date 05/03/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 5.6 million
Listed on February 14, 2011


Acme Packet, Inc. - APKT - close: 35.45 change: -0.54

Stop Loss: 33.65
Target(s): 39.75
Current Gain/Loss: - 1.6%
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/18 update: APKT erased Thursday's gains with a -1.5% pullback on Friday. Trades did buy the dip near $35.00 late Friday morning. The trend is still higher and if both APKT and the S&P 500 open positive on Tuesday I would consider new positions here. However, if the market does slip lower we can expect APKT to test its simple 10-dma near $34.50ish.

The $40.00 level has been resistance in the past so we'll set our exit target at $39.75. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for APKT is bullish with a long-term $54.00 target.

(small positions)

current Position: Long APKT stock @ $36.05

- or -

Long Mar $35 call (APKT1217C35) Entry $2.70

chart:

Entry on February 16 at $36.05
Earnings Date 04/26/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 4.1 million
Listed on February 15, 2011


Discover Financial Services - DFS - close: 29.54 change: -0.04

Stop Loss: 27.95
Target(s): 31.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 4.9%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/18 update: Warning! Friday's action looks like a short-term top. DFS spiked at the open and hit round-number, psychological resistance at $30.00 and immediately reversed lower. On Thursday I suggested more conservative traders may want to exit near $30.00. With Friday's intraday reversal I would expect shares to decline back toward $29.00 and its rising 10-dma. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Current Position: Long DFS stock @ $28.15

- or -

Long MAR $28 call (DFS1217C28) Entry $1.10

02/16/12 new stop loss @ 27.95
02/15/12 new stop loss @ 27.75
02/10/12 triggered at $28.15
02/08/12 new trigger @ 28.15, stop loss 27.25
02/07/12 still not open. Adjust strategy to buy a dip at $28.30, stop loss at $27.40
02/06/12 not open yet. try again.

chart:

Entry on February 10 at $28.15
Earnings Date 03/22/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 6.2 million
Listed on February 04, 2011


Digital River - DRIV - close: 18.28 change: -0.05

Stop Loss: 17.45
Target(s): 21.50
Current Gain/Loss: - 1.1%
Time Frame: 4 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/18 update: Our DRIV trade is not off to a great start. Shares did trade higher on Friday morning but the gains didn't last. The stock hit our breakout trigger at $18.50 and then reversed lower. The lack of follow through is worrisome. The high on Friday was $18.59. I'd prefer to see shares trade at $18.60 before considering new positions.

Earlier Comments:
DRIV can definitely see some volatility so we want to keep our position size small to limit our risk. There potential price resistance at $20.00. There is potential technical resistance at the 150-dma and exponential 200-dma.

(small positions)

current Position: Long DRIV stock @ $18.50

- or -

Long Mar $18 call (DRIV1217c18) Entry $1.00

chart:

Entry on February 17 at $18.50
Earnings Date 04/30/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 727 thousand
Listed on February 13, 2011


Eaton Corp. - ETN - close: 50.82 change: -0.19

Stop Loss: 49.75
Target(s): 54.75
Current Gain/Loss: + 1.1%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/18 update: Hmm... I remain concerned about ETN's recent performance. The bounce on Friday failed at its simple 10-dma. Shares look poised to dip toward round-number support at $50.00. I am suggesting we exit all positions at the opening bell.

current Position: Long ETN stock @ $50.25

- or -

Long MAR $50 call (ETN1221C50) Entry $1.70

02/18/12 prepare to exit at the opening bell
02/10/12 exited Feb $50 calls at the open. Bid @ $1.10 (+10%)
02/09/12 new stop loss @ 49.75
02/09/12 exit the Feb $50 calls at the open tomorrow, current bid is $1.95 (+95%).
02/06/12 new stop loss @ 48.40

chart:

Entry on February 03 at $50.25
Earnings Date 01/26/12
Average Daily Volume = 3.7 million
Listed on January 28, 2011


Energy XXI Ltd. - EXXI - close: 38.16 change: -0.24

Stop Loss: 36.45
Target(s): 42.50
Current Gain/Loss: - 0.7%
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/18 update: Both EXXI and the S&P 500 opened positive on Friday so our new trade is open. EXXI quickly declined Friday morning but traders bought the dip midday. If you are looking for a new entry point I would try again and open positions if both EXXI and the S&P 500 open positive.

Earlier Comments:
The plan was to keep our position size small to limit our risk. Our multi-week target is $42.50. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for EXXI is bullish with a long-term $62 target.

(small positions)

current Position: Long EXXI stock @ $38.43

- or -

Long Mar $40 call (EXXI1217C40) Entry $1.00

chart:

Entry on February 17 at $38.43
Earnings Date 04/26/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.2 million
Listed on February 16, 2011


First Cash Financial - FCFS - close: 43.61 change: -0.16

Stop Loss: 41.85
Target(s): 49.00
Current Gain/Loss: - 0.8%
Time Frame: 4 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/18 update: Our new FCFS trade has been opened. Unfortunately the stock's performance on Friday is a bit troubling. Shares opened higher, rallied to $44.39 and then reversed. Readers may want to wait and see if shares dip and bounce near $43.00 before considering new bullish positions.

Earlier Comments:
Our multi-week target is $49.00. FYI: Further gains could spark some short covering. The most recent data listed short interest at 6.4% of the small 27 million-share float. The Point & Figure chart for FCFS is bullish with a long-term $65.00 target.

current Position: Long FCFS stock @ $44.00

- or -

Long Mar $45 call (FCFS1217C45) Entry $1.05

chart:

Entry on February 17 at $44.00
Earnings Date 04/18/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 351 thousand
Listed on February 16, 2011


Jos. A. Bank Clothiers - JOSB - close: 52.88 change: +0.47

Stop Loss: 49.75
Target(s): 54.00
Current Gain/Loss: + 4.2%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/18 update: JOSB continues to extend its gains. The stock outperformed on Friday with a +0.8% gain. Shares are up significantly in the last four weeks. Readers may want consider taking profits now. Nearest support is probably the 10-dma down near $50.80.

I am lowering our exit target to $54.00. I am not suggesting new positions at this time. More conservative traders may want to start raising their stop loss.

Earlier Comments:
Further gains could spark a short squeeze. The most recent data listed short interest at 19.8% of the 27.5 million-share float.

current Position: long JOSB stock @ $50.75

- or -

Long Mar $50 call (JOSB1217C50) Entry $1.90

02/18/12 adjusted exit target to $54.00.
02/14/12 new stop loss @ 49.75

chart:

Entry on February 13 at $50.75
Earnings Date 03/29/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 301 thousand
Listed on February 11, 2011


KB Home - KBH - close: 12.16 change: -0.11

Stop Loss: 10.75
Target(s): 13.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 9.5%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/18 update: KBH has been overdue for some profit taking. Thus far the pull back the last couple of days has been relatively minor. I remain concerned that the action on Wednesday looks like a potential top and readers may want to exit now to lock in gains.

I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
A breakout higher could produced another short squeeze. The most recent data listed short interest at 41% of the 65 million-share float. Bear in mind that KBH can be a volatile stock. Readers may want to keep their position size small. Our exit target is $13.50. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for KBH is bullish with a long-term $20.00 target.

current Position: Long KBH stock @ $11.10

- or -

Long Mar $12 call (KBH1217C12) Entry $0.50

02/13/12 readers may want to start taking profits now (+11.6%). The call option is +122%
02/09/12 new stop loss @ 10.75

chart:

Entry on February 09 at $11.10
Earnings Date 04/05/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 7.8 million
Listed on February 08, 2011


Smith & Wesson Holding Corp. - SWHC - close: 5.25 change: +0.00

Stop Loss: 4.95
Target(s): 5.60
Current Gain/Loss: + 8.7%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/18 update: SWHC continues to consolidate sideways. Shares closed unchanged on Friday. Technically SWHC still has a bullish trend of higher lows but I am not suggesting new positions at this time. We will raise our stop loss to $4.95. More conservative traders may want to exit early now to lock in gains.

Earlier Comments:
I do consider this a very aggressive trade and we want to keep our position size small. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for SWHC is bullish with a long-term $10.25 target.

(Small Positions)

Suggested Position: long SWHC stock @ $4.83

02/18/12 new stop loss @ 4.95
02/08/12 big intraday dip and bounce, low was $4.93
02/04/12 new stop loss @ 4.90, adjust exit to $5.60
02/02/12 new stop loss @ 4.75
01/28/12 new stop loss @ 4.65
01/24/12 new stop loss @ 4.55

chart:

Entry on January 17 at $4.83
Earnings Date 03/12/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 962 thousand
Listed on January 14, 2011


Zumiez Inc. - ZUMZ - close: 31.04 change: -0.57

Stop Loss: 28.90
Target(s): 32.25 or 34.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 7.9%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/18 update: Shares of ZUMZ produced a choppy move higher this past week. Traders were taking some money off the table on Friday. The overall trend remains bullish. Readers could look for a new bounce off the $30.00 level of its 50-dma as a new entry point.

Earlier Comments:
I am setting two different targets. Conservative traders can exit at $32.25. More aggressive traders can exit at $34.50.

current Position: Long ZUMZ stock @ 28.75

02/16/12 new stop loss @ 28.90
02/15/12 exited Feb. $30 calls. bid @ $0.55 (-45%)
02/14/12 prepare to exit Feb. $30 calls at the close tomorrow
02/11/12 new stop loss @ 28.45
02/08/12 new stop loss @ 27.90
02/01/12 Trade opened with ZUMZ gapping higher at $28.75

chart:

Entry on February 01 at $28.75
Earnings Date 03/12/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 627 thousand
Listed on January 31, 2011


BEARISH Play Updates

None. We do not have any active bearish trades.


CLOSED BULLISH PLAYS

Autodesk, Inc. - ADSK - close: 38.91 change: -0.62

Stop Loss: 37.45
Target(s): 39.90
Current Gain/Loss: + 6.6%
Time Frame: exit prior to the Feb 23rd earnings announcement
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/18 update: After another week of gains ADSK faded lower into the long weekend. Shares underperformed with a -1.5% decline. We recently adjusted our exit strategy to close positions on Friday at the closing bell.

closed Position: Long ADSK stock @ 36.50, exit $38.91 (+6.6%)

02/17/12 exited at the closing bell
02/16/12 prepare to exit tomorrow at the closing bell
02/16/12 new stop loss @ 37.45
02/15/12 new stop loss @ 36.95
02/10/12 closed Feb. $37 calls, bid @ $1.02 (-0.5%)
02/09/12 prepare to exit Feb. $37 calls, current bid $1.65 (+52.7%)
02/08/12 new stop loss @ 36.50
02/07/12 new stop loss @ 36.25
02/02/12 new stop loss @ 35.75
02/01/12 new stop loss @ 35.25
01/26/12 the action today looks like a potential top or bearish reversal. Be careful!

chart:

Entry on January 26 at $36.50
Earnings Date 02/23/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.5 million
Listed on January 24, 2011