Editor's Note:
The stock market's widespread decline on Monday morning was strong enough to trigger a couple of our buy-the-dip trades.

Meanwhile I have adjusted our entry strategy on HAIN.

Current Portfolio:


BULLISH Play Updates

Archer-Daniels-Midland Co - ADM - close: 31.71 change: -0.25

Stop Loss: 29.75
Target(s): 34.00
Current Gain/Loss: + 1.6%
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/27 update: ADM hit some minor profit taking on Monday with traders buying the dip near $31.50. I am not suggesting new positions at this time. More conservative traders may want to start raising their stop loss.

Earlier Comments:
More conservative traders might want to consider waiting to buy a dip near ADM's rising 10-dma. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for ADM is bullish with a $40.00 target.

current Position: Long ADM stock @ $31.21

- or -

Long Mar $32 call (ADM1217C32) Entry $0.47

Entry on February 15 at $31.21
Earnings Date 05/03/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 5.6 million
Listed on February 14, 2011


Avery Dennison - AVY - close: 31.03 change: +0.23

Stop Loss: 29.75
Target(s): 33.40
Current Gain/Loss: - 0.0%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/27 update: AVY displayed some relative strength today. Traders bought the dip this morning near its simple 200-dma and exponential 200-dma around $30.50. The stock rebounded to a +0.7% gain.

Our target is the late July highs near the bottom of its gap down. We will plan to exit at $33.40. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for AVY is bullish with a $43.00 target.

current Position: Long AVY stock @ 31.05

- or -

Long Apr $30 call (AVY1221D30) Entry $1.65

Entry on February 25 at $31.05
Earnings Date 04/26/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.5 million
Listed on February 23, 2011


Discover Financial Services - DFS - close: 29.84 change: -0.35

Stop Loss: 28.45
Target(s): 31.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 6.0%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/27 update: I am a little bit surprised by the relative weakness in DFS today considering the strength in the financial sector on Monday. Although you could definitely argue that DFS was due for a little profit taking so a pullback is understandable. Look for support near the 10-dma or the $29.00 level. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Current Position: Long DFS stock @ $28.15

- or -

Long MAR $28 call (DFS1217C28) Entry $1.10

02/25/12 new stop loss @ 28.45
02/16/12 new stop loss @ 27.95
02/15/12 new stop loss @ 27.75
02/10/12 triggered at $28.15
02/08/12 new trigger @ 28.15, stop loss 27.25
02/07/12 still not open. Adjust strategy to buy a dip at $28.30, stop loss at $27.40
02/06/12 not open yet. try again.

Entry on February 10 at $28.15
Earnings Date 03/22/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 6.2 million
Listed on February 04, 2011


Digital River - DRIV - close: 17.83 change: -0.27

Stop Loss: 17.45
Target(s): 21.50
Current Gain/Loss: - 3.6%
Time Frame: 4 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/27 update: Hmm... the relative weakness in DRIV doesn't bode well. The stock followed the market lower this morning but never really recovered. Shares are trading near the lower boundary of its recent trading range. More conservative traders may want to consider an early exit. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
We want to keep our position size small to limit our risk. There potential price resistance at $20.00. There is potential technical resistance at the 150-dma and exponential 200-dma.

(small positions)

current Position: Long DRIV stock @ $18.50

- or -

Long Mar $18 call (DRIV1217c18) Entry $1.00

02/25/12 we may want to consider an early exit to cut our losses.

Entry on February 17 at $18.50
Earnings Date 04/30/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 727 thousand
Listed on February 13, 2011


Energy XXI Ltd. - EXXI - close: 38.87 change: +0.29

Stop Loss: 36.45
Target(s): 42.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 1.1%
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/27 update: This morning EXXI put out a press release reaffirming its annual production estimates with current production nearing 50,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day (BOE/d). The stock initially bucked the market's morning decline but shares did trade lower until traders bought the dip near $38.00. The stock eventually outperformed with a +0.7% gain.

Earlier Comments:
The plan was to keep our position size small to limit our risk. Our multi-week target is $42.50. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for EXXI is bullish with a long-term $62 target.

(small positions)

current Position: Long EXXI stock @ $38.43

- or -

Long Mar $40 call (EXXI1217C40) Entry $1.00

Entry on February 17 at $38.43
Earnings Date 04/26/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.2 million
Listed on February 16, 2011


First Cash Financial - FCFS - close: 42.39 change: -0.81

Stop Loss: 41.85
Target(s): 49.00
Current Gain/Loss: - 3.6%
Time Frame: 4 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/27 update: FCFS underperformed again with a -1.8% decline. Readers will want to seriously consider an early exit right now. Shares spiked lower with the market this morning but the intraday bounce back wasn't big enough. The intraday low was $41.88. We have a stop loss at $41.85. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
Our multi-week target is $49.00. FYI: Further gains could spark some short covering. The most recent data listed short interest at 6.4% of the small 27 million-share float. The Point & Figure chart for FCFS is bullish with a long-term $65.00 target.

current Position: Long FCFS stock @ $44.00

- or -

Long Mar $45 call (FCFS1217C45) Entry $1.05

Entry on February 17 at $44.00
Earnings Date 04/18/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 351 thousand
Listed on February 16, 2011


Graco Inc. - GGG - close: 51.56 change: +0.40

Stop Loss: 48.95
Target(s): 54.50
Current Option Gain/Loss: + 2.6%
Time Frame: 3 to 4 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/27 update: Excellent news! GGG gapped open lower with the market on Monday morning and spiked down to $50.17 before bouncing back to outperform with a +0.7% gain. Our trigger to open bullish positions was hit at $50.25.

The plan was to keep our position size small to limit our risk. Our target is $54.50. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for GGG is bullish with a long-term $77 target.

(small positions)

current position: Long GGG stock @ $50.25

02/27/12 triggered at $50.25
02/25/12 trade did not open. Adjust entry to buy a dip at $50.25
02/23/12 trade did not open, try again.
02/22/12 trade did not open, try again.

Entry on February 27 at $50.25
Earnings Date 04/26/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 414 thousand
Listed on February 21, 2012


The Hain Celestial Group - HAIN - close: 39.84 change: -0.82

Stop Loss: 38.95
Target(s): 44.75
Current Gain/Loss: unopened
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
02/27 update: HAIN really underperformed today. The stock gapped open lower, which negated our entry point strategy. Shares then spiked down to $39.15 only to see a big bounce that faded lower into the closing bell. HAIN did find technical support at its 30-dma but the -2% decline is disappointing.

I am adjusting our entry point strategy. We will use a new trigger to open small bullish positions if HAIN can trade at $40.85 or higher. We'll adjust our stop loss to $38.95.

Trigger: @ $40.85 (small positions)

Suggested Position: buy HAIN stock @ (trigger)

02/27/12 trade did not open. Adjusting entry strategy to buy HAIN at $40.85 with a stop loss at $38.95
02/25/12 trade did not open. Try again

Entry on February xx at $ xx.xx
Earnings Date 05/03/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 430 thousand
Listed on February 23, 2011


Jos. A. Bank Clothiers - JOSB - close: 50.78 change: +0.18

Stop Loss: 49.75
Target(s): 54.00
Current Gain/Loss: + 0.0%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/27 update: JOSB spiked down toward support near $50.00 and bounced. If both JOSB and the S&P 500 index open positive tomorrow we can use it as a new bullish entry point.

Earlier Comments:
Further gains could spark a short squeeze. The most recent data listed short interest at 19.8% of the 27.5 million-share float.

current Position: long JOSB stock @ $50.75

- or -

Long Mar $50 call (JOSB1217C50) Entry $1.90

02/18/12 adjusted exit target to $54.00.
02/14/12 new stop loss @ 49.75

Entry on February 13 at $50.75
Earnings Date 03/29/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 301 thousand
Listed on February 11, 2011


KB Home - KBH - close: 11.57 change: +0.13

Stop Loss: 11.10
Target(s): 13.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 4.2%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/27 update: KBH followed the market lower this morning. Shares gapped down at $11.21 but found technical support at the 20-dma. Shares rebounded at $11.13 with our stop loss at $11.10 so the trade is still open but I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
A breakout higher could produced another short squeeze. The most recent data listed short interest at 41% of the 65 million-share float. Bear in mind that KBH can be a volatile stock. Readers may want to keep their position size small. Our exit target is $13.50. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for KBH is bullish with a long-term $20.00 target.

current Position: Long KBH stock @ $11.10

- or -

Long Mar $12 call (KBH1217C12) Entry $0.50

02/25/12 new stop loss @ 11.10 (breakeven for the stock position)
02/21/12 new stop loss @ 10.90
02/13/12 readers may want to start taking profits now (+11.6%). The call option is +122%
02/09/12 new stop loss @ 10.75

Entry on February 09 at $11.10
Earnings Date 04/05/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 7.8 million
Listed on February 08, 2011


NYSE Euronext - NYX - close: 30.89 change: +0.05

Stop Loss: 28.75
Target(s): 34.75
Current Gain/Loss: unopened
Time Frame: 4 to 8 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
02/27 update: Hmm... we might want to adjust our entry point strategy on NYX. This morning would have been the perfect excuse to sell NYX down toward the $30 level or even its 10-dma since the market was seeing a widespread sell-off. Yet the NYX only declined to $30.38 before bouncing back. Our trigger remains un-hit at $30.25.

We want to keep our position size small. Our multi-week target is $34.75. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for NYX is bullish with a $41.00 target.

Trigger: buy a dip at $30.25, new stop loss $28.75

(small positions)

Suggested Position: buy NYX stock @ (trigger)

- or -

buy the Mar $30 call (NYX1217C30)

02/25/12 adjust entry point strategy to buy a dip at $30.25 and adjust stop loss to $28.75
02/23/12 not open yet, try again.

Entry on February xx at $ xx.xx
Earnings Date 04/30/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.4 million
Listed on February 22, 2011


Charles Schwab - SCHW - close: 13.48 change: -0.04

Stop Loss: 12.49
Target(s): 14.75
Current Gain/Loss: + 1.7%
Time Frame: 4 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/27 update: The stock market's widespread decline this morning was strong enough to push SCHW down to $13.15. Our buy-the-dip trigger was hit at $13.25. Our multi-week target is $14.75. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for SCHW is bullish with a $19.00 target.

current Position: Long SCHW stock @ $13.25

- or -

Long Apr $13 call (SCHW1221D13) entry $0.59

Entry on February 27 at $13.25
Earnings Date 04/16/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 15.9 million
Listed on February 25, 2011


United States Oil Fund (ETF) - USO - close: 41.14 change: -0.87

Stop Loss: 39.40
Target(s): 43.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 2.2%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/27 update: I cautioned readers over the weekend that oil was looking overbought and due for a dip. A bounce in the dollar helped spark some profit taking in the USO. Shares could easily pull back toward support near its 10-dma or price support near $40.00 (which would be stronger).

I am not suggesting new positions at this time. Our target to exit is still $43.50 but longer-term traders could aim for the $45.00 area.

Earlier Comments:
We do not want to use the USO for long-term positions. This ETF is constantly rolling over its futures positions over time, which can have a negative impact on the share price. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for USO is bullish with a long-term $58.00 target.

(small positions!)

current Position: Long the ETF @ $40.25

- or -

Long April $40 call (USO1221D40) Entry $2.10

02/25/12 new stop loss @ 39.40.

Entry on February 21 at $40.25
Earnings Date --/--/--
Average Daily Volume = 8.8 million
Listed on February 18, 2011


VimpelCom - VIP - close: 12.39 change: -0.11

Stop Loss: 11.75
Target(s): 14.25
Current Gain/Loss: unopened
Time Frame: up to its March earnings report
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
02/27 update: The S&P 500's and VIP's gap down at the open this morning negated our entry point. VIP didn't see that much profit taking and spent most of the day consolidating sideways. I am suggesting we try again.

We want to open small bullish positions at the opening bell but only if both VIP and the S&P 500 index open positive. We'll use a stop loss at $11.75. Our target is $14.25 but I will confess this is probably much too optimistic. VIP is due to report earnings in mid March and we do not want to hold over the report.

Keep in mind that VIP is prone to gap open each morning as shares adjust to trading overseas. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for VIP is bullish with a long-term $19.00 target.

Do not enter position unless VIP and the S&P 500 are both positive at the open

Suggested Position: buy VIP stock @ (the open)

02/27/12 trade did not open. try again.

Entry on February xx at $ xx.xx
Earnings Date 03/13/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.7 million
Listed on February 25, 2011


Zumiez Inc. - ZUMZ - close: 30.55 change: +0.37

Stop Loss: 29.25
Target(s): 32.25 or 34.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 6.2%
Time Frame: up to the early March earnings report
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/27 update: ZUMZ did not see that much profit taking this morning. Shares dipped to $29.80 and bounced, keeping the trend of higher lows intact. While ZUMZ outperformed the market with a +1.2% gain shares still have a short-term trend of lower highs. At this time I'd wait for a rise pat $31.05 before considering new bullish positions.

NOTE: ZUMZ is due to report earnings in early March. We do not have a confirmed date yet and we do not want to hold over the report. I suspect we have less than two weeks left for this trade.

Earlier Comments:
I am setting two different targets. Conservative traders can exit at $32.25. More aggressive traders can exit at $34.50.

current Position: Long ZUMZ stock @ 28.75

- or -

buy the Mar $30 call (ZUMZ1217C30)
we can buy calls if ZUMZ trades over $31.05 again.

02/25/12 new stop loss @ 29.25
02/24/12 ZUMZ did not meet our new entry point conditions.
02/16/12 new stop loss @ 28.90
02/15/12 exited Feb. $30 calls. bid @ $0.55 (-45%)
02/14/12 prepare to exit Feb. $30 calls at the close tomorrow
02/11/12 new stop loss @ 28.45
02/08/12 new stop loss @ 27.90
02/01/12 Trade opened with ZUMZ gapping higher at $28.75

Entry on February 01 at $28.75
Earnings Date 03/12/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 627 thousand
Listed on January 31, 2011


BEARISH Play Updates

None. We do not have any active bearish trades.