Editor's Note:
Homebuilding stocks were underperforming thanks to several downgrades this morning. Our KBH trade has been stopped out. Meanwhile our new CTCT trade has been triggered.

Current Portfolio:


BULLISH Play Updates

Archer-Daniels-Midland Co - ADM - close: 31.58 change: -0.13

Stop Loss: 29.75
Target(s): 34.00
Current Gain/Loss: + 1.1%
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/28 update: After three weeks of strong gains ADM finally pulled back enough to test its simple 10-dma. Traders did buy the dip intraday but ADM underperformed the major indices with a -0.4% decline. I am not suggesting new positions at this time. More conservative traders may want to start raising their stop loss.

Earlier Comments:
More conservative traders might want to consider waiting to buy a dip near ADM's rising 10-dma. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for ADM is bullish with a $40.00 target.

current Position: Long ADM stock @ $31.21

- or -

Long Mar $32 call (ADM1217C32) Entry $0.47

Entry on February 15 at $31.21
Earnings Date 05/03/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 5.6 million
Listed on February 14, 2011


Avery Dennison - AVY - close: 30.86 change: -0.17

Stop Loss: 29.75
Target(s): 33.40
Current Gain/Loss: - 0.6%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/28 update: Tuesday proved to be a relatively quiet session for AVY. Shares did underperform to the tune of -0.5%. Nimble traders might consider buying a dip near its rising 10-dma around $30.30.

Our target is the late July highs near the bottom of its gap down. We will plan to exit at $33.40. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for AVY is bullish with a $43.00 target.

current Position: Long AVY stock @ 31.05

- or -

Long Apr $30 call (AVY1221D30) Entry $1.65

Entry on February 25 at $31.05
Earnings Date 04/26/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.5 million
Listed on February 23, 2011


Constant Contact, Inc. - CTCT - close: 31.31 change: +0.02

Stop Loss: 29.45
Target(s): 34.75
Current Gain/Loss: - 0.7%
Time Frame: 4 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/28 update: Our new trade on CTCT has been triggered. Shares opened at $31.49 and quickly hit our entry point at $31.55. The stock's rally did fail near $32.00 and shares fell back to almost unchanged on the session. The final performance is a bit disappointing considering the new relative highs for the major indices. More conservative traders may want to wait for a rally past $32.00 before considering new bullish positions here.

current Position: Long CTCT stock @ $31.55

- or -

Long Apr $30 call (CTCT1221D30) Entry $2.85

Entry on February 28 at $31.55
Earnings Date 04/30/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 662 thousand
Listed on February 27, 2011


Discover Financial Services - DFS - close: 30.37 change: +0.53

Stop Loss: 29.40
Target(s): 31.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 7.8%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/28 update: DFS continues to rally. Traders quickly bought the dip and shares climbed to a +1.7% gain and a new high. Readers may want to start taking profits now, especially if you're holding the option. I am raising our stop loss to $29.40. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Current Position: Long DFS stock @ $28.15

- or -

Long MAR $28 call (DFS1217C28) Entry $1.10

02/28/12 new stop loss @ 29.40
02/25/12 new stop loss @ 28.45
02/16/12 new stop loss @ 27.95
02/15/12 new stop loss @ 27.75
02/10/12 triggered at $28.15
02/08/12 new trigger @ 28.15, stop loss 27.25
02/07/12 still not open. Adjust strategy to buy a dip at $28.30, stop loss at $27.40
02/06/12 not open yet. try again.

Entry on February 10 at $28.15
Earnings Date 03/22/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 6.2 million
Listed on February 04, 2011


Digital River - DRIV - close: 18.02 change: +0.19

Stop Loss: 17.45
Target(s): 21.50
Current Gain/Loss: - 2.5%
Time Frame: 4 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/28 update: DRIV saw a decent intraday bounce but shares pared their gains by the closing bell. The stock remains inside its current sideways trading range. More conservative traders may want to consider an early exit now. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
We want to keep our position size small to limit our risk. There potential price resistance at $20.00. There is potential technical resistance at the 150-dma and exponential 200-dma.

(small positions)

current Position: Long DRIV stock @ $18.50

- or -

Long Mar $18 call (DRIV1217c18) Entry $1.00

02/25/12 we may want to consider an early exit to cut our losses.

Entry on February 17 at $18.50
Earnings Date 04/30/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 727 thousand
Listed on February 13, 2011


Energy XXI Ltd. - EXXI - close: 38.76 change: -0.11

Stop Loss: 36.45
Target(s): 42.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 0.8%
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/28 update: EXXI didn't make much progress today. That's probably due to the pull back in oil prices. Shares did bounce near $38 for the fourth day in a row. readers may want to inch up their stop loss. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
The plan was to keep our position size small to limit our risk. Our multi-week target is $42.50. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for EXXI is bullish with a long-term $62 target.

(small positions)

current Position: Long EXXI stock @ $38.43

- or -

Long Mar $40 call (EXXI1217C40) Entry $1.00

Entry on February 17 at $38.43
Earnings Date 04/26/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.2 million
Listed on February 16, 2011


First Cash Financial - FCFS - close: 42.50 change: +0.11

Stop Loss: 41.85
Target(s): 49.00
Current Gain/Loss: - 3.4%
Time Frame: 4 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/28 update: FCFS produced a meager bounce today (+0.2%) and well off its intraday highs. I am still thinking that readers may want to consider an early exit now. FCFS has developed a short-term bearish trend of lower highs. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
Our multi-week target is $49.00. FYI: Further gains could spark some short covering. The most recent data listed short interest at 6.4% of the small 27 million-share float. The Point & Figure chart for FCFS is bullish with a long-term $65.00 target.

current Position: Long FCFS stock @ $44.00

- or -

Long Mar $45 call (FCFS1217C45) Entry $1.05

Entry on February 17 at $44.00
Earnings Date 04/18/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 351 thousand
Listed on February 16, 2011


Graco Inc. - GGG - close: 51.43 change: -0.13

Stop Loss: 48.95
Target(s): 54.50
Current Option Gain/Loss: + 2.3%
Time Frame: 3 to 4 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/28 update: GGG took a day off to rest and trade sideways. Traders did buy the dip twice near $51.00 midday. If you're looking for an entry point consider waiting for a dip near the rising 10-dma (near $50.35).

The plan was to keep our position size small to limit our risk. Our target is $54.50. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for GGG is bullish with a long-term $77 target.

(small positions)

current position: Long GGG stock @ $50.25

02/27/12 triggered at $50.25
02/25/12 trade did not open. Adjust entry to buy a dip at $50.25
02/23/12 trade did not open, try again.
02/22/12 trade did not open, try again.

Entry on February 27 at $50.25
Earnings Date 04/26/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 414 thousand
Listed on February 21, 2012


The Hain Celestial Group - HAIN - close: 40.11 change: +0.27

Stop Loss: 38.95
Target(s): 44.75
Current Gain/Loss: unopened
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
02/28 update: Tuesday ended up a quiet session for HAIN after yesterday's volatility. There are no changes from my previous comments.

I have adjusted our entry point strategy. We will use a new trigger to open small bullish positions if HAIN can trade at $40.85 or higher. We'll adjust our stop loss to $38.95.

Trigger: @ $40.85 (small positions)

Suggested Position: buy HAIN stock @ (trigger)

02/27/12 trade did not open. Adjusting entry strategy to buy HAIN at $40.85 with a stop loss at $38.95
02/25/12 trade did not open. Try again

Entry on February xx at $ xx.xx
Earnings Date 05/03/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 430 thousand
Listed on February 23, 2011


Jos. A. Bank Clothiers - JOSB - close: 52.07 change: +1.29

Stop Loss: 49.75
Target(s): 54.00
Current Gain/Loss: + 2.6%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/28 update: JOSB was showing relative strength with a strong +2.5% bounce. The recent consolidation looks like a bull-flag pattern. That makes today's rally a potential entry point for new bullish positions.

Earlier Comments:
Further gains could spark a short squeeze. The most recent data listed short interest at 19.8% of the 27.5 million-share float.

current Position: long JOSB stock @ $50.75

- or -

Long Mar $50 call (JOSB1217C50) Entry $1.90

02/18/12 adjusted exit target to $54.00.
02/14/12 new stop loss @ 49.75

Entry on February 13 at $50.75
Earnings Date 03/29/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 301 thousand
Listed on February 11, 2011


NYSE Euronext - NYX - close: 30.54 change: -0.35

Stop Loss: 28.95
Target(s): 34.75
Current Gain/Loss: unopened
Time Frame: 4 to 8 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
02/28 update: NYX underperformed with a -1.1% decline. Shares look headed for the $30 level and its 10-dma. I am tweaking our entry point strategy and will lower our buy-the-dip entry point to $30.05 instead of $30.25. We will adjust our stop loss to $28.95.

We want to keep our position size small. Our multi-week target is $34.75. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for NYX is bullish with a $41.00 target.

Trigger: buy a dip at $30.05, new stop loss $28.95

(small positions)

Suggested Position: buy NYX stock @ (trigger)

- or -

buy the Mar $30 call (NYX1217C30)

02/28/12 adjusted trigger to $30.05 and stop to $28.95
02/25/12 adjust entry point strategy to buy a dip at $30.25 and adjust stop loss to $28.75
02/23/12 not open yet, try again.

Entry on February xx at $ xx.xx
Earnings Date 04/30/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.4 million
Listed on February 22, 2011


Charles Schwab - SCHW - close: 13.74 change: +0.26

Stop Loss: 12.49
Target(s): 14.75
Current Gain/Loss: + 3.7%
Time Frame: 4 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/28 update: SCHW continues to show relative strength. The stock gained another +1.9% after traders bought the dip this morning at $13.37. Our multi-week target is $14.75. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for SCHW is bullish with a $19.00 target.

current Position: Long SCHW stock @ $13.25

- or -

Long Apr $13 call (SCHW1221D13) entry $0.59

Entry on February 27 at $13.25
Earnings Date 04/16/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 15.9 million
Listed on February 25, 2011


United States Oil Fund (ETF) - USO - close: 40.79 change: -0.39

Stop Loss: 39.40
Target(s): 43.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 1.3%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/28 update: The profit taking in oil continues and the USO lost -0.9%. Shares are nearing what should be support at the simple 10-dma or the $40.00 level. Wait for the dip (or a bounce) before considering new positions.

Our target to exit is still $43.50 but longer-term traders could aim for the $45.00 area.

Earlier Comments:
We do not want to use the USO for long-term positions. This ETF is constantly rolling over its futures positions over time, which can have a negative impact on the share price. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for USO is bullish with a long-term $58.00 target.

(small positions!)

current Position: Long the ETF @ $40.25

- or -

Long April $40 call (USO1221D40) Entry $2.10

02/25/12 new stop loss @ 39.40.

Entry on February 21 at $40.25
Earnings Date --/--/--
Average Daily Volume = 8.8 million
Listed on February 18, 2011


VimpelCom - VIP - close: 12.16 change: -0.23

Stop Loss: 11.45
Target(s): 13.25
Current Gain/Loss: unopened
Time Frame: up to its March earnings report
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
02/28 update: Our VIP trade is still not open yet. Both the stock and the S&P 500 opened lower negating our entry point. Shares look headed for the 10-dma or the $12.00 level. I am adjusting our entry point strategy.

We want to open small bullish positions on a dip at $12.00 with a stop loss at $11.45. We'll move the target down to $13.25.

Earlier Comments:
VIP is due to report earnings in mid March and we do not want to hold over the report. Keep in mind that VIP is prone to gap open each morning as shares adjust to trading overseas. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for VIP is bullish with a long-term $19.00 target.

Trigger: buy the dip at $12.00, stop @ 11.45

Suggested Position: buy VIP stock @ (trigger)

02/28/12 trade did not open. New trigger: buy a dip at $12.00
02/27/12 trade did not open. try again.

Entry on February xx at $ xx.xx
Earnings Date 03/13/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.7 million
Listed on February 25, 2011


Zumiez Inc. - ZUMZ - close: 31.23 change: +0.68

Stop Loss: 29.25
Target(s): 32.25 or 34.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 8.6%
Time Frame: up to the early March earnings report
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/28 update: ZUMZ displayed relative strength with a +2.2% gain and a rally past the $31.00 level. Previously I suggested readers could wait for a rise past $31.05 as a new entry point for bullish positions.

NOTE: ZUMZ is due to report earnings in early March. We do not have a confirmed date yet and we do not want to hold over the report. I suspect we have less than two weeks left for this trade.

Earlier Comments:
I am setting two different targets. Conservative traders can exit at $32.25. More aggressive traders can exit at $34.50.

current Position: Long ZUMZ stock @ 28.75

- or -

buy the Mar $30 call (ZUMZ1217C30) Entry $2.35

02/28/12 ZUMZ hit our entry point for new positions at $31.05
March $30 calls entered.
02/25/12 new stop loss @ 29.25
02/24/12 ZUMZ did not meet our new entry point conditions.
02/16/12 new stop loss @ 28.90
02/15/12 exited Feb. $30 calls. bid @ $0.55 (-45%)
02/14/12 prepare to exit Feb. $30 calls at the close tomorrow
02/11/12 new stop loss @ 28.45
02/08/12 new stop loss @ 27.90
02/01/12 Trade opened with ZUMZ gapping higher at $28.75

Entry on February 01 at $28.75
Earnings Date 03/12/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 627 thousand
Listed on January 31, 2011


BEARISH Play Updates

None. We do not have any active bearish trades.


CLOSED BULLISH PLAYS

KB Home - KBH - close: 11.22 change: -0.35

Stop Loss: 11.10
Target(s): 13.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 0.0%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/28 update: Homebuilders as a group underperformed today. KBH stumbled -3.0% thanks to an analyst downgrade to a "sell" this morning. The stock hit an intraday low of $11.05, which was enough to tag our stop loss at $11.10.

closed Position: Long KBH stock @ $11.10, exit $11.10 (+0.0%)

- or -

Mar $12 call (KBH1217C12) Entry $0.50 exit $0.20 (-60.0%)

02/28/12 stopped out at $11.10
02/25/12 new stop loss @ 11.10 (breakeven for the stock position)
02/21/12 new stop loss @ 10.90
02/13/12 readers may want to start taking profits now (+11.6%). The call option is +122%
02/09/12 new stop loss @ 10.75

chart:

Entry on February 09 at $11.10
Earnings Date 04/05/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 7.8 million
Listed on February 08, 2011