Editor's Note:
The market's major indices spiked higher this morning but reversed into widespread declines this afternoon.

HAIN, NYX and TCK were all triggered.

Current Portfolio:


BULLISH Play Updates

Archer-Daniels-Midland Co - ADM - close: 31.20 change: -0.38

Stop Loss: 29.75
Target(s): 34.00
Current Gain/Loss: - 0.0%
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/29 update: ADM is still correcting lower, down three days in a row now. Look for support near $31.00 or the $30.50 area. I am not suggesting new positions at this time. More conservative traders may want to start raising their stop loss.

current Position: Long ADM stock @ $31.21

- or -

Long Mar $32 call (ADM1217C32) Entry $0.47

Entry on February 15 at $31.21
Earnings Date 05/03/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 5.6 million
Listed on February 14, 2011


Avery Dennison - AVY - close: 30.50 change: -0.36

Stop Loss: 29.75
Target(s): 33.40
Current Gain/Loss: - 1.7%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/29 update: I am urging caution here. Today's move in AVY looks like a one-day bearish reversal pattern. Shares did stall at technical support near its exponential 200-dma. More conservative traders might want to cinch up their stop loss. I still see a chance that AVY bounces near the $30.00 level so we'll leave our stop at $29.75 for now. A bounce off the 10-dma could still be used as a new entry point (near 30.40-30.50).

Earlier Comments:
Our target is the late July highs near the bottom of its gap down. We will plan to exit at $33.40. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for AVY is bullish with a $43.00 target.

current Position: Long AVY stock @ 31.05

- or -

Long Apr $30 call (AVY1221D30) Entry $1.65

Entry on February 25 at $31.05
Earnings Date 04/26/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.5 million
Listed on February 23, 2011


Constant Contact, Inc. - CTCT - close: 30.24 change: -1.07

Stop Loss: 29.45
Target(s): 34.75
Current Gain/Loss: - 4.1%
Time Frame: 4 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/29 update: Positive analyst comments on CTCT today was not enough to stop the profit taking. Shares underperformed with a -3.4% decline. Is the stock forming a bearish double top with the peak in early February and now yesterday's failure near $32.00?

More conservative traders may want to inch up their stop loss. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

current Position: Long CTCT stock @ $31.55

- or -

Long Apr $30 call (CTCT1221D30) Entry $2.85

Entry on February 28 at $31.55
Earnings Date 04/30/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 662 thousand
Listed on February 27, 2011


Discover Financial Services - DFS - close: 30.01 change: -0.36

Stop Loss: 29.40
Target(s): 31.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 6.6%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/29 update: Warning! DFS just produced a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern with today's spike to $30.69 and its drop back toward $30.00. These patterns are typically one-day bearish reversal signals but they need to see confirmation. More conservative traders will want to seriously consider an early exit right now. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Current Position: Long DFS stock @ $28.15

- or -

Long MAR $28 call (DFS1217C28) Entry $1.10

02/28/12 new stop loss @ 29.40
02/25/12 new stop loss @ 28.45
02/16/12 new stop loss @ 27.95
02/15/12 new stop loss @ 27.75
02/10/12 triggered at $28.15
02/08/12 new trigger @ 28.15, stop loss 27.25
02/07/12 still not open. Adjust strategy to buy a dip at $28.30, stop loss at $27.40
02/06/12 not open yet. try again.

Entry on February 10 at $28.15
Earnings Date 03/22/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 6.2 million
Listed on February 04, 2011


Digital River - DRIV - close: 17.65 change: -0.37

Stop Loss: 17.45
Target(s): 21.50
Current Gain/Loss: - 4.5%
Time Frame: 4 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/29 update: The relative weakness in DRIV today (-2.0%) doesn't bode well for tomorrow. If the market sinks again we could see DRIV break down from its recent trading range. The low today was $17.52. We have a stop loss at $17.45. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
We want to keep our position size small to limit our risk.

(small positions)

current Position: Long DRIV stock @ $18.50

- or -

Long Mar $18 call (DRIV1217c18) Entry $1.00

02/25/12 we may want to consider an early exit to cut our losses.

Entry on February 17 at $18.50
Earnings Date 04/30/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 727 thousand
Listed on February 13, 2011


Energy XXI Ltd. - EXXI - close: 37.43 change: -1.33

Stop Loss: 36.45
Target(s): 42.50
Current Gain/Loss: - 2.6%
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/29 update: Warning! I am urging caution here. EXXI has broken down under short-term support near $38.00. The afternoon rebound failed at this level, which doesn't bode well for tomorrow. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
The plan was to keep our position size small to limit our risk. Our multi-week target is $42.50. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for EXXI is bullish with a long-term $62 target.

(small positions)

current Position: Long EXXI stock @ $38.43

- or -

Long Mar $40 call (EXXI1217C40) Entry $1.00

Entry on February 17 at $38.43
Earnings Date 04/26/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.2 million
Listed on February 16, 2011


First Cash Financial - FCFS - close: 42.26 change: -0.24

Stop Loss: 41.85
Target(s): 49.00
Current Gain/Loss: - 3.9%
Time Frame: 4 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/29 update: Be careful here. The intraday bounce in FCFS failed at the short-term trend of lower highs. If the market declines again tomorrow we could see FCFS breakdown under support near $42.00. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
Our multi-week target is $49.00. FYI: Further gains could spark some short covering. The most recent data listed short interest at 6.4% of the small 27 million-share float. The Point & Figure chart for FCFS is bullish with a long-term $65.00 target.

current Position: Long FCFS stock @ $44.00

- or -

Long Mar $45 call (FCFS1217C45) Entry $1.05

Entry on February 17 at $44.00
Earnings Date 04/18/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 351 thousand
Listed on February 16, 2011


Graco Inc. - GGG - close: 51.18 change: -0.25

Stop Loss: 48.95
Target(s): 54.50
Current Option Gain/Loss: + 1.8%
Time Frame: 3 to 4 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/29 update: GGG tagged a new relative high at $52.00 and faded to a -0.4% decline. Shares look headed for short-term technical support at the 10-dma (near 50.50).

The plan was to keep our position size small to limit our risk. Our target is $54.50. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for GGG is bullish with a long-term $77 target.

(small positions)

current position: Long GGG stock @ $50.25

02/27/12 triggered at $50.25
02/25/12 trade did not open. Adjust entry to buy a dip at $50.25
02/23/12 trade did not open, try again.
02/22/12 trade did not open, try again.

Entry on February 27 at $50.25
Earnings Date 04/26/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 414 thousand
Listed on February 21, 2012


The Hain Celestial Group - HAIN - close: 40.84 change: +0.73

Stop Loss: 38.95
Target(s): 44.75
Current Gain/Loss: - 0.0%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/29 update: Surprise, surprise! HAIN outperformed today with a +1.8% gain. Shares hit our new trigger to open small bullish positions at $40.85. We have a stop at $38.95 but more conservative traders may want to raise their stop toward the $39.50 level.

(small positions)

current Position: Long HAIN stock @ $40.85

02/29/12 triggered at $40.85
02/27/12 trade did not open. Adjusting entry strategy to buy HAIN at $40.85 with a stop loss at $38.95
02/25/12 trade did not open. Try again

Entry on February 29 at $40.85
Earnings Date 05/03/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 430 thousand
Listed on February 23, 2011


Jos. A. Bank Clothiers - JOSB - close: 51.49 change: -0.58

Stop Loss: 49.75
Target(s): 54.00
Current Gain/Loss: + 1.4%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/29 update: JOSB was showing strength midday but the stock reversed and fell to a -1.1% decline. If the market declines tomorrow we could see JOSB dip toward the $50.50-50.00 zone. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
Further gains could spark a short squeeze. The most recent data listed short interest at 19.8% of the 27.5 million-share float.

current Position: long JOSB stock @ $50.75

- or -

Long Mar $50 call (JOSB1217C50) Entry $1.90

02/18/12 adjusted exit target to $54.00.
02/14/12 new stop loss @ 49.75

Entry on February 13 at $50.75
Earnings Date 03/29/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 301 thousand
Listed on February 11, 2011


NYSE Euronext - NYX - close: 29.77 change: -0.77

Stop Loss: 28.95
Target(s): 34.75
Current Gain/Loss: - 0.9%
Time Frame: 4 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/29 update: We were expecting a pullback toward $30.00 but a downgrade helped push NYX under the $30 level and under its 10-dma. Shares underperformed with a -2.5% decline. Our trigger to open small bullish positions was hit at $30.05. At this point I would look for a bounce near $29.70 before considering new positions.

We want to keep our position size small. Our multi-week target is $34.75. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for NYX is bullish with a $41.00 target.

(small positions)

current Position: Long NYX stock @ $30.05

- or -

Long Mar $30 call (NYX1217C30) Entry $0.55

02/29/12 triggered at $30.05
02/28/12 adjusted trigger to $30.05 and stop to $28.95
02/25/12 adjust entry point strategy to buy a dip at $30.25 and adjust stop loss to $28.75
02/23/12 not open yet, try again.

Entry on February 29 at $30.05
Earnings Date 04/30/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.4 million
Listed on February 22, 2011


Charles Schwab - SCHW - close: 13.88 change: +0.14

Stop Loss: 12.49
Target(s): 14.75
Current Gain/Loss: + 4.7%
Time Frame: 4 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/29 update: SCHW rallied to new six-month highs and hit $14.07 before paring its gains. Shares settled with a +1.0% advance. The stock is arguably short-term overbought. Don't be surprised to see a dip back into the $13.50-13.25 zone.

More conservative traders may want to go ahead and take profits now, especially on our April calls (+95%).

Our multi-week target is $14.75. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for SCHW is bullish with a $19.00 target.

current Position: Long SCHW stock @ $13.25

- or -

Long Apr $13 call (SCHW1221D13) entry $0.59

Entry on February 27 at $13.25
Earnings Date 04/16/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 15.9 million
Listed on February 25, 2011


Teck Resources Ltd. - TCK - close: 39.97 change: -1.09

Stop Loss: 39.49
Target(s): 43.95
Current Gain/Loss: - 3.3%
Time Frame: 2 to 4 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/29 update: Ouch! Material stocks were hit hard today. Gold plunged almost -5%. Silver fell -7%. Mining stocks in general were sold hard. Our problem is that TCK initially spiked higher this morning. Shares opened at $41.35, hit $41.58 and then plunged to a -2.6% decline. Our trigger to open bullish positions was supposed to be $41.30 but the opening gap triggered this trade.

The intraday sell-off has created a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern, which is normally seen as a potential one-day bearish reversal signal but they do need to see confirmation.

I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

current Position: Long TCK stock @ $41.35

- or -

Long Apr $42 call (TCK1221D42) Entry $1.94

02/29/12 trade opened on gap open higher at $41.35, which was above our trigger at $41.30.

Entry on February 29 at $41.35
Earnings Date 02/09/12
Average Daily Volume = 3.0 million
Listed on February 28, 2011


United States Oil Fund (ETF) - USO - close: 40.92 change: +0.13

Stop Loss: 39.40
Target(s): 43.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 1.6%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/29 update: The weekly oil inventory report was bearish for the second week in a row. Yet crude oil prices rally anyway. USO dipped toward round-number support at $40.00 and bounced. This move looks like a new bullish entry point. I am raising our stop loss higher to $39.75.

Our target to exit is still $43.50 but longer-term traders could aim for the $45.00 area.

Earlier Comments:
We do not want to use the USO for long-term positions. This ETF is constantly rolling over its futures positions over time, which can have a negative impact on the share price. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for USO is bullish with a long-term $58.00 target.

(small positions!)

current Position: Long the ETF @ $40.25

- or -

Long April $40 call (USO1221D40) Entry $2.10

02/29/12 new stop loss @ 39.75
02/25/12 new stop loss @ 39.40

Entry on February 21 at $40.25
Earnings Date --/--/--
Average Daily Volume = 8.8 million
Listed on February 18, 2011


VimpelCom - VIP - close: 12.17 change: +0.01

Stop Loss: 11.45
Target(s): 13.25
Current Gain/Loss: unopened
Time Frame: up to its March earnings report
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
02/29 update: VIP managed to hold near short-term technical support at its 10-dma today. The intraday low was only $12.09. I'm not adjusting our strategy yet. The plan is to open small bullish positions on a dip at $12.00.

Earlier Comments:
VIP is due to report earnings in mid March and we do not want to hold over the report. Keep in mind that VIP is prone to gap open each morning as shares adjust to trading overseas. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for VIP is bullish with a long-term $19.00 target.

Trigger: buy the dip at $12.00, stop @ 11.45

Suggested Position: buy VIP stock @ (trigger)

02/28/12 trade did not open. New trigger: buy a dip at $12.00
02/27/12 trade did not open. try again.

Entry on February xx at $ xx.xx
Earnings Date 03/13/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.7 million
Listed on February 25, 2011


Zumiez Inc. - ZUMZ - close: 31.42 change: +0.19

Stop Loss: 29.75
Target(s): 33.00 or 34.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 9.2%
Time Frame: up to the early March earnings report
New Positions: see below

Comments:
02/29 update: We need to adjust our exit targets. After the closing bell ZUMZ announced same-store sales growth in February of +14.2% versus analysts estimates for +5.1%. This news has pushed ZUMZ toward $32.50 after hours. The stock is likely to gap open higher tomorrow morning.

We will adjust our conservative exit target to take profits at $33.00. Our aggressive target remains $34.50. I am raising our stop loss to $29.75.

NOTE: ZUMZ is due to report earnings in early March. We do not have a confirmed date yet and we do not want to hold over the report. I suspect we have less than two weeks left for this trade.

current Position: Long ZUMZ stock @ 28.75

- or -

buy the Mar $30 call (ZUMZ1217C30) Entry $2.35

02/29/12 ZUMZ announced better than expected same-store sales growth of +14.2%. We will adjust our conservative exit target to $33.00. Aggressive target is still $34.50. New stop loss @ 29.75
02/28/12 ZUMZ hit our entry point for new positions at $31.05
March $30 calls entered.
02/25/12 new stop loss @ 29.25
02/24/12 ZUMZ did not meet our new entry point conditions.
02/16/12 new stop loss @ 28.90
02/15/12 exited Feb. $30 calls. bid @ $0.55 (-45%)
02/14/12 prepare to exit Feb. $30 calls at the close tomorrow
02/11/12 new stop loss @ 28.45
02/08/12 new stop loss @ 27.90
02/01/12 Trade opened with ZUMZ gapping higher at $28.75

Entry on February 01 at $28.75
Earnings Date 03/12/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 627 thousand
Listed on January 31, 2011


BEARISH Play Updates

None. We do not have any active bearish trades.