Editor's Note:
Shares of ZUMZ hit our conservative target today as it traded to new multi-year highs. We also saw AVY and CTCT get stopped out as they broke down under support.

Current Portfolio:


BULLISH Play Updates

Archer-Daniels-Midland Co - ADM - close: 31.52 change: +0.32

Stop Loss: 29.75
Target(s): 34.00
Current Gain/Loss: + 0.9%
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/01 update: ADM delivers a +1.0% bounce and recovers most of yesterday's pullback. The correction may not be over yet. I am not suggesting new positions at this time. More conservative traders may want to start raising their stop loss.

current Position: Long ADM stock @ $31.21

- or -

Long Mar $32 call (ADM1217C32) Entry $0.47

Entry on February 15 at $31.21
Earnings Date 05/03/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 5.6 million
Listed on February 14, 2011


Discover Financial Services - DFS - close: 30.67 change: +0.66

Stop Loss: 29.40
Target(s): 31.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 8.9%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/01 update: DFS continues to show relative strength. The stock added +2.1% today. I am suggesting we exit our March $28 calls at the opening bell tomorrow. The current bid on these calls is $2.65 (+140%). Obviously more aggressive traders may want to hold on but March options expire in two weeks. Our exit target for DFS is $31.50. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Current Position: Long DFS stock @ $28.15

- or -

Long MAR $28 call (DFS1217C28) Entry $1.10

03/01/12 prepare to exit our March $28 calls at the open tomorrow. current bid is at $2.65
02/28/12 new stop loss @ 29.40
02/25/12 new stop loss @ 28.45
02/16/12 new stop loss @ 27.95
02/15/12 new stop loss @ 27.75
02/10/12 triggered at $28.15
02/08/12 new trigger @ 28.15, stop loss 27.25
02/07/12 still not open. Adjust strategy to buy a dip at $28.30, stop loss at $27.40
02/06/12 not open yet. try again.

Entry on February 10 at $28.15
Earnings Date 03/22/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 6.2 million
Listed on February 04, 2011


Digital River - DRIV - close: 17.61 change: -0.04

Stop Loss: 17.45
Target(s): 21.50
Current Gain/Loss: - 4.8%
Time Frame: 4 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/01 update: DRIV is not cooperating. The intraday bounce failed and shares look poised to breakdown under the bottom of its trading range and hit our stop loss at $17.45 tomorrow. More aggressive traders might want to consider bearish positions under $17.50 and target the 50-dma. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
We want to keep our position size small to limit our risk.

(small positions)

current Position: Long DRIV stock @ $18.50

- or -

Long Mar $18 call (DRIV1217c18) Entry $1.00

02/25/12 we may want to consider an early exit to cut our losses.

Entry on February 17 at $18.50
Earnings Date 04/30/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 727 thousand
Listed on February 13, 2011


Energy XXI Ltd. - EXXI - close: 38.32 change: +0.89

Stop Loss: 36.45
Target(s): 42.50
Current Gain/Loss: - 0.2%
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/01 update: There was no follow through on yesterday's breakdown under $38.00. Shares of EXXI rebounded to the tune of +2.3%. While the close back above $38.00 is positive today's session created an "inside day", which suggests indecisive by traders. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
The plan was to keep our position size small to limit our risk. Our multi-week target is $42.50. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for EXXI is bullish with a long-term $62 target.

(small positions)

current Position: Long EXXI stock @ $38.43

- or -

Long Mar $40 call (EXXI1217C40) Entry $1.00

Entry on February 17 at $38.43
Earnings Date 04/26/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.2 million
Listed on February 16, 2011


First Cash Financial - FCFS - close: 42.34 change: +0.08

Stop Loss: 41.95
Target(s): 49.00
Current Gain/Loss: - 3.7%
Time Frame: 4 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/01 update: The action in FCFS was bearish (again). The stock saw an intraday rally but it failed near $44 and FCS closed on its lows near the bottom of its recent trading range. Odds are growing quickly that FCFS will breakdown under the $42 level soon. Readers may want to abandon ship immediately. I am not suggesting new positions. We will raise our stop loss to $41.95.

current Position: Long FCFS stock @ $44.00

- or -

Long Mar $45 call (FCFS1217C45) Entry $1.05

03/01/12 the intraday reversal is bearish. readers may want to exit early immediately. New stop loss at $41.95

Entry on February 17 at $44.00
Earnings Date 04/18/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 351 thousand
Listed on February 16, 2011


Graco Inc. - GGG - close: 51.72 change: +0.54

Stop Loss: 48.95
Target(s): 54.50
Current Option Gain/Loss: + 2.9%
Time Frame: 3 to 4 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/01 update: GGG inched higher with another +1% gain but shares were struggling with the $52.00 level as resistance all day long. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
The plan was to keep our position size small to limit our risk. Our target is $54.50. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for GGG is bullish with a long-term $77 target.

(small positions)

current position: Long GGG stock @ $50.25

02/27/12 triggered at $50.25
02/25/12 trade did not open. Adjust entry to buy a dip at $50.25
02/23/12 trade did not open, try again.
02/22/12 trade did not open, try again.

Entry on February 27 at $50.25
Earnings Date 04/26/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 414 thousand
Listed on February 21, 2012


The Hain Celestial Group - HAIN - close: 41.62 change: +0.78

Stop Loss: 38.95
Target(s): 44.75
Current Gain/Loss: + 1.8%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/01 update: HAIN outperformed again this time with a +1.9% gain. The stock is challenging its all-time highs set three weeks ago near $42.00. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

(small positions)

current Position: Long HAIN stock @ $40.85

02/29/12 triggered at $40.85
02/27/12 trade did not open. Adjusting entry strategy to buy HAIN at $40.85 with a stop loss at $38.95
02/25/12 trade did not open. Try again

Entry on February 29 at $40.85
Earnings Date 05/03/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 430 thousand
Listed on February 23, 2011


Jos. A. Bank Clothiers - JOSB - close: 52.30 change: +0.81

Stop Loss: 49.75
Target(s): 54.00
Current Gain/Loss: + 3.0%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/01 update: Retail-related names were showing strength today and JOSB added +1.5%. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
Further gains could spark a short squeeze. The most recent data listed short interest at 19.8% of the 27.5 million-share float.

current Position: long JOSB stock @ $50.75

- or -

Long Mar $50 call (JOSB1217C50) Entry $1.90

02/18/12 adjusted exit target to $54.00.
02/14/12 new stop loss @ 49.75

Entry on February 13 at $50.75
Earnings Date 03/29/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 301 thousand
Listed on February 11, 2011


NYSE Euronext - NYX - close: 29.57 change: -0.10

Stop Loss: 28.95
Target(s): 34.75
Current Gain/Loss: - 1.2%
Time Frame: 4 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/01 update: Hmm... the NYX did not participate in the market's rally today. That's a caution signal. Shares look poised to drop toward $29.00 now. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
We want to keep our position size small. Our multi-week target is $34.75. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for NYX is bullish with a $41.00 target.

(small positions)

current Position: Long NYX stock @ $30.05

- or -

Long Mar $30 call (NYX1217C30) Entry $0.55

02/29/12 triggered at $30.05
02/28/12 adjusted trigger to $30.05 and stop to $28.95
02/25/12 adjust entry point strategy to buy a dip at $30.25 and adjust stop loss to $28.75
02/23/12 not open yet, try again.

Entry on February 29 at $30.05
Earnings Date 04/30/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.4 million
Listed on February 22, 2011


Charles Schwab - SCHW - close: 13.91 change: +0.03

Stop Loss: 12.49
Target(s): 14.75
Current Gain/Loss: + 4.9%
Time Frame: 4 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/01 update: The rally in SCHW might have stalled at the $14.00 level. Shares drifted sideways in a narrow range all day long. There is no change from my prior comments. The stock is arguably short-term overbought. Don't be surprised to see a dip back into the $13.50-13.25 zone.

Earlier Comments:
Our multi-week target is $14.75. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for SCHW is bullish with a $19.00 target.

current Position: Long SCHW stock @ $13.25

- or -

Long Apr $13 call (SCHW1221D13) entry $0.59

Entry on February 27 at $13.25
Earnings Date 04/16/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 15.9 million
Listed on February 25, 2011


Teck Resources Ltd. - TCK - close: 40.07 change: +0.10

Stop Loss: 39.49
Target(s): 43.95
Current Gain/Loss: - 3.1%
Time Frame: 2 to 4 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/01 update: There was no follow through on yesterday's bearish reversal move in TCK but the bounce today was very anemic. Shares continue to look vulnerable here to more selling. More conservative traders might want to inch up their stop loss.

I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

current Position: Long TCK stock @ $41.35

- or -

Long Apr $42 call (TCK1221D42) Entry $1.94

02/29/12 trade opened on gap open higher at $41.35, which was above our trigger at $41.30.

Entry on February 29 at $41.35
Earnings Date 02/09/12
Average Daily Volume = 3.0 million
Listed on February 28, 2011


United States Oil Fund (ETF) - USO - close: 41.75 change: +0.83

Stop Loss: 39.90
Target(s): 43.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 3.7%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/01 update: As expected traders bought the dip and oil continues to rally. The USO outperformed with a +2.0% gain. The stock is now challenging resistance near $42.00. I am raising our stop loss to $39.90.

Our target to exit is still $43.50 but longer-term traders could aim for the $45.00 area.

Earlier Comments:
We do not want to use the USO for long-term positions. This ETF is constantly rolling over its futures positions over time, which can have a negative impact on the share price. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for USO is bullish with a long-term $58.00 target.

(small positions!)

current Position: Long the ETF @ $40.25

- or -

Long April $40 call (USO1221D40) Entry $2.10

03/01/12 new stop loss @ 39.90
02/29/12 new stop loss @ 39.75
02/25/12 new stop loss @ 39.40

Entry on February 21 at $40.25
Earnings Date --/--/--
Average Daily Volume = 8.8 million
Listed on February 18, 2011


VimpelCom - VIP - close: 12.31 change: +0.14

Stop Loss: 11.75
Target(s): 13.25
Current Gain/Loss: unopened
Time Frame: up to its March earnings report
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
03/01 update: VIP is holding up reasonably well and posted a +1.1% gain. I am adjusting our entry point strategy. We will plan to open small bullish positions tomorrow morning but only if both VIP and the S&P 500 index open positive. I am raising our stop loss to $11.75.

Earlier Comments:
VIP is due to report earnings in mid March and we do not want to hold over the report. Keep in mind that VIP is prone to gap open each morning as shares adjust to trading overseas. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for VIP is bullish with a long-term $19.00 target.

Do not enter position unless VIP and the S&P 500 are both positive at the open

Suggested Position: buy VIP stock @ (the open)

03/01/12 adjusted entry point strategy. New stop loss @ 11.75
02/28/12 trade did not open. New trigger: buy a dip at $12.00
02/27/12 trade did not open. try again.

Entry on February xx at $ xx.xx
Earnings Date 03/13/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.7 million
Listed on February 25, 2011


Zumiez Inc. - ZUMZ - close: 31.42 change: +0.19

Stop Loss: 29.75
Target(s): 33.00 or 34.50
Current Gain/Loss: +14.1%
Time Frame: up to the early March earnings report
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/01 update: ZUMZ gapped open higher as expected. Shares hit our conservative target at $33.00. The stock actually spiked to $33.84 before paring its gains. I would not be surprised to see a dip back toward $32.00 before ZUMZ continues higher.

I am not suggesting new positions at this time. Our aggressive target remains $34.50.

NOTE: ZUMZ is due to report earnings in early March. We do not have a confirmed date yet and we do not want to hold over the report. I suspect we have less than two weeks left for this trade.

current Position: Long ZUMZ stock @ 28.75

- or -

buy the Mar $30 call (ZUMZ1217C30) Entry $2.35

03/01/12 conservative target hit at $33.00 (+14.7%)
bid on the March $30 call @ $3.30 (+40.4%)
02/29/12 ZUMZ announced better than expected same-store sales growth of +14.2%. We will adjust our conservative exit target to $33.00. Aggressive target is still $34.50. New stop loss @ 29.75
02/28/12 ZUMZ hit our entry point for new positions at $31.05
March $30 calls entered.
02/25/12 new stop loss @ 29.25
02/24/12 ZUMZ did not meet our new entry point conditions.
02/16/12 new stop loss @ 28.90
02/15/12 exited Feb. $30 calls. bid @ $0.55 (-45%)
02/14/12 prepare to exit Feb. $30 calls at the close tomorrow
02/11/12 new stop loss @ 28.45
02/08/12 new stop loss @ 27.90
02/01/12 Trade opened with ZUMZ gapping higher at $28.75

chart:

Entry on February 01 at $28.75
Earnings Date 03/12/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 627 thousand
Listed on January 31, 2011


BEARISH Play Updates

None. We do not have any active bearish trades.


CLOSED BULLISH PLAYS

Avery Dennison - AVY - close: 29.91 change: -0.59

Stop Loss: 29.75
Target(s): 33.40
Current Gain/Loss: - 4.1%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/01 update: AVY did not participate in the market's widespread rally today. Instead the stock underperformed with a -1.9% decline on above average volume. That's usually a bad sign. Shares also broke down under what should have been support near $30.00 and its 200-dma. Our stop loss was hit at $29.75.

closed Position: Long AVY stock @ 31.05, exit $29.75 (- 4.1%)

- or -

Apr $30 call (AVY1221D30) Entry $1.65 exit $0.85 (-48.8%)

03/01/12 AVY underperformed and broke down under support. Our stop loss was hit at $29.75

chart:

Entry on February 25 at $31.05
Earnings Date 04/26/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.5 million
Listed on February 23, 2011


Constant Contact, Inc. - CTCT - close: 30.00 change: -0.24

Stop Loss: 29.45
Target(s): 34.75
Current Gain/Loss: - 6.6%
Time Frame: 4 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/01 update: CTCT underperformed the market today with a -0.8% decline. Shares did not participate in the market's widespread rally. The stock hit an intraday low of $29.20. Our stop was hit at $29.45.

closed Position: Long CTCT stock @ $31.55 exit $29.45 (- 6.6%)

- or -

Apr $30 call (CTCT1221D30) Entry $2.85 exit $1.50*(-47.3%)

03/01/12 CTCT underperformed the market and hit our stop at $29.45
*exit price on the option is an estimate since the option did not trade at the time CTCT hit our stop loss.

chart:

Entry on February 28 at $31.55
Earnings Date 04/30/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 662 thousand
Listed on February 27, 2011