Editor's Note:
The stock market's rally is getting tired and we're starting to see some stops get hit. DRIV, FCFS and TCK were all stopped out on Friday. I have removed VIP as a candidate.

Current Portfolio:


BULLISH Play Updates

Archer-Daniels-Midland Co - ADM - close: 31.64 change: +0.12

Stop Loss: 29.75
Target(s): 34.00
Current Gain/Loss: + 1.3%
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/03 update: ADM is holding up reasonably well and bucked the market's downtrend on Friday. The stock is currently consolidating sideways under short-term resistance near $31.80(ish). I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

current Position: Long ADM stock @ $31.21

- or -

Long Mar $32 call (ADM1217C32) Entry $0.47

chart:

Entry on February 15 at $31.21
Earnings Date 05/03/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 5.6 million
Listed on February 14, 2011


American Intl. Group - AIG - close: 29.80 change: +0.35

Stop Loss: 28.40
Target(s): 34.50
Current Gain/Loss: unopened
Time Frame: 4 to 8 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
03/03 update: AIG did its part but the S&P 500 opened flat so our new trade on AIG is not open yet. Shares of AIG did see an intraday dip toward its 10-dma before bouncing back to a +1.1% gain. The stock market's major indices look a little tired here with Friday's widespread drop. I am adjusting our entry strategy on AIG. We will use a breakout trigger at $30.50 to launch small bullish positions. We'll raise our stop loss to $28.40, just under Friday's low.

Earlier Comments:
More conservative traders might want to wait for AIG to actually close over the $30.00 level before considering new positions. Our multi-week target is $34.50. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for AIG is bullish with a long-term $42.50 target.

Breakout Trigger @ $30.50

- small positions -

Suggested Position: buy AIG stock @ (trigger)

- or -

buy the Apr $30 call (AIG1221D30)

03/03/12 adjust entry strategy to use a trigger at $30.50, stop loss @ 28.40
03/02/12 trade did not open.

chart:

Entry on March xx at $ xx.xx
Earnings Date 05/07/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 6.1 million
Listed on March 01, 2011


Discover Financial Services - DFS - close: 30.53 change: -0.14

Stop Loss: 29.40
Target(s): 31.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 8.4%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/03 update: DFS saw some minor profit taking on Friday. Shares opened at $30.68 and closed with a -0.4% decline. I still see short-term support near $30 and its 10-dma. It was our plan to go ahead and lock in gains on our March $28 calls by exiting on Friday morning. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Current Position: Long DFS stock @ $28.15

- or -

Long MAR $28 call (DFS1217C28) Entry $1.10

03/02/12 morning exit for the calls @ $2.65 (+140.9%)
03/01/12 prepare to exit our March $28 calls at the open tomorrow. current bid is at $2.65
02/28/12 new stop loss @ 29.40
02/25/12 new stop loss @ 28.45
02/16/12 new stop loss @ 27.95
02/15/12 new stop loss @ 27.75
02/10/12 triggered at $28.15
02/08/12 new trigger @ 28.15, stop loss 27.25
02/07/12 still not open. Adjust strategy to buy a dip at $28.30, stop loss at $27.40
02/06/12 not open yet. try again.

chart:

Entry on February 10 at $28.15
Earnings Date 03/22/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 6.2 million
Listed on February 04, 2011


Energy XXI Ltd. - EXXI - close: 37.47 change: -0.85

Stop Loss: 36.45
Target(s): 42.50
Current Gain/Loss: - 2.5%
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/03 update: Crude oil prices reversed lower on Friday thanks to a bounce in the U.S. dollar. This impacted the energy sector and EXXI gave up -2.2%. I am concerned because prior short-term support at the 10-dma is now acting as short-term resistance. EXXI's short-term posture has turned bearish as it flirts with support near $37.00. More conservative traders may want to exit early while aggressive trades may want to adjust their stop so it's under the $35.00 level, which is the next significant support area. Another concern is last week's action has created a bearish engulfing candlestick (reversal pattern) on the weekly chart. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
The plan was to keep our position size small to limit our risk. Our multi-week target is $42.50. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for EXXI is bullish with a long-term $62 target.

(small positions)

current Position: Long EXXI stock @ $38.43

- or -

Long Mar $40 call (EXXI1217C40) Entry $1.00

03/03/12 trading in EXXI has turned a bit bearish. Readers should be cautious here.

chart:

Entry on February 17 at $38.43
Earnings Date 04/26/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.2 million
Listed on February 16, 2011


Graco Inc. - GGG - close: 51.20 change: -0.52

Stop Loss: 49.75
Target(s): 54.50
Current Option Gain/Loss: + 1.8%
Time Frame: 3 to 4 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/03 update: The market's widespread decline pushed GGG back towards short-term technical support at its rising 10-dma. Aggressive traders could use this dip as a new entry point but I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Please note our new stop loss at $49.75.

Earlier Comments:
The plan was to keep our position size small to limit our risk. Our target is $54.50. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for GGG is bullish with a long-term $77 target.

(small positions)

current position: Long GGG stock @ $50.25

03/03/12 new stop loss @ 49.75
02/27/12 triggered at $50.25
02/25/12 trade did not open. Adjust entry to buy a dip at $50.25
02/23/12 trade did not open, try again.
02/22/12 trade did not open, try again.

chart:

Entry on February 27 at $50.25
Earnings Date 04/26/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 414 thousand
Listed on February 21, 2012


The Hain Celestial Group - HAIN - close: 41.00 change: -0.62

Stop Loss: 39.45
Target(s): 44.75
Current Gain/Loss: + 0.3%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/03 update: After outperforming on Thursday traders decided to take profits in HAIN on Friday. Shares reversed with a -1.4% decline. I am raising our stop loss to $39.45. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

(small positions)

current Position: Long HAIN stock @ $40.85

03/03/12 new stop loss @ 39.45
02/29/12 triggered at $40.85
02/27/12 trade did not open. Adjusting entry strategy to buy HAIN at $40.85 with a stop loss at $38.95
02/25/12 trade did not open. Try again

chart:

Entry on February 29 at $40.85
Earnings Date 05/03/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 430 thousand
Listed on February 23, 2011


Jos. A. Bank Clothiers - JOSB - close: 51.41 change: -0.89

Stop Loss: 49.75
Target(s): 54.00
Current Gain/Loss: + 1.3%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/03 update: It has been a very choppy week for JOSB with sharp intraday moves every day. If the market does see another pullback we can expect JOSB to dip toward the $50.50-50.00 zone again. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
Further gains could spark a short squeeze. The most recent data listed short interest at 19.8% of the 27.5 million-share float.

current Position: long JOSB stock @ $50.75

- or -

Long Mar $50 call (JOSB1217C50) Entry $1.90

02/18/12 adjusted exit target to $54.00.
02/14/12 new stop loss @ 49.75

chart:

Entry on February 13 at $50.75
Earnings Date 03/29/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 301 thousand
Listed on February 11, 2011


NYSE Euronext - NYX - close: 29.72 change: +0.05

Stop Loss: 28.95
Target(s): 34.75
Current Gain/Loss: - 1.1%
Time Frame: 4 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/03 update: Friday was a relatively quiet session for the NYX with shares trading in a 50-cent range. There is still a good chance that NYX pulls back toward the $29.00 level and retests its 200-dma or 200-ema. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
We want to keep our position size small. Our multi-week target is $34.75. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for NYX is bullish with a $41.00 target.

(small positions)

current Position: Long NYX stock @ $30.05

- or -

Long Mar $30 call (NYX1217C30) Entry $0.55

02/29/12 triggered at $30.05
02/28/12 adjusted trigger to $30.05 and stop to $28.95
02/25/12 adjust entry point strategy to buy a dip at $30.25 and adjust stop loss to $28.75
02/23/12 not open yet, try again.

chart:

Entry on February 29 at $30.05
Earnings Date 04/30/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.4 million
Listed on February 22, 2011


Charles Schwab - SCHW - close: 13.82 change: -0.09

Stop Loss: 12.90
Target(s): 14.75
Current Gain/Loss: + 4.3%
Time Frame: 4 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/03 update: SCHW was showing relative strength last week but the rally stalled near the $14.00 level and SCHW spent the last couple of days moving sideways. If the market does see a pullback then SCHW might dip toward the $13.40-13.00 zone.

I am not suggesting new positions at this time. We will raise our stop loss to $12.90.

Earlier Comments:
Our multi-week target is $14.75. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for SCHW is bullish with a $19.00 target.

current Position: Long SCHW stock @ $13.25

- or -

Long Apr $13 call (SCHW1221D13) entry $0.59

03/03/12 new stop loss @ 12.90

chart:

Entry on February 27 at $13.25
Earnings Date 04/16/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 15.9 million
Listed on February 25, 2011


United States Oil Fund (ETF) - USO - close: 40.77 change: -0.98

Stop Loss: 39.90
Target(s): 43.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 1.2%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/03 update: A big bounce in the U.S. dollar on Friday sparked new profit taking in commodities and oil reversed Thursday's gains. The USO gapped open lower at $41.28 and fell to a -2.3% decline. The $40.00 level should still be support I would consider new bullish positions on dips (or bounces) in the $40.25-40.00 zone. More aggressive traders may want to widen their stop loss a bit. Ours might be too tight at $39.90.

Our target to exit is still $43.50 but longer-term traders could aim for the $45.00 area.

Earlier Comments:
We do not want to use the USO for long-term positions. This ETF is constantly rolling over its futures positions over time, which can have a negative impact on the share price. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for USO is bullish with a long-term $58.00 target.

(small positions!)

current Position: Long the ETF @ $40.25

- or -

Long April $40 call (USO1221D40) Entry $2.10

03/01/12 new stop loss @ 39.90
02/29/12 new stop loss @ 39.75
02/25/12 new stop loss @ 39.40

chart:

Entry on February 21 at $40.25
Earnings Date --/--/--
Average Daily Volume = 8.8 million
Listed on February 18, 2011


Zumiez Inc. - ZUMZ - close: 31.53 change: -1.28

Stop Loss: 29.90
Target(s): 33.00 or 34.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 9.6%
Time Frame: exit ahead of the March 8th earnings
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/03 update: Hmm... after Thursday's surge higher ZUMZ suffered some sharp profit taking as if traders did not want to hold over the weekend. The stock lost -3.9% but remains inside its bullish channel higher.

I am not suggesting new positions at this time. ZUMZ is due to report earnings on March 8th and we do not want to hold over the report. More conservative traders may want to go ahead and exit immediately. I am adjusting our stop loss up to $29.90.

current Position: Long ZUMZ stock @ 28.75

- or -

Long Mar $30 call (ZUMZ1217C30) Entry $2.35

03/03/12 new stop loss @ 29.90
03/01/12 conservative target hit at $33.00 (+14.7%)
bid on the March $30 call @ $3.30 (+40.4%)
02/29/12 ZUMZ announced better than expected same-store sales growth of +14.2%. We will adjust our conservative exit target to $33.00. Aggressive target is still $34.50. New stop loss @ 29.75
02/28/12 ZUMZ hit our entry point for new positions at $31.05
March $30 calls entered.
02/25/12 new stop loss @ 29.25
02/24/12 ZUMZ did not meet our new entry point conditions.
02/16/12 new stop loss @ 28.90
02/15/12 exited Feb. $30 calls. bid @ $0.55 (-45%)
02/14/12 prepare to exit Feb. $30 calls at the close tomorrow
02/11/12 new stop loss @ 28.45
02/08/12 new stop loss @ 27.90
02/01/12 Trade opened with ZUMZ gapping higher at $28.75

chart:

Entry on February 01 at $28.75
Earnings Date 03/08/12 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 627 thousand
Listed on January 31, 2011


BEARISH Play Updates

None. We do not have any active bearish trades.


CLOSED BULLISH PLAYS

Digital River - DRIV - close: 17.24 change: -0.37

Stop Loss: 17.45
Target(s): 21.50
Current Gain/Loss: - 5.6%
Time Frame: 4 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/03 update: After the relative weakness in DRIV the last couple of days we suspected that DRIV would see a breakdown on Friday. Sure enough, the stock underperformed with a -2.1% decline. Our stop loss was hit at $17.45. At this point I would not be surprised to see a correction toward the $16.25-16.00 area.

Earlier Comments:
We want to keep our position size small to limit our risk.

(small positions)

closed Position: Long DRIV stock @ $18.50 exit $17.45 (-5.6%)

- or -

Mar $18 call (DRIV1217c18) Entry $1.00 exit $0.13 (-87.0%)

03/02/12 stopped out at $17.45
02/25/12 we may want to consider an early exit to cut our losses.

chart:

Entry on February 17 at $18.50
Earnings Date 04/30/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 727 thousand
Listed on February 13, 2011


First Cash Financial - FCFS - close: 42.40 change: +0.06

Stop Loss: 41.95
Target(s): 49.00
Current Gain/Loss: - 4.6%
Time Frame: 4 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/03 update: Trading in FCFS the last few days has looked bearish. On Thursday night we raised our stop loss to $41.95. The stock saw an intraday spike lower on Friday afternoon that tagged our new stop loss before bouncing back to close up on the session.

closed Position: Long FCFS stock @ $44.00, exit $41.95 (-4.6%)

- or -

Mar $45 call (FCFS1217C45) Entry $1.05 exit $0.15 (-85.7%)

03/02/12 stopped out at $41.95
03/01/12 the intraday reversal is bearish. readers may want to exit early immediately. New stop loss at $41.95

chart:

Entry on February 17 at $44.00
Earnings Date 04/18/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 351 thousand
Listed on February 16, 2011


Teck Resources Ltd. - TCK - close: 38.91 change: -1.16

Stop Loss: 39.49
Target(s): 43.95
Current Gain/Loss: - 4.5%
Time Frame: 2 to 4 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/03 update: TCK did not want to cooperate. It did not help that basic material-related stocks were underperformers the last few days. Our trade opened on Wednesday at the top of its bearish reversal. Shares did not really confirm the reversal until Friday. The stock has now broken its trend line of higher lows and broken under its 50-dma. Our stop loss was hit at $39.49.

closed Position: Long TCK stock @ $41.35 exit $39.49 (-4.5%)

- or -

Apr $42 call (TCK1221D42) Entry $1.94 exit $1.00 (-48.4%)

03/02/12 stopped out at $39.49
02/29/12 trade opened on gap open higher at $41.35, which was above our trigger at $41.30.

chart:

Entry on February 29 at $41.35
Earnings Date 02/09/12
Average Daily Volume = 3.0 million
Listed on February 28, 2011


VimpelCom - VIP - close: 12.16 change: -0.15

Stop Loss: 11.75
Target(s): 13.25
Current Gain/Loss: unopened
Time Frame: up to its March earnings report
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
03/03 update: VIP gapped down at the open on Friday, negating our entry point. Considering how the market's major indices look tired here and that VIP has not yet hit our trigger I am removing it from the newsletter. Earnings are coming up in the next two weeks. Let's wait and see how investors react to VIP's earnings results.

Our Trade Did Not Open.

03/03/12 removed VIP from the newsletter.
03/01/12 adjusted entry point strategy. New stop loss @ 11.75
02/28/12 trade did not open. New trigger: buy a dip at $12.00
02/27/12 trade did not open. try again.

chart:

Entry on February xx at $ xx.xx
Earnings Date 03/13/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.7 million
Listed on February 25, 2011