Editor's Note:
Our new bearish trades (ACI and AKS) are off to a strong start this week. Meanwhile AIG was triggered and EXXI was stopped out.

Current Portfolio:


BULLISH Play Updates

Archer-Daniels-Midland Co - ADM - close: 31.65 change: +0.01

Stop Loss: 29.75
Target(s): 34.00
Current Gain/Loss: + 1.4%
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/05 update: ADM tried to rally but failed at short-term resistance near $31.80 again. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

current Position: Long ADM stock @ $31.21

- or -

Long Mar $32 call (ADM1217C32) Entry $0.47

Entry on February 15 at $31.21
Earnings Date 05/03/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 5.6 million
Listed on February 14, 2011


American Intl. Group - AIG - close: 30.39 change: +0.59

Stop Loss: 28.40
Target(s): 34.50
Current Gain/Loss: - 0.3%
Time Frame: 4 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/05 update: Wall Street was applauding news that AIG sold its stake in AIA group for $6 billion as the company seeks to pay back its $182 billion bailout to the government. Shares of AIG spiked to $31.30 and settled with a +1.9% gain. Our trigger to poen bullish positions was hit at $30.50.

Earlier Comments:
More conservative traders might want to wait for AIG to actually close over the $30.00 level before considering new positions. Our multi-week target is $34.50. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for AIG is bullish with a long-term $42.50 target.

- small positions -

current Position: Long AIG stock @ $30.50

- or -

Long Apr $30 call (AIG1221D30) Entry $1.88

03/05/12 triggered at $30.50
03/03/12 adjust entry strategy to use a trigger at $30.50, stop loss @ 28.40
03/02/12 trade did not open.

Entry on March 05 at $30.50
Earnings Date 05/07/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 6.1 million
Listed on March 01, 2011


Discover Financial Services - DFS - close: 30.49 change: -0.04

Stop Loss: 29.75
Target(s): 31.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 8.4%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/05 update: Traders started buying the dip this afternoon and DFS pared its losses to just -0.1%. I am raising our stop loss up to $29.75. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Current Position: Long DFS stock @ $28.15

- or -

(closed)
MAR $28 call (DFS1217C28) Entry $1.10 exit $2.65 (+140.9%)

03/05/12 new stop loss @ 29.75
03/02/12 morning exit for the calls @ $2.65 (+140.9%)
03/01/12 prepare to exit our March $28 calls at the open tomorrow. current bid is at $2.65
02/28/12 new stop loss @ 29.40
02/25/12 new stop loss @ 28.45
02/16/12 new stop loss @ 27.95
02/15/12 new stop loss @ 27.75
02/10/12 triggered at $28.15
02/08/12 new trigger @ 28.15, stop loss 27.25
02/07/12 still not open. Adjust strategy to buy a dip at $28.30, stop loss at $27.40
02/06/12 not open yet. try again.

Entry on February 10 at $28.15
Earnings Date 03/22/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 6.2 million
Listed on February 04, 2011


Graco Inc. - GGG - close: 50.50 change: -0.65

Stop Loss: 49.75
Target(s): 54.50
Current Option Gain/Loss: + 0.5%
Time Frame: 3 to 4 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/05 update: Hmm... on a short-term basis today's close under the 10-dma is bearish. GGG should still have some price support near $50.00 but if the market rally starts to breakdown then GGG will likely hit our stop loss at $49.75. I am not suggesting new positions.

Earlier Comments:
The plan was to keep our position size small to limit our risk. Our target is $54.50. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for GGG is bullish with a long-term $77 target.

(small positions)

current position: Long GGG stock @ $50.25

03/03/12 new stop loss @ 49.75
02/27/12 triggered at $50.25
02/25/12 trade did not open. Adjust entry to buy a dip at $50.25
02/23/12 trade did not open, try again.
02/22/12 trade did not open, try again.

Entry on February 27 at $50.25
Earnings Date 04/26/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 414 thousand
Listed on February 21, 2012


The Hain Celestial Group - HAIN - close: 41.11 change: +0.11

Stop Loss: 39.75
Target(s): 44.75
Current Gain/Loss: + 0.6%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/05 update: HAIN produced a minor bounce but it's +0.2% gain outperformed the market. I am not suggesting new positions at this time. We will raise our stop loss to $39.75.

(small positions)

current Position: Long HAIN stock @ $40.85

03/05/12 new stop loss @ 39.75
03/03/12 new stop loss @ 39.45
02/29/12 triggered at $40.85
02/27/12 trade did not open. Adjusting entry strategy to buy HAIN at $40.85 with a stop loss at $38.95
02/25/12 trade did not open. Try again

Entry on February 29 at $40.85
Earnings Date 05/03/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 430 thousand
Listed on February 23, 2011


Jos. A. Bank Clothiers - JOSB - close: 51.71 change: +0.30

Stop Loss: 49.75
Target(s): 54.00
Current Gain/Loss: + 1.8%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/05 update: Traders bought the dip this morning and JOSB ended the session up +0.5%. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
Further gains could spark a short squeeze. The most recent data listed short interest at 19.8% of the 27.5 million-share float.

current Position: long JOSB stock @ $50.75

- or -

Long Mar $50 call (JOSB1217C50) Entry $1.90

02/18/12 adjusted exit target to $54.00.
02/14/12 new stop loss @ 49.75

Entry on February 13 at $50.75
Earnings Date 03/29/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 301 thousand
Listed on February 11, 2011


NYSE Euronext - NYX - close: 29.45 change: -0.27

Stop Loss: 28.95
Target(s): 34.75
Current Gain/Loss: - 2.0%
Time Frame: 4 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/05 update: NYX is still drifting lower. Shares tagged their 20-dma this afternoon. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
We want to keep our position size small. Our multi-week target is $34.75. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for NYX is bullish with a $41.00 target.

(small positions)

current Position: Long NYX stock @ $30.05

- or -

Long Mar $30 call (NYX1217C30) Entry $0.55

02/29/12 triggered at $30.05
02/28/12 adjusted trigger to $30.05 and stop to $28.95
02/25/12 adjust entry point strategy to buy a dip at $30.25 and adjust stop loss to $28.75
02/23/12 not open yet, try again.

Entry on February 29 at $30.05
Earnings Date 04/30/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.4 million
Listed on February 22, 2011


Charles Schwab - SCHW - close: 13.83 change: +0.01

Stop Loss: 12.90
Target(s): 14.75
Current Gain/Loss: + 4.3%
Time Frame: 4 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/05 update: SCHW rebounded off its morning lows near $13.63 and managed to close in positive territory, albeit by a very narrow margin. There is no change from my prior comments. More conservative traders may want to take profits now.

I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
Our multi-week target is $14.75. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for SCHW is bullish with a $19.00 target.

current Position: Long SCHW stock @ $13.25

- or -

Long Apr $13 call (SCHW1221D13) entry $0.59

03/03/12 new stop loss @ 12.90

Entry on February 27 at $13.25
Earnings Date 04/16/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 15.9 million
Listed on February 25, 2011


United States Oil Fund (ETF) - USO - close: 40.97 change: +0.20

Stop Loss: 39.90
Target(s): 43.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 1.7%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/05 update: Most commodities traded lower on concerns about a slowdown in China. Yet oil managed to eke out a gain as tensions continue to rise between the West and Iran. There is no change from my prior comments:

The USO gapped open lower at $41.28 and fell to a -2.3% decline. The $40.00 level should still be support I would consider new bullish positions on dips (or bounces) in the $40.25-40.00 zone. More aggressive traders may want to widen their stop loss a bit. Ours might be too tight at $39.90.

Our target to exit is still $43.50 but longer-term traders could aim for the $45.00 area.

Earlier Comments:
We do not want to use the USO for long-term positions. This ETF is constantly rolling over its futures positions over time, which can have a negative impact on the share price. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for USO is bullish with a long-term $58.00 target.

(small positions!)

current Position: Long the ETF @ $40.25

- or -

Long April $40 call (USO1221D40) Entry $2.10

03/01/12 new stop loss @ 39.90
02/29/12 new stop loss @ 39.75
02/25/12 new stop loss @ 39.40

Entry on February 21 at $40.25
Earnings Date --/--/--
Average Daily Volume = 8.8 million
Listed on February 18, 2011


Zumiez Inc. - ZUMZ - close: 31.34 change: -0.19

Stop Loss: 29.90
Target(s): 33.00 or 34.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 9.0%
Time Frame: exit ahead of the March 8th earnings
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/05 update: ZUMZ spiked lower this morning but shares managed to pare their losses. We don't have much time left. Earnings are coming up on March 8th and we do not want to hold over the report.

I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

current Position: Long ZUMZ stock @ 28.75

- or -

Long Mar $30 call (ZUMZ1217C30) Entry $2.35

03/03/12 new stop loss @ 29.90
03/01/12 conservative target hit at $33.00 (+14.7%)
bid on the March $30 call @ $3.30 (+40.4%)
02/29/12 ZUMZ announced better than expected same-store sales growth of +14.2%. We will adjust our conservative exit target to $33.00. Aggressive target is still $34.50. New stop loss @ 29.75
02/28/12 ZUMZ hit our entry point for new positions at $31.05
March $30 calls entered.
02/25/12 new stop loss @ 29.25
02/24/12 ZUMZ did not meet our new entry point conditions.
02/16/12 new stop loss @ 28.90
02/15/12 exited Feb. $30 calls. bid @ $0.55 (-45%)
02/14/12 prepare to exit Feb. $30 calls at the close tomorrow
02/11/12 new stop loss @ 28.45
02/08/12 new stop loss @ 27.90
02/01/12 Trade opened with ZUMZ gapping higher at $28.75

Entry on February 01 at $28.75
Earnings Date 03/08/12 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 627 thousand
Listed on January 31, 2011


BEARISH Play Updates

Arch Coal Inc. - ACI - close: 12.20 change: -0.69

Stop Loss: 13.75
Target(s): 10.10
Current Gain/Loss: + 5.2%
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/05 update: ACI continues to underperform and our new trade is off to a strong start. Shares opened at $12.87 and then plunged to a -5.3% decline. I am lowering our stop loss to $13.75.

Earlier Comments:
Being short ACI is a popular trade with short interest already at 16.5% of the 210-million share float. That does raise the risk of a short squeeze should the stock (or industry) suddenly find strength.

Our multi-week target is $10.10. The $10.00 level could be psychological support.

(Small positions)

current Position: short ACI stock @ $12.87

- or -

Long Apr $12 PUT (ACI1221P12) Entry $0.49

03/05/12 new stop loss @ 13.75

Entry on March 05 at $12.87
Earnings Date 04/26/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 9.4 million
Listed on March 03, 2011


AK Steel - AKS - close: 7.29 change: -0.47

Stop Loss: 8.15
Target(s): 7.05
Current Gain/Loss: + 6.0%
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/05 update: Our new AKS trade is also off to a strong start. Shares opened at $7.76 and then plunged to a -6.0% decline. I am not suggesting new positions at this time. Our initial target to take profits is at $7.05. More aggressive traders may want to aim lower.

Earlier Comments:
Being short AKS is a popular trade with short interest at 23% of the 108 million-share float. That does raise the risk of a short squeeze if the stock suddenly sees any strength. Thus readers may want to limit their risk by trading the options instead.

(Small positions)

current Position: short AKS @ $7.76

- or -

Long Apr $8.00 PUT (AKS1221P8) Entry $0.65

Entry on March 05 at $ 7.76
Earnings Date 04/26/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 7.6 million
Listed on March 03, 2011


CLOSED BULLISH PLAYS

Energy XXI Ltd. - EXXI - close: 36.10 change: -1.37

Stop Loss: 36.45
Target(s): 42.50
Current Gain/Loss: - 5.1%
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/05 update: The correction in EXXI accelerated and shares lost -3.6%. Our stop loss was hit at $36.45 (-5.1%).

Earlier Comments:
The plan was to keep our position size small to limit our risk.

(small positions)

closed Position: Long EXXI stock @ $38.43 exit $36.45 (-5.1%)

- or -

Mar $40 call (EXXI1217C40) Entry $1.00 exit $0.10 (-90%)

03/05/12 stopped out at $36.45
03/03/12 trading in EXXI has turned a bit bearish. Readers should be cautious here.

chart:

Entry on February 17 at $38.43
Earnings Date 04/26/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.2 million
Listed on February 16, 2011