Editor's Note:
The stock market delivered its worst day for 2012 with a widespread sell-off. This pushed AKS to our bearish target. We also saw DFS, GGG, and NYX get stopped out.

Current Portfolio:


BULLISH Play Updates

Archer-Daniels-Midland Co - ADM - close: 30.39 change: -1.26

Stop Loss: 29.75
Target(s): 34.00
Current Gain/Loss: - 2.6%
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/06 update: Ouch! ADM really underperformed today with a -3.9% decline. Investors may have been unnerved that ADM said two of its top execs were retiring and that the company was consolidating two smaller divisions into existing larger ones. Shares have fallen below what should have been support near $30.50. The next level of support is $30.00 with the 50-dma. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

current Position: Long ADM stock @ $31.21

- or -

Long Mar $32 call (ADM1217C32) Entry $0.47

Entry on February 15 at $31.21
Earnings Date 05/03/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 5.6 million
Listed on February 14, 2011


American Intl. Group - AIG - close: 29.05 change: -1.34

Stop Loss: 28.40
Target(s): 34.50
Current Gain/Loss: - 4.7%
Time Frame: 4 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/06 update: Financial stocks were hit hard today and AIG was no exception. Shares actually underperformed with a -4.4% plunge toward short-term technical support at the 10-dma. I am concerned because Monday's breakout above resistance at $30.00 now looks like a bull-trap pattern. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
Our multi-week target is $34.50. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for AIG is bullish with a long-term $42.50 target.

- small positions -

current Position: Long AIG stock @ $30.50

- or -

Long Apr $30 call (AIG1221D30) Entry $1.88

03/06/12 warning! the breakout has reversed!
03/05/12 triggered at $30.50
03/03/12 adjust entry strategy to use a trigger at $30.50, stop loss @ 28.40
03/02/12 trade did not open.

Entry on March 05 at $30.50
Earnings Date 05/07/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 6.1 million
Listed on March 01, 2011


The Hain Celestial Group - HAIN - close: 40.01 change: -1.10

Stop Loss: 39.75
Target(s): 44.75
Current Gain/Loss: - 2.6%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/06 update: HAIN also underperformed today with a sharp -2.6% decline. There was no news to explain the relative weakness. Shares paused at support near $40.00 and its 30-dma. If there is any further weakness tomorrow HAIN will likely hit our stop loss at $39.75.

(small positions)

current Position: Long HAIN stock @ $40.85

03/05/12 new stop loss @ 39.75
03/03/12 new stop loss @ 39.45
02/29/12 triggered at $40.85
02/27/12 trade did not open. Adjusting entry strategy to buy HAIN at $40.85 with a stop loss at $38.95
02/25/12 trade did not open. Try again

Entry on February 29 at $40.85
Earnings Date 05/03/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 430 thousand
Listed on February 23, 2011


Jos. A. Bank Clothiers - JOSB - close: 51.13 change: -0.58

Stop Loss: 49.75
Target(s): 54.00
Current Gain/Loss: + 0.7%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/06 update: JOSB was slowly drifting lower all day long. If the market continues to sink we could see JOSB testing support near $50.00. Readers will want to seriously consider exiting any March call positions now. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
Further gains could spark a short squeeze. The most recent data listed short interest at 19.8% of the 27.5 million-share float.

current Position: long JOSB stock @ $50.75

- or -

Long Mar $50 call (JOSB1217C50) Entry $1.90

03/06/12 readers may want to cut their losses on any March call positions now.
02/18/12 adjusted exit target to $54.00.
02/14/12 new stop loss @ 49.75

Entry on February 13 at $50.75
Earnings Date 03/29/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 301 thousand
Listed on February 11, 2011


Charles Schwab - SCHW - close: 13.57 change: -0.27

Stop Loss: 12.90
Target(s): 14.75
Current Gain/Loss: + 2.4%
Time Frame: 4 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/06 update: SCHW dipped toward short-term support near $13.50 and its 10-dma. There is no change from my prior comments. More conservative traders may want to take profits now.

I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
Our multi-week target is $14.75. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for SCHW is bullish with a $19.00 target.

current Position: Long SCHW stock @ $13.25

- or -

Long Apr $13 call (SCHW1221D13) entry $0.59

03/03/12 new stop loss @ 12.90

Entry on February 27 at $13.25
Earnings Date 04/16/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 15.9 million
Listed on February 25, 2011


Targa Resources - TRGP - close: 44.21 change: -0.57

Stop Loss: 43.75
Target(s): 48.00
Current Gain/Loss: unopened
Time Frame: 4 to 8 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
03/06 update: TRGP held up reasonably well with a -1.2% pull back. Shares essentially churned sideways near $44.00. The overall trend is unchanged.

I am suggesting small bullish positions if TRGP can trade at $45.05 and we'll use a stop loss at 43.75. Our target is $48.00.

Trigger @ $45.05 (small positions)

Suggested Position: buy TRGP stock @ 45.05

Entry on March xx at $ xx.xx
Earnings Date --/--/-- (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 215 thousand
Listed on March 05, 2011


United States Oil Fund (ETF) - USO - close: 40.13 change: -0.84

Stop Loss: 39.90
Target(s): 43.50
Current Gain/Loss: - 0.3%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/06 update: Concerns over a slowdown in China and Europe helped fuel a bounce in the U.S. dollar and a sell-off in commodities. The USO gapped open lower near support at the $40 level. The intraday low was $39.97. If there is any follow through tomorrow the USO will likely hit our stop loss at $39.90.

Earlier Comments:
We do not want to use the USO for long-term positions. This ETF is constantly rolling over its futures positions over time, which can have a negative impact on the share price. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for USO is bullish with a long-term $58.00 target.

(small positions!)

current Position: Long the ETF @ $40.25

- or -

Long April $40 call (USO1221D40) Entry $2.10

03/01/12 new stop loss @ 39.90
02/29/12 new stop loss @ 39.75
02/25/12 new stop loss @ 39.40

Entry on February 21 at $40.25
Earnings Date --/--/--
Average Daily Volume = 8.8 million
Listed on February 18, 2011


Zumiez Inc. - ZUMZ - close: 30.70 change: -0.64

Stop Loss: 29.90
Target(s): 33.00 or 34.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 6.7%
Time Frame: exit ahead of the March 8th earnings
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/06 update: Uh-oh! Readers may want to exit early. The pullback in ZUMZ was not that bad (-2.0%) but shares did close outside their rising bullish channel. The stock should still have support near $30.00 and its 50-dma but we have a stop loss at $29.90.

I am suggesting we exit positions tomorrow (March 7th) at the closing bell assuming ZUMZ does not hit our stop (or target) tomorrow.

current Position: Long ZUMZ stock @ 28.75

- or -

Long Mar $30 call (ZUMZ1217C30) Entry $2.35

03/06/12 prepare to exit at the close tomorrow
03/03/12 new stop loss @ 29.90
03/01/12 conservative target hit at $33.00 (+14.7%)
bid on the March $30 call @ $3.30 (+40.4%)
02/29/12 ZUMZ announced better than expected same-store sales growth of +14.2%. We will adjust our conservative exit target to $33.00. Aggressive target is still $34.50. New stop loss @ 29.75
02/28/12 ZUMZ hit our entry point for new positions at $31.05
March $30 calls entered.
02/25/12 new stop loss @ 29.25
02/24/12 ZUMZ did not meet our new entry point conditions.
02/16/12 new stop loss @ 28.90
02/15/12 exited Feb. $30 calls. bid @ $0.55 (-45%)
02/14/12 prepare to exit Feb. $30 calls at the close tomorrow
02/11/12 new stop loss @ 28.45
02/08/12 new stop loss @ 27.90
02/01/12 Trade opened with ZUMZ gapping higher at $28.75

Entry on February 01 at $28.75
Earnings Date 03/08/12 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 627 thousand
Listed on January 31, 2011


BEARISH Play Updates

Arch Coal Inc. - ACI - close: 11.89 change: -0.31

Stop Loss: 13.75
Target(s): 10.10
Current Gain/Loss: + 7.6%
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/06 update: The sell-off in ACI continues with a -2.5% decline. Shares did pare their losses with a bounce off the intraday low of $11.56. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
Being short ACI is a popular trade with short interest already at 16.5% of the 210-million share float. That does raise the risk of a short squeeze should the stock (or industry) suddenly find strength.

Our multi-week target is $10.10. The $10.00 level could be psychological support.

(Small positions)

current Position: short ACI stock @ $12.87

- or -

Long Apr $12 PUT (ACI1221P12) Entry $0.49

03/05/12 new stop loss @ 13.75

Entry on March 05 at $12.87
Earnings Date 04/26/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 9.4 million
Listed on March 03, 2011


CLOSED BULLISH PLAYS

Discover Financial Services - DFS - close: 29.93 change: -0.56

Stop Loss: 29.75
Target(s): 31.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 5.6%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/06 update: Weakness in the financials set DFS to a -1.8% decline. Shares hit our stop loss at $29.75 intraday.

Current Position: Long DFS stock @ $28.15 exit $29.75 (+5.6%)

- or -

(closed)
MAR $28 call (DFS1217C28) Entry $1.10 exit $2.65 (+140.9%)

03/06/12 stopped out at $29.75 +5.6%
03/05/12 new stop loss @ 29.75
03/02/12 morning exit for the calls @ $2.65 (+140.9%)
03/01/12 prepare to exit our March $28 calls at the open tomorrow. current bid is at $2.65
02/28/12 new stop loss @ 29.40
02/25/12 new stop loss @ 28.45
02/16/12 new stop loss @ 27.95
02/15/12 new stop loss @ 27.75
02/10/12 triggered at $28.15
02/08/12 new trigger @ 28.15, stop loss 27.25
02/07/12 still not open. Adjust strategy to buy a dip at $28.30, stop loss at $27.40
02/06/12 not open yet. try again.

chart:

Entry on February 10 at $28.15
Earnings Date 03/22/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 6.2 million
Listed on February 04, 2011


Graco Inc. - GGG - close: 48.96 change: -1.59

Stop Loss: 49.75
Target(s): 54.50
Current Option Gain/Loss: - 1.0%
Time Frame: 3 to 4 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/06 update: Ouch! GGG gapped open lower at $49.72, which is underneath our stop loss at $49.75. The play was closed immediately. I could not find any specific news behind today's relative weakness (-3.1% decline). If GGG continues to correct lower the next area of significant support looks like the $45.00 level.

Earlier Comments:
The plan was to keep our position size small to limit our risk.

(small positions)

closed position: Long GGG stock @ $50.25 exit $49.72 (-1.0%)

03/06/12 stopped out at $49.72, a gap down under our stop
03/03/12 new stop loss @ 49.75
02/27/12 triggered at $50.25
02/25/12 trade did not open. Adjust entry to buy a dip at $50.25
02/23/12 trade did not open, try again.
02/22/12 trade did not open, try again.

chart:

Entry on February 27 at $50.25
Earnings Date 04/26/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 414 thousand
Listed on February 21, 2012


NYSE Euronext - NYX - close: 28.45 change: -0.91

Stop Loss: 28.95
Target(s): 34.75
Current Gain/Loss: - 3.6%
Time Frame: 4 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/06 update: NYX was hammered lower today with a -3.0% declines. Shares saw a big gap down at the open with NYX opening at $29.03. The stock broke down under what should have been support near $29.00 and its simple 200-dma and exponential 200-dma. Our stop loss was hit at $28.95.

Earlier Comments:
We want to keep our position size small.

(small positions)

closed Position: Long NYX stock @ $30.05 exit $28.95 (-3.6%)

- or -

Mar $30 call (NYX1217C30) Entry $0.55 exit $0.15 (-72.7%)

03/06/12 stopped out at $28.95
02/29/12 triggered at $30.05
02/28/12 adjusted trigger to $30.05 and stop to $28.95
02/25/12 adjust entry point strategy to buy a dip at $30.25 and adjust stop loss to $28.75
02/23/12 not open yet, try again.

chart:

Entry on February 29 at $30.05
Earnings Date 04/30/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.4 million
Listed on February 22, 2011


CLOSED BEARISH PLAYS

AK Steel - AKS - close: 6.91 change: -0.38

Stop Loss: 8.15
Target(s): 7.05
Current Gain/Loss: + 9.2%
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/06 update: Target achieved. The sell-off in AKS is accelerating. Shares gapped open lower at $7.04. This is actually underneath our planned exit at $7.05. Shares hit an intraday low of $6.80.

(Small positions)

closed Position: short AKS @ $7.76 exit $7.04 (+9.2%)

- or -

Apr $8.00 PUT (AKS1221P8) Entry $0.65 exit $1.19 (+83.0%)

03/06/12 target exceeded. AKS gapped open lower at $7.04

chart:

Entry on March 05 at $ 7.76
Earnings Date 04/26/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 7.6 million
Listed on March 03, 2011