Editor's Note:
After the closing bell the U.S. government announced plans to sell up to $6 billion worth of AIG stock. This could have a big impact on shares of AIG tomorrow.

Meanwhile TRGP was triggered. We closed our ZUMZ trade.

Current Portfolio:


BULLISH Play Updates

Archer-Daniels-Midland Co - ADM - close: 31.05 change: +0.66

Stop Loss: 29.95
Target(s): 34.00
Current Gain/Loss: - 0.5%
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/07 update: ADM recovered a good chunk of yesterday's losses with a +2.1% bounce. Unfortunately today is just an "inside day" suggesting indecision by investors. We need to see shares trade over $31.26 our the up trend remains in trouble. I am raising our stop loss to $29.95. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

current Position: Long ADM stock @ $31.21

- or -

Long Mar $32 call (ADM1217C32) Entry $0.47

03/07/12 new stop loss @ 29.95

Entry on February 15 at $31.21
Earnings Date 05/03/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 5.6 million
Listed on February 14, 2011


American Intl. Group - AIG - close: 29.45 change: +0.40

Stop Loss: 28.40
Target(s): 34.50
Current Gain/Loss: - 3.4%
Time Frame: 4 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/07 update: AIG outperformed the major indices today with a +1.3% gain. Unfortunately the bounce rolled over intraday under the $30.00 level so the move doesn't look that bullish. If that wasn't disappointing enough there were headlines out after the closing bell that could cause trouble tomorrow.

As you probably know the U.S. government provided a massive bailout for AIG during the financial crisis. They'd like to get their money back and tonight the U.S. Treasury office announced plans to sell about $6 billion worth of AIG stock. Fortune magazine said the U.S. government's average cost of its AIG stock is around $28.50. Tonight's press release said they'll sell $6 billion in stock at $29.00 a share. AIG will buy back half of that ($3 Billion). That means we're going to see $3 billion of stock come to market

This news could definitely cause some volatility tomorrow. AIG was already trading lower near $28.90 in after hours trading.

I am not suggesting new positions at this time. Our stop loss is at $28.40.

Earlier Comments:
Our multi-week target is $34.50. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for AIG is bullish with a long-term $42.50 target.

- small positions -

current Position: Long AIG stock @ $30.50

- or -

Long Apr $30 call (AIG1221D30) Entry $1.88

03/07/12 after the closing bell the U.S. gov. announces plans to sell $6 billion in AIG stock
03/06/12 warning! the breakout has reversed!
03/05/12 triggered at $30.50
03/03/12 adjust entry strategy to use a trigger at $30.50, stop loss @ 28.40
03/02/12 trade did not open.

Entry on March 05 at $30.50
Earnings Date 05/07/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 6.1 million
Listed on March 01, 2011


The Hain Celestial Group - HAIN - close: 40.52 change: +0.51

Stop Loss: 39.75
Target(s): 44.75
Current Gain/Loss: - 0.8%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/07 update: HAIN recovered almost half of yesterday's losses with a bounce off the $40.00 level. I remain cautious on HAIN and we're not suggesting new positions at this time.

(small positions)

current Position: Long HAIN stock @ $40.85

03/05/12 new stop loss @ 39.75
03/03/12 new stop loss @ 39.45
02/29/12 triggered at $40.85
02/27/12 trade did not open. Adjusting entry strategy to buy HAIN at $40.85 with a stop loss at $38.95
02/25/12 trade did not open. Try again

Entry on February 29 at $40.85
Earnings Date 05/03/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 430 thousand
Listed on February 23, 2011


Jos. A. Bank Clothiers - JOSB - close: 52.30 change: +1.17

Stop Loss: 50.75
Target(s): 54.75
Current Gain/Loss: + 3.0%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/07 update: JOSB is showing relative strength with a bounce off the $51.00 level and a +2.2% gain on the session. The stock looks poised to breakout of this three-week consolidation. I am raising our exit target to $54.75. I am also raising our stop loss to $50.75. More conservative traders may want to go ahead and take profits now, especially if you're holding the March calls. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
Further gains could spark a short squeeze. The most recent data listed short interest at 19.8% of the 27.5 million-share float.

current Position: long JOSB stock @ $50.75

- or -

Long Mar $50 call (JOSB1217C50) Entry $1.90

03/07/12 new stop loss @ 50.75, adjust exit to $54.75
03/06/12 readers may want to cut their losses on any March call positions now.
02/18/12 adjusted exit target to $54.00.
02/14/12 new stop loss @ 49.75

Entry on February 13 at $50.75
Earnings Date 03/29/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 301 thousand
Listed on February 11, 2011


Rite Aid Corp. - RAD - close: 1.69 change: +0.03

Stop Loss: 1.54
Target(s): 1.85
Current Gain/Loss: + 1.8%
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/07 update: Our new RAD play is off to a strong start. Shares opened at $1.66 and rallied to a +1.8% gain and a new relative high.

Small Positions

current Position: Long RAD stock @ $1.66

Entry on March 07 at $1.66
Earnings Date 04/12/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 8.7 million
Listed on March 06, 2011


Charles Schwab - SCHW - close: 13.80 change: +0.24

Stop Loss: 12.90
Target(s): 14.75
Current Gain/Loss: + 4.1%
Time Frame: 4 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/07 update: SCHW recovered almost all of yesterday's losses. Shares actually rallied to $14.02 intraday before paring its gains and closing with a +1.7% advance. More conservative traders may want to take profits now in the April $13 calls (bid @ $1.05, +78%).

I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
Our multi-week target is $14.75. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for SCHW is bullish with a $19.00 target.

current Position: Long SCHW stock @ $13.25

- or -

Long Apr $13 call (SCHW1221D13) entry $0.59

03/03/12 new stop loss @ 12.90

Entry on February 27 at $13.25
Earnings Date 04/16/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 15.9 million
Listed on February 25, 2011


Targa Resources - TRGP - close: 44.88 change: +0.67

Stop Loss: 43.75
Target(s): 48.00
Current Gain/Loss: - 0.3%
Time Frame: 4 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/07 update: Our TRGP trade has been triggered. Shares attempted to breakout from the $44-45 trading range. The stock hit $45.06 this afternoon. Our trigger to open bullish positions was at $45.05. If you're still looking for an entry point wait for a rally past $45.10 instead.

(small positions)

current Position: Long TRGP stock @ 45.05

Entry on March 07 at $45.05
Earnings Date --/--/-- (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 215 thousand
Listed on March 05, 2011


United States Oil Fund (ETF) - USO - close: 40.61 change: +0.48

Stop Loss: 39.90
Target(s): 43.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 0.8%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/07 update: The USO came awfully close to hitting our stop loss today. The intraday low was $39.91 and our stop is at $39.90. Shares rebounded with a +1.1% gain. Technically the $40.00 level is support so a bounce from this level could be used as a bullish entry point.

Earlier Comments:
We do not want to use the USO for long-term positions. This ETF is constantly rolling over its futures positions over time, which can have a negative impact on the share price. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for USO is bullish with a long-term $58.00 target.

(small positions!)

current Position: Long the ETF @ $40.25

- or -

Long April $40 call (USO1221D40) Entry $2.10

03/01/12 new stop loss @ 39.90
02/29/12 new stop loss @ 39.75
02/25/12 new stop loss @ 39.40

Entry on February 21 at $40.25
Earnings Date --/--/--
Average Daily Volume = 8.8 million
Listed on February 18, 2011


BEARISH Play Updates

Arch Coal Inc. - ACI - close: 11.85 change: -0.04

Stop Loss: 13.75
Target(s): 10.10
Current Gain/Loss: + 7.9%
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/07 update: ACI continues to underperform. Instead of bouncing with the broader market shares lost -0.3% after struggling with the $12.00 level most of the session. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
Being short ACI is a popular trade with short interest already at 16.5% of the 210-million share float. That does raise the risk of a short squeeze should the stock (or industry) suddenly find strength.

Our multi-week target is $10.10. The $10.00 level could be psychological support.

(Small positions)

current Position: short ACI stock @ $12.87

- or -

Long Apr $12 PUT (ACI1221P12) Entry $0.49

03/05/12 new stop loss @ 13.75

Entry on March 05 at $12.87
Earnings Date 04/26/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 9.4 million
Listed on March 03, 2011


CLOSED BULLISH PLAYS

Zumiez Inc. - ZUMZ - close: 31.12 change: +0.42

Stop Loss: 29.90
Target(s): 33.00 or 34.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 8.2%
Time Frame: exit ahead of the March 8th earnings
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/07 update: The plan was to exit our ZUMZ positions at the closing bell tonight to avoid holding over the earnings announcement tomorrow night.

closed Position: Long ZUMZ stock @ 28.75 exit $31.12 (+8.2%)

- or -

Mar $30 call (ZUMZ1217C30) Entry $2.35 exit $2.10 (-10.6%)

03/07/12 planned exit at the close
03/06/12 prepare to exit at the close tomorrow
03/03/12 new stop loss @ 29.90
03/01/12 conservative target hit at $33.00 (+14.7%)
bid on the March $30 call @ $3.30 (+40.4%)
02/29/12 ZUMZ announced better than expected same-store sales growth of +14.2%. We will adjust our conservative exit target to $33.00. Aggressive target is still $34.50. New stop loss @ 29.75
02/28/12 ZUMZ hit our entry point for new positions at $31.05
March $30 calls entered.
02/25/12 new stop loss @ 29.25
02/24/12 ZUMZ did not meet our new entry point conditions.
02/16/12 new stop loss @ 28.90
02/15/12 exited Feb. $30 calls. bid @ $0.55 (-45%)
02/14/12 prepare to exit Feb. $30 calls at the close tomorrow
02/11/12 new stop loss @ 28.45
02/08/12 new stop loss @ 27.90
02/01/12 Trade opened with ZUMZ gapping higher at $28.75

chart:

Entry on February 01 at $28.75
Earnings Date 03/08/12 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 627 thousand
Listed on January 31, 2011