Editor's Note:
The small cap Russell 2000 index helped lead the market higher with a +1.3% gain. Unfortunately that could not save our AIG trade and JOSB dropped thanks to bad news from a rival.

Current Portfolio:


BULLISH Play Updates

Archer-Daniels-Midland Co - ADM - close: 31.11 change: +0.06

Stop Loss: 29.95
Target(s): 34.00
Current Gain/Loss: - 0.3%
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/08 update: ADM continues to see a little intraday volatility. The morning rally failed at its 10-dma but traders bought the dip this afternoon. I am concerned that the failed rally this morning means ADM could be rolling over. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

current Position: Long ADM stock @ $31.21

- or -

Long Mar $32 call (ADM1217C32) Entry $0.47

03/07/12 new stop loss @ 29.95

Entry on February 15 at $31.21
Earnings Date 05/03/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 5.6 million
Listed on February 14, 2011


The Hain Celestial Group - HAIN - close: 40.62 change: +0.10

Stop Loss: 39.75
Target(s): 44.75
Current Gain/Loss: - 0.5%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/08 update: Trading in HAIN today was not very inspiring. The stock chopped around and barely closed positive. I remain cautious on HAIN and we're not suggesting new positions at this time.

(small positions)

current Position: Long HAIN stock @ $40.85

03/05/12 new stop loss @ 39.75
03/03/12 new stop loss @ 39.45
02/29/12 triggered at $40.85
02/27/12 trade did not open. Adjusting entry strategy to buy HAIN at $40.85 with a stop loss at $38.95
02/25/12 trade did not open. Try again

Entry on February 29 at $40.85
Earnings Date 05/03/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 430 thousand
Listed on February 23, 2011


Rite Aid Corp. - RAD - close: 1.77 change: +0.08

Stop Loss: 1.54
Target(s): 1.90
Current Gain/Loss: + 6.6%
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/08 update: It was another strong session for RAD. Shares rallied to $1.81 intraday before settling with a +4.7% gain. The move was fueled by RAD's news that same-store sales grew +3.1%. I am raising our exit target from $1.85 to $1.90.

Small Positions

current Position: Long RAD stock @ $1.66

03/08/12 raise our exit target from $1.85 to $1.90

Entry on March 07 at $1.66
Earnings Date 04/12/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 8.7 million
Listed on March 06, 2011


Charles Schwab - SCHW - close: 13.92 change: +0.12

Stop Loss: 13.20
Target(s): 14.75
Current Gain/Loss: + 5.0%
Time Frame: 4 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/08 update: SCHW continue to show strength. The stock tagged a new multi-month high intraday at $14.15 but eventually settled with a +0.8% gain. I am raising our stop loss to $13.20.

I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
Our multi-week target is $14.75. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for SCHW is bullish with a $19.00 target.

current Position: Long SCHW stock @ $13.25

- or -

Long Apr $13 call (SCHW1221D13) entry $0.59

03/08/12 new stop loss @ 13.20
03/03/12 new stop loss @ 12.90

Entry on February 27 at $13.25
Earnings Date 04/16/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 15.9 million
Listed on February 25, 2011


Targa Resources - TRGP - close: 44.78 change: -0.10

Stop Loss: 43.75
Target(s): 48.00
Current Gain/Loss: - 0.6%
Time Frame: 4 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/08 update: TRGP is not cooperating. Shares can't seem to get past short-term resistance at their 10-dma. More conservative traders may want to abandon ship early. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

(small positions)

current Position: Long TRGP stock @ 45.05

Entry on March 07 at $45.05
Earnings Date --/--/-- (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 215 thousand
Listed on March 05, 2011


United States Oil Fund (ETF) - USO - close: 40.82 change: +0.21

Stop Loss: 39.90
Target(s): 43.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 1.4%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/08 update: The oil ETF bounced again but failed to breakout past short-term resistance at its 10-dma. Depending on the jobs number tomorrow and how the U.S. dollar reacts, we could see the USO retest the $40.00 level again or rally towards $42.

Earlier Comments:
We do not want to use the USO for long-term positions. This ETF is constantly rolling over its futures positions over time, which can have a negative impact on the share price. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for USO is bullish with a long-term $58.00 target.

(small positions!)

current Position: Long the ETF @ $40.25

- or -

Long April $40 call (USO1221D40) Entry $2.10

03/01/12 new stop loss @ 39.90
02/29/12 new stop loss @ 39.75
02/25/12 new stop loss @ 39.40

Entry on February 21 at $40.25
Earnings Date --/--/--
Average Daily Volume = 8.8 million
Listed on February 18, 2011


BEARISH Play Updates

Arch Coal Inc. - ACI - close: 11.87 change: +0.02

Stop Loss: 13.75
Target(s): 10.10
Current Gain/Loss: + 7.8%
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/08 update: So far so good. ACI is still not participating in the market's widespread bounce. Shares are hovering under the $12.00 level. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
Being short ACI is a popular trade with short interest already at 16.5% of the 210-million share float. That does raise the risk of a short squeeze should the stock (or industry) suddenly find strength.

Our multi-week target is $10.10. The $10.00 level could be psychological support.

(Small positions)

current Position: short ACI stock @ $12.87

- or -

Long Apr $12 PUT (ACI1221P12) Entry $0.49

03/05/12 new stop loss @ 13.75

Entry on March 05 at $12.87
Earnings Date 04/26/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 9.4 million
Listed on March 03, 2011


Halcon Resources - HK - close: 10.01 change: +0.03

Stop Loss: 10.70
Target(s): 8.00
Current Gain/Loss: unopened
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
03/08 update: HK saw an intraday bounce of +3.7% and then saw it fade. Shares closed almost unchanged on the session as investors sold into strength. This is a good sign for our bearish trade but the play is not open yet.

Earlier Comments:
There is already relatively high short-interest so I am suggesting small positions. We will use a trigger to open bearish positions at $9.75 with a stop loss at $10.70. Our target is $8.00. More aggressive traders could target the 100-dma instead.

Trigger @ 9.75

Suggested Position: short HK stock @ 9.75

Entry on March xx at $ xx.xx
Earnings Date 03/05/12 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.7 million
Listed on March 07, 2011


True Religion Apparel, Inc. - TRLG - close: 25.25 change: -0.30

Stop Loss: 26.55
Target(s): 22.25
Current Gain/Loss: + 0.4%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/08 update: TRLG opened at $25.48, spiked down toward $24.89, and then bounced as the rest of the market rallied. Naturally, with a positive market, I'm not too surprised to see TRLG bouncing near its October 2011 lows. I cautioned readers yesterday that traders may want to wait for a breakdown under $24.85 before initiating new positions. At this point readers may want to wait for a failed rally near what should be new resistance at the $26.00 level before considering positions.

Our multi-week target is $22.25. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for TRLG is bearish with a long-term $14.00 target.

current Position: short TRLG stock @ $25.48

- or -

Long Apr $25 PUT (TRLG1221P25) Entry $0.00

Entry on March 08 at $25.48
Earnings Date 04/26/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 924 thousand
Listed on March 07, 2011


CLOSED BULLISH PLAYS

American Intl. Group - AIG - close: 28.31 change: -1.14

Stop Loss: 28.40
Target(s): 34.50
Current Gain/Loss: - 6.8%
Time Frame: 4 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/08 update: News out last night that the U.S. government plans to sell $6 billion in AIG stock was not met with cheers. I cautioned readers that AIG would probably trade lower and hit our stop loss. Sure enough AIG gapped open lower at $28.59 and hit our stop loss at $28.40 within the first hour of trading.

- small positions -

closed Position: Long AIG stock @ $30.50 exit $28.40 (-6.8%)

- or -

Apr $30 call (AIG1221D30) Entry $1.88 exit $0.82 (-56.3%)

03/08/12 AIG hit our stop at $28.40
03/07/12 after the closing bell the U.S. gov. announces plans to sell $6 billion in AIG stock
03/06/12 warning! the breakout has reversed!
03/05/12 triggered at $30.50
03/03/12 adjust entry strategy to use a trigger at $30.50, stop loss @ 28.40
03/02/12 trade did not open.

chart:

Entry on March 05 at $30.50
Earnings Date 05/07/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 6.1 million
Listed on March 01, 2011


Jos. A. Bank Clothiers - JOSB - close: 51.52 change: -0.78

Stop Loss: 50.75
Target(s): 54.75
Current Gain/Loss: + 0.0%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/08 update: The action in JOSB was disappointing. The RLX retail index rallied to new highs. I would have expected JOSB to breakout from this three week consolidation. Instead shares of JOSB spiked lower and hits the 30-dma and 100-dma before bouncing. Shares were down thanks to rival Men's Warehouse (MW) lowering their guidance as they reported earnings.

I do think JOSB goes higher but unfortunately we had just raised our stop loss to $50.75 last night. The intraday low today was $50.54.

Earlier Comments:
Further gains could spark a short squeeze. The most recent data listed short interest at 19.8% of the 27.5 million-share float.

closed Position: long JOSB stock @ $50.75 exit $50.75 (-0.0%)

- or -

Mar $50 call (JOSB1217C50) Entry $1.90 exit $1.50 (-21.0%)*

03/08/12 stopped out at $50.75
*exit price on the option is an estimate. The option did not trade at the time of our exit
03/07/12 new stop loss @ 50.75, adjust exit to $54.75
03/06/12 readers may want to cut their losses on any March call positions now.
02/18/12 adjusted exit target to $54.00.
02/14/12 new stop loss @ 49.75

chart:

Entry on February 13 at $50.75
Earnings Date 03/29/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 301 thousand
Listed on February 11, 2011