Editor's Note:
We are suggesting an early exit in our ADM and TRGP trades. Meanwhile readers may want to go ahead and start taking profits in our RAD and SCHW trades.

Current Portfolio:


BULLISH Play Updates

The Hain Celestial Group - HAIN - close: 41.29 change: +0.67

Stop Loss: 39.75
Target(s): 44.75
Current Gain/Loss: + 1.0%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/10 update: HAIN was showing relative strength again on Friday. The stock rallied +1.6%. Shares are headed for resistance near $42.00 and a breakout past this level should herald a new leg higher. I am not suggesting new positions at this time. We can reconsider new trades on a breakout.

(small positions)

current Position: Long HAIN stock @ $40.85

03/05/12 new stop loss @ 39.75
03/03/12 new stop loss @ 39.45
02/29/12 triggered at $40.85
02/27/12 trade did not open. Adjusting entry strategy to buy HAIN at $40.85 with a stop loss at $38.95
02/25/12 trade did not open. Try again

chart:

Entry on February 29 at $40.85
Earnings Date 05/03/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 430 thousand
Listed on February 23, 2011


Rite Aid Corp. - RAD - close: 1.84 change: +0.07

Stop Loss: 1.63
Target(s): 1.90
Current Gain/Loss: +10.8%
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/10 update: RAD continues to outperform. Shares surged another +3.9% on Friday and hit $1.86 intraday. On Thursday night we adjusted our exit target from $1.85 to $1.90 so the trade is still open but readers may want to think about starting to take some money off the table. Obviously more aggressive traders could aim higher. The $2.00 level is probably round-number resistance. Please note I am raising our stop loss to $1.63.

Small Positions

current Position: Long RAD stock @ $1.66

03/10/12 new stop loss @ 1.63
03/08/12 raise our exit target from $1.85 to $1.90

chart:

Entry on March 07 at $1.66
Earnings Date 04/12/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 8.7 million
Listed on March 06, 2011


Charles Schwab - SCHW - close: 14.13 change: +0.21

Stop Loss: 13.40
Target(s): 14.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 6.6%
Time Frame: 4 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/10 update: SCHW continues to perform well. Traders bought the dip on Friday morning and the stock finally closed over resistance at the $14.00 level. This should bode well for this coming week. I am raising our stop loss up to $13.40. Please note that I am adjusting our exit target down to $14.50.

I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

current Position: Long SCHW stock @ $13.25

- or -

Long Apr $13 call (SCHW1221D13) entry $0.59

03/10/12 new stop loss @ 13.40, adjust exit target to $14.50
03/08/12 new stop loss @ 13.20
03/03/12 new stop loss @ 12.90

chart:

Entry on February 27 at $13.25
Earnings Date 04/16/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 15.9 million
Listed on February 25, 2011


The Toro Company - TTC - close: $68.79 change: +0.25

Stop Loss: 65.75
Target(s): 74.00
Current Gain/Loss: unopened
Time Frame: 4 to 8 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
03/10 update: The S&P 500 index opened higher on Friday but TTC did not. Shares gapped down at $68.19 but quickly rallied to a new relative high. I don't see any changes from my Thursday night comments and suggest we try again. The plan is to open bullish positions on Monday morning but only if both the S&P 500 index and TTC open positive. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for TTC is bullish with a $79.00 target.

Do not enter position unless TTC and the S&P 500 are both positive at the open

Suggested Position: buy TTC stock @ (the open)

03/10/12 try again.
03/09/12 trade did not open. TTC opened lower and then bounced

chart:

Entry on March xx at $ xx.xx
Earnings Date 05/21/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 330 thousand
Listed on March 08, 2011


United States Oil Fund (ETF) - USO - close: 41.09 change: +0.27

Stop Loss: 39.90
Target(s): 43.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 2.0%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/10 update: The price of oil and the USO have been holding up pretty well considering the big bounce in the U.S. dollar this past week. Now that concerns for Greece have temporarily eased that should allow for a rebound in the euro, which should push the dollar lower and allow for oil to rise even further. Plus, oil strength should be fueled by production cuts in several countries, the ongoing drama with Iran, and seasonal summer demand starting to ramp up.

Readers may want to wait and buy another dip (or bounce) near the $40.50-40.00 zone as your next entry point.

Earlier Comments:
We do not want to use the USO for long-term positions. This ETF is constantly rolling over its futures positions over time, which can have a negative impact on the share price. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for USO is bullish with a long-term $58.00 target.

(small positions!)

current Position: Long the ETF @ $40.25

- or -

Long April $40 call (USO1221D40) Entry $2.10

03/01/12 new stop loss @ 39.90
02/29/12 new stop loss @ 39.75
02/25/12 new stop loss @ 39.40

chart:

Entry on February 21 at $40.25
Earnings Date --/--/--
Average Daily Volume = 8.8 million
Listed on February 18, 2011


BEARISH Play Updates

Arch Coal Inc. - ACI - close: 12.08 change: +0.21

Stop Loss: 12.35
Target(s): 10.10
Current Gain/Loss: + 6.1%
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/10 update: Shares of ACI managed an oversold bounce on Friday in spite of a new downgrade. The intraday high was $12.27. We're going to play defensively here and lower our stop loss to $12.35. More aggressive traders may want to give ACI more room to move since the overall trend is down, especially after the breakdown below support near $13.00 a few days ago. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Earlier Comments:
Being short ACI is a popular trade with short interest already at 16.5% of the 210-million share float. That does raise the risk of a short squeeze should the stock (or industry) suddenly find strength.

Our multi-week target is $10.10. The $10.00 level could be psychological support.

(Small positions)

current Position: short ACI stock @ $12.87

- or -

Long Apr $12 PUT (ACI1221P12) Entry $0.49

03/10/12 new stop loss @ 12.35
03/05/12 new stop loss @ 13.75

chart:

Entry on March 05 at $12.87
Earnings Date 04/26/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 9.4 million
Listed on March 03, 2011


Halcon Resources - HK - close: 10.08 change: +0.07

Stop Loss: 10.70
Target(s): 8.00
Current Gain/Loss: unopened
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
03/10 update: HK is still hovering near psychological support at the $10.00 level. You'll notice on an intraday chart that the highs are getting lower. HK is setting up for another breakdown. I don't see any changes from my earlier comments.

Earlier Comments:
There is already relatively high short-interest so I am suggesting small positions. We will use a trigger to open bearish positions at $9.75 with a stop loss at $10.70. Our target is $8.00. More aggressive traders could target the 100-dma instead.

Trigger @ 9.75

Suggested Position: short HK stock @ 9.75

chart:

Entry on March xx at $ xx.xx
Earnings Date 03/05/12 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.7 million
Listed on March 07, 2011


True Religion Apparel, Inc. - TRLG - close: 26.22 change: +0.84

Stop Loss: 26.55
Target(s): 22.25
Current Gain/Loss: - 2.9%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/10 update: Ouch! The sharp oversold bounce on Friday (+3.3%) was unexpected. I should rephrase that. A bounce isn't surprising but the breakout past what should have been resistance near $26.00 is. More conservative traders may want to exit early. While aggressive traders may want to give TRLG more room to maneuver and actually widen their stop loss instead. Tonight I am not suggesting new positions and we are keeping our stop loss at $26.55.

current Position: short TRLG stock @ $25.48

- or -

Long Apr $25 PUT (TRLG1221P25) Entry $1.30

chart:

Entry on March 08 at $25.48
Earnings Date 04/26/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 924 thousand
Listed on March 07, 2011


CLOSED BULLISH PLAYS

Archer-Daniels-Midland Co - ADM - close: 31.13 change: +0.02

Stop Loss: 29.95
Target(s): 34.00
Current Gain/Loss: - 0.2%
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/10 update: We are giving up on ADM. The stock's bounce has stalled at the top of the gap down and short-term technical resistance near the 10-dma. I am suggesting an early exit now to limit any losses.

closed Position: Long ADM stock @ $31.21 exit $31.13 (-0.2%)

- or -

Mar $32 call (ADM1217C32) Entry $0.47 exit $0.07 (-85.1%)

03/10/12 exit early
03/07/12 new stop loss @ 29.95

chart:

Entry on February 15 at $31.21
Earnings Date 05/03/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 5.6 million
Listed on February 14, 2011


Targa Resources - TRGP - close: 44.81 change: +0.03

Stop Loss: 43.75
Target(s): 48.00
Current Gain/Loss: - 0.5%
Time Frame: 4 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
03/10 update: The market's major indices have seen a pretty decent bounce the last three days. yet TRGP can't get past short-term resistance near the $45.00 level. The larger trend is still bullish and readers may want to keep their positions active. I am suggesting we go ahead and exit early now to limit any losses.

(small positions)

closed Position: Long TRGP stock @ 45.05, exit $44.81 (-0.5%)

03/10/12 exit early

chart:

Entry on March 07 at $45.05
Earnings Date --/--/-- (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 215 thousand
Listed on March 05, 2011