Editor's Note:
WSM was stopped out. QSII hit our target.

Current Portfolio:


BULLISH Play Updates

The Home Depot - HD - close: 51.39 change: -0.57

Stop Loss: 50.95
Target(s): 54.75
Current Gain/Loss: - 1.6%
Time Frame: exit prior to the May 15th earnings report
New Positions: see below

Comments:
05/07 update: HD continues to dip. The stock is off more than a dollar in the last two days. Shares closed right on technical support at the 20-dma. A bounce from here can be used as a new bullish entry point. Any further weakness will probably hit our stop loss at $50.95. Just remember we plan to exit prior to the earnings report.

Suggested Position: Long HD stock @ $52.25

- or -

Long May $52.50 call (HD1219E52.5) Entry $0.85

05/05/12 new stop loss @ 50.95
04/27/12 triggered at $52.25

Entry on April 27 at $52.25
Earnings Date 05/15/12 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 8.6 million
Listed on April 26, 2011


U.S. Bancorp - USB - close: 31.84 change: +0.17

Stop Loss: 30.90
Target(s): 34.75
Current Gain/Loss: - 1.2%
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
05/07 update: Financial stocks were showing relative strength today. USB bounced off its morning lows near $31.50. I am cautiously bullish here. Given the market's weakness readers may want to wait for a dip near $31.00 and its 50-dma before considering new bullish positions.

Our target is $34.75 but more aggressive traders could aim higher.

current Position: Long USB stock @ $32.25

- or -

Long May $32 call (USB1219E32) Entry $0.70

05/01/12 triggered @ 32.25

Entry on May 01 at $32.25
Earnings Date 07/18/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 10.3 million
Listed on April 30, 2011


BEARISH Play Updates

Endo Pharma. - ENDP - close: 33.80 change: -0.04

Stop Loss: 35.05
Target(s): 30.25
Current Gain/Loss: unopened
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
05/07 update: I am surprised that ENDP did not show more weakness today. Shares merely churned sideways in a narrow range. The pattern is still bearish so we'll leave our trade unchanged.

The low on Wednesday was $33.52. I am suggesting a trigger to open bearish positions at $33.45. Our target is $30.50. More aggressive traders could aim lower. The Point & Figure chart for ENDP is bearish with a $28 target.

Trigger @ $33.45

Suggested Position: short ENDP stock @ (trigger)

- or -

buy the May $35 put (ENDP1219Q35)

Entry on May xx at $ xx.xx
Earnings Date 05/01/12
Average Daily Volume = 1.4 million
Listed on May 5, 2011


Greenhill & Co. - GHL - close: 36.90 change: +0.29

Stop Loss: 38.75
Target(s): 34.25
Current Gain/Loss: + 0.9%
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
05/07 update: The bounce continued for GHL and shares erased Friday's decline. The larger trend is still bearish but the oversold bounce may not be over yet. I would not be surprised to see a rise toward resistance near $38.00. Readers may want to wait for a failed rally near $38 as our next bearish entry point.

Earlier Comments:
We do want to keep our position size small since being short GHL is a popular trade. The most recent data listed short interest at 18.5% of the small 26.8 million share float. That does raise the risk of a short squeeze.
FYI: The Point & Figure chart for GHL is bearish with a $29 target.

(small positions)

current Position: short GHL stock @ 37.25

05/05/12 new stop loss @ 38.75
05/03/12 triggered @ 37.25

Entry on May 03 at $37.25
Earnings Date 07/18/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 508 thousand
Listed on May 2, 2011


Groupon, Inc. - GRPN - close: 10.46 change: +0.49

Stop Loss: 11.55
Target(s): 8.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 3.1%
Time Frame: exit prior to May 14th earnings report
New Positions: see below

Comments:
05/07 update: Shares of GRPN were upgraded before the opening bell this morning. That helped fuel some short covering and a spike to $10.80 intraday. The stock pared its gains by the closing bell. I cautioned readers last week that the $10.00 level is the spot to look for an oversold bounce. That's why I was suggesting more conservative traders take profits early.

The trend is still down but readers might want to consider a tighter stop loss. I am not suggesting new positions at this time. Remember this is an aggressive, higher-risk trade.

Earlier Comments:
Investors are unhappy with management, worried about earnings, and concerned that the upcoming lock up expiration could put even more pressure on the stock. The lock up period expires on June 1st (delayed from May 2nd). I do consider this an aggressive, higher-risk trade. The trend is down but GRPN is definitely oversold at this point. We want to use small positions to limit our risk. Readers may want to use options to limit their risk even further. We do not want to hold over the May 14th earnings report.

(Small positions)

Suggested Position: short GRPN stock @ $10.80

- or -

Long May $10 put (GRPN1219Q10) Entry $0.90

05/05/12 new stop loss @ 11.55. more conservative traders may want to take profits now (trade is up +7.7%).
Adjusted exit target to $8.50

Entry on May 02 at $10.80
Earnings Date 05/14/12 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.6 million
Listed on May 01, 2011


Hi Tech Pharmacal - HITK - close: 33.07 change: +0.60

Stop Loss: 34.65
Target(s): $30.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 3.9%
Time Frame: 2 to 4 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
05/07 update: HITK was showing some relative strength today with a +1.8% gain. This move was fueled by some positive analyst comments this morning. Technically today's move is a bullish engulfing candlestick reversal pattern. However, HITK failed to break resistance at its 10-dma so the bearish trend of lower highs remains.

I am lowering our stop loss down to $34.65. More conservative traders may want to take profits now or near the $32.00 level. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

current Position: short HITK stock @ $34.40

05/07/12 new stop loss @ 34.65
04/21/12 new stop loss @ 35.05, adjust exit target to $30.50
04/19/12 planned exit for our April put: $1.30 (-13.3%)
04/18/12 prepare to exit our April $35 puts at the close tomorrow
04/14/12 new stop loss @ 35.55
04/10/12 triggered at $34.40

Entry on April 10 at $34.40
Earnings Date 07/05/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 155 thousand
Listed on April 09, 2011


NetApp, Inc. - NTAP - close: 37.99 change: -0.43

Stop Loss: 39.65
Target(s): 34.50
Current Gain/Loss: unopened
Time Frame: exit prior to the late May earnings report
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
05/07 update: NTAP's rally attempt this morning ran out of steam and shares fell -1.1% by the close. Shares do look poised to breakdown soon. We will keep our trigger at $37.75 but if triggered we want to keep our position size small to limit our risk.

We do not want to hold over the late May earnings report (date still unconfirmed). FYI: The Point & Figure chart for NTAP is bearish with a $31 target.

Trigger @ 37.75 (small positions)

Suggested Position: short NTAP stock @ (trigger)

- or -

buy the May $37 PUT (NTAP1219Q37)

05/05/12 new stop loss @ 39.65, only use small positions.

Entry on May xx at $ xx.xx
Earnings Date 05/23/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 6.2 million
Listed on May 3, 2011


St. Jude Medical - STJ - close: 37.86 change: -0.09

Stop Loss: 39.35
Target(s): 34.25
Current Gain/Loss: - 1.1%
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
05/07 update: Monday was a quiet day for STJ. Shares churned sideways under the $38.00 level. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

Our target is $34.25. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for STJ is bearish with a $31.00 target.

current Position: short STJ stock @ $37.45

- or -

Long May $37.50 PUT (STJ1219Q37.5) Entry $1.20

05/05/12 new stop loss @ 39.35
04/23/12 new stop loss @ 40.05
04/23/12 triggered at $37.45

Entry on April 23 at $37.45
Earnings Date 04/18/12
Average Daily Volume = 5.1 million
Listed on April 21, 2011


Visteon Corp. - VC - close: 46.49 change: -0.07

Stop Loss: 48.25
Target(s): 40.50
Current Gain/Loss: unopened
Time Frame: 4 to 6 weeks
New Positions: Yes, see below

Comments:
05/07 update: It was also a quiet day for VC. Shares drifted sideways above support near the $46.00 level. There is no change from my weekend comments.

I am suggesting a trigger to launch bearish positions at $45.75. If triggered we will aim for the $40.50 mark. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for VC is bearish with a $35 target.

NOTE: VC does have options but the bid/ask spread seems too wide to trade.

Trigger @ 45.75

Suggested Position: short VC stock @ (trigger)

Entry on May xx at $ xx.xx
Earnings Date 05/02/12
Average Daily Volume = 513 thousand
Listed on May 5, 2011


CLOSED BULLISH PLAYS

Williams Sonoma Inc. - WSM - close: 37.95 change: -0.60

Stop Loss: 38.40
Target(s): 44.00
Current Gain/Loss: - 4.3%
Time Frame: exit prior to the mid May earnings report
New Positions: see below

Comments:
05/07 update: There are no surprises here. I warned readers that the recent action in WSM looked like a bearish reversal. Shares gapped open lower at $38.47 and quickly hit our stop loss at $38.40.

closed Position: buy WSM stock @ $40.15 exit $38.40 (-4.3%)

- or -

May $40 call (WSM1219E40) Entry $1.50 exit $0.46 (-69.3%)

05/07/12 stopped out at $38.40
05/05/12 WSM has produced a bearish reversal. Look to exit on a bounce but keep the stop at $38.40.
05/03/12 triggered at $40.15

chart:

Entry on May 03 at $40.15
Earnings Date 05/17/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.1 million
Listed on April 28, 2011


CLOSED BEARISH PLAYS

Quality Systems - QSII - close: 33.98 change: -3.01

Stop Loss: 39.15
Target(s): 34.50
Current Gain/Loss: +10.0%
Time Frame: exit prior to the late May earnings report
New Positions: see below

Comments:
05/07 update: Target achieved.

QSII underperformed the market today with a -8.1% plunge to new four-month lows. Oddly enough I could not find any news to explain the relative weakness. Our exit target was hit at $34.50.

closed Position: short QSII stock @ $38.33 exit $34.50 (+10.0%)

- or -

May $40 PUT (QSII1219Q40) Entry $1.90 exit $5.20 (+173.6%)

05/07/12 target hit at $34.50
05/05/12 Friday's action looks like a bearish reversal. The stock is poised to break support at $37.00 soon
05/02/12 Caution! QSII produced a bullish reversal candlestick today. Readers may want to exit early now. new stop loss at $39.15.

chart:

Entry on April 26 at $38.33
Earnings Date 05/24/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 476 thousand
Listed on April 25, 2011