Editor's Note:
Our bearish plays are definitely outperforming their bullish rivals. Our VTR trade was stopped out. We are removing VRSN.

Current Portfolio:


BULLISH Play Updates

ACI Worldwide, Inc. - ACIW - close: 44.82 change: +0.20

Stop Loss: 43.75
Target(s): 49.00
Current Gain/Loss: + 1.7%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/11/12 update: ACIW is still flirting with support near its 10-dma and the $44.00 level. If there is any further weakness here ACIW will likely hit our stop loss at $43.75.

current Position: Long ACIW stock @ $44.05

07/03/12 new stop loss @ 43.75
06/29/12 triggered @ 44.05

Entry on June 29 at $44.05
Earnings Date 07/26/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 318 thousand
Listed on June 27, 2011


Extra Space Storage - EXR - close: 30.70 change: -0.07

Stop Loss: 29.99
Target(s): 33.50
Current Gain/Loss: - 1.4%
Time Frame: exit prior to the late July earnings report
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/11/12 update: It was a relatively quiet day for EXR. Shares dipped to their rising 10-dma and bounced. If the market can turn positive then this move in EXR looks like a bullish entry point.

Our target is $33.50 but we'll plan to exit prior to the late July earnings report.

Suggested Position: Long EXR stock @ $31.15

07/09/12 triggered @ 31.15

Entry on July 09 at $31.15
Earnings Date 07/26/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.5 million
Listed on July 07, 2011


Threshold Pharmaceuticals - THLD - close: 7.90 change: -0.12

Stop Loss: 7.49
Target(s): 9.75
Current Gain/Loss: - 4.2%
Time Frame: exit prior to the very late July /early August earnings
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/11/12 update: Hmm... yesterday THLD produced a bearish reversal pattern. Today's decline should "confirm" this reversal. Yet traders were buying the dip at THLD's rising 10-dma (short-term support). I am cautious here. Readers may want to wait for a new close over $8.20 before considering new positions.

Earlier Comments:
There is a good chance THLD might see a short squeeze. The most recent data listed short interest at 18% of the 40.7 million-share float. Biotechs can be volatile stocks so readers may want to limit their position size to reduce risk. The 2012 high near $9.00 could be resistance but we're aiming for $9.75 (although we'll exit prior to the late July/early August earnings report).

Suggested Position: Long THLD stock @ $8.25

- or -

Long Aug $7.50 call (THLD1218H7.5) Entry $1.20

07/10/12 produced a bearish reversal candlestick. readers may want to raise their stop loss.
07/09/12 triggered @ 8.25

Entry on July 09 at $ 8.25
Earnings Date 07/30/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.6 million
Listed on July 07, 2011


BEARISH Play Updates

Aetna Inc. - AET - close: 37.76 change: +0.07

Stop Loss: 39.55
Target(s): 35.10
Current Gain/Loss: + 1.8%
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/11/12 update: Wednesday was a very quiet day for AET with the stock drifting sideways in a narrow range. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

FYI: The Point & Figure chart for AET is bearish with a $29 target.

current Position: short AET stock @ $38.45

- or -

Long Aug $38 PUT (AET1218T38) Entry $1.65

07/03/12 new stop loss @ 39.55
07/03/12 triggered @ 38.45

Entry on July 03 at $38.45
Earnings Date 07/31/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 6.0 million
Listed on June 30, 2011


First Solar Inc. - FSLR - close: 14.65 change: +0.47

Stop Loss: 15.51
Target(s): 12.00, 10.50
Current Gain/Loss: -1.7%
Time Frame: 4 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/11/12 update: Ouch! After yesterday's breakdown FSLR produced a big bounce today (+3.3%). I think it's just the volatile nature of this stock but the close back above the $14.50 level is a warning sign for the bears. Shares remain under their 50-dma and 10-dma for now.

Our first target is $12.00. Our longer-term, more aggressive target is $10.50.

Trigger @ 14.40

Suggested Position: short FSLR stock @ (trigger)

- or -

buy the Aug $14 PUT (FSLR1218T14) Entry $1.45

07/10/12 triggered @ 14.40

Entry on July 10 at $14.40
Earnings Date 08/02/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 7.3 million
Listed on June 30, 2011


Groupon, Inc. - GRPN - close: 7.77 change: -0.54

Stop Loss: 9.55
Target(s): 6.25
Current Gain/Loss: + 7.5%
Time Frame: exit prior to the early August earnings report
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/11/12 update: GRPN seems to be accelerating lower. Shares lost -6.49% today and closed at new lows. Readers may want to start lowering their stop loss. I am not suggesting new positions at this time.

*Small Positions*

current Position: short GRPN stock @ $8.40

- or -

Long Aug $8.00 PUT (GRPN1218T8) Entry $0.80

Entry on July 09 at $8.40
Earnings Date 08/08/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 8.1 million
Listed on July 07, 2011


Home Inns & Hotels Management - HMIN - close: 18.37 change: -0.51

Stop Loss: 21.05
Target(s): 18.00 & 15.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 6.3%
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/11/12 update: HMIN closed at new multi-year lows with today's -2.7% decline. I am not suggesting new positions at this time and readers may want to adjust their stop loss closer to the $20.00 mark.

FYI: The low today was $18.05. We have two targets. Our first target is $18.00. Our second target is $15.50.

Earlier Comments:
Readers may want to keep their position size small or use the options to limit their risk. The most recent data listed short interest at 17% of the 24.2 million share float.

Suggested Position: short HMIN stock @ $19.60

- or -

Long Aug $20 PUT (HMIN1218T20) Entry $1.70

07/10/12 triggered @ 19.60

Entry on July 10 at $19.60
Earnings Date 08/09/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 284 thousand
Listed on July 09, 2011


Riverbed Tech. - RVBD - close: 13.68 change: -0.15

Stop Loss: 15.51
Target(s): 12.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 4.6%
Time Frame: 3 to 6 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/11/12 update: After three strong down days in a row the decline today was a little bit slower. I don't see any changes from my prior comments. More conservative traders may want to start inching down their stops. Our target is $12.50 but more aggressive traders may want to aim lower.

current Position: short RVBD stock @ $14.50

- or -

Long Aug $14 PUT (RVBD1218T14) Entry $1.16

Entry on July xx at $ xx.xx
Earnings Date 07/24/12 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 3.4 million
Listed on July 09, 2011


TRW Automotive - TRW - close: 35.34 change: -0.04

Stop Loss: 37.20
Target(s): 30.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 0.1%
Time Frame: exit prior to the July 31st earnings report
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/11/12 update: TRW did not see a lot of follow through lower today. Shares tried to bounce but the bounce reversed under prior support and what should be new resistance near $36.00. I would still consider new bearish positions now at current levels. FYI: The Point & Figure chart for TRW is bearish with a $24 target.

current Position: short TRW stock @ $35.38

- or -

Long Aug $35 PUT (TRW1218T35) Entry $1.90

Entry on July 11 at $35.38
Earnings Date 07/31/12 (confirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 949 thousand
Listed on July 10, 2011


CLOSED BULLISH PLAYS

VeriSign, Inc. - VRSN - close: 42.94 change: -0.14

Stop Loss: 43.40
Target(s): 49.00
Current Gain/Loss: unopened
Time Frame: exit prior to the late July earnings report
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/11/12 update: We are giving up on VRSN. Shares have continued to drift lower. Recent bounce attempts have failed at the $44.00 level. Our new trigger to open positions was not hit at $44.35.

Trade did not open.

07/11/12 removed from the newsletter. Trade did not open
07/07/12 new entry point strategy: trigger @ 44.35, stop 43.40
07/05/12 trade did not open. No new trades until Monday. Look for a new entry strategy this weekend.

chart:

Entry on July xx at $ xx.xx
Earnings Date 07/26/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 2.0 million
Listed on July 03, 2011


Ventas, Inc. - VTR - close: 63.37 change: +0.44

Stop Loss: 62.45
Target(s): 64.50
Current Gain/Loss: + 4.6%
Time Frame: 6 to 8 weeks
New Positions: see below

Comments:
07/11/12 update: Shares of VTR briefly trade under its 10-dma again and dipped just low enough to hit our stop loss at $62.45 before bouncing back. Our trade is closed but readers may want to keep VTR on their watch list.

closed Position: Long VTR stock @ $59.71 exit $62.45 (+4.6%)

07/03/12 new stop loss @ 62.45
06/30/12 new stop loss @ 60.20
06/23/12 triggered on the gap down at $59.71
06/18/12 Entry point conditions were not met this morning.
Adjust strategy to buy a dip at $60.00.

chart:

Entry on June 25 at $59.71
Earnings Date 08/02/12 (unconfirmed)
Average Daily Volume = 1.9 million
Listed on June 16, 2011